Core Viewpoint - The market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a strong rally, with the China Securities 800 Non-Ferrous Metals Index showing a 62.47% return over the past six months, indicating robust investor confidence in the sector [29][5]. Group 1: Market Drivers - Global manufacturing activity is showing signs of recovery, providing a fundamental support for metal demand, while expectations of potential U.S. import tariffs are leading to a "stockpiling" trend for specific metals like copper [6][33]. - The market anticipates a rise in the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is contributing to a rebound in precious metals, with silver recently reaching historical highs [6][33]. - Structural constraints in global copper supply are becoming increasingly evident, with processing fees for copper concentrate declining, raising concerns about future production capacity [6][33]. - The global energy transition is driving long-term demand growth for non-ferrous metals, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [6][33]. - Emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics are creating new demand for specialty metals like tin and rare earth materials, reshaping their value assessment [6][33]. Group 2: Index Characteristics - The China Securities 800 Non-Ferrous Metals Index is a representative tool for investors in the A-share non-ferrous metals sector, focusing on mid to large-cap companies with good liquidity and representativeness [3][4]. - The index covers the entire non-ferrous metal industry chain, including mining, smelting, and processing, encompassing all major sub-sectors such as industrial metals, precious metals, and energy metals [10][33]. - The index is weighted towards leading companies in the industry, effectively reflecting the performance of core assets and capturing the main contradictions in industry development [10][33]. Group 3: Fund Overview - The only public fund closely tracking the China Securities 800 Non-Ferrous Metals Index is the CITIC Prudential China Securities 800 Non-Ferrous Index Fund (LOF), established on August 30, 2013, and transitioned to an open-end fund on January 1, 2021 [34][41]. - The fund aims to achieve effective tracking of the index through rigorous quantitative management and investment discipline, with a target tracking error of less than 0.35% daily and 4% annually [38][34]. - The fund's top holdings include leading companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, with a significant weight in its portfolio, aligning closely with the index characteristics [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a rise and subsequent pullback, with the largest non-ferrous ETF, Huabao (159876), reaching a peak increase of 1.25% before settling at a 0.1% gain. Since its low point on April 8, the ETF has accumulated a total increase of 91.08% [1][7]. Group 1: ETF Performance - Huabao ETF broke through its highest point since its listing, indicating a potential buying signal for investors. As of the report, the ETF saw a net subscription of 9 million units [1][7]. - The ETF's trading volume was 2.097 billion, with a turnover rate of 4.11% and a fluctuation of 1.56% [2][8]. - The ETF's net value performance over various periods shows significant increases, including a 85.36% rise over 120 days and a 73.46% rise over 250 days [2][8]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Major gainers among component stocks include Zhongkuang Resources, which rose over 4%, and Steel Research, which increased by over 3%. Other notable stocks include Baiyin Nonferrous and Xiyang Silver, both rising over 2% [3][9]. - Key weighted stocks such as Zijin Mining, China Aluminum, and Northern Rare Earth also showed positive performance [3][9]. Group 3: Market Trends and Analysis - The international COMEX gold price reached a historical high of $4,555 per ounce, currently stabilizing above $4,510 per ounce, indicating strong demand for precious metals [10]. - Analysts predict that the bull market for precious metals will continue into 2026, driven by financial attributes and industrial demand, with gold serving as a hedge against global fiscal and monetary uncertainties [10][11]. - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to benefit from diverse investment strategies, including the demand for strategic metals like lithium and rare earths, which are essential for technological advancements and economic recovery [10][11]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Huabao ETF and its associated funds provide comprehensive coverage of various non-ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, making it a suitable option for diversifying investment risks [12].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth trends in China's non-ferrous metal production, indicating a steady increase in output and providing insights into future market dynamics from 2025 to 2031 [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - In October 2025, China's production of ten non-ferrous metals reached 6.95 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of these ten non-ferrous metals totaled 68.143 million tons, marking a cumulative growth of 3.1% [1] Group 2: Companies Involved - Listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector include Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), China Aluminum (601600), Northern Rare Earth (600111), Jiangxi Copper (600362), Yunnan Copper (000878), Chihong Zn & Ge (600497), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Western Mining (601168), and Shenghe Resources (600392) [1] Group 3: Research Insights - The report is published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China, which specializes in providing in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1]

晨会纪要（2025/12/24） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.24） 固定收益研究 成交规模增长，信用利差走阔——信用债周报 公司研究 享西部资源红利，乘铜市景气东风——西部矿业（601168）深度报告 行业研究 美国通胀缓和，金价获得支撑——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/12/24） 中央和地方持续积极优化房地产政策，托举政策持续发力，积极释放刚性和改善性住房需求，对推动房地 产止跌回稳发挥了积极的作用。尽管当前房地产市场还处在新旧模式转换时期，但随着稳楼市各项政策显 效，房地产市场继续朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进。基于城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效 为主的阶段这一论断，下阶段的目标是要积极构建房地产发展新模式，坚持长短结合、标本兼治，持续用 力推动房地产市场高质量发展，后续政策出台的节奏和力度值得期待。地产债方面，销售复苏进程将对债 券估值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant increases in various metal prices and a notable performance of the Huabao ETF (159876) since its low point in April 2023, indicating potential investment opportunities [1][6][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao ETF (159876) has seen a cumulative increase of 91.08% since its low on April 8, 2023, with a recent intraday gain of 1.25% [1]. - The ETF has broken through its historical high since its listing, suggesting a potential buying signal, with a net subscription of 3 million units reported [1]. - The non-ferrous metals index has shown varied annual performance, with a notable decline in 2022 and 2023, but a positive outlook for 2024 [3]. Group 2: Key Stocks Performance - Major stocks in the sector include Zhongkuang Resources, which rose by 6.20%, and Xinye Silver Tin, which increased by 5.76% [4]. - Other notable performers include Yongxing Materials and Huayou Cobalt, both rising over 3% [3][4]. - The overall market capitalization and trading volume of these stocks indicate robust investor interest and activity [4]. Group 3: Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Precious metals like gold and silver have reached historical highs, with platinum and copper also hitting significant price milestones [6][7]. - The ongoing global monetary easing and strategic importance of non-ferrous metals are expected to drive prices higher, with forecasts suggesting a bullish trend in the coming years [7][8]. - The Chinese government's policy initiatives aim to stabilize and grow the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of 5% in industry value added from 2025 to 2026 [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the non-ferrous metals sector is entering a new cycle driven by supply-demand balance, with prices likely to continue rising [8]. - The Huabao ETF is positioned to provide diversified exposure across various metals, making it a suitable option for investors looking to capitalize on the sector's growth [9].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is a domestic high-end aluminum alloy new material manufacturer, focusing on aluminum deep processing, supported by a dual industrial chain of coal, electricity, and green hydropower aluminum [6][17]. - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is nearing its capacity ceiling, making it difficult for prices to drop, while demand from new energy vehicles and the power sector is expected to provide growth, offsetting the drag from real estate [6][9]. - Cost pressures from alumina are expected to ease, allowing for significant performance elasticity as new capacities come online and alumina prices decline [6][7]. - The company has launched an employee stock ownership plan and plans to distribute at least 60% of its distributable profits as cash dividends over the next three years, indicating strong confidence in future growth [6][35]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 22,761 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 704 million yuan, down 39.3% year-on-year [5]. - For 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of 1,833 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 160.5% year-on-year, with earnings per share projected at 0.46 yuan [5][6]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 9.7% in 2024 to 15.1% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) forecasted to rise from 4.8% to 11.1% [5][6]. Industry Overview - The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is approaching its ceiling, with the built capacity as of November 2025 at 45.24 million tons, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [37]. - The demand for aluminum is shifting towards new energy vehicles and electronic power sectors, which are expected to drive growth despite a slowdown in traditional construction demand [47][49]. - The report highlights that the global aluminum market is experiencing a structural change, with new consumption scenarios emerging, such as lightweighting and the substitution of aluminum for copper and steel [49].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, including gold and silver, have reached historic highs, driven by global geopolitical changes and investor demand for safe assets [2][3]. Precious Metals - On December 24, spot gold surpassed $4,519 per ounce, while spot silver exceeded $72 per ounce, both setting new historical records [1]. - As of the latest report, London spot gold and COMEX gold futures hit record highs of $4,519.81 and $4,547.5 per ounce, respectively, with both showing over 72% increase year-to-date [2]. - London spot silver rose by 3.43% yesterday and continued to climb, reaching a peak of $72.094 per ounce today, with COMEX silver futures hitting $72.24 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 150% increase year-to-date [2]. - Analysts suggest that factors such as international trade dynamics and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are driving the prices of precious metals, alongside a strong demand for safe-haven assets amid global geopolitical shifts [2]. Base Metals - Copper, regarded as a global economic indicator, reached a new high of $12,159.5 per ton on the LME [3]. - The tight supply situation is expected to support higher copper prices, with emerging demand from AI investments and traditional sectors anchoring price movements [3]. - However, U.S. copper import tariffs may introduce volatility in trading patterns [3]. Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed the A-share market this year, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 87.36% year-to-date, leading among 31 industry indices [4][5]. - The mining ETF (159690) tracking the non-ferrous mining index has seen a remarkable increase of 97.29% this year, indicating strong market performance [4][5]. - Analysts from Dongfang Securities and Ping An Securities recommend focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors, anticipating continued price increases driven by strong demand and weakening dollar credit [4][6]. - The overall profitability of the non-ferrous metals industry has improved, with a year-on-year net profit growth of 41.43% in the first three quarters of 2025, and a significant increase of 50.81% in the third quarter alone [5][6].

Core Insights - The metal-based 3D printing materials industry is experiencing significant growth, with the domestic market expected to reach approximately 5 billion yuan in 2024, entering a phase of large-scale production [1][10] - The industry ecosystem is characterized by clear upstream, midstream, and downstream divisions, with upstream relying on mineral resources and equipment supply, midstream focusing on the production of various metal powders, and downstream catering to diverse fields such as aerospace, medical, and automotive [1][7] Industry Overview - Metal-based 3D printing materials are essential for additive manufacturing, primarily in the form of metal powders, which must meet specific requirements for particle size and flowability to ensure high-performance final products [2][3] - The industry can be categorized into three main types of materials: common alloys (e.g., titanium alloys, stainless steel), special metals (e.g., refractory metals, high-entropy alloys), and remanufacturing materials (e.g., nickel-based alloys) [3][5] Market Growth - The global 3D printing market is projected to reach $21.9 billion by 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.31%, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.34% from 2018 to 2024 [7][8] - The Chinese 3D printing market is expected to grow to 42.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 15.26%, significantly outpacing global growth [8][10] Competitive Landscape - The industry features a competitive landscape with leading companies like PLT (铂力特) and AVIC (中航迈特) at the forefront, alongside specialized firms focusing on niche materials [11][12] - The competition has evolved from equipment-based to an integrated ecosystem where "materials-processes-applications" are deeply intertwined, emphasizing the need for comprehensive solutions tailored to specific applications [11][12] Development Trends - The future of the metal-based 3D printing materials industry will focus on the integration of design, materials, and processes, leveraging AI for intelligent optimization and targeted development of high-performance materials [12][13] - Application scenarios are expanding from small-batch custom manufacturing in aerospace and medical fields to large-scale production in consumer electronics and new energy vehicles, driven by significant improvements in printing efficiency [14][15] - The industry chain will evolve towards "self-controllable" and "efficient collaboration," emphasizing domestic production of key materials and the establishment of intelligent recycling systems [15]

Market Overview - On December 23, Hong Kong stocks experienced a pullback, with all three major indices closing lower. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.11% to 25,774.14 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.69% to 5,488.89 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 0.29% to 8,913.83 points [3][4] - The overall market turnover was HKD 157.1 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 600 million [3][4] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector showed significant volatility, with some gold stocks experiencing declines. Notable declines included China Nonferrous Mining (-3.77%), China Daye Nonferrous Metals (-3.12%), and China Silver Group (-2.74%) [5][6] - The electrical sector performed strongly, with Dongfang Electric rising over 8%, and other companies like Harbin Electric and China High-Speed Transmission also showing gains [7][8] - Most domestic bank stocks saw increases, with Huishang Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China Hong Kong, and Bohai Bank all rising by over 1% [9][10] Company Highlights - Dongfang Electric is in discussions with U.S. data center clients regarding potential sales of gas turbine generator sets, driven by strong demand and attractive pricing [7] - On December 23, Lighter Health Group was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, closing up 158.82% on its first day of trading, following a 127.95% increase in pre-listing trading [11] - Lighter Health Group, founded in 2014, focuses on comprehensive health management services and health insurance solutions, having raised over USD 100 million through multiple funding rounds [11]

大通县着力构建"党委领导、政府推动、企业主体"的人才培养协同机制，围绕铝产业人才"引育留用"全 链条精准发力，通过精准招商签约年产20万吨铝等项目，衍生出工艺研发等新兴岗位人才需求；认真落 实"一企一策"工作举措，指导中铝青海分公司等重点企业制定《职工（劳模）创新工作室管理办法》等 制度，有效打通技术人才成长通道；围绕高端铝镁合金等新材料开展技术研发与人才培育，形成"以才 引才、以研育才"的良性循环；紧扣产业品牌建设，打造"一室一站一中心"创新矩阵，目前已建成7个劳 模和工匠人才创新工作室、3个省级企业技术中心、1个铝基新材料中试基地；实施"以名命名"激励机 制，推广《李斌MIG射流过渡铝母线焊接操作法》等职工先进操作法110项，极大激发了技术人才的创 新活力。 本报西宁讯 （记者 陶然） 12月10日，记者从西宁市大通回族土族自治县北川工业园区获悉，大通县聚 焦铝产业高质量发展，持续建强人才队伍，近3年累计推动完成铝产业技术革新项目864项，获得国家专 利授权65项，培养技术骨干400余名，为"青海绿铝·高原铝谷"产业品牌建设提供坚实人才支撑。 为打造人才代际接力"生力军"，大通县以全国劳动模范、全国技术能 ...