Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,835, up 0.22% for the day and up 4.70% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,068, up 1.29% for the day and up 2.49% year-to-date [1] - The US markets saw declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.34% and the S&P 500 down 0.84% [1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index rose by 0.99% with a year-to-date increase of 7.80% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index increased by 1.65%, showing a year-to-date growth of 14.84% [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.07%, with a year-to-date decline of 0.88% [1][2] Chinese Stock Market Insights - The Chinese stock market rebounded, with materials, industrials, and defense sectors leading gains, while information technology and telecommunications sectors declined [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 952 million, with Tencent, China Mobile, and Xiaomi being the top net buyers [3] - Concerns over potential VAT increases on financial and internet services led to declines in internet platform stocks, although these rumors were debunked by experts [3] Aluminum Industry Analysis - The global supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain tight until 2026, supporting higher aluminum prices, projected to increase by 15% year-on-year [4] - China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization is nearing saturation, with a forecasted capacity limit of 45 million tons by December 2025 [4] - The report initiates coverage on Innovation Industries (2788 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 32, citing cost advantages from green energy and expansion in Saudi Arabia [7] Insurance Industry Insights - The insurance sector in China is projected to see premium income growth, with life insurance premiums expected to reach CNY 3.56 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [5] - December saw a recovery in premium income, with life insurance premiums growing by 10.1% year-on-year [5] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance sector, recommending stocks like China Ping An (2318 HK) and AIA Group (1299 HK) with target prices of HKD 90 and HKD 89, respectively [7]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market's non-ferrous metal sector experienced a rebound on February 4, with notable increases in various companies' stock prices [2] - Minmetals Resources saw a rise of over 5%, while Jiangxi Copper Co. increased by more than 3% [2] - Other companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Zijin Mining International also reported gains, with increases close to 3% and nearly 2% respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for China Hongqiao, with a revised target price of HK$45, up from HK$39, reflecting a 27.5% upside potential from the current price of HK$35.30 [1][3]. Core Insights - The global aluminium deficit is expected to persist through 2026-27, driven by high utilization rates in China and limited new capacity overseas. This is anticipated to lead to a 15% year-on-year increase in aluminium prices in 2026 [1][7]. - Earnings forecasts have been revised upwards, with a projected core net profit of RMB26.2 billion for 2025, representing a 7% year-on-year growth, and an acceleration to 34% growth in 2026, primarily due to higher aluminium prices [1][7]. - The report indicates that a 1% increase in aluminium prices could boost 2026 earnings by 2.3%, while a 1% decrease in coal prices would increase earnings by 0.3% [1][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for China Hongqiao are as follows: RMB156,596 million for 2025, RMB167,859 million for 2026, and RMB162,737 million for 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 0.3%, 7.2%, and -3.1% [2][26]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB26,262.3 million for 2025, RMB36,049.2 million for 2026, and RMB32,879.0 million for 2027, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of RMB2.71, RMB3.63, and RMB3.31 [2][26]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 12.7x for 2025, 8.7x for 2026, and 9.5x for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [2][26]. Market and Share Performance - The market capitalization of China Hongqiao is approximately HK$350.3 billion, with an average turnover of HK$1,565.4 million over the past three months [4]. - The share price has shown significant performance, with a 73.5% increase over the past six months [6].

港股通数据统计周报 2026.01.26-2026.02.01 | 分析师： | 蒋开来 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BWL381 | | 联系电话： | 852-6430 1060 | | 邮箱： | jiangkl@cnzsqh.hk | 1 目录 2 l 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 l 港股通净买入/卖出行业分布 l 港股通前十大活跃个股 l 港股通与南下资金介绍 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 3 港股通本周前十大净买入公司（2026.01.26-2026.02.01） | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 行业 | 港股通持股变动数 | 净买入金额（亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 9992.HK | 泡泡玛特 | 可选消费 | 13440803 | 30.05 | | 2 | 0700.HK | 腾讯控股 | 信息技术 | 4621172 | 28.00 | | 3 | 1810.HK | 小米集团-W | 信息技术 | 49988528 | 17.75 | | 4 | 2628.HK | 中国人寿 | ...

Price Trends - The average price of Nanhai Nonferrous Aluminum in Foshan on February 3 is reported at 23,520, with a decrease of 360 [1][2] - The average price of Guangdong Nanchu South China Aluminum is 23,310, down by 400 [1][2] - China Hongqiao Aluminum's average price is 23,420, reflecting a decline of 410 [1][2] - The Shanghai spot aluminum price averages at 23,290, also down by 410 [1][2] Price Ranges - The price range for Nanhai Nonferrous Aluminum in Foshan is between 23,470 and 23,570 [1][2] - Guangdong Nanchu South China Aluminum has a price range of 23,280 to 23,340 [1][2] - The price range for Shanghai spot aluminum is between 23,270 and 23,310 [1][2]

上周，贵金属经历了一轮惊心动魄的"高台跳水"。1月30日，白银日内暴跌，创下1980年以来最大单日跌幅；黄金日内则跌超10%，同样刷新了过去几十年 的单日跌幅纪录。表面上看，金、银巨幅波动与美国总统特朗普在社交平台上的表态有关，他打算提名鹰派色彩浓厚的前美联储理事会成员凯文.沃什担任 下一任美联储主席。 消息一出，美元应声反弹，美债利率抬升，全球流动性收紧预期升温。而在超买环境下本就刚刚经历了加速上涨的贵金属，则是在短时间内巨幅回撤。笔者 认为，以上是市场典型的"膝跳反应"：交易员们正迅速定价一个更偏紧缩的货币政策未来。 然而，尽管在一夜之间资产价格的运行趋势似乎就发生了巨大偏移，但对于敏锐的投资者而言，市场情绪宣泄过后，此时可能恰恰是甄别优质资产、重新布 局有着长期趋势的品种的绝佳窗口。就拿同为金属，但又具备独特韧性与强大成长逻辑的铝来说，刚性供给约束与持续增长的需求形成的剪刀差有望进一步 扩大，而这也意味着二级市场以中国宏桥(01378)为代表的相关标的将持续受到资金青睐。更不消说，以交易视角看，本轮贵金属尤其是白银品种的调整， 抑或会促使里面的投机性资金转向电解铝等长期看成长性与确定性均更强的方向。 市 ...

消息一出，美元应声反弹，美债利率抬升，全球流动性收紧预期升温。而在超买环境下本就刚刚经历了加速上涨的贵金属，则是在短时间内巨幅回撤。笔者 认为，以上是市场典型的"膝跳反应"：交易员们正迅速定价一个更偏紧缩的货币政策未来。 然而，尽管在一夜之间资产价格的运行趋势似乎就发生了巨大偏移，但对于敏锐的投资者而言，市场情绪宣泄过后，此时可能恰恰是甄别优质资产、重新布 局有着长期趋势的品种的绝佳窗口。就拿同为金属，但又具备独特韧性与强大成长逻辑的铝来说，刚性供给约束与持续增长的需求形成的剪刀差有望进一步 扩大，而这也意味着二级市场以中国宏桥（01378）为代表的相关标的将持续受到资金青睐。更不消说，以交易视角看，本轮贵金属尤其是白银品种的调 整，抑或会促使里面的投机性资金转向电解铝等长期看成长性与确定性均更强的方向。 市场"膝跳反应"，电解铝料强者恒强 特朗普提名凯文·沃什执掌美联储引发一系列连锁反应，尽管一时间全球资本市场阴云密布，但智通财经认为愈是在这种时刻，理性的投资者更需要忽略宏 观"噪音"，而更加专注于中观视角下产业自身的基本面与投资逻辑。 1月最后一周，氧化铝价格下跌0.57%至2635元/吨；电解铝方面，沪 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,954.92, up by 179.35 points or 0.67% as of February 2, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 27,021.10 and a low of 26,800.30 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 40.725 million shares [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 139.961, increasing by 3.91% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 595.694, down by 0.47% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] Stock Price Movements - Tencent Holdings: Latest price HKD 598.500, down by HKD 7.500 or 1.24% [3] - Alibaba Group: Latest price HKD 163.300, down by HKD 5.900 or 3.49% [3] - HSBC Holdings: Latest price HKD 134.700, down by HKD 1.900 or 1.39% [3] - AIA Group: Latest price HKD 89.050, down by HKD 1.300 or 1.44% [3] - Meituan: Latest price HKD 94.850, down by HKD 2.350 or 2.42% [3] - BYD Company: Latest price HKD 91.000, down by HKD 6.750 or 6.91% [3] - Kuaishou Technology: Latest price HKD 77.000, down by HKD 3.150 or 3.93% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [11]. Core Insights - The domestic copper inventory is beginning to decrease, which may lead to stronger prices [6]. - The gold market is expected to stabilize and rise further due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The aluminum supply remains rigid, supporting the investment outlook for the aluminum sector [11]. - Tin prices are expected to be supported by tight supply conditions [11]. - Antimony prices are rebounding after a six-month decline, indicating a positive outlook for the antimony sector [11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) has shown significant performance with a 1-month increase of 22.6%, a 3-month increase of 35.7%, and a 12-month increase of 128.5% [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices reached $4981.85 per ounce, with a week-on-week increase of $35.60, or 0.72%. Silver prices were $103.19 per ounce, up $4.19, or 4.23% [4]. Copper and Aluminum - Copper prices closed at $13,440 per ton on the LME, up $460 per ton, or 3.54%. SHFE copper closed at ¥103,170 per ton, up ¥2,120, or 2.10% [6]. - Domestic aluminum prices were ¥24,640 per ton, with a week-on-week increase of ¥510 [7]. Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin prices were ¥423,630 per ton, down ¥110, or 0.03%. The supply and demand for tin are weak, leading to a price fluctuation around high levels [9]. - Antimony prices remain supported due to tight supply conditions, with current prices at ¥160,000 per ton [10]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in various sectors, including Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others across gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [12].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (ICBC, 159691) closed down 3.71% on February 2, with a trading volume of 472 million yuan [1] - The fund was established on March 30, 2023, with an annual management fee of 0.45% and a custody fee of 0.07% [1] - As of January 30, 2024, the fund's latest share count was 6.306 billion, with a total size of 8.691 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.43% decrease in shares and a 3.03% increase in size since December 31, 2025 [1] Group 2 - The current fund managers are Liu Weilin and He Shun, with Liu managing since March 30, 2023, achieving a return of 39.18%, while He is set to manage from May 30, 2024, with a return of 16.38% [2] - The fund's top holdings include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (14.55%), China Shenhua Energy (9.65%), and China Pacific Insurance (8.90%), among others [2][3]