2026 年 2 月 2 日 公司研究 4Q25 盈利承压，关注高端化+全球化推进 ——长城汽车（601633.SH、2333.HK）2025 年业绩快报点评 要点 2025 年业绩快报披露，4Q25 低于预期：2025 年公司营业收入同比+10.2%至 2,227.9 亿元，归母净利润同比-21.7%至 99.1 亿元，扣非后归母净利润同比 -36.5%至 61.6 亿元；其中，4Q25 公司收入同比+15.5%/环比+13.0%至 692.1 亿元，归母净利润同比-43.5%/环比-44.4%至 12.8 亿元，扣非后归母净利润同 比-49.4%/环比-63.9%至 6.8 亿元。我们测算，2025 年公司扣非后单车盈利同 比-40.8%至 0.47 万元，4Q25 扣非后单车盈利同比-52.1%/环比-68.2%至 0.17 万元。4Q25 盈利环比下降主要受年终奖计提+报废税递延导致。 高端化战略成果显现，品牌价值稳步提升：2025 年公司汽车销量同比+7.3%至 132.4 万辆，新能源汽车销量同比+25.4%至 40.4 万辆（渗透率同比+4.4pcts 至 30.5%）；4Q25 公司汽车销量同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 16 million to 20 million yuan in 2025, marking a turnaround from previous losses [1]. - The recovery in demand for pesticide intermediates has significantly improved the company's performance, particularly through the operational improvements at its subsidiary, Fujian Gaobao, which has reduced its losses substantially [2]. - The company plans to raise 186 million yuan through a private placement to expand its production capacity in the new materials sector, specifically for BPEF and BPF products, which are widely used in various high-tech applications [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 18 million, 75 million, and 110 million yuan respectively, with a notable increase in revenue expected [4][5]. - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 1,576 million yuan in 2025 to 2,129 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][9]. Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The gross margin is expected to improve from 15.5% in 2025 to 19.1% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to decrease from 410 in 2025 to 67 by 2027, suggesting a more favorable valuation as profitability improves [12]. Operational Developments - The company is enhancing its production capabilities to meet the growing demand in the new materials sector, which is expected to drive future growth [3]. - The operational efficiency improvements and strategic adjustments in product structure and sales strategies are anticipated to contribute to double-digit revenue growth in 2025 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [5]. Core Insights - The company has reported better-than-expected earnings, with significant contributions from its shipbuilding and diesel generator segments, which provide earnings elasticity. The dividend yield is seen as a protective moat for investors [5]. - The shipbuilding segment is expected to benefit from a decline in steel prices, with projected revenue growth of 14% in 2025, followed by a slight decrease in 2026 and a rebound in 2027 [5]. - The diesel generator segment shows strong market competitiveness, with ongoing projects for major clients like China Mobile, indicating robust demand and performance stability [5]. - The company has a diversified business model and a global operational network, which helps mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations and trade policy changes [5]. - The projected dividend yield for 2025 and 2026 is approximately 3.7% and 4.1%, respectively, based on a maintained payout ratio of 42% [5]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue is forecasted to be 117,803 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1,355 million yuan, reflecting an 18% increase [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.04 yuan for 2025, with a gradual increase to 1.23 yuan by 2027 [4]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 7.4% in 2025 to 7.8% in 2027, indicating better cost management and pricing power [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 15.9% in 2025, slightly decreasing to 15.5% by 2027, which reflects stable profitability [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant decline in the company's net profit, projecting a drop of 66.31% to 71.82% for 2025, with non-recurring net profit expected to fall by 79.36% to 85.43% [2][4]. Core Insights - Despite the negative earnings forecast, the stock price surged, closing at a 7.95% increase on January 29, suggesting a market reaction that diverges from fundamental performance [5][6]. - The company's financial performance has been on a downward trend since reaching historical peaks in 2022, with a net profit margin expected to plummet from 21.4% in 2022 to just 1.0% in 2025 [7][8]. - The stock has been in a prolonged downtrend for three years, but recent technical analysis suggests a potential reversal as a long-term bottom structure has formed [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company has experienced continuous revenue and net profit declines since 2022, with a cumulative loss of 50 million in the first three quarters of 2025 despite a single-quarter profit in Q3 [7][10]. - The gross margin for the company's main product, coking coal, has deteriorated significantly, with losses exceeding 240 RMB per ton produced [15][16]. Industry Context - The company's performance is closely tied to the steel industry, which has seen reduced demand and profitability, impacting coking coal procurement and pricing [20][23]. - The average market price for coking coal is expected to decline by 18% in 2025 compared to 2024, while the price of raw materials has not decreased at the same rate, leading to a significant compression of profit margins [20][21]. - The steel industry's production targets are set for reduction, and the current economic environment, particularly in real estate, is not expected to improve significantly in the short term [25].

| | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 23,862 | 38,337 | 90,981 | 145,304 | | 同比增速(%) | 122.6% | 60.7% | 137.3% | 59.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 5,171 | 10,889 | 28,081 | 47,186 | | 同比增速(%) | 137.9% | 110.6% | 157.9% | 68.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 4.65 | 9.80 | 25.27 | 42.47 | | 市盈率(倍) | 139 | 66 | 26 | 15 | | 市净率(倍) | 37.7 | 24.6 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 30 日收盘价 证 券 研 究 报 告 中际旭创（300308）2025 年业绩预告点评 强推（维持） 业绩符合预期，1.6T 有望快速放量 当前价：649.00 元 [ReportFinancialIndex ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has released its 2025 earnings forecast, indicating significant improvements in same-store sales that exceed market expectations [4][5] - The company is expected to benefit from a model iteration of discount supermarkets, which will enhance store efficiency and support future growth through store openings and potential H-share listings [6] - The company’s profitability is driven by three main factors: short-term fee optimization, medium-term management integration, and long-term development of proprietary brands [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2025, the company anticipates a revenue midpoint of 14.84 billion yuan (26.6% year-on-year growth) and a net profit midpoint of 460 million yuan (119.6% year-on-year growth) [7] - The company expects to achieve a revenue midpoint of 51.4 billion yuan for the year 2025 (59.0% year-on-year growth) and a net profit midpoint of 1.32 billion yuan (348.0% year-on-year growth) [7] - The company’s revenue from its wholesale business is projected to grow by 28.4% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with a significant acceleration in store openings [7] - The company plans to add approximately 1,600 new stores in Q4 2025, with a total of 4,000 new stores expected by the end of 2025, reaching a total of 18,000 stores [7] Profitability Forecast - The company’s net profit margin for Q4 2025 is expected to be between 2.8% and 3.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0 to 1.6 percentage points [7] - The projected net profit margin for the wholesale business in Q4 2025 is expected to be between 5.3% and 6.6%, which is an increase of over 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company’s overall net profit margin is expected to continue its upward trend, with a forecasted increase in the proportion of net profit attributable to the parent company to approximately 55-60% in Q4 2025 [7] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 51.55 billion yuan, 65.31 billion yuan, and 77.36 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 59.5%, 26.7%, and 18.5% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.33 billion yuan, 2.12 billion yuan, and 2.91 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 351.3%, 60.1%, and 37.0% [8] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 29, 18, and 13 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong growth outlook for the company, with projected net profit for 2025 expected to reach between 1.1 billion to 1.2 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 79%-95% [1] Core Insights - The company's growth is primarily driven by a significant improvement in its domestic insulin business, which saw a revenue increase of 45.6% in the first three quarters of 2025, characterized by both volume and price increases [2][4] - The successful selection of all six products in the 2024 national procurement for insulin has led to a more than 30% increase in procurement volume compared to the previous round, providing a substantial boost in sales certainty [4] - The company's gross margin has stabilized above 73% over the past two years, indicating effective cost control and product structure optimization, allowing it to convert procurement pressure into market share and profit [4][6] Domestic Business Performance - The company has captured a 30% market share in the third-generation insulin procurement, positioning itself as the leading domestic player, second only to Novo Nordisk, amidst a trend of domestic products replacing imports [6] - The company’s products are now available in over 40,000 medical institutions, with rapid growth particularly in grassroots markets [6] International Expansion - International sales revenue reached 350 million in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 45.5% year-on-year increase [7] - A significant 10-year technology transfer and supply agreement with Brazil, valued at no less than 3 billion, positions the company as the sole approved solution for Brazil's national public health system [7][9] - The company is transitioning from merely exporting products to a more sophisticated model of technology output, which includes local production technology transfer and talent development [9] Research and Development Focus - The company is heavily investing in R&D, with R&D expenses accounting for 13.4% of revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 [10] - Key products in development include GZR4 (ultra-long-acting insulin), which is in Phase III clinical trials and aims to revolutionize patient treatment habits, and GZR18 (GLP-1 dual-week formulation), which has received FDA approval and shows promising weight loss results [11][12] - The company is also advancing GZR101 (premixed dual insulin) into Phase II clinical trials, aiming to provide more convenient treatment options [12] - The successful launch of either GZR4 or GZR18 could elevate the company from an "insulin expert" to a "comprehensive solution provider for metabolic diseases" [14]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company, highlighting its transition from a technology-focused entity to a profitable business model [1][9]. Core Insights - The company, iFlytek, is expected to achieve a net profit of between 785 million to 950 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% to 70% [1][2]. - The non-GAAP net profit is projected to be between 245 million to 301 million yuan, with a growth rate of 30% to 60% compared to the previous year [1][2]. - Operating cash flow is anticipated to exceed 3 billion yuan, with total sales collections surpassing 27 billion yuan, marking a historical high for the company [2][5]. Performance Recovery - iFlytek has demonstrated a "V-shaped" recovery in its performance, rebounding from a net profit decline in 2024 of 507 million yuan to a projected median net profit of 870 million yuan in 2025 [3][4]. - The company has shifted from reliance on government subsidies to a self-sustaining profit model, indicating a significant improvement in operational quality [4][5]. Growth Drivers - The "Xunfei Spark" large model has become a core growth engine for the company, with significant achievements in the government and enterprise market, securing contracts worth 2.316 billion yuan [6][7]. - The model's capabilities in various fields, including education and healthcare, have positioned it as a leader in the market, with substantial project wins that exceed the combined total of competitors [7][9]. - In the consumer market, the AI learning machine has maintained its position as the top-selling product in its category for three consecutive years, contributing significantly to revenue growth [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 1.26 to 1.3 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.09% to 6.93%. The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between -175 million and -160 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses by 42.27% to 47.22% compared to the previous year [5]. - The company is focusing on its "intelligent computing transformation" strategy, which has shown significant results, particularly in the intelligent computing cloud business, which is expected to become a core driver of revenue growth [9]. - The company has made strategic adjustments in its IDC business, focusing on high-power intelligent computing centers while reducing low-margin traditional IDC operations to enhance overall operational quality [9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.26 billion, 1.8 billion, and 2.39 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of -169 million, -49 million, and 86 million yuan [7][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be -0.34, -0.10, and 0.17 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10]. - The company’s price-to-book (P/B) ratios are projected to be 16.94, 18.11, and 16.16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10].

执业证书编号：S0740523020004 Email：hejy02@zts.com.cn 汽车零部件 Email：tangsu@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 185.97 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 35.39 | | 市价(元) | 79.99 | | 市值(百万元) | 14,876.01 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 2,830.52 | 海安集团俄罗斯建厂点评：巨胎龙头海外建厂 0-1，在手订单饱 满、全球拓展加速 海安集团（001233.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2026 年 02 月 02 日 | 评级： | 增持（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：何俊艺 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 2,251 | 2,300 | 2,200 | 2,468 | 3,4 ...