证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 22 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月22日 华源晨会精粹 20251222 固定收益 短期制约因素突出，当前经济或仍承压——利率周报：11 月经济数据与财 政收支数据相继披露，当前经济或仍持续承压。我们认为经济运行核心矛盾仍聚焦 于"旧动能调整拖累与新动能成长并存"，消费与投资的短期压力与财政收支的低 增长态势相互呼应。从经济运行基本面看，需求端或仍承压。消费与投资双引擎若 持续乏力，可能直接影响四季度经济增速预期，预计同比增速将较三季度有所放缓。 短期制约因素尤为突出：房地产市场仍在筑底阶段，居民消费短期仍可能保持谨慎 态度。2025 年 1-11 月财政收支情况显示，财政运行呈现"收入低增、支出中央地 方分化"的特征。当前经济与财政的运行态势，与 2025 年中央经济工作会议的政策 部署形成精准呼应。会议强化内需主导作用、突出企业创新主体地位，并新增"加 大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"的表述，为后续政策发力指明了方向。明年经济或呈 现弱修复态势，财政收支平衡压力或将持续。2026 年债市行情可能好于预期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the electric new and public utility sectors [2][5]. Core Insights - The 2025 China Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference was held, focusing on high-quality development and innovation in the photovoltaic sector [4][25]. - The wind power sector is advancing with international projects, such as the BC-Wind offshore wind project in Poland, which has a planned capacity of 390MW [4][26]. - Significant progress has been made in solid-state battery technology, enhancing the performance and stability of lithium batteries [4][27]. - The share of non-fossil energy consumption in China is expected to exceed the target of 20% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with substantial investments in renewable energy projects [4][27]. Industry Summary Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a transformation aimed at improving quality and efficiency, with a focus on technological innovation [4][25]. - The market is experiencing price adjustments in the supply chain, with recent increases in silicon material prices and expectations for further price stability [29][30]. - The average price for N-type battery cells has risen to 0.3 RMB per watt due to increased silver prices [32]. Wind Power Sector - The domestic wind power sector saw a significant increase in installed capacity, with 8.92GW added in October 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 34% [40]. - The BC-Wind project in Poland marks a notable international expansion for companies like 大金重工, which is manufacturing foundational components for the project [26]. Lithium Battery Sector - Research teams from Tsinghua University have made advancements in solid-state lithium metal batteries, improving their performance under high current densities and low temperatures [4][27]. Public Utility Sector - The investment in energy projects is projected to reach 3.54 trillion RMB in 2025, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [27]. - The transition to green and low-carbon energy is accelerating, with expectations for renewable energy to constitute over 50% of total power generation capacity by 2030 [5][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the photovoltaic sector such as 爱旭股份 and 隆基绿能, as well as key players in the wind power and lithium battery sectors [5][43].

Group 1 - The communication industry saw a net inflow of 57.14 billion yuan in main funds, leading the market [2][3] - The overall net inflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 17.43 billion yuan, ending a nine-day streak of net outflows [2] - Other industries with significant net inflows included electric power equipment (22.38 billion yuan) and electronics (11.57 billion yuan) [2] Group 2 - Among individual stocks, the top three with the highest net inflows were Zhongji Xuchuang (14.43 billion yuan), Xinyi Sheng (10.73 billion yuan), and Tian Tongxin (8.93 billion yuan) [3] - Haima Automobile also attracted a net inflow of 8.25 billion yuan, with its business strategy focusing on three main areas: customized vehicle platforms, hydrogen energy vehicle operations, and smart travel services [3] - A total of 75 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with notable outflows from Xue Ren Group, Pingtan Development, and Ningde Times [3][4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69% on December 22, with 22 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains. The top-performing sectors were Communication and Comprehensive, with increases of 4.28% and 2.63% respectively [2] - The Electric Equipment sector saw an increase of 1.05% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of capital in the two markets was 6.605 billion yuan, with 11 sectors experiencing net inflows. The Communication sector led with a net inflow of 7.516 billion yuan, followed by the Electronics sector with 6.073 billion yuan [2] - A total of 20 sectors experienced net outflows, with the Computer sector leading at a net outflow of 2.408 billion yuan, followed by the Media sector with 2.263 billion yuan [2] Electric Equipment Sector Performance - The Electric Equipment sector had a net capital inflow of 3.392 billion yuan, with 364 stocks in the sector. Out of these, 242 stocks rose, including 8 that hit the daily limit, while 112 stocks fell, including 1 that hit the lower limit [3] - Among the stocks with significant net inflows, Wolong Electric Drive topped the list with a net inflow of 2.126 billion yuan, followed by Sunshine Power and Enjie Co., with net inflows of 622 million yuan and 309 million yuan respectively [3] - The stocks with significant net outflows included CATL, Aerospace Machinery, and Aotai, with net outflows of 544 million yuan, 238 million yuan, and 140 million yuan respectively [5] Top Gainers in Electric Equipment Sector - The top gainers in the Electric Equipment sector included: - Wolong Electric Drive: +9.99%, turnover rate 10.58%, capital flow 2.126 billion yuan - Sunshine Power: +2.14%, turnover rate 3.57%, capital flow 621 million yuan - Enjie Co.: +8.32%, turnover rate 6.23%, capital flow 308 million yuan [4] Top Losers in Electric Equipment Sector - The top losers in the Electric Equipment sector included: - CATL: -0.58%, turnover rate 0.60%, capital flow -544 million yuan - Aerospace Machinery: -5.51%, turnover rate 15.27%, capital flow -238 million yuan - Aotai: -1.13%, turnover rate 4.31%, capital flow -140 million yuan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The main observation is that there was a net outflow of 974 million yuan in the main funds of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets at the end of the trading day on December 22, with specific sectors showing significant inflows [1] Group 1: Market Overview - At the end of the trading day, the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced a net outflow of 974 million yuan [1] - The electric equipment, banking, and pharmaceutical industries saw net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan each [1] Group 2: Individual Stocks - Yangguang Electric experienced a net inflow of over 200 million yuan, leading the individual stock inflows [1] - Aerospace Development, Wolong Electric Drive, Tongyu Communication, Tianfu Communication, and Haiguang Information each had net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market Index all experienced gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3917.36 points, up 0.69% [1] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 18,619.83 billion yuan, an increase of 1,360.34 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Various sectors showed positive performance, with notable gains in telecommunications, precious metals, electronics, non-ferrous metals, retail, oil and petrochemicals, chemicals, and power equipment [3] - Concepts such as Hainan Free Trade Zone, CPO, optical communication modules, duty-free, copper cable high-speed connections, PCB, storage chips, and unified market also performed actively [3] - Conversely, sectors like media, banking, education, light manufacturing, and textiles saw declines [3] Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 17.43 billion yuan, with the ChiNext seeing a net inflow of 20.31 billion yuan and the CSI 300 seeing a net inflow of 28.91 billion yuan [4] - The telecommunications sector had the highest net inflow of main funds at 57.14 billion yuan, followed by power equipment, electronics, and banking [4] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 2,298 stocks experienced net inflows, with 104 stocks receiving over 1 billion yuan in net inflows. The stock with the highest net inflow was Zhongji Xuchuang, with 14.43 billion yuan [6] - Conversely, 2,858 stocks faced net outflows, with 75 stocks seeing over 1 billion yuan in net outflows. The stock with the highest net outflow was Xue Ren Group, with 11.71 billion yuan [8] Institutional Activity - Institutional investors had a net buying of approximately 1.85 billion yuan, with the highest net purchase in Shen Nong Zhong Ye at about 2.24 billion yuan [10] - The stocks with significant net selling by institutions included Tongyu Communications, with a net outflow of approximately 1.2 billion yuan [10]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [3] Core Insights - The data center industry has become a core incremental application scenario for the power equipment sector, directly driving demand growth and technological iteration in power equipment [3][6] - The report emphasizes the need to incorporate multi-dimensional indicators from the AI industry to accurately assess the demand for power distribution equipment in data centers, given the capital expenditure scale and long investment return cycles in the data center sector [3][6] - The report outlines a three-part indicator system: 1. Demand side: Capital expenditure from leading cloud providers serves as a direct "weather vane" for short-term demand potential for power distribution equipment [3][6] 2. Supply chain: The investment rhythm in data centers is constrained by GPU supply, necessitating tracking of key supply chain data to validate demand progress [3][6] 3. AI application side: The development of AI applications directly impacts the strength and sustainability of capital expenditure cycles in data centers [3][6] Summary by Sections Demand Side: Sustained High Growth in Capital Expenditure - In Q3 2025, overseas cloud providers' capital expenditure reached $99.617 billion, a year-on-year increase of 80.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.54% [8] - Alibaba's capital expenditure in Q3 2025 was 31,501 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.10% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18.55% [13] - Tencent's capital expenditure in Q3 2025 was 12,983 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.05% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 32.05% [13] Supply Chain: Revenue Growth for Key Players - NVIDIA's revenue in Q3 2025 reached 362.571 billion yuan, a historical peak with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 24.63% and a year-on-year growth of 62.49% [18] - TSMC's revenue in November 2025 was 343.614 billion New Taiwan dollars, a year-on-year increase of 24.5% [24] - The CPU price index in October 2025 was 98.20, showing a slight recovery from 96.15 in September, while DRAM spot prices surged over 200% from $12.85 to $38.76 [27] Application Side: Steady Growth in AI Models and Applications - The report notes a steady increase in the number of AI models and application deployments, which directly influence the capital expenditure cycles in data centers [29] - The token call volume on the OpenRouter platform reached 5.85 trillion from December 9 to December 15, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.21% [34] - The price of tokens for models scoring over 40 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index dropped by over 50% in Q3 2025 [45]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" based on the expected performance relative to the benchmark indices [2][32]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in overseas demand for photovoltaic components, with exports in November 2025 reaching approximately $2.412 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.08% and a month-on-month increase of 6.84% [2][24]. - Domestic production of photovoltaic components saw a month-on-month decline of 2.43% in November 2025, while the demand for energy storage remains robust, with a projected production of 220 GWh for December 2025, marking a 5.3% increase [2][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies involved in the solar and storage sectors, recommending specific stocks such as Sungrow Power (300274.SZ) and Nandu Power (300068.SZ) due to their potential growth in the current market environment [2][30]. Summary by Sections Production - In November 2025, the overall production of photovoltaic components decreased by 2.43% compared to October, while energy storage battery production is expected to grow significantly [2][10][11]. Prices - As of December 17, 2025, the price of polysilicon remained stable at 52.00 CNY/kg, while the average price for TOPCon double-glass modules was reported at 0.69 CNY/W [2][7][12]. Domestic Demand - The domestic photovoltaic installation in October 2025 was 12.6 GW, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 30.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 38.3%. Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, the total installed capacity reached 252.87 GW, up 39.5% year-on-year [2][22]. Overseas Demand - The report notes that the export value of photovoltaic components in November 2025 was approximately $2.412 billion, with a cumulative export value from January to November 2025 reaching $25.885 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.89% [2][26].

Group 1: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry has emerged from a cyclical bottom, with demand maintaining unexpectedly high growth, leading to price stabilization and profit recovery in various segments [4][19] - In 2025, the domestic new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 16.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28%, driven by policies and market demand [19][20] - The battery segment is anticipated to see price increases and a cyclical upturn in 2026, benefiting from unexpected growth in energy storage demand and new technologies [4][48] Group 2: Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, optimizing the supply side and driving high demand for energy storage, with significant growth expected in 2026 [6][28] - The integration of energy storage and photovoltaic systems is expected to enhance the economic viability of storage solutions, leading to sustained high growth in the energy storage sector [6][36] - Key beneficiaries in the photovoltaic sector include leading companies in silicon materials and integrated component manufacturers, such as Tongwei Co., Ltd. [6][28] Group 3: Wind Power Industry - The domestic wind power installation is expected to remain high, with the "de-involution" orders stabilizing prices and improving overall industry profitability [7][8] - The global offshore wind power market is entering an expansion phase, driven by technological advancements and supportive policies, creating growth opportunities for domestic manufacturers [7][8] - Companies that have successfully entered overseas markets and secured significant orders are expected to see strong performance in the coming years [7][8] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment opportunities in the lithium battery sector should focus on companies with strong pricing power and profitability, such as Guoxuan High-Tech and other related beneficiaries [4][5] - In the photovoltaic sector, investment should target companies benefiting from the "de-involution" process and those involved in energy storage solutions, such as Sungrow Power Supply [6][28] - For the wind power industry, attention should be given to companies with established overseas operations and strong product profitability, particularly in offshore wind components [7][8]

Group 1 - Alibaba's DingTalk has initiated a secret project called "D Plan," potentially entering the AI hardware sector [1] - Moore Threads announced a new GPU architecture "Huagang" at its first MUSA developer conference, featuring a 50% increase in computing density compared to the previous generation, supporting full precision calculations from FP4 to FP64, and capable of scaling to over 100,000 nodes in intelligent computing clusters [1] - Shanghai Jiao Tong University's research team has achieved a breakthrough in all-optical computing chips, enabling large-scale semantic media generation models [1] Group 2 - Guojin Securities remains optimistic about AI-PCB and core computing hardware, as well as the Apple supply chain and self-controlled beneficiary industries, predicting explosive growth in ASIC numbers from major companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft between 2026 and 2027 [2] - The demand for AI copper-clad laminates is strong, with leading manufacturers in mainland China expected to benefit due to slow overseas expansion [2] - The ChiNext 50 Index (399673) reflects the performance of 50 stocks with high liquidity and market capitalization in the ChiNext market, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 71.14% of the index [2]