A c tion | 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 10 Mar 2025 18:12:44 ET │ 16 pages Victory Giant Tech (300476.SZ) 1Q25 Stunning Beat Kicks Off a Landmark Year; Top Buy in AI Chain with TP Raised to Rmb90 CITI'S TAKE VGT released 1Q25 guidance on 10th March after market close, beat buy- side expectation by 47% and already achieved sell-side 2025 consensus of 38% at the mid-point. We believe the stunning beat comes from higher- than-expected AI-HDI profitability (fast yield rate ramp-up) and decent share allocation ( ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the chemical and steel industries, with specific recommendations for companies like Wanhua and Hualu in the chemical sector, and Hualin Steel in the steel sector [3][18][23]. Core Insights - The fiscal policy has shifted to a more aggressive stance, with special government bonds increasing from 1 trillion to 1.3 trillion and local special bonds rising from 3.9 trillion to 4.4 trillion, which is expected to stimulate economic growth [3][4]. - The chemical industry is anticipated to see a recovery in demand due to supportive policies for equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement, particularly benefiting sectors like automotive and home appliances [3][5]. - The steel industry is transitioning from a growth stabilization focus to supply-side reforms, with a projected reduction in crude steel production of approximately 50 million tons in 2025 [18][20]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry - Capital expenditures in the chemical sector have begun to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 18% reported in 2024, indicating a potential end to rapid capacity expansion by the second half of 2025 [7]. - Current valuations for leading chemical companies are low, with the CSI Chemical Index's price-to-book ratio at a 20% low since 2012, suggesting potential for significant performance recovery as market conditions improve [9]. - The refrigerant market is experiencing price increases due to supply constraints, with prices for certain products reaching 45,000 yuan per ton, supported by government policies promoting demand [10]. Steel Industry - The steel sector is expected to undergo significant production cuts, with a focus on reducing crude steel output by about 50 million tons in 2025, which is crucial for improving profitability in a currently low-margin environment [19][20]. - The report highlights that the steel industry is at a low point in terms of profitability and inventory levels, suggesting a high potential for recovery as production cuts are implemented [21]. - Recommended companies in the steel sector include Hualin Steel, Maanshan Steel, and Baosteel, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated supply-side reforms [18][23]. Logistics and Transportation - The government aims to reduce logistics costs through structural adjustments, promoting rail and water transport over road transport, which is expected to benefit companies in the logistics sector such as China Logistics and China Railway Special Cargo [24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of developing multi-modal transport systems to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, which will positively impact logistics companies [24]. Consumer and Tourism Sectors - The government's initiatives to boost consumer spending, particularly in tourism, are expected to benefit airlines and travel-related companies, with projected growth in passenger volumes for rail and air travel [25][26]. - Companies involved in the tourism and travel sectors, such as China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airport, are likely to see increased demand as consumer confidence improves [26].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the integrated machine and AI SoC sectors, particularly in the context of AI model deployment and local data security needs [3][11]. Core Insights - The demand for integrated machines has surged following the release of the Deep Seek AI model, with significant interest from government and enterprise sectors due to their data security requirements [3]. - The integrated machine is designed for AI model applications, effectively shortening deployment cycles and lowering barriers to entry, with a projected demand of 70,000 units in the government and enterprise sectors by 2025, translating to a market size of 54 billion yuan [3][11]. - The Deep Seek distilled small parameter models demonstrate excellent performance on terminal devices, achieving real-time question answering with a 1.5B model and suitable for text summarization and image description with 7B/8B models, requiring a minimum of 4-5GB of memory under INT4 quantization [3][5]. - Domestic computing power is expected to play a crucial role in the integrated machine sector, aligning well with mainstream downstream demands, although challenges in software-hardware collaboration remain [3][7]. - Quantization techniques are highlighted as a means to reduce AI hardware costs by converting model parameters from 16-bit floating-point to 8-bit integers, thus decreasing model size and computational complexity [3][8][9]. - The report notes a significant reduction in AI inference costs, which is driving the trend towards edge computing, with lightweight AI hardware gaining advantages in both edge and cloud environments [3][15]. - In the smart automotive sector, companies are integrating AI technologies to enhance smart cockpit functionalities, with BYD leading the way in adopting new AI chips in its vehicles [3][17]. - The domestic automotive chip sector is making strides, with companies like Yikatong collaborating with Volkswagen to export new SOC chips, indicating a growing acceptance of domestic chips in international markets [3][20]. Summary by Sections Integrated Machines - Integrated machines are tailored for AI model applications, providing a plug-and-play computing solution that meets high data security requirements for sectors like government and finance [4][10]. - The projected demand for integrated machines in the Chinese server market is expected to reach approximately 70,000 units by 2025, with a market potential of 54 billion yuan [11]. AI Model Performance - The Deep Seek distilled models are effective in reducing hardware resource requirements while maintaining performance, making them suitable for various applications [5][16]. Domestic Computing Power - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic computing power in the integrated machine sector, with a need to overcome challenges related to precision support in AI chips [7]. Cost Reduction Techniques - Techniques such as fixed-point quantization are crucial for lowering AI hardware costs and improving overall efficiency [8][9]. Smart Automotive Sector - The integration of AI in smart vehicles is on the rise, with significant advancements in automotive chip technology and collaborations with international partners [17][20].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the robotic vacuum cleaner industry, particularly for companies like Stone Technology and Ecovacs, due to their technological innovation and market strategies [3][23]. Core Insights - The robotic vacuum cleaner market is undergoing significant transformation driven by advancements in AI and robotics, enhancing product capabilities and expanding application scenarios [3][4]. - The global market size for robotic vacuum cleaners is estimated to be around $7 to $8 billion, with a notable 40% year-on-year growth in the domestic retail market, reaching approximately 20 billion yuan [3][6]. - Leading companies like Stone Technology are expected to see revenue growth of 40%-50% in 2025, with a projected revenue close to 18 billion yuan and a stable net profit margin of 10%-15% [3][8]. - The market is shifting from a price-driven strategy to a value-for-money approach, with innovations aimed at addressing consumer pain points [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The domestic market is dominated by key players such as Ecovacs, Stone Technology, and others, while the European market is a battleground for Chinese brands [5][16]. - In North America, the market is shared among Chinese brands and local competitors, with significant room for growth for Chinese brands in offline channels [5][16]. - The global cleaning appliance market is projected to grow by 4% in 2024, with robotic vacuum cleaners and stick vacuums showing strong performance [11]. Product Innovation - Innovations in robotic vacuum cleaners focus on enhancing navigation, obstacle avoidance, and cleaning efficiency, transitioning from mere tools to intelligent devices [12][18]. - The introduction of features like mechanical arms and advanced algorithms signifies a shift towards more sophisticated cleaning solutions [13][18]. Future Trends - The report anticipates a dual trend of domestic growth and international market penetration for the robotic vacuum cleaner industry in 2025, with a focus on innovation and value [17][21]. - Companies are expected to continue expanding their product offerings across various price segments to capture a broader market share [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on CITICS-A and CICC-H, while Hundsun also receives a Buy rating. East Money is rated as Sell [2][24][33]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in A-share average daily trading volume (ADTV), which has surged to Rmb 1.9 trillion, driven by AI and ETF trading [6][10]. - The forecast for full-year 2025 ADTV growth has been raised from 15% to 22% year-on-year, reflecting strong market momentum [10]. - The average year-to-date return for the three brokers covered is -3% for A-shares and +6% for H-shares, indicating potential upside [16][13]. Summary by Sections Brokers Earnings Forecasts - Earnings forecasts for brokers CICC, CITICS, and GFS have been adjusted, with expected average year-on-year revenue/profit growth of 22%/30% in 4Q24 and 14%/18% in 2025E [2][20]. - Target prices for A/H shares have been adjusted by an average of 11%/13% based on new estimates [2][24]. Market Drivers - The AI theme is expected to attract up to US$ 200 billion of net capital inflows into the Chinese market over the next 12 months, significantly boosting trading volumes [6][8]. - The proportion of ETFs in market trading volume has increased from 7% in 2022 to 15% currently, contributing to the rise in ADTV [8][9]. Company-Specific Insights - CITICS is expected to benefit more directly from the ADTV increase due to its higher retail business mix, with a new A-share target price of Rmb 34.15 [2][28]. - CICC is projected to see faster earnings growth due to its higher market elasticity, with a new H-share target price of HK$ 16.47 [2][29]. - Hundsun is anticipated to benefit from increased broker capital expenditures starting from 2H25, with a new target price of Rmb 36.63 [2][35]. - East Money's growth outlook is weak due to diluted fees from increased ETF trading, leading to a Sell rating and a new target price of Rmb 12.51 [2][33].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the antimony industry, highlighting significant demand growth and supply constraints, suggesting a bullish investment rating for antimony-related assets. Core Insights - Recent price increases for antimony are driven by improved exports, rising domestic demand, and a contraction in imported ore supply [2][3] - The domestic supply-demand gap for antimony is projected to reach 25,000 tons, representing 24% of domestic demand, necessitating a price adjustment to at least 294,000 RMB per ton to align with import costs [4][6] - Global antimony demand is expected to grow from 151,000 tons in 2024 to 165,000 tons in 2027, with a CAGR of 2.9%, while supply is anticipated to decline at a rate of -1.2% during the same period [9][10] Summary by Sections Recent Price Movements - Antimony prices have risen due to three main factors: improved exports, increased domestic demand from flame retardants and photovoltaic sectors, and reduced imports [2][3] - Exports of antimony oxide have shown significant recovery, with December exports reaching 1,571 tons, a 102% month-on-month increase [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic supply of antimony is constrained, with total supply estimated at 80,000 tons against a demand of 110,000 tons, leading to a significant shortfall [4][6] - The report emphasizes that even with maximum export recovery, a supply gap of 10,000 tons remains in overseas markets, indicating persistent tightness in the global antimony market [5] Long-term Industry Outlook - Antimony is recognized as a strategic metal with emerging demand in new applications and safety stock considerations [9] - The report highlights the importance of antimony in various sectors, including flame retardants (50% of consumption) and photovoltaic glass (24% of consumption) [9] - The global antimony supply is projected to face increasing pressure, with China's production expected to decline from 180,000 tons in 2008 to 60,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of -7% [10] Company Performance - Companies like Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining, and Huaxi Nonferrous are positioned as key players in the antimony market, with significant resources and strategic plans to enhance their market positions [14]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for various sectors, particularly in technology and construction, with a focus on government support and policy measures to stimulate growth [2][3][19]. Core Insights - The government has set a growth target of approximately 5% for 2025, with a CPI target of around 2%, reflecting a pragmatic approach to economic management [2]. - Fiscal policy is becoming more proactive, with an increase in the budget and local government special bonds, aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market [3][5]. - Emphasis on new productivity represented by AI and other emerging technologies, with a focus on modernizing the industrial system and promoting large-scale application demonstrations of new technologies [3][6][30]. - The resilience of Chinese exports is highlighted, with stable global market shares and an increase in the share of intermediate goods, indicating continued global reliance on China [7]. - Capital market reforms are deepening, with measures to attract long-term funds into the market, including increased allocations from insurance and public funds [10][19]. - The report outlines specific measures for the real estate sector, including demand stimulation and supply adjustments, to support market stabilization [23][21]. Summary by Sections Economic Goals and Policies - The government aims for a 5% growth target and a 2% CPI target, with fiscal policies becoming more aggressive, including a budget increase to 1.6 trillion yuan and an increase in local government special bonds to 4.4 trillion yuan [2][3]. Real Estate Market - The report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market through various measures, including issuing special bonds to support local governments and expanding the use of special loans [5][21][23]. Emerging Industries - The focus is on AI, biomanufacturing, quantum technology, and 6G as key areas for future growth, with government support for large-scale applications of new technologies [6][30]. Export Resilience - Despite global supply chain disruptions, Chinese exports have shown resilience, maintaining stable market shares and increasing the share of intermediate goods [7]. Capital Market Reforms - The report discusses measures to deepen capital market reforms, including attracting long-term funds and optimizing stock issuance and merger regulations [10][19]. Construction and Building Materials - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds, which is expected to improve the order and payment situation for construction enterprises [15][16]. Technology and Innovation - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation, particularly in AI and related fields, and emphasizes the need for core technology self-reliance [30][32].

Asia Pacific Equity Research 04 March 2025 Humanoid Robot Expert Call Takeaways (Part II): Commercialization is closer than you think We hosted an expert call today (Mar. 4) with Dr. Nicholas Nadeau, a distinguished figure in the fields of AI and robotics. Dr. Nadeau, with his extensive experience as a former CTO and founder in high-impact tech sectors, has been at the forefront of developing humanoid robots and integrating AI into practical applications. His tenure as CTO of 1X (formerly Halodi Robotics) s ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the high-end equipment sector, particularly focusing on specific companies and segments that are expected to benefit from market trends and technological advancements [2]. Core Insights - The mechanical sector is experiencing significant trends influenced by market conditions and economic changes, with a focus on smart manufacturing and emerging technologies [3]. - Companies like Bafang and Jiechang are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their low valuations and underestimated growth prospects [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain dynamics and the recovery of demand in various segments, including electric bicycles and composite materials [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Electric Assist Bicycle Industry - The inventory cycle in the electric assist bicycle industry is nearing its end, with Bafang expected to see significant revenue growth in 2025 and 2026 due to increased demand from both new and existing customers [4][5]. Composite Material Industry - The industrialization of composite materials is accelerating, with major manufacturers placing significant orders. Capacity utilization is expected to reach full capacity by the second half of 2025, presenting investment opportunities in equipment and material companies [4][6]. Robotics and Smart Manufacturing - Ailite's strategic shift towards humanoid robot ecosystem development is noted, with a focus on its progress in smart manufacturing and the potential for a second growth curve [4][7]. - The report suggests that investors should pay attention to companies involved in humanoid robotics, particularly Ailite, as it navigates its strategic adjustments [8]. Engineering Machinery Sector - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a flat upward cycle, with state-owned enterprises improving profitability through reforms. Companies like LiuGong are expected to benefit from these changes [4][21][24]. - The demand for engineering machinery is influenced by the real estate cycle, with expectations of a gradual recovery in demand [22]. Military Industry - The military sector is transitioning towards a focus on delivery assurance, with increased production tasks in areas such as aviation and missiles. The demand for materials is expected to grow significantly [4][27][29]. - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements in the military sector, particularly in unmanned and intelligent systems, as key areas for future investment [29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in high-end equipment manufacturing with strong competitive positions and high barriers to entry, such as Yingjian Technology and Feilihua [30]. - Short-term investment strategies should target companies in the aerospace supply chain that are expected to show early recovery in demand and financial performance [30].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for stocks over commodities and bonds, suggesting a preference for equities in the current market environment [5]. Core Insights - Recent market style rotation has shifted towards small-cap and growth styles, influenced by various macroeconomic factors and market sentiment [3]. - The industry rotation model recommends sectors such as steel, media, integrated communications, retail, and pharmaceuticals, based on liquidity and research performance [4]. - Active quantitative stock selection strategies have shown varied performance, with small-cap strategies outperforming others [6][10]. Summary by Sections Market Style Rotation - The current market style is leaning towards small-cap growth, with macro indicators slightly favoring small caps and market sentiment benefiting growth styles [3]. - Key drivers include a decline in new investor numbers and macroeconomic indicators [3]. Recommended Industries - The recommended sectors for March include steel, media, integrated communications, retail, and pharmaceuticals, selected based on an optimized industry rotation model [4]. - Media, integrated communications, and pharmaceuticals excel in liquidity, while steel scores high in research performance [4]. Asset Allocation Views - The report suggests a hierarchy of asset allocation: stocks are preferred over commodities, which in turn are preferred over bonds [5]. - The overall sentiment towards stocks is optimistic, supported by macroeconomic indicators, although caution is advised due to potential resistance in major indices [5]. Active Quantitative Stock Selection Strategies - The small-cap digging strategy has shown the best performance, with a 9.9% return in February, significantly outperforming small-cap indices [6]. - The investment behavior quality evaluation strategy has also performed well, yielding a 9.9% return in February and over 10% year-to-date [7][8]. Growth Strategy Performance - The ChatGPTBoost growth selection strategy yielded a 4.5% return in February, with a slight excess return over equity fund indices [9]. - The strategy focuses on identifying stocks with improving profitability and sustainable ROE [9]. Future Strategy Recommendations - Future recommendations emphasize the high valuation and market participation of small-cap and growth strategies, suggesting continued focus on these areas [11]. - Specific strategies to watch include small-cap digging and XGBoost for growth selection [11].