策略专题 赛道投资专题——主题择时方法论及 主线跟踪 2026 年 03 月 04 日 【策略观点】 【风险提示】 政策低于预期；产业进度不及预期；数据统计存在误差等。 挖掘价值 投资成长 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：陈果 证书编号：S1160525040001 证券分析师：杨泽宇 证书编号：S1160525100001 相关研究 《金银大幅波动后怎么看？——2 月资产 配置展望》 2026.02.04 《布局顺周期，基金经理如何展望 2026？ ——25Q4 基金持仓及文本透视》 2026.01.27 《南方中证 A500ETF，一键布局中国优质 资产》 2025.12.12 《景气线索占比重新回升——25Q3 A 股 财报分析（一）》 2025.11.04 《科技配置高企，基金经理怎么看 Q4？— —25Q3 基金持仓及文本透视》 2025.11.03 略 研 究 / 策 略 专 题 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 策 主题投资根据其催化因素可以分为宏观主题、产业主题和事件主题。 本文主要围绕产业主题进行讨论。产业投资聚焦已实现量产或稳定收 入的成熟领域，主题投资则围绕尚未商业化落地的新兴技术的想象空 间 ...

Accessible version Shennan Circuits (A) Strong portfolio/customer base, Meta/AMD deal to drive more upside; new PO CNY303 Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 303.00 CNY | Price: 263.76 CNY Solid PCB/substrate position, diversified customers We remain constructive on Shennan, backed by its solid position in both AI server/optical transceiver PCB and BT/ABF substrate. We expect Shennan to continue riding on the robust memory and optical transceiver module demand. More importantly, its diversified PCB customer base ac ...

AI 算力又一瓶颈，芯片封装基板供应短缺 20260302 摘要 IC 载板作为 PCB 高端领域，国产渗透率低，增长空间大，是 PCB 板块 中值得重点关注的细分方向，尤其是在"算力相关 PCB 创新"之外。 2025 年载板行情未充分发酵，因 BT 载板与存储周期相关，涨价早幅度 大；ABF 载板下游分散，涨价滞后。上游材料供给约束是 2025 年载板 涨价的重要驱动，而非单纯的需求拉动。 2026 年 BT 载板将延续涨价趋势，ABF 载板也开始涨价，主要驱动力来 自材料端供给约束叠加需求端结构性增量，ABF 载板逐步成为 GPU 生 产的瓶颈环节。 海外载板厂积极扩产，但上游材料端扩产节奏偏慢，难以匹配下游需求 增长，预计 2026 年行业涨价具有较强必然性，供需偏紧状态预计仍将 延续。 国内 ABF 载板体系化推进始于 2021 年，虽在外资客户体系中仍较难达 到向英伟达供货的要求，但在国内多类应用场景中技术能力已逐步达标， 国产替代正在进行中。 Q&A 在 PCB 产业链中，IC 载板（BT 与 ABF）应如何定位，当前投资关注点是什 么？ IC 载板属于 PCB 环节中技术门槛最高、价值量最高的 ...

Flash | 01 Mar 2026 11:17:15 ET │ 12 pages Shengyi Technology (600183.SS) Preliminary Results Mean 4Q25 a Slight Miss, But Still Promising Growth Outlook for 2026E CITI'S TAKE Shengyi announced the 2025 preliminary results with revenue / net profit surging 39% / 92% yoy to Rmb28.431bn / Rmb3.334bn respectively. This implies the 4Q25 net profit of Rmb886m soaring 142% yoy. However, this was still slightly lower than previous midpoint guidance of Rmb902m. See Fig 1 for the quarterly P&L trend. Despite the mil ...

+852-2532 1954 行业评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2026 年 3 月 2 日 星期一 【行业评论】 科技行业周报：重视国产算力产业链，AI 应用强化算力 CAPEX 趋势 chen.huang@firstshanghai.com.hk 行业 TMT 我们继续提示国产算力的确定性机会，预计 H 公司新一代改款算力芯片 950 系列即 将发布，实现量产落地。产业链调研情况看，互联网公司对 950 芯片的评价正面， 采购意愿积极，我们重申 2026 年将是国产算力放量年。上周，关于寒武纪的小作 文也在各种媒体流传，我们认为这是下游客户端旺盛需求的一个印证。随着 AI 推 理应用逐步推广，算力瓶颈开始凸显。近日，字节 Seedance 视频生成任务开始拥 堵，反映了用户端爆发的需求与有限的算力之间的供需差。 推荐国产算力的核心标的包括寒武纪（688256）为代表的国产算力卡供应商，以及 中芯国际（981.HK）为代表的上游晶圆代工厂。此外，华虹集团在先进制程上进展 积极，建议关注旗下子公司华虹半导体（1347.HK）的投资机会。以及 H 公司产业 链 ...

Summary of Conference Call on China CCL Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) sector, particularly in relation to advancements in AI and high-end CCL materials [1][2]. Key Companies Discussed - **Shengyi Technology (600183.SS)** - **Shennan Circuit (002916.SZ)** - **Kingboard Laminates Holdings (1888.HK)** - Other suppliers mentioned include EMC, Doosan, TUC, Panasonic, and ITEQ [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Growth in AI-CCL Materials**: - NVDA's recent results indicate a strong demand for high-end CCL materials, with a roadmap showing significant upgrades from 2020 to 2026 [1]. - The transition to advanced materials is expected to create opportunities for suppliers within the NVDA ecosystem [1]. 2. **Shengyi's Competitive Edge**: - Shengyi is the only certified supplier of M9 CCL by NVDA, achieving a production yield of over 90% for the Rubin platform [3]. - Projected earnings growth for Shengyi is over 33% to RMB 4.6 billion, with AI-CCL volume expected to double this year [3]. 3. **Market Demand Projections**: - AI-CCL volume is projected to reach 1.5-1.6 million sheets in 2026, accounting for over 15% of total capacity [3]. - The gross margin (GM) for AI-CCL is expected to exceed 40%, compared to an average of 28% for the CCL segment [3]. 4. **Shennan's Growth Potential**: - Shennan is expected to see a 39% CAGR in earnings from 2025 to 2027, driven by AI-PCB and BT substrate segments [10]. - The GM for AI-PCB is projected to be at least 45% in 2H25, supported by major customers like Huawei and increased AI capex among Chinese hyperscalers [10]. 5. **Kingboard Laminates' Strategy**: - KBL plans to enter the NVDA supply chain with its M9 CCL and is gaining momentum in upstream glass fabric production [4][9]. - The ASP of quartz fabric for M9 is significantly higher than E-glass, leading to a suspension of certain E-glass CCL products for a mix upgrade [7]. Additional Important Insights - **Material Shortages**: - There is a noted shortage of AI-fabric materials, particularly low Dk/gen 2 and Q-glass, with projected CAGRs of 387% and 471% respectively from 2025 to 2027 [8][11]. - Supply issues are expected to exacerbate delivery lead times, creating opportunities for price inflation [8]. - **Valuation and Risks**: - Target prices for Shengyi and Shennan reflect high P/E ratios due to expected earnings upgrades and market share gains [25][28]. - Risks include slower-than-expected customer certification, macroeconomic conditions in China, and demand fluctuations in electronic goods [24][26][29]. - **Future Production Plans**: - KBL aims to produce 2,000 tons of low Dk gen 1/gen 2 by 1Q26, with potential net profit contributions exceeding HK$400 million for 2026 [9]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the growth potential and strategic positioning of companies within the China CCL sector amidst the evolving landscape driven by AI advancements.

Current Strategy Viewpoints - The capital market experienced fluctuations in early February but rebounded later in the month, primarily due to reduced trading activity before the Spring Festival and short-term policy guidance [1] - The market is expected to enter a phase of economic data and policy verification, with a seasonal increase in trading activity post-Spring Festival, laying a foundation for future market performance [1] - Upcoming economic and corporate profit data, along with the National People's Congress in March, will be crucial for setting the annual policy tone and economic targets, which are significant for the capital market [1] Sector Focus - Short-term focus on safe-haven assets and resource products due to tensions in the Middle East, including precious metals and oil sectors [2] - Long-term focus on growth and cyclical sectors, with particular attention to small-cap stocks that typically perform well in spring [2] - Key sectors to watch include humanoid robots, computing, and AI, benefiting from sustained industry enthusiasm and increased risk appetite among investors [2] Macro Overview - The upcoming National People's Congress will set the tone for the annual economy, with GDP growth targets expected to be set between 4.5% and 5% [8] - Fiscal policy is anticipated to include a deficit rate of 4.0% and new special bonds totaling 5 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in fiscal deficit compared to last year [8] Financial Engineering - The A-share market has seen a rise in industry crowding, particularly in media and resource sectors, with the media sector showing a crowding degree of 98.25% [12][14] - The resource sector continues to perform well, with price fluctuations leading to a decrease in crowding indicators, suggesting a potential for continued upward movement [13] Electronic Communication Industry - The upcoming GTC conference is expected to showcase new chip developments from NVIDIA, reinforcing AI as a core investment theme [24] - The demand for storage products is projected to rise significantly, driven by strong AI customer needs and price increases in the DRAM market [25] Computer Industry - The rapid iteration of domestic AI large models is expected to drive significant growth in computing power investments, with a focus on world model technology advancements [28] - The demand for AI-driven applications is anticipated to increase, leading to a surge in computing needs and infrastructure investments [29] New Energy Industry - Focus on hydrogen and ammonia projects, with government support for integrated energy bases expected to drive growth in this sector [32] - The electric power equipment sector is poised for growth due to ongoing global energy demands and potential easing of import restrictions in India [32] High-end Manufacturing Industry - The humanoid robot sector is entering a phase of mass production, with significant advancements showcased during the Spring Festival [35] - The North American AI supply chain remains robust, with ongoing demand for advanced equipment and materials expected to drive growth [36]

【长江电子】Feynman问世在即，LPU芯片开启PCB又一增长极 英伟达计划在GTC 2026大会上推出Feynman架构芯片，该产品的发布节奏较市场预期有所提前。 这一架构的核心技术突破在于采用3D堆叠方式，将专为推理任务优化的LPU芯片直接集成在GPU计算核心之上， 从而实现通用计算与专用计算在物理层面的深度融合。 新架构LPU芯片主要用于推理，以高多层方案为主，单芯片PCB价值量有望达到300-500美金，核心供应商建议关 注#胜宏科技、沪电股份、深南电路、景旺电子。 #坚定看好高确定性CoWoP技术+正交背板方案 CoWoP方案有望提前至27年底小批量、28年大批量，PCB单平米价值量或提升数倍至十倍，该方向下推荐关注 正交背板当前仍在正常稳步推进中，3月初计划进行新一轮样品测试，该方案预计在27年H2步入批量生产阶段，该 方向下看好低估值龙头公司，性价比凸显，推荐关注 英伟达计划在GTC 2026大会上推出Feynman架构芯片，该产品的发布节奏较市场预期有所提前。 这一架构的核心技术突破在于采用3D堆叠方式，将专为推理任务优化的LPU芯片直接集成在GPU计算核心之上， 从而实现通用计算与专用计算 ...

算力硬件方向涨幅居前，PCB、CPO、液冷服务器、算力芯片概念均表现强势，其中深南电路、大族激 光、广合科技、川润股份涨停。电力板块走强，其中赣能股份2连板，华银电力涨停。燃气轮机概念集 体大涨，其中应流股份、万泽股份、东方电气、常宝股份封涨停。小金属概念表现活跃，其中云南锗 业、章源钨业双双2连板。环保股尾盘拉升，其中中科环保、启迪环境封涨停。 虽然心态还可以，希望还有，目前的修正、休整应该是节后布局和调仓换股的需求，但过程有点煎熬。 房地产陷入调整，截至收盘大跌2.84%，租售同权、房地产开发、房地产服务等跌幅居前，其中华联控 股、城投控股、世联行等股东方均在6%上方。影视院线持续回撤，截至收盘下跌2.87%，其中博纳影业 跌停，横店影视下跌6.9%。 谨慎情绪延续，探底回升后再度回撤，全天维持在中轴附近弱势盘整，截至收盘沪指下跌0.01%，深成 指上涨0.19%，创业板指下跌0.29%。两市合计超2800只个股下跌，合计成交额2.54万亿。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The focus is on **NVIDIA** and the **AI PCB (Printed Circuit Board)** sector Core Points and Arguments - **NVIDIA's Performance**: - Fourth-quarter revenue increased by **73% year-over-year** to **$68.1 billion**, surpassing market expectations of **$65 billion** [1] - First-quarter revenue guidance is projected at **$78 billion**, reflecting a **77% year-over-year increase**, exceeding market expectations of **$73-75 billion** [1] - **Orthogonal Backplane Expectations**: - Anticipation for NVIDIA to showcase orthogonal backplane solutions at GTC, with large-scale shipments expected to begin in **2027** alongside the **Rubin Ultra 576 cabinet**, potentially adding approximately **$400 GPUPCB ASP** [2] - Orthogonal backplane remains the optimal solution for **tray-to-tray connections** under the **448G serdes upgrade demand** [2] - **CPO (Chiplet Packaging Option)**: - CPO integration is essential for interconnecting canisters, indicating no conflict with other technologies [2] - **LPU (Logic Processing Unit)**: - New LPU additions are expected to significantly enhance NVIDIA's inference capabilities [2] - Key benefits of LPU include: 1. Improved cost-performance ratio, benefiting inference and the overall AI industry [2] 2. Increased demand for high-speed interconnects, favoring PCB upgrades [2] 3. Optimization of AI investment structure, with PCB's share in AI BOM expected to rise from **3-5% to 5-10%** [2] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - Continued optimism for the **AI PCB** sector due to ongoing upgrades, application expansions, and increased demand for inference/ASIC [2] - Anticipated tight supply-demand dynamics for high-end production capacity in the industry until **2027**, with leading companies expected to demonstrate high growth and certainty in performance [2] - Recommended stocks include **Shengsheng Technology**, **Hua Dian Co.**, **Shenghong Technology**, **Shennan Circuit**, and potential beneficiaries like **NVIDIA** [2]