Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to XCMG with a 12-month target price of RMB 8.40, representing a potential upside of 12.8% from the current price of RMB 7.45 [4][5][8] Core Views - XCMG is expected to achieve **high single-digit revenue growth** in 2025, with domestic revenue growing at a single-digit rate and overseas revenue maintaining double-digit growth [1] - The company anticipates **improved profitability** in 2025 due to better revenue mix and cost control, leading to a year-on-year increase in net profit margin [1] - XCMG plans to continue reducing off-balance sheet receivables in 2025, indicating a focus on financial health [1] - Overseas inventory levels are reported to be healthy, with an average of around **1 month of inventory** [1] Domestic Market Outlook - Domestic excavator sales are expected to grow at a **double-digit rate** in 2025, driven by infrastructure projects and improved operating hours [2] - Small excavator sales are projected to maintain strong growth, while medium excavator sales are expected to improve [2] - However, demand for concrete machinery, cranes, and aerial work platforms is expected to remain weak in 2025 [2] Overseas Market Outlook - Overseas revenue is forecasted to grow at a **double-digit rate** in 2025, following a similar performance in 2024 [3] - The fastest growth is expected in **Europe, America, and Australia**, primarily due to a low base effect [3] - Asia, particularly Indonesia, is also expected to contribute to strong growth, while Latin America may see a slowdown but still achieve double-digit growth [3] - Mining machinery and aerial work platforms are likely to experience robust growth, with mining machinery benefiting from increased market share due to competitive pricing [3] Financial Metrics - The company's valuation is based on a **12.0x 2025E PE ratio**, with a target price of RMB 8.40 [4] - XCMG's market capitalization is RMB 88.0 billion (USD 12.0 billion), with a P/B ratio of 1.5x and net debt/EBITDA of 0.5x as of 12/24E [5] - The company's EBIT margin is expected to improve from 7.6% in 2021 to 12.9% by 2028E, reflecting stronger profitability [7] Company Background - XCMG is a leading brand in China's construction machinery industry, specializing in products such as cranes, earthmoving machinery, and road construction equipment [9] - The company holds the **top market share** in domestic sales of truck cranes and truck-mounted cranes and is one of the largest exporters of construction machinery in China [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 23.50 per share, based on a DCF valuation method [4][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a recovery in the olefin price spread in Q4 2024, while the coking segment's profitability declined due to significant price drops in coking coal and coke [2][3]. - The Inner Mongolia olefin project is progressing as planned, with the second and third production lines expected to start trial runs by the end of January and March 2025, respectively [3][10]. - The Xinjiang 4 million ton olefin project is still in the preliminary stages, awaiting government approval [3][10]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 37.213 billion in 2024 to RMB 59.389 billion in 2025, reflecting a significant increase [7]. - The net profit is expected to rise from RMB 7.520 billion in 2024 to RMB 13.337 billion in 2025, indicating strong growth potential [7]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from RMB 1.03 in 2024 to RMB 1.82 in 2025 [7]. Market Data - As of January 15, 2025, the company's stock price was RMB 16.68, with a market capitalization of RMB 122 billion (approximately USD 16.7 billion) [5][24]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of RMB 17.84 to RMB 13.16 [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 23x for 2024 and 13x for 2025, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [4][7]. - The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) is projected to improve from 15.2% in 2024 to 22.5% in 2025 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longbai Group with a target price of RMB 24.30 per share [4][5]. Core Insights - The titanium dioxide market remains under pressure due to anti-dumping tax policies and weak seasonal demand, leading to losses in the sponge titanium and new energy materials segments [2][3]. - Longbai Group plans to achieve titanium concentrate production capacity of 2.48 million tons and iron concentrate capacity of 7.6 million tons by the end of 2025, with tight supply expected to keep titanium concentrate prices fluctuating at high levels [3][4]. - The company continues to export titanium dioxide to Europe and Brazil despite the imposition of anti-dumping duties, with some marginal producers reducing output or halting production [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In Q4, Longbai Group's titanium dioxide sales were approximately 300,000 tons, with total annual sales nearing 1.25 million tons. The market faced challenges from anti-dumping taxes and seasonal demand weakness, resulting in a slight loss during exports to the EU [2][3]. Production Capacity and Strategy - The company anticipates a titanium concentrate output of 1.3 to 1.4 million tons in 2024, with Q4 prices experiencing seasonal fluctuations. The sponge titanium segment saw a slight increase in sales to 20,000 tons, but price declines led to losses [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Longbai Group show a steady increase from RMB 26.765 billion in 2023 to RMB 36.886 billion by 2028, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 3.226 billion in 2023 to RMB 5.095 billion in 2028 [7]. - The report estimates earnings per share (EPS) to be RMB 1.45 for 2024, increasing to RMB 2.14 by 2028 [7]. Valuation - The target price of RMB 24.30 per share is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method, maintaining a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.4% [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 24.00 per share [5][6][25]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a strong performance in Q4 due to favorable price differentials in carbon products and the contribution from the newly operational butanol plant [3][4]. - The company is progressing with its capacity expansion plans, including the construction of new production facilities for various chemical products expected to come online by 2025 [4]. - The overall pricing for the company's main products has improved compared to early 2023, which is expected to positively impact net profits [3]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company expects Q4 performance to be supported by good price differentials in carbon products and rising prices for acrylic acid due to supply tightness from maintenance of some production capacities [3]. - The second butanol production unit is set to contribute to profitability starting in Q4 [3]. Capacity Expansion - The company has initiated operations for its 80,000-ton butanol project in Q4 2024 [4]. - By 2025, the company plans to launch new capacities including 100,000 tons of acrylic acid, 150,000 tons of superabsorbent polymer (SAP), 160,000 tons of polymer emulsion, and 80,000 tons of neopentyl glycol [4]. Financial Projections - The report projects annual capital expenditures to remain between RMB 6 billion to 7 billion over the next three years [2]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 41.487 billion in 2023 to RMB 52.437 billion in 2025, with net profit increasing from RMB 4.789 billion to RMB 6.482 billion in the same period [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 12-month target price of Rmb 41.00, while the current stock price is Rmb 37.80 [2]. Core Insights - The company expects a revenue growth of approximately 10% year-on-year for 2024, with traditional lithium battery equipment underperforming due to demand-side issues, contributing around Rmb 200 million in revenue [5]. - For 2025, the company projects a revenue growth of 20% year-on-year, driven by a 20%-30% increase in lithium battery equipment revenue and a 50% increase in consumables [5]. - The company anticipates the landing of approximately 10GWh project orders in 2025, with a projected order value of Rmb 300-400 million per GWh [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from Rmb 525 million in 2023 to Rmb 1.871 billion by 2028, with a significant increase in net profit from Rmb 66 million in 2023 to Rmb 622 million in 2028 [4]. - The company expects an improvement in gross margin in 2025, primarily driven by a better revenue mix [5]. Market Position - The company has been steadily increasing its market share in the lithium battery sector, despite facing challenges in traditional equipment sales [5]. - Consumables are expected to contribute Rmb 1.5 billion in revenue, reflecting a 50% year-on-year growth [5]. Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 32.7x, decreasing to 7.1x by 2028, indicating a potential for significant valuation improvement [4]. - The company’s market capitalization is currently Rmb 4.43 billion (approximately US$0.60 billion) [2]. Analyst Insights - Analysts have rated the industry structure as stable, with a score of 3 out of 5, indicating no significant changes expected in the regulatory environment [11]. - The company is viewed as having positive catalysts in the near term, with expected project orders and revenue growth [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock with a 12-month target price of Rmb36.00, while the current stock price is Rmb31.46 [3][22]. Core Insights - The company expects shipment growth in 2025 to exceed 20% compared to 2024, driven by a 10-20% demand increase in the European electric vehicle market due to carbon policy impacts and a doubling of new model launches from North American automotive clients [1][6]. - The company achieved a market share increase in the global ternary cathode market from 10% in 2023 to 14.4% in Q3 2024, with overseas customers accounting for 20% of sales [6][12]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with a new factory in Poland expected to reach a capacity of 20,000 tons within 6-8 months after opening [6][12]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections show a significant increase from Rmb10.259 billion in 2021 to an estimated Rmb41.154 billion by 2028 [5]. - The net profit is expected to rise from Rmb911 million in 2021 to Rmb2.034 billion by 2028, indicating strong growth potential [5]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from Rmb2.03 in 2021 to Rmb4.20 by 2028 [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading supplier of high-nickel cathode materials, primarily serving major clients like CATL and others [8][12]. - The company plans to leverage its status as the largest supplier to CATL to capture more market share, especially in overseas markets [12]. - The company is also focusing on solid-state battery technology, which is expected to provide a long-term competitive advantage [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 56.00, indicating an expected return exceeding market expectations by more than 6% [4][5]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a single-digit revenue growth in 2025, with the excavator segment expected to achieve double-digit growth, while the non-excavator segment may face significant pressure [1][2]. - The company is establishing new production capacity in Indonesia, expected to commence operations by March 2025, primarily to supply hydraulic cylinders for excavators to Chinese OEMs [1]. - The company is considering setting up a factory in Europe, with a specific location to be determined in 2025 [1]. - The Mexican factory for pumps and valves has commenced production, with plans for hydraulic cylinders to start production in Q1 2025, contingent on U.S. tariff decisions [1]. Summary by Sections Excavator Segment - The company is optimistic about the excavator segment, projecting double-digit revenue growth in 2025, driven by increased overseas orders and improved market share in excavator pumps and valves, which currently stands at 50%-60% domestically [2]. Non-Excavator Segment - The non-excavator segment is expected to face revenue pressure due to declines in high-altitude and shield machines. However, revenue from agricultural machinery, marine engineering, and industrial non-excavator products may increase, partially offsetting the declines [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company show an increase from RMB 9.509 billion in 2024E to RMB 10.956 billion in 2025E, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 2.598 billion in 2024E to RMB 2.991 billion in 2025E [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of Rmb30.00 based on a current stock price of Rmb20.00, reflecting a potential upside of 50% [3][5][7]. Core Insights - The company is currently trading at 17x 2025E PE and 9x EV/EBITDA, indicating that the market has largely priced in the challenges related to retail gas ASP and the stalled progress of the gas power merger [3]. - The company expects a sales growth of approximately 20% year-on-year in 2025, primarily driven by volume, with limited downside for ASP [6]. - The management anticipates that the new projects will contribute significantly to the company's operational scale, with a total oxygen production capacity of 270,000 m3/h expected by the end of 2024 [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections show a steady increase from Rmb11.878 billion in 2021 to Rmb26.273 billion by 2028, with a peak expected at Rmb22.978 billion in 2027 [4]. - EBITDA margins are projected to improve from 9.6% in 2024 to 14.4% by 2028, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4]. Market Dynamics - The company has secured new projects with a total oxygen production capacity of 360,000 m3/h for 2024, compared to 230,000 m3/h in 2023, with a significant portion coming from chemical clients [6]. - The management noted a slight decline in pipeline gas utilization since Q1 2024, although it remains above the minimum take-or-pay levels [6]. Equipment Orders - The order size for 2024 is expected to be around Rmb5.5-6 billion, slightly down from Rmb6.5 billion in 2023, with a shift towards smaller-scale equipment orders that typically yield higher margins [6]. Dividend and Cash Flow - The projected dividend per share is expected to stabilize around Rmb0.48 in 2024 and 2025, with a slight increase to Rmb0.54 by 2028 [4]. - The net debt is projected to increase from Rmb2.92 billion in 2023 to Rmb3.47 billion in 2025, indicating a focus on growth investments [4]. Analyst Insights - Analysts expect that the company's strategic focus on pipeline gas and retail gas markets will provide additional revenue and margin opportunities in the medium to long term [6]. - The report highlights that the company’s penetration into the retail bottled gas sector, although slow, could lead to further revenue and margin improvements [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home with a target price of Rmb 38.50, corresponding to a 16.5x PE for 2025E [5][6]. Core Insights - Haier Smart Home has shown strong sales momentum continuing into 2025, with management guiding for revenue growth in the mid to high single digits, supported by domestic subsidies and product upgrades [2]. - The company expects a continued increase in operating profit margins, with a projected decrease in SG&A expenses by 50 basis points in 2025 [2]. - Domestic sales are anticipated to grow in double digits, particularly for the Casarte brand, benefiting from higher-than-expected subsidies [2]. - The company is addressing competitive threats from Xiaomi by launching more competitive SKUs and enhancing retail efficiency while maintaining its premium strategy [4]. - Concerns regarding U.S. tariffs have led management to evaluate shifting production from China to Vietnam and Thailand, which may require additional capital expenditure [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from Rmb 261.428 billion in 2023 to Rmb 351.350 billion by 2028, reflecting a steady increase [8]. - EBITDA is expected to rise from Rmb 18.669 billion in 2023 to Rmb 33.968 billion by 2028, indicating improved profitability [8]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase from Rmb 16.597 billion in 2023 to Rmb 29.709 billion by 2028 [8]. Market Position - Haier Smart Home is recognized as one of the largest home appliance manufacturers globally, with a diverse product range including refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners [11]. - The company aims to become a leading provider of smart home solutions, leveraging its R&D capabilities and a network connecting suppliers and users [11]. Valuation Metrics - The report uses a DCF valuation method with a WACC of 11.4%, projecting a 13% CAGR in earnings from 2024 to 2026 [5]. - The current market price of Rmb 26.87 suggests a potential upside of 43.3% to the target price [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hisense Home Appliances with a target price of RMB 42.00, implying a potential upside of 32.3% from the current price of RMB 31.75 [4][5][9]. Core Insights - The outlook for 2025 is positive, driven by domestic growth supported by government subsidies for replacing old appliances, which is expected to accelerate compared to 2024. The management anticipates double-digit growth in exports, although at a slower pace than in 2024 [1][2]. - The central air conditioning (CAC) segment is projected to achieve positive sales growth, contrary to market expectations of a decline due to macroeconomic uncertainties. The management believes that product upgrades and supply chain optimizations will enhance gross margins [1][2]. - The company is expected to be a major beneficiary of the domestic subsidy program for replacing old appliances, which will positively impact demand and product structure upgrades [1][2]. Summary by Sections Export Outlook - Management remains optimistic about the export prospects for 2025, particularly for split air conditioners, driven by demand from emerging markets. The impact of U.S. tariffs is minimal, as they account for less than 5% of the company's revenue, and the company can adjust its production capacity flexibly [3]. Central Air Conditioning (CAC) Sales - The management forecasts mid-single-digit growth for CAC sales in 2025, with the consumer channel (2C) expected to see high single-digit growth due to subsidies. However, this may be offset by declines in the decorated housing channel, which accounted for 17% of total HVAC sales in Q424 [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 85.6 billion in 2023 to RMB 102.87 billion in 2025, with net profit expected to increase from RMB 2.837 billion in 2023 to RMB 3.879 billion in 2025 [7]. - The report indicates a steady improvement in profitability metrics, with the EBITDA margin expected to rise from 4.6% in 2023 to 5.1% in 2025 [7].