地产杂谈系列之六十五 黎明破晓，冬去春来 强于大市（维持） 房地产 2026 年 03 月 04 日 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业年度策略报告*房地产*曙光渐近， 拥抱价值*强于大市 20251203 证券分析师 杨侃 投资咨询资格编号 S1060514080002 BQV514 YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn 郑茜文 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090003 ZHENGXIWEN239@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 告 库存端现积极信号，楼市调整或接近尾声：2025 年全国商品房销售面积 绝对规模回到 2010 年前水平；70 个大中城市新房、二手房指数回到 2018 年和 2016 年水平，本轮国内楼市调整幅度已接近 2005 年后美国、英国 及中国香港。同时"严控增量、优化存量、提高质量"政策逐见成效，全 国商品房开工未售库存持续收缩，去化周期逐步企稳。我们认为无论从绝 对调整幅度还是海外经验来看，本轮楼市调整或逐步接近尾声。 "好房子"加速改善需求释放，居民置业压力大幅减轻：当前政府持续推 动"好房子"建设，产品迭代与 ...

行业研究 1-2 月百强房企销售金额同比下降 30% ——百强房企销售跟踪（2026 年 2 月） 要点 1-2 月 TOP10 房企全口径销售额同比-25%，TOP100 房企同比-30%。 1）2026 年 2 月，TOP10 房企的全口径销售金额、权益销售金额、全口径销售 面积分别为 621 亿元、461 亿元、310 万平，同比分别为-37.5%、-36.2%、-34.1%， 环比分别为-30.5%、-26.9%、-26.3%。 2026 年 1-2 月，TOP10 房企累计全口径销售金额、权益销售金额、全口径销售 面积分别为 1,515 亿元、1,091 亿元、731 万平，累计同比分别为-24.6%、-26.0%、 -26.1%，较 1 月同比变化分别为-12.7pct、-9.8pct、-7.3pct。 2）2026 年 2 月，TOP100 房企的全口径销售金额、权益销售金额、全口径销售 面积分别为 1,252 亿元、910 亿元、692 万平，同比分别为-36.8%、-36.2%、 -35.4%，环比分别为-31.3%、-29.2%、-19.5%。 2026 年 3 月 2 日 2026 年 ...

| 评级： | 增持（维持） | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：由子沛 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | | 保利发展 | 6.80 | 1.01 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 6.7 | 16.2 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 买入 | | | | 招商蛇口 | 9.91 | 0.65 | 0.37 | 0.48 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 15.2 | 26.8 | 20.6 | 18.7 | 16.5 | 买入 | | Ema ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产开发与服务 26 年第 9 周 小阳春复苏强劲，行情持续有支撑 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-02 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -14% -6% 1% 9% 16% 24% 03/25 05/25 07/25 10/25 12/25 02/26 房地产 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]郭镇 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260514080003 | | | SFC CE No. BNN906 | | | 021-38003639 | | | guoz@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 邢莘 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260520070009 | | | 021-38003638 | | | xingshen@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 谢淼 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260522070007 | | | SF ...

2026年3月1日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 证券研究报告 优质港房财报现积极信号，打开股价上 行空间 地产行业周报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2 周度观点：新鸿基地产业绩增长&股息提升，优质港房报表端积极信号逐步显现。本周新鸿基地产公布2026财年半年报，2026财年上半年 收入同比增长32%，归母净利润同比增长36.2%，撇除投资物业公平值变动影响后的核心归母净利润同比增长16.7%；中期股息0.98港元/ 股，同比增长3%。同时公司紧抓中国香港楼市修复契机，报告期内新增多宗地块有望充分受益香港楼市回升，实际融资成本进一步下降 到3%。发展物业减值拨备由上年同期的10.8亿港币降至0，投资物业公允价值变动由上年同期-28.8亿港元缩减至本期-13.1亿港元，侧面 体现香港楼市回暖及商业零售逐步好转。 三重对比港房股价仍有空间，重申全年看好港资房企。我们认为港资房企上行空间仍存：1）以新鸿基地产为例，目前PB为0.68倍，仍低 于业务模式（开发+持有）类似的华润置地（0.77PB），但香港楼市已经企稳，内地楼市仍在探底；2）上轮香港楼市调整于2003年见底， 新 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 房地产开发 2026W8：上海进一步放松限购，关注小阳春市场表现 上海发布楼市新政，政策效用或持续数月，全国层面仍待中央政策的落位。 2 月 25 日上海发布楼市新政，政策主要包括限购政策放松、公积金额度 上浮、房产税免征范围扩大。非沪籍居民家庭或成年单身人士，在上海连 续缴纳社保或个税满 1 年及以上的，在外环外购买住房不限套数，在外环 内限购 1 套住房；连续缴纳满 3 年及以上的，在外环内限购 2 套住房；持 居住证满 5 年及以上的，在全市范围内限购 1 套住房。整体来看，政策围 绕新上海人（包括缴纳社保和未缴纳社保的）、公积金额度提升预算展开， 预计对刚需、刚改都有提振作用，进而去试图打开置换的链条。基于上海 当前基本面（有所下降的二手房挂牌、下跌过的房价、高企的新房库存）， 我们预计政策对市场有效烘托时长是 3-4 个月，上海小阳春成交会起量， 价格整体相对平稳，二手房议价空间收窄，进一步消耗二手挂牌和新房存 量，改善供需结构。上海城市维度政策或就此出尽，而且上海城市地位有 一定特殊，上海城市政策对全国作用相对 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for recovery in quality real estate companies and commercial properties [2][26]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector is approaching a bottom in its fundamentals after a deep adjustment, supported by recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [2][26]. - The "Shanghai Seven" policy has been introduced to optimize local real estate regulations, which includes reducing the purchase threshold for non-local residents and increasing housing fund loan limits [2][26]. - The report emphasizes that the supply-side adjustments in the real estate market have significantly improved the industry landscape, making it attractive for investment [2][26]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.057 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 334.6% [3][6]. - Year-on-year, February saw a 24.5% decline in new home transactions across 34 cities compared to the previous year [6][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities reached 512,000 square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 823.7% [11][12]. - However, February's cumulative transactions showed a year-on-year decline of 25.5% compared to the previous year [11][12]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, 15 cities had a total of 120,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 3.1 times [20][21]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 88.436 million square meters, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.3% [20][21]. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China announced that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for February remains unchanged, with a 1-year LPR at 3% and a 5-year LPR at 3.5% [26][27]. - The report notes significant policy changes in Shanghai, including adjustments to purchase eligibility for non-local residents and increased loan limits for first-time homebuyers [26][27]. - Guangzhou plans to invest 220 billion yuan in urban renewal by 2026, indicating a strong commitment to improving housing quality [30][31]. Company Announcements - New City Development successfully issued a $355 million senior unsecured bond with a 3-year term and an interest rate of 11.8% [33][34]. - The report highlights the performance of various real estate stocks, noting that the SW Real Estate Index rose by 0.6%, underperforming compared to the broader market [34][35]. Sector Performance Review - The property management sector saw an average decline of 0.12%, while the SW Real Estate Index outperformed with a 1.08% increase [41][42]. - The report lists the top-performing real estate stocks, with notable gains from companies like *ST Rong Control and Heimu Dan, while others like Shanghai Development and Hainan Airport faced declines [35][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][28]. Core Insights - The report indicates that after a deep adjustment in the real estate sector, the industry fundamentals are approaching a bottom, supported by recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [2][28]. - The report highlights a significant increase in new home transactions, with a week-on-week increase of 334.6% in 34 key cities, indicating a recovery trend [3][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of quality real estate companies and commercial properties, suggesting that they will recover profitability sooner and with more elasticity due to improved industry dynamics [2][28]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.057 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 334.6% [3][11]. - The transaction volume for first-tier cities was 950,000 square meters, up 315.9% week-on-week, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a staggering increase of 626.2% [3][11]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities reached 512,000 square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 823.7% [11]. - However, the cumulative transaction volume for February showed a year-on-year decline of 25.5% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, 15 key cities launched 120,000 square meters of new supply, with total sales of 380,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 3.1 times [21]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 88.436 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 0.3% week-on-week [21]. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China announced that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for February remained unchanged, with a 1-year LPR at 3% and a 5-year LPR at 3.5% [28][29]. - The "Shanghai Seven Measures" policy was introduced to optimize the local real estate market, including reducing the purchase threshold for non-local residents and increasing the maximum public housing fund loan amount for first-time buyers [28][29]. Company Announcements - New City Development successfully issued $355 million in senior unsecured bonds with a maturity of 3 years and a coupon rate of 11.8% [36]. - The report notes that the real estate sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by only 0.6% compared to a 1.08% increase in the CSI 300 Index [37][38].

[Table_Page] 投资策略月报|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产行业 26 年 1 月市场总结 市场信心逐步回升，主流标的表现优异 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-02-26 [相对市场表现 Table_PicQuote] [分析师： Table_Author]郭镇 SAC 执证号：S0260514080003 SFC CE No. BNN906 021-38003639 guoz@gf.com.cn 分析师： 邢莘 SAC 执证号：S0260520070009 021-38003638 xingshen@gf.com.cn 分析师： 谢淼 SAC 执证号：S0260522070007 SFC CE No. BVB342 021-38003637 xiemiao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 李怡慧 SAC 执证号：S0260524040001 SFC CE No. BVI219 021-38003636 liyihui@gf.com.cn 分析师： 辛恬 SAC 执证号：S026052 ...

[Table_Report] 相关报告 期待更强政策干预，推动供需再平衡 [Table_Industry] 房地产 ——中国城市运行周期跟踪（2025.Q4） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 涂力磊(分析师) | 021-23185710 | tulilei@gtht.com | S0880525040101 | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 010-83939826 | xiehaoyu@gtht.com | S0880518010002 | | 白淑媛(分析师) | 021-38675923 | baishuyuan@gtht.com | S0880518010004 | 本报告导读： 2025 年 4Q 市场整体表现出成交量乏力、价格环比继续回落以及库存上涨、去化压 力持续增大特点。考虑一、二线城市出清周期均呈现持续攀升态势，且达到 2023 年以来最高水平，市场需要更长时间或更强力的政策干预来推动再平衡。 投资要点： 房地产《沪"新七条"发布，小阳春可期》2026.02.25 房地产《第 8 周成交回落、 ...