Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 66.40 [9][14]. Core Insights - The ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) sector is experiencing significant growth, with the company reporting a 71% year-over-year increase in order reserves, totaling USD 991 million by the end of 2024 [5][4]. - The company is advancing its global dual-plant strategy, with production facilities in both domestic and overseas locations being developed in an orderly manner [3][6]. - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36% from 2024 to 2026, with adjusted net profits projected at RMB 1.62 billion, RMB 2.17 billion, and RMB 2.58 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][14]. Summary by Sections ADC Industry Development - The ADC industry is witnessing a surge in commercialization and late-stage clinical production demand, driven by recent FDA approvals of new ADCs and increased global clinical registrations by multinational corporations [4]. - Domestic ADC molecules are leading a new wave of innovation, with significant participation in major conferences and substantial business development activities [4]. Order and Growth Momentum - The company has a robust order backlog, with a total of 194 projects (up 36% year-over-year) and 15 Phase III clinical projects as of the end of 2024 [5]. - The completion of the Singapore facility is expected to attract more overseas project orders [5]. Global Dual-Plant Strategy - The new production facility in XBCM2 L2 is set to produce 60 batches of 2,000L scale antibody intermediates and 80 batches of 1,000L scale conjugated solutions annually, enhancing commercial production capacity [6]. - Expansion plans in Wuxi and the successful construction of the Singapore facility are anticipated to begin receiving overseas orders by the end of 2025 [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to reach RMB 58.3 billion, RMB 76.1 billion, and RMB 94.1 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 16.2 billion, RMB 21.7 billion, and RMB 25.8 billion [14][18]. - The report maintains a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 45.92 for 2025, reflecting the strong demand in the ADC sector and the company's capacity expansion [7][14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company, Bluku, is the leading player in China's building block character toy market, achieving explosive growth through product transformation and channel expansion, with a GMV of approximately 1.8 billion CNY in 2023, capturing 30.3% of the building block character toy market share [1][2][13]. - The building block character toy market in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 41.3% from 2023 to 2028, with the market size projected to exceed 32.5 billion CNY by 2028 [2]. - The company's success is driven by a robust IP matrix, including over 50 popular licensed IPs and proprietary IPs, alongside a strong focus on cost-effective product development and deep channel penetration [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Bluku is recognized as China's largest building block character toy manufacturer, with a revenue structure heavily reliant on building block character toys, which accounted for 98.2% of revenue in 2024 [1][17]. - The company has seen rapid revenue growth, with a CAGR of 89% from 2021 to 2024, driven by the expansion of its distribution channels and the popularity of its IPs [30]. Market Analysis - The building block character toy market is highly concentrated, with the top five companies holding a combined market share of 77% in 2023, and Bluku leading with a 30.3% share [2]. - The global building block toy market is dominated by companies like Bandai and LEGO, indicating a competitive landscape that local companies must navigate [2]. Growth Strategy - Bluku's growth strategy includes leveraging its IP portfolio, which features successful franchises like Ultraman and Transformers, and enhancing its product offerings through technological innovation and user engagement [3][4]. - The company has established a comprehensive distribution network, with 511 distributors covering major cities and over 80% of lower-tier cities, resulting in a significant increase in offline sales [3][23]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Bluku indicate substantial growth, with expected revenues of 3.91 billion CNY in 2025, 5.61 billion CNY in 2026, and 7.40 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 74%, 43%, and 32% respectively [4][9]. - The company's net profit is projected to turn positive by 2024, driven by its focus on high-margin building block character toys and effective cost management strategies [51].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" [1][8] Core Views - In May 2025, Geely's new energy vehicle sales reached a record high of over 138,000 units, with optimistic expectations for annual sales and operating performance due to the launch of several key models [3][8] - The report anticipates Geely's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 16.3 billion RMB, 18.2 billion RMB, and 23.7 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.62 RMB, 1.81 RMB, and 2.35 RMB [8][10] - The report highlights a 46% year-on-year increase in May sales, with total sales reaching 235,000 units, including 138,000 new energy vehicles, which represents a 178% increase in pure electric vehicle sales and a 76% increase in plug-in hybrid sales [8][10] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 147.965 billion RMB in 2022 to 321.801 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 34% [7][10] - Gross profit is expected to increase from 20.896 billion RMB in 2022 to 51.810 billion RMB in 2025 [7] - Net profit is forecasted to rise significantly from 5.123 billion RMB in 2022 to 16.299 billion RMB in 2025, marking a 222% increase [7][10] - The report provides a PE ratio forecast of 22 for 2024, decreasing to 12 for 2025, and further to 11 for 2026 [7][10] Sales Performance - For the first five months of 2025, Geely's total sales reached 1.173 million units, a 49% year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicle sales accounting for 603,000 units [8][10] - The report outlines a sales target of 2.71 million units for 2025, with a specific target of 1.5 million new energy vehicles [8][10] - Geely plans to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, which is expected to enhance sales growth certainty [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company [1][14]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing an AI strategic transformation, shifting from tax digitalization and data analysis services to "Data Intelligence" AI [3][28]. - The company is a leader in the invoice platform sector, with significant potential in AI and data elements [7]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 8.52 billion, 10.15 billion, and 11.84 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.18%, 19.16%, and 16.65% respectively [10][14]. - The net profit for the same period is projected to be -7.87 million, 51.90 million, and 106.69 million RMB, reflecting growth rates of 98.43%, 759.27%, and 105.56% respectively [10][14]. - The target price is set at 36.48 HKD based on cautious valuation methods [14]. Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of 526 million RMB in 2022, increasing to 713 million in 2023, followed by a projected decrease to 659 million in 2024, and then growth to 852 million in 2025 [6][10]. - Gross profit margins are expected to improve from 39.96% in 2024 to 48.88% by 2027 [26][34]. - The company has a current market capitalization of 8,133 million HKD and a share price of 36.05 HKD [2][7]. Business Model and Strategy - The company operates a digital business platform that integrates digital certificates, signatures, big data analysis, AI, and blockchain [18]. - Key business lines include cloud and local deployment of tax digitalization solutions, as well as data-driven analysis services [18][24]. - The company aims to leverage its data assets, which include various transaction vouchers, to enhance its competitive edge [22][24]. AI Strategic Transformation - The new CEO, a former president of a leading AI company, indicates a strong commitment to advancing the company's AI strategy [28]. - The focus will be on building a reliable super data intelligence system to enhance operational efficiency and drive innovation in financial marketing and risk control [28]. Market Expansion - The company is entering the data element market, having signed a cooperation agreement to support the establishment of a data resource registration system [29]. - This strategic move aims to facilitate the development and circulation of data elements, transforming data resources into productive assets [29].

证券研究报告 奇富科技-S (3660 HK/QFIN US) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 盈利高质量，贷款质量稳健 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国香港/美国 | 其他多元金融 | 6 月 4 日奇富科技出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司回顾了 1Q25 的经营情况，并解答了投资者关注的问题。1Q25 需求具有韧性，同 时营销策略持续优化。贷款质量保持健康，C-M2 基本稳定。另外公司重视 股东回报，股份回购持续推进。我们认为公司运营稳健，质量稳定，利润"安 全垫"较为充足，预计 25 年盈利有望进一步提升，维持"买入"评级。 贷款质量保持稳健，盈利质量高 1Q25 C-M2 比例略升至 0.60%（4Q24：0.57%），首日逾期率升至 5.0% （4Q24：4.8%），30 天回款率环比持平于 88.1%。贷款质量仍然维持健康。 基于当前的宏观环境，结合公司谨慎的贷款投放和对风险的重视，我们预计 内年的 C-M2 比例有望大致维持在当前水平。另外 1Q25 的拨备计提率约 4.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 5.66 per share, indicating a potential upside of 32% from the current price of HKD 4.30 [6][11]. Core Views - The company reported a net loss of RMB 263.01 million in Q1 2025, with multiple negative factors already released, including operational losses and significant asset impairments. Support from TBEA Group and proactive measures like accounts receivable factoring are expected to help the company navigate through this challenging period [3][8]. - The supply-demand balance for polysilicon is improving slowly, with 2025 performance likely to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand. However, the downside for polysilicon prices is limited, and a recovery in supply-demand dynamics is anticipated in 2026 [4][9]. - The company's value is considered severely underestimated when accounting for its solar and wind power station construction and operational assets. In 2024, polysilicon business accounted for 37.4% of revenue, while wind and solar projects contributed 35.9% and 11.3%, respectively. The company is expected to return to normal profitability by 2026 [5][10]. Financial Summary - For FY2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 30,752 million, which is expected to decline to RMB 21,213 million in FY2024 and further to RMB 20,518 million in FY2025, before recovering to RMB 21,898 million in FY2026 [7][14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be negative in FY2024 and FY2025, with estimates of RMB (3,905) million and RMB (875) million, respectively. A return to profitability is expected in FY2026 with a net profit of RMB 1,098 million [7][14]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be negative in FY2024 and FY2025, with estimates of RMB (2.73) and RMB (0.61), respectively, before improving to RMB 0.77 in FY2026 [7][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 28.50 [7]. Core Views - The company emphasizes that despite short-term performance pressure due to a warm winter and tariff impacts leading to a slight decline in retail gas volume, it aims to enhance shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks [1]. - The report suggests that the increase in sustainable profit contribution and improved free cash flow will lead to a revaluation of the company's value, indicating a potential buying opportunity after recent price corrections [1]. Summary by Sections Retail Gas Volume and Margin Improvement - From January to April, the company's retail gas volume experienced a slight year-on-year decline, which was less than the national average decline of 2.2%. Industrial gas volume decreased due to tariff impacts on the export industry, while residential gas volume grew, supported by an increase in connected users. However, the average household gas consumption declined due to the warm winter [2]. - The overall gross margin improved slightly year-on-year, with better recovery in residential gross margin compared to the overall margin, and stable gross margin in industrial and commercial sectors. LNG spot prices have decreased, which is expected to further lower procurement costs in 2025 [2]. Impact of Real Estate Downturn and Service Segmentation - The company reported a year-on-year decline in new residential connections from January to April, with expectations of a 20% decrease in new home connections for 2025. The proportion of old home renovations is expected to rise to 30%, which may continue to suppress profit margins [3]. - There is a divergence in performance between comprehensive energy and comprehensive services, with comprehensive energy revenue growing year-on-year, while comprehensive services remained flat due to public sentiment impacts and government oversight [3]. Shareholder Returns and Capital Expenditure Optimization - The company has officially launched a share buyback plan, intending to repurchase up to 3% of its shares, which would require approximately HKD 1.5 billion based on the closing price on June 4. The company has also committed to increasing the dividend payout ratio for 2025, with total dividend expenditure expected to be no less than HKD 2.1 billion if the DPS remains flat year-on-year [4]. - Capital expenditures are being optimized, with regular expenditures directed towards comprehensive energy, while there is limited room for reducing expenditures related to pipeline replacement and new connections [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at HKD 4.4 billion, HKD 4.9 billion, and HKD 5.5 billion respectively, and EPS projected at HKD 1.90, HKD 2.13, and HKD 2.38, reflecting a CAGR of 10% over three years [5]. - The target price of HKD 28.50 is based on a 15x PE for 2025E, which is above the five-year historical average of 12x PE. The increasing contribution of sustainable business profits is expected to reduce performance uncertainty and lead to a revaluation of the company's value [5][11].

证券研究报告 奇富科技-S (3660 HK/QFIN US) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 盈利高质量，贷款质量稳健 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国香港/美国 | 其他多元金融 | 6 月 4 日奇富科技出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司回顾了 1Q25 的经营情况，并解答了投资者关注的问题。1Q25 需求具有韧性，同 时营销策略持续优化。贷款质量保持健康，C-M2 基本稳定。另外公司重视 股东回报，股份回购持续推进。我们认为公司运营稳健，质量稳定，利润"安 全垫"较为充足，预计 25 年盈利有望进一步提升，维持"买入"评级。 贷款质量保持稳健，盈利质量高 1Q25 C-M2 比例略升至 0.60%（4Q24：0.57%），首日逾期率升至 5.0% （4Q24：4.8%），30 天回款率环比持平于 88.1%。贷款质量仍然维持健康。 基于当前的宏观环境，结合公司谨慎的贷款投放和对风险的重视，我们预计 内年的 C-M2 比例有望大致维持在当前水平。另外 1Q25 的拨备计提率约 4.9 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 81.15 [8][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to enter a strong new car cycle in 2025, with a sales target of 500,000 to 600,000 units for the year, and aims to achieve profitability [2][13][15]. - The company has reported a significant year-on-year sales increase of 161% for the first five months of 2025, reaching 173,658 units [2][15]. - The gross margin has reached historical highs of 13.3% in Q4 2024 and 14.9% in Q1 2025, driven by scale effects, sales structure optimization, and cost management [2][14][15]. Summary by Sections Sales and Growth - The company aims for annual sales of 500,000 to 600,000 units and has achieved a cumulative sales increase of 161% year-on-year for the first five months of 2025 [2][15]. - The company is launching new models across four platforms (A, B, C, D) to support sales growth, with the B platform expected to introduce three new models in 2025 [2][16][18]. Channel Expansion and Operations - The company is expanding its channel network with a focus on efficiency and profitability for dealers, achieving a channel profitability rate of over 80% in 2024 [3][17]. - As of Q1 2025, the company has 756 sales outlets covering 279 cities, with plans to exceed 1,000 outlets by the end of the year [3][17]. International Expansion and Strategic Partnerships - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, with a target of over 550 overseas channels and an export goal of 50,000 to 60,000 units in 2025 [4][20]. - Strategic partnerships are being formed, including collaborations with Stellantis and Peugeot Citroën, which are expected to contribute to revenue and gross margin [4][22][25]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at RMB 68.71 billion, RMB 91.40 billion, and RMB 116.66 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to turn positive in 2025 [5][23]. - The company is assigned a price-to-sales (PS) target of 1.5 times for 2025, reflecting a premium valuation due to its strong new car cycle and strategic initiatives [5][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of HKD 72.00 and RMB 73.00 [8]. Core Views - The company plans to issue HKD 11.765 billion in H-share convertible bonds, which reflects confidence in future growth and allows for lower-cost financing [4]. - The company's new business value (NBV) is expected to grow steadily, with a projected year-on-year increase of 27% for 2025, driven by strong performance in the bancassurance channel and resilient growth in the agent channel [2]. - The investment strategy focuses on high-dividend stocks, with significant investments in major banks to enhance cash returns in a low-interest-rate environment [3]. Summary by Sections Insurance Business - The bancassurance channel has seen a robust growth of 171% year-on-year in NBV for Q1 2025, aided by the removal of restrictions on bank partnerships [2]. - The agent channel also showed resilience, with a 12% year-on-year increase in NBV for Q1 2025, driven by improved value rates [2]. Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes the allocation of FVOCI stocks and has actively increased stakes in banks since December 2024 to boost dividend income [3]. - The current low bond yields have led to a potential slowdown in bond allocation, with the 30-year government bond yield at 1.89% compared to a new policy rate of 2.5% for traditional life insurance [3]. Financial Projections - The company maintains its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts at RMB 7.37, RMB 7.83, and RMB 8.31 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. - The projected gross premium income for 2025 is RMB 584.644 billion, reflecting a 6.07% year-on-year growth [7]. - Total investment income is expected to reach RMB 209.034 billion in 2025, marking a 29.78% increase from the previous year [7].