持续看多国防科技四大主线 20260302 摘要 个股定价以远期市场空间和卡位为核心，短期交易围绕事件催化和边际 变化。重点关注商用大飞机（含航空发动机与燃气轮机）、商业航天、 AI 产业链（AIDC 缺电背景下燃机链国产替代与出海）、军贸高端化破 局四大主线。 看好商业航天国产链今年出现"3D 共振"，股价催化核心在火箭链，源 于可回收火箭首飞与复飞。3 月中后旬至二季度预计出现大量首飞和复 飞催化，二季度至三季度国内商业航天火箭公司 IPO 也将构成催化。卫 星链业绩兑现确定性高于火箭链。 商业航天海外映射关注 SpaceX 产业链及机械、电芯环节标的。事件层 面，关注 SpaceX 启动 IPO 和 Starship V3 复飞等关键进展，这些是海 外映射的核心催化剂。 AIDC 缺电问题带动燃机关注度上升，机会体现在国内燃机供应链出海 和燃机总装环节的国产替代与出海机遇拓展。从原材料到整机存在全面 轮动与股价"泛化"机会。 Q&A 在军工板块的大势研判上，当前更看好哪些主线方向，对"内装赛道"的态度 是什么，个股定价框架如何把握？ 维持既有判断不变，相对更看好"军转民"和"军贸"两大方向；对"内装赛 ...

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report highlights the potential for growth in China's military trade, driven by increasing global military expenditures and the transition from low-cost exports to high-end weaponry [20][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring three key signals regarding the U.S.-Iran situation, which could impact market dynamics significantly [11][12] - The report suggests that the recent decline in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily driven by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, indicating a shift towards safe-haven assets [30][32] Group 2: Stock Market Focus - The report identifies specific stocks to watch in the context of military trade, including AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and Aerospace Rainbow, which are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for military technology [21][20] - The report notes that the AI industry is exhibiting characteristics of a "rigid bubble," with companies like NVIDIA and GE Vernova being highlighted as key players [34][36] - The report suggests that the Taiwanese stock market is benefiting from strong export performance, particularly in the semiconductor sector, despite valuation pressures [34][36] Group 3: ETF Recommendations - The report recommends investing in SPDR® Gold ETF and STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF as strategic options to capitalize on the current market conditions [22][27] - The report provides performance metrics for these ETFs, indicating strong returns over various time frames, which supports their inclusion in investment strategies [25][28] Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The report advises investors to consider reducing exposure to long-duration U.S. Treasuries as yields decline due to geopolitical tensions, suggesting a tactical approach to bond investments [30][32] - The report highlights the performance of various bond categories, including U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bonds, indicating a mixed outlook based on current market conditions [5][30]

证券研究报告 航天军工 美以袭击伊朗使安全局势进一步恶化 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 01 日│中国内地 行业周报（第九周） 本周观点：美以袭击伊朗使安全局势进一步恶化 2 月 28 日，美国和以色列宣布，已从空中和海上对伊朗发起打击。新华社 2 月 28 日报道，据以色列媒体报道，在 2 月 28 日以色列和美国对伊朗的军事打击中，以方 率先发动袭击"清除威胁"，美军随即全力跟进，形成协同作战模式。美国总统特朗 普在社交媒体发布的视频中称，伊朗正在研制威胁美国的远程导弹，此次袭击要摧 毁伊朗的导弹工业，消灭伊朗海军，并确保伊朗不能获得核武器。 国际安全形势变化促使全球军费扩张。世界进入新的动荡变革期，近几年，全球进 入二战结束以来军事冲突最多的时期，俄乌、巴以、印巴、以伊等局部冲突不断， 国际安全局势的复杂性与不确定性显著上升，美国、欧盟、日本等国家和地区大幅 提升国防预算。我国军贸有望在"十五五"期间获得较快发展，市占率有望提升。 军贸市场相关上市公司包括：中航沈飞、中航成飞、国睿科技、航天南湖、航天彩 虹、中无人机、晶品特装等；具有防化产品业务的相关上市公司包括北化股份等。 中长期观点：关注新装备建 ...

行业周报 · 国防军工行业 美以联合袭击伊朗，地缘政治风险加剧 ——军工行业双周报 建议关注： 2026 年 3 月 1 日 国防军工 推荐 维持 分析师 李良 ：010-80927657 ：liliang_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130515090001 胡浩淼 ：010-80927657 分析师登记编码：S0130521100001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026-2-27 资料来源：iFind,中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 ⚫ 美以联合袭击伊朗，国际地缘政治风险加剧：2 月 28 日，美以联合袭击伊 朗。美方的代号为"史诗狂怒"行动，以色列则是"狮吼"行动。作为回击， 伊 朗同 日对美 国在中 东的 多处军 事基 地以及 以色列 国内 相关目 标发动 大规 模 报复行动。当天，沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔、科威特、巴林、约旦等国受到影响。 ⚫ 地缘风险升级将进一步强化军费稳增长预期。能战方能止战，地缘风险升 级将进一步强化军费稳增长预期，采购节奏与规模确定 ...

行业周报 · 国防军工行业 美以联合袭击伊朗，地缘政治风险加剧 ——军工行业双周报 建议关注： 2026 年 3 月 1 日 国防军工 推荐 维持 分析师 李良 ：010-80927657 ：liliang_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130515090001 相关研究 胡浩淼 ：010-80927657 ：huhaomiao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130521100001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026-2-27 资料来源：iFind,中国银河证券研究院 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 ⚫ 美以联合袭击伊朗，国际地缘政治风险加剧：2 月 28 日，美以联合袭击伊 朗。美方的代号为"史诗狂怒"行动，以色列则是"狮吼"行动。作为回击， 伊 朗同 日对美 国在中 东的 多处军 事基 地以及 以色列 国内 相关目 标发动 大规 模 报复行动。当天，沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔、科威特、巴林、约旦等国受到影响。 ⚫ 地缘风险升级将进一步强化军费稳增长预期。能战方能止 ...

Xml [Table_Title] 国防军工行业 商业航天景气抬升，看好 AIDC 供电&服务器、军贸、大飞机等 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|国防军工 证券研究报告 | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-03-01 | | [分析师： Table_Author] 孟祥杰 | SAC 执证号：S0260521040002 | | | --- | --- | --- | | SFC CE No. BRF275 | | | | 010-59136693 | | | | mengxiangjie@gf.com.cn | 分析师： | 吴坤其 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120001 | | | | SFC CE No. BRT139 | | | | 010-59133689 | | | | wukunqi@gf.com.cn | 分析师： | 邱净博 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120005 | | | | 010-59136685 | ...

美以对伊朗发动联合打击，伊朗已展开报复行动。全球安全形势有所变化，各国加 大军购力度或为必选项，以预警雷达、便携式导弹等防空预警、低成本高效费比装 备或将成为军贸市场爆款。建议关注我国军贸产业链上市公司。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 全球安全形势变化，关注军贸长逻辑 [Table_Industry] 军工 美以对伊朗发动联合打击事件点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周明頔(分析师) | 010-83939792 | zhoumingdi@gtht.com | S0880525080003 | | 杨天昊(分析师) | 010-83939791 | yangtianhao@gtht.com | S0880523080010 | 本报告导读： 军工《军工板块上涨，国际地缘冲突升级》 2026.03.01 军工《长征十号与梦舟飞船首次飞行试验取得成 功》2026.02.11 军工《国产军民机亮相新加坡航展，美将加速生 产五种关键 ...

01丨 美以联合打击伊朗 28日下午，以色列和伊朗开战。 伊军事对峙持续升级，继昨晚多国启动撤侨行动后，今天美国联合以色列正式对伊朗发动袭击。 中东是全球石油的主产区，霍尔木兹海峡是石油运输的咽喉要道，全球每 10 桶油里，就有 2 桶从这里过。 一旦冲突升级，石油供应 就会断供，油价必然会上涨 ，油价上行直接增厚上游油气开采企业盈利，同时带动油气企业资本开支增加，利好油服设备与油运企 业。 除了石油， 航运也会受影响 ，国际物流的主要路线经过中东，冲突一闹，运费直接翻倍，那些做国际物流的公司，订单都排到明年 了。 还有 军工 ，地缘紧张，各国都会加大军费，军工企业迎来发展机遇 最后是 黄金 ，大炮一响，黄金万两。每次地缘冲突，大家都怕风险，就会把钱换成黄金，黄金价格都大概率迎来上涨。 此外，伊朗是甲醇、乙二醇等化工品的核心出口国，冲突导致出口受限，国内对应化工品供给缺口扩大， 利好国内缺口型化工板块 ； 若冲突导致SWIFT系统受限，伊朗等国可能加速使用人民币结算，将催化跨境支付（CIPS）板块的情绪行情。 通源石油（300164）：北美页岩油技术，海外订单弹性大 中海油服（601808）、杰瑞股份（002 ...

Group 1 - China Satcom (601698) is a key player in satellite communication, holding scarce orbital positions and spectrum resources, crucial for commercial space ventures. The demand for satellite communication and data services is rapidly increasing due to the acceleration of low-orbit satellite networks and mobile direct satellite connections [1][44] - The company has a complete ground station network and high-throughput satellite resources, deeply integrated with national satellite internet projects, ensuring stable and sustainable cash flow [1][45] - With the ongoing scale-up of commercial space, the demand for satellite operation, data distribution, and industry applications continues to grow, supported by favorable policies for satellite internet [1][45] Group 2 - China Satellite (600118) focuses on the entire satellite manufacturing and application chain, covering communication, navigation, and remote sensing, making it a core player in satellite manufacturing [2][46] - The demand for small satellite launches is surging as low-orbit satellite constellations reach their peak, leading to explosive growth in satellite assembly and core component supply [2][46] - The company leverages its technological and resource advantages from the Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, participating in major national space projects and expanding its service offerings [2][46] Group 3 - Aerospace Electronics (600879) specializes in aerospace measurement and control, covering key areas such as rocket control and satellite attitude control, with a supply rate exceeding 90% [3][47] - The demand for aerospace measurement and satellite electronics is increasing due to the rise in commercial rocket launches and large-scale low-orbit satellite networks [3][47] - The company has a strong order backlog and is actively expanding into the commercial space market, providing services to private rocket and satellite companies [3][47] Group 4 - ZTE Corporation (000063) is a global leader in communication equipment, deeply involved in the ground core network and terminal equipment for satellite internet, making it a key participant in commercial space ground systems [4][48] - The demand for satellite communication ground stations, core network equipment, and terminal chips is surging due to the acceleration of low-orbit satellite construction [4][48] - The company is leveraging its 5G and communication technology expertise to quickly enter the satellite communication field, participating in national satellite network projects and expanding into overseas markets [4][48] Group 5 - AVIC Optoelectronics (002179) focuses on high-reliability connectors and cable components, widely used in rockets, satellites, and spacecraft, making it a core supplier in commercial aerospace connection systems [5][49] - The demand for high-reliability connectors is growing as the complexity and reliability requirements of commercial aerospace equipment increase [5][49] - The company is actively expanding into the private aerospace market, providing services to commercial rocket and satellite companies, enhancing its market share [5][49] Group 6 - Aerospace Development (000547) is the only publicly listed platform for commercial aerospace under the Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation, covering the entire satellite manufacturing, operation, and ground terminal chain [6][50] - The company has seen a significant increase in commercial aerospace orders, leveraging its military qualifications and resource advantages [6][50] - With the gradual establishment of the "Tianmu-1" low-orbit meteorological satellite constellation, the company is enhancing its satellite data service capabilities [6][50] Group 7 - Guangqi Technology (002625) specializes in metamaterials, widely used in aerospace equipment for stealth and structural enhancement, making it a core player in the new materials sector of commercial aerospace [7][51] - The demand for metamaterials is continuously increasing as commercial aerospace equipment requires lightweight, stealthy, and high-performance materials [7][51] - The company is actively expanding into the civilian commercial aerospace market, providing metamaterial solutions to private rocket and satellite companies [7][51] Group 8 - Chengchang Technology (001270) is a leading supplier of spaceborne T/R chips, with a market share exceeding 70%, making it a core supplier in the commercial aerospace RF chip sector [8][53] - The demand for spaceborne T/R chips is experiencing exponential growth due to the large-scale networking of low-orbit constellations [8][53] - The company is expanding into overseas markets and entering the global commercial satellite supply chain, further enhancing its market share [8][53] Group 9 - Tianyin Electromechanical (300342) specializes in satellite attitude control star sensors, holding a market share exceeding 60%, making it a leading enterprise in core components for commercial aerospace satellites [9][54] - The demand for star sensors is robust, with each satellite requiring one, and the company is seeing significant growth in order volume due to the batch launch of low-orbit satellites [9][54] - The company is actively expanding its product layout to include other core satellite components, further enhancing its market share [9][54]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The focus is on the aerospace and defense industry, particularly regarding the military activities of the United States in the context of potential conflict with Iran. Companies of interest include 航天南湖 (Aerospace Nanh Lake) and 国睿科技 (Guorui Technology) [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The U.S. military has significantly increased its presence in the region, with two aircraft carrier strike groups, the Lincoln and Ford, positioned near Iran, along with approximately 20 surface and underwater vessels capable of carrying around 1,000 Tomahawk missiles [1]. - Air power has been bolstered with the deployment of 250-300 advanced fighter jets, including F-15, F-16, F-22, and F-35, as well as support aircraft such as B-52H, KC-135, KC-46, and E-3 AWACS [1]. - The current military buildup represents the largest concentration of U.S. military forces since the Iraq War, indicating a high level of expenditure that may not be sustainable over the long term [4]. - There is a strong indication that the U.S. may conduct military strikes against Iran on February 23 or 24, as suggested by reports citing former CIA personnel [4]. - The White House has confirmed that President Trump plans to visit China from March 31 to April 2, suggesting a desire to resolve the conflict before this diplomatic engagement [4]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The potential for investment opportunities in air defense systems is highlighted, suggesting that companies involved in this sector may benefit from the heightened military activity and geopolitical tensions [4].