2025 年 9 月 1 日 公司研究 TapTap 商业化效率提升，关注《伊瑟》国服表现 ——心动公司（2400.HK）25H1 业绩点评 要点 事件：25H1 公司实现收入 30.82 亿元人民币（yoy+38.8%），增长主要系游戏 及 TapTap 双轮驱动；实现毛利润 22.53 亿元，同比增长 50.5%，对应毛利率 为 73.1%，主要由于《仙境传说 M：初心服》在海外市场表现强劲，按净额法 入账的游戏收入占游戏运营收入的比重同比提升 9.3pct 至 13.9%，导致游戏业 务毛利率同比提升 8.1pct 至 68.0%，TapTap 业务毛利率同比提升 1.1pct 至 83.6%；实现归母净利润 7.55 亿元，同比增长 268.0%，对应净利率 24.5%。 《仙境传说 M：初心服》带动游戏收入超预期，关注《伊瑟》国服上线表现。 25H1 游戏业务收入 20.71 亿元（yoy+39.4%），其中游戏运营收入 20.45 亿元： 1、网络游戏收入 19.82 亿元（yoy+39.0%），主要来自自研游戏《仙境传说 M： 初心服》《心动小镇》《火炬之光：无限》的收入增加；网络游戏的平均 M ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 200.0 HKD per share [3][11]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on two historical strategic opportunities: cloud computing and AI, with a strong commitment to increasing investments in these areas. The revenue from cloud services reached 334.0 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year growth of 25.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1 percentage points [7][11]. - The integration of the original Taotian Group and the local life group into the China e-commerce group reflects the company's strategy to concentrate on consumer-facing e-commerce and instant retail, as well as AI and cloud services [7][11]. - The company has seen significant improvements in its two main business lines, with AI cloud revenue contributing over 20% to external revenue and experiencing triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters [7][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 10049 billion CNY, 11256 billion CNY, and 12129 billion CNY for FY2026-2028, with adjusted net profits of 1405 billion CNY, 1866 billion CNY, and 2091 billion CNY respectively [8][11]. - The company reported a CMR of 892.5 billion CNY for FY26Q1, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, driven by commission adjustments and AI-driven improvements in site penetration [7][12]. Business Segments - The cloud business is expected to continue its rapid growth, with capital expenditures reaching 387.6 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 219.8% [7][11]. - The food delivery segment has shown high operational efficiency, with monthly active users exceeding 300 million and weekly orders maintaining above 80 million, indicating a narrowing gap with competitors [7][11]. Valuation - The report estimates the company's market value at 34772 billion CNY, corresponding to a per-share value of 200.00 HKD, based on a comprehensive valuation of its various business segments [8][22].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for 361 Degrees, with a target price of HKD 7.20, indicating a potential upside of 13.2% from the closing price on August 29, 2025 [6][68]. Core Views - 361 Degrees is positioned to benefit from both its adult and children's apparel segments, capitalizing on the growth in sports and outdoor activities, as well as the opportunities presented by domestic brands [6][68]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 113.4 billion, RMB 126.6 billion, and RMB 140.8 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 12.5%, 11.7%, and 11.2% respectively [6][68]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - 361 Degrees was established in 2003 and focuses on the research, design, production, and brand management of sports footwear and apparel. It has a strong presence in the domestic market with a total of 5,750 adult apparel stores and 2,548 children's apparel stores in China as of 2024 [10][11]. Adult Apparel Business - The adult apparel segment achieved revenue of RMB 73.8 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 19.1%. The product mix remains balanced, with footwear accounting for 58.1% and apparel for 41.9% of the segment [6][22]. - The company is enhancing its supply chain efficiency and embracing smart manufacturing, which includes a focus on advanced supply chain systems and 5G smart factories [6][50]. Children's Apparel Business - The children's apparel segment is experiencing rapid expansion, with the number of stores increasing from 1,797 in 2017 to 2,548 in 2024, representing a CAGR of 5.1%. The average store size has also increased, enhancing the shopping experience [54][56]. - The company is leveraging technology to enhance product offerings, introducing innovative footwear and apparel designed for children, which includes collaborations with popular IPs to create appealing designs [62][63]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts that the overall revenue for 361 Degrees will grow significantly, with net profits expected to reach RMB 12.9 billion, RMB 14.7 billion, and RMB 16.6 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 12.5%, 13.4%, and 13.0% respectively [6][68]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable, with expectations of 41.1%, 41.3%, and 41.5% for the years 2025-2027 [6][68]. Valuation and Comparison - The report employs a relative valuation method, comparing 361 Degrees with other domestic sports brands like Anta, Li Ning, and Xtep. The target P/E ratio for 361 Degrees is set at 10.5 times for 2025 [67][69].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Resources Beverage (02460.HK) with a target price of 15 HKD [1][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.206 billion HKD for H1 2025, a decrease of 18.52% year-on-year, and a net profit of 805 million HKD, down 28.63% year-on-year. The report highlights that the company is facing temporary operational pressure but emphasizes the importance of operational adjustments and beverage product development for long-term growth [1][8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 13.521 billion HKD, with a decline to 11.872 billion HKD in 2025E, followed by a recovery to 13.069 billion HKD in 2026E and 14.052 billion HKD in 2027E [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from 1.637 billion HKD in 2024 to 1.286 billion HKD in 2025E, before rising to 1.620 billion HKD in 2026E and 1.907 billion HKD in 2027E [3][14]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.54 HKD, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.7 [3][14]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio is 44.65%, indicating a moderate level of debt [4]. - **H1 2025 Performance**: - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 46.67%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 13.26%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [8][9]. Business Segment Performance - **Beverage and Packaging Water**: - The packaging water segment saw a revenue decline of 23.11% to 5.251 billion HKD, while the beverage segment grew by 21.28% to 955 million HKD in H1 2025. The report notes that the company is focusing on product series such as "Benqingrun" and "Moli Water" to drive growth [8][9]. - **Cost Management**: - The report indicates that while raw material prices have decreased, the overall revenue decline has weakened scale effects, leading to increased costs in sales and marketing efforts [8][9]. Strategic Outlook - The report suggests that despite the current operational challenges, the long-term growth logic remains intact. The company is focusing on inventory optimization, channel adjustments, and the introduction of new beverage products to enhance its market position [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of production efficiency improvements and the development of new beverage lines as key factors for future profitability [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's solid waste management business shows steady growth, and the cement segment is experiencing a performance reversal, leading to positive free cash flow [1] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting an increase in expected profits due to improved performance in its core waste incineration operations and the indirect holding in Conch Cement [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 8,033 million, with a decline to 6,271 million in 2024 and further to 6,147 million in 2025, before a slight recovery in subsequent years [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 2,464 million in 2023 to 2,020 million in 2024, but is forecasted to rise to 2,361 million in 2025 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.37 in 2023, dropping to 1.13 in 2024, and recovering to 1.32 in 2025 [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 6.91 in 2023, increasing to 8.43 in 2024, and then decreasing to 7.21 in 2025 [1][8] Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 30.86 billion, a slight decline of 1.55% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.33% to 12.86 billion [7] - The waste disposal segment reported operational revenue of 21.07 billion, up 7.61%, while construction revenue fell significantly by 54.53% to 2.74 billion [7] - The energy efficiency equipment segment saw a revenue decline of 22.26% to 2.59 billion, while the new energy business experienced a substantial increase of 191.65% to 3.10 billion [7] Cash Flow and Dividends - The company reported a positive free cash flow of 0.4 billion in the first half of 2025, a significant improvement from -8.6 billion in the first half of 2024 [7] - The company anticipates an increase in dividend potential due to improved free cash flow and dividends from Conch Cement [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [3][12]. Core Insights - The company has experienced rapid sales growth following the resolution of capacity constraints, with sales for the first eight months of 2025 exceeding both the report's and market expectations. The management has raised sales guidance, reflecting strong confidence in clinical data and commercialization capabilities [2][7]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 84.00, representing a potential upside of 32.2% from the current price of HKD 63.55 [1][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 1,611 million, with a significant increase to RMB 2,951 million in 2026 and RMB 4,408 million in 2027, reflecting a growth trajectory [6][13]. - The company reported a net loss of RMB 160 million for 2025, with expectations of turning profitable by 2026 with a net profit of RMB 325 million [6][13]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 70% in 2025, improving to 73% in 2026 and 74.5% in 2027 [6][13]. Sales and Market Dynamics - The company’s flagship product, Nanfukang, has seen sales growth of 81% year-on-year, with total sales expected to reach RMB 12-14 billion for the year, and potentially doubling to RMB 24-26 billion in 2026 [7][8]. - The company is also advancing its pipeline with promising clinical data, particularly for its third commercialized product, which is anticipated to achieve peak sales of RMB 5 billion [7][8]. Valuation and Future Outlook - The report utilizes a DCF model to arrive at a target price of HKD 84.00, based on optimistic revenue forecasts and improved operating expense ratios [8][12]. - The company is expected to achieve operational breakeven in the second half of 2025, earlier than previously anticipated [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 1H25 increased by 9.5% year-on-year to 1.49 billion RMB, while net profit rose by 41.6% to 150 million RMB, indicating strong performance driven by robust offline demand [1][7]. - The management has adjusted the 2025 revenue growth forecast to 10%-15% from the previous 25%, citing changes in the macro environment [1][7]. - The company is expected to return to a revenue growth rate of over 20% in 2026 [1]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, the company is projected to achieve sales revenue of 3.445 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.0% [2][8]. - Adjusted net profit for FY25E is estimated at 460 million RMB, with a growth rate of 15.0% [2][8]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for FY25E is forecasted to be 1.95 RMB [2][8]. Price Target and Valuation - The target price is set at 48.28 HKD, down from a previous target of 52.75 HKD, representing a potential upside of 48.6% from the current stock price of 32.50 HKD [3][7]. - The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation indicates a per-share value of 48.28 HKD, based on a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.2% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [10][11]. Shareholder Structure - The largest shareholder is Tu Zhiliang, holding 34.2% of the shares, followed by Ruiyuan Fund with 8.0% [4]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a decline in absolute returns over the past month (-8.2%) and three months (-11.6%) [5]. Business Development - The company opened 7 new stores in 1H25, bringing the total to 83, and plans to add approximately 15 more stores in 2025 [7]. - The number of doctors in the network increased by 1,501 in 1H25, with a 23.5% year-on-year growth in offline doctors [7]. AI Initiatives - The company has launched AI initiatives, including the first "Famous Doctor AI Avatar," which is expected to generate significant revenue in the future [7]. Shareholder Returns - In 1H25, the company repurchased shares worth 84.69 million HKD, equivalent to 50% of net profit, and declared a mid-term dividend of 75.77 million RMB, also 50% of net profit [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][12] Core Views - The company is expected to show resilience in the first half of 2025, with revenue growth driven by improved gross margins and effective cost control. The relocation of production capacity is anticipated to enhance performance certainty [5][6] - Despite cautious customer orders in Q3 2025, the company is projected to benefit from a stable gross margin and strict expense management, leading to resilient profit performance [7] - The company’s revenue for H1 2025 reached USD 910 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, with a notable contribution from the core brand EGO [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to USD 140 million, USD 160 million, and USD 220 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.9%, 18.7%, and 35.3% [5] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a projected revenue of USD 1.85 billion in 2025, with a net profit of USD 138.2 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.9% [8] - The estimated P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 10.6, 9.0, and 6.6 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][11] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on new car profits, but stable contributions from after-sales services are expected to support profitability [4][5][6] - The company has undergone significant network optimization, closing 37 authorized dealerships while opening 57 new ones and 20 service centers to enhance operational efficiency [4][5] - The forecast for net profit has been revised downwards for 2025-2027 due to ongoing challenges in the luxury car sales market, with expected net profits of 27.17 billion, 36.49 billion, and 49.83 billion respectively [4][7] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 77.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, and a net profit of 10.11 billion, down 36.0% year-on-year [4][5] - The company sold 228,600 new cars in H1 2025, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, with a negative gross margin of 4.1% on new car sales [5][6] - After-sales service revenue increased by 4.4% year-on-year to 11.45 billion, with a gross profit of 5.44 billion, reflecting a stable growth trend [6][7] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.14, 1.53, and 2.09 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12.9, 9.6, and 7.0 [4][7] - The company's revenue is expected to stabilize and grow, with projections of 165.3 billion in 2025, 171.7 billion in 2026, and 200 billion in 2027 [7]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 周黑鸭(1458.HK) | | | CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 门店有望企稳，盈利快速修复 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 9 月 1 日 [Table_Summary] 事件：公司发布 2025 半年报，公司 25H1 实现收入 12.2 亿元，同比-2.9%。 实现净利润 1.08 亿元，同比+228%。收入落在预告中枢位置，盈利落在预告 偏上线。 点评： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 ➢ 同店企稳下，门店业务有望逐步止跌向上。25H1 公司收入同比-2.9%， 收入降幅收窄有望逐步企稳。门店业务端，25H1 自营门店实现营收 7.1 亿，特许经营实现营收 2.7 亿，25H1 公司门店数量较 24 年底净减少 167 家至 2864 家，25H1 平均单店同比增长 15.5%，我们预计公司上半年 ...