证券研究报告 | 2025年05月27日 杭州银行（600926.SH） 转债触发强赎，高成长优质行将迎价值重估 |  | 公司研究·公司快评 | |  | 银行·城商行Ⅱ | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田维韦 | 021-60875161 | | tianweiwei@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520030002 | | 证券分析师： | 王剑 | 021-60875165 | | wangjian@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980518070002 | 事项： 2025 年 5 月 26 日晚间，杭州银行公告：公司股票自 2025 年 4 月 29 日至 2025 年 5 月 26 日期间已有 15 个交易日的收盘价不低于"杭银转债"当期转股价格 11.35 元/股的 130%（含 130%，即不低于 14.76 元/ 股），根据《杭州银行股份有限公司公开发行 A 股可转换公司债券募集说明书》的相关约定，已触发"杭 银转债"的有条件赎回条款。 评论： ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.663 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 41%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 4.401 billion yuan, down 50% year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q4 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.522 billion yuan, a decrease of 34% year-on-year but an increase of 64% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.33 billion yuan, down 59% year-on-year but up 46% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. - The company’s potassium fertilizer business generated 11.713 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 20% year-on-year, while lithium carbonate revenue was 3.075 billion yuan, down 52% year-on-year [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 15.134 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross profit of 7.848 billion yuan, representing a gross margin of 52% [15]. - The potassium fertilizer segment accounted for 77% of total revenue, while lithium accounted for 20% [12]. - The average selling price for potassium chloride was approximately 2,507 yuan per ton, down 4% year-on-year, while the average selling price for lithium carbonate was about 74,000 yuan per ton, down 56% year-on-year [12]. Market Outlook - The potassium fertilizer business is expected to maintain strong profitability, providing stable cash flow. The lithium business is projected to ramp up production with a 40,000-ton lithium salt project expected to commence in 2025 [12]. - The entry of a state-owned enterprise, WISCO, is anticipated to enhance the company's long-term development potential through system upgrades and resource integration [12]. Shareholder Returns - The company has a robust cash position and stable earnings from its potassium fertilizer business, leading to expectations for future dividends [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability from lithium battery structural components and has a promising outlook for its robotics business [4][6]. - The company has established a solid foundation in precision manufacturing and is expanding into the emerging field of humanoid robotics, with successful product testing and small-scale deliveries [4][6][58]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, Zhenyu Technology, started as a precision mold manufacturer and has evolved to focus on precision lithium battery structural components and electric motor cores, while also venturing into humanoid robotics [4][19]. - The company was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2021 and has been actively expanding its business since then [4][19]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 6,019 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.63%, but a net profit of 43 million yuan, down 58.73% year-on-year due to various operational challenges [4][25]. - The company expects significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 9,114 million yuan in 2025, 11,454 million yuan in 2026, and 14,051 million yuan in 2027 [1][12]. Market Position and Growth - The company has maintained a stable market share in the lithium battery structural component sector, with revenue from this segment increasing from 23.7 billion yuan in 2021 to 57.5 billion yuan in 2024 [7][43]. - The global market for lithium battery structural components is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 557.4 billion yuan by 2025 [42][43]. Robotics Business Development - The company established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Martin Robotics, in 2024 to focus on the robotics sector, achieving breakthroughs in actuator transmission modules and drive modules [4][58]. - The humanoid robotics market is expected to grow substantially, with projections indicating a market size of 642.22 billion yuan by 2030 [54][56]. Profitability and Valuation - The company anticipates a rebound in profitability, with net profits expected to reach 4.09 billion yuan in 2025, corresponding to a PE ratio of 32 times, which is above the average for comparable companies [4][12]. - The report highlights the company's ongoing efforts to improve cost efficiency and maintain competitive pricing in the face of market challenges [11][31].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the price spread of MDI has improved, and a joint venture has been established with Kuwait Petrochemical [5][7] - The company is positioned as a typical example of development driven by technological innovation in the chemical industry, aiming to become a global chemical giant [4] - The short-term profitability of the company is primarily influenced by product price spreads, while long-term growth is dependent on the ability to innovate and launch milestone products [5] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - As of May 26, 2025, the company's stock price is 55.41 CNY, with a market capitalization of approximately 173.97 billion CNY [3] - The company's performance relative to the CSI 300 index shows a decline of 37.1% over the past 12 months [3] Price Spread and Profitability - The MDI price spread index for Q2 2025 is at an average of 70.11, down 7.35 from Q1 2025, indicating a position in the historical 5.83 percentile [6][25] - The expected net profit for Q2 2025 is projected to be 3.4 billion CNY [6] Key Projects and Developments - A joint venture agreement was signed with Kuwait Petrochemical on April 25, 2025, with an investment of 638 million USD for a 25% stake in a subsidiary [7][35] - Several projects are in progress, including expansions in MDI and HDI production capacities, with expected revenues from new projects totaling 476 billion CNY in 2025 [37] Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 197.6 billion CNY, 230.5 billion CNY, and 251.8 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 14.3 billion CNY, 18.4 billion CNY, and 22.3 billion CNY [11][13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company Core Viewpoints - The company has raised a total of 2.07 billion yuan through equity financing since its listing, while the actual controller has cashed out over 300 million yuan, with only 140 million yuan distributed as dividends [1] - The actual controller's recent agreement to transfer shares is seen as an attempt to attract strategic investors and optimize the shareholding structure, despite the company's stock price fluctuations [1][8] - The company has a long-standing partnership with Huawei, with sales to Huawei accounting for approximately 17% of total revenue in 2024 [12][15] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, design, production, and sales of electromagnetic shielding materials, thermal management materials, base station antenna components, protective functional components, and lightweight materials [11] - The company has been a supplier to Huawei since 1997, with significant sales in various sectors including mobile phones, laptops, servers, and new energy vehicles [12] Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.9% from 2019 to 2024, with Q1 2025 revenue growth at 14.7%, totaling 1.18 billion yuan [16][17] - The main revenue contributors are thermal management materials, electromagnetic shielding materials, and lightweight materials, which accounted for 37%, 26%, and 14% of revenue in 2024, respectively [20] Market Trends - The demand for the company's products is driven by the growth in consumer electronics, communication, and new energy sectors, with revenue shares of 38%, 27%, and 35% in these areas in 2023 [15] - The AI server liquid cooling business is gaining attention, with the market for liquid cooling servers expected to grow at a CAGR of 46.8% from 2024 to 2029, reaching a market size of 16.2 billion USD by 2029 [26] Profitability and Capital Operations - Despite revenue growth, the company's profit margins have not kept pace, with a significant drop in gross margins observed since 2019 [32] - The company has engaged in frequent capital operations, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest and the effectiveness of these transactions [37][38] - The company has been criticized for its inability to generate sufficient cash flow from operations, relying heavily on capital markets for funding [76][78] Competitive Landscape - The company faces increasing competition in the thermal management and electromagnetic shielding markets, with a low industry concentration and numerous players [62] - The company holds a market share of less than 10% in the thermal materials sector, indicating room for growth but also highlighting competitive pressures [63] Shareholder Returns - The company has distributed only 140 million yuan in dividends since its listing, while the actual controllers have cashed out over 300 million yuan through share reductions [84]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Guanghui Energy [4] Core Views - The company's performance has been significantly impacted by falling natural gas prices and a sharp decline in sales, leading to a substantial decrease in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025 [1][3] - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to maintain high dividend payouts, enhancing shareholder returns [11] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, Guanghui Energy reported revenue of CNY 36.44 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 40.72%, and a net profit of CNY 2.96 billion, down 42.60% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 8.90 billion, a decline of 11.34% year-on-year, with a net profit of CNY 0.69 billion, down 14.07% [1] - The coal business showed resilience with a significant increase in production and sales, despite a decrease in coal prices [2] - The natural gas segment faced challenges with a 52.95% drop in sales volume, although production increased by 17.58% [3] Business Segment Analysis - **Coal Business**: The coal segment saw a production increase of 78.52% in 2024, reaching 39.83 million tons, and sales increased by 52.39% to 47.23 million tons [2] - **Natural Gas Business**: The average transaction price for LNG in China fell by 7.2% to CNY 4,512.57 per ton, with sales volume dropping significantly [3] - **Coal Chemical Business**: The company achieved a methanol production increase of 18.43% in 2024, with total coal chemical product output rising by 7.36% [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain high dividend yields, with projected net profits of CNY 2.88 billion, CNY 3.47 billion, and CNY 3.96 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11] - New project developments in coal and coal chemical sectors are anticipated to contribute to long-term growth [10]

证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 多元金融 国网英大(600517) 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 27 日 "金融+制造"双主业驱动，有望受益电网投资加速 ——国网英大深度报告 qiushiliang@stocke.com.cn 分析师：刘巍 执业证书号：S1230524040001 liuwei03@stocke.com.cn 投资要点 ❑ 国家电网下属子公司，增资扩股布局多元金融 公司是国网英大国际控股集团子公司，同时也是国家电网孙公司。公司前身为上 海置信电气股份有限公司，2020年 2月完成重大资产重组，注入信托、证券、期 货等金融业务。2024年，公司实现营业收入 112.88亿元，同比增长 3.60%，归属 于上市公司股东的净利润 15.74 亿元，同比增长 15.39%。2024年，英大信托、英 大证券、英大碳资产、置信电气净利润分别为 17.8、1.8、0.1、1.5 亿元。 ❑ 碳资产：碳市场运行框架逐步建立，公司碳资产业务有望持续高增 "十四五"是碳达峰的关键期和窗口期，随着碳市场建设顶层设计加速完善，市场 交易量价齐升。英大碳资产成立于 2013 年 11 月，2021 年 1 月划 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Xiamen Xiangyu, is positioned as a leading player in the bulk supply chain industry, focusing on expanding its supply chain services and achieving stable growth through industry chain extension [5][15]. - The company's revenue and net profit have shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +20.1% and +17.3% respectively from 2011 to 2024, although there were fluctuations in 2023 and 2024 due to industry chain impacts [5][21]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the company's performance due to a series of incremental policies that are expected to improve industrial enterprise efficiency [5][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiamen Xiangyu is transforming into a global supply chain service provider, having established a core business in bulk supply chain management and comprehensive logistics since its listing in 2011 [16]. - The company has expanded its core supply chain systems to include agricultural products, metals, plastics, and more, while also enhancing its global presence [16][21]. Industry Analysis - The bulk supply chain industry is shifting from traditional trading models to comprehensive service providers, with profitability increasingly derived from service revenues rather than price differences [29][32]. - The industry is experiencing a rise in concentration, with the top five companies (CR5) increasing their market share from 4.81% in 2021 to 5.26% in 2024, despite a slight decline in operating volume due to macroeconomic factors [37][41]. Company Advantages - The company is continuously upgrading its supply chain service model and expanding its product categories, which is expected to lead to steady growth in overall business volume and profit margins [44][48]. - The logistics segment is also growing, with the logistics revenue reaching 9.422 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33.0% [7][8]. - The company has entered the manufacturing sector, particularly in shipbuilding, which provides a stable profit base and enhances its ability to withstand market fluctuations [8][9]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 1.741 billion, 2.018 billion, and 2.337 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of +22.7%, +15.9%, and +15.8% [9][10]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same period are 11.08, 9.55, and 8.25, indicating potential investment value [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.02 CNY based on a 23x valuation multiple [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has a strategic plan for rapid growth, aiming to double its performance by 2026 through new product launches and channel optimization [1][15]. - The quail egg segment is expected to regain growth through adjustments and new product introductions, while the small fish products will benefit from increased market coverage [16][2]. - The company is well-positioned in the fish product market, with a projected sales revenue growth of 17.4% and a net profit growth of 14.3% in 2025 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company focuses on leisure food, developing three main categories: fish products, poultry products, and bean products, with notable brands including "Jinzai" and "Xiaodan Yuanyuan" [5][17]. Growth Drivers - The company has a strong product development capability, with successful launches like the "soft-boiled quail egg" and "fresh bean curd" [1][15]. - The small fish segment has maintained a leading market position, with revenue expected to reach 15.33 billion CNY in 2024, continuing a trend of double-digit growth [28][34]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts sales revenue of 2,831.65 million CNY in 2025, with a net profit of 332.99 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 14.3% [3][2]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.74 CNY, with a dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.5 [2][3]. Market Position - The company holds a 13.95% market share in the quail egg segment, positioning it as a leading player despite competitive pressures [44][46]. - The overall market for leisure fish products is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of 300 billion CNY by 2025 [34][2]. Channel Strategy - The company is expanding its traditional and emerging channels, including membership supermarkets and online platforms, to enhance market penetration [54][56]. - The diversification of channels is expected to support stable growth, with significant investments in e-commerce and live streaming sales [56][55].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Xiamen Xiangyu, is positioned as a leading player in the bulk supply chain industry, focusing on expanding its supply chain services and achieving stable growth through industry chain extension [5][15]. - The company has shown steady revenue and net profit growth from 2011 to 2024, with compound annual growth rates of +20.1% and +17.3%, respectively. However, it experienced a decline in net profit in 2024 due to industry chain impacts [5][21]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the company's performance as industrial enterprises benefit from a series of incremental policies aimed at restoring efficiency [5][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiamen Xiangyu is transforming into a global supply chain service provider, having shifted its focus from real estate to bulk commodity supply chain management and logistics since its establishment in 1992 [16]. - The company has developed a comprehensive supply chain service model that includes procurement, distribution, logistics, and supply chain finance, aiming to become a world-class supply chain service enterprise [15][16]. Industry Analysis - The bulk supply chain industry is transitioning from a traditional trading model to a comprehensive service model, with profitability increasingly derived from service revenues rather than price differences [29][32]. - The industry is experiencing a rise in concentration, with the market share of the top five companies (CR5) increasing from 4.81% in 2021 to 5.26% in 2024, indicating a trend towards greater market dominance by leading firms [37][40]. Company Advantages - The company is expanding its supply chain service categories, which is expected to lead to steady growth in overall business volume and profit margins per ton [44]. - Xiamen Xiangyu's logistics business is also growing, with a reported revenue of 9.422 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.0% [7][8]. - The company has entered the manufacturing sector, particularly in shipbuilding, which provides a stable profit base and enhances its ability to withstand market fluctuations [8][9]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects the company's net profit for 2025 to be 1.741 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of +22.7%, +15.9%, and +15.8% for the following years [9][10]. - The estimated price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.08, 9.55, and 8.25, respectively, indicating potential investment value [9][10].