当前多晶硅市场僵局持续，主要受供需两侧因素共同制约。需求方面，银浆等关 键辅材价格持续高位导致电池片生产成本居高不下，叠加组件端海外订单放量不 足，采购意愿低迷；同时春节临近加剧了硅片、电池企业开工计划的不确定性，进 一步抑制短期需求。供应方面，头部企业大幅减产或停产导致硅料供应持续收缩， 一定程度上缓和了供需矛盾，也削弱了企业主动降价的意愿。 截至本周，一家头部企业已全面停产，叠加另外两家企业减产落地，预计 1月份 多晶硅产量环比大幅减少15%，与同期硅片企业的排产规模基本匹配，市场累库速度 显著放缓，供需弱平衡格局进一步巩固。从排产计划看，2月份多晶硅产量将进一步 下调至8.2-8.5万吨，供应收缩力度持续加大。 据安泰科统计， 本周多晶硅主流产品均无成交。观望情绪持续主导市场，全周几 乎无规模性成交，仅极个别企业达成小额试探性订单，新单签约量近乎停滞。尽管 部分企业为试探市场下调报价，但下游采购意愿持续低迷，以消化库存和僵持观望 为主，未因报价松动而启动补库，导致调价难以转化为实际成交。 | 3-1 M J 20 M T T T T T T T T + : | | | --- | --- | | 四川永 ...

银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 28 日 0 / 49 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：压力有所减轻 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：股债跷跷板 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 | 盘面走势偏强 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外盘走势现分歧，郑糖底部震荡 6 | | | 油脂板块：油脂有所分化 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货稳定，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货震荡运行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：整体变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价延续震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈，关注资金扰动 14 | | 铁矿：终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：估值偏低存在修复需求，短期震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：特朗普"暗示"弱美元，金银维持强势 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：美元信任危机 贵 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.1%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.2% and 1.2%, respectively[1] - International oil and gold prices surged, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, leading to gains in leading oil and gold stocks[1] - The latest CCL index reported at 145.54, a weekly increase of 0.63%, indicating a recovery in Hong Kong residential prices[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. durable goods orders for November increased by 5.3%, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast of 3.1% and the previous value of -2.1%[3] - In China, the transaction volume of new homes in 30 major cities reached 1.19 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 32.3%[3] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector saw most stocks decline, while Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK) rose due to concerns over Nipah virus infections in India[4] - The automotive sector experienced a decline, with January retail sales expected to be around 1.8 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 20.4%[5] - Gold prices reached a new high, surpassing $5,000 per ounce, boosting demand for gold products and leading to gains in related stocks[5]

Group 1: Offshore Wind Power - In 2022, the procurement capacity of offshore wind power units in mainland China reached 8.42 gigawatts, with Mingyang Smart Energy (601615.SH) leading at 2.1 gigawatts and Goldwind Technology (02208) ranking fourth at 1.2 gigawatts [1] - The stock prices of Mingyang Smart Energy and Goldwind Technology have significantly risen at the beginning of this year, driven by positive sentiment surrounding commercial aerospace and solar energy in space [1] - The report suggests investors shift their focus to Dongfang Cable (603606.SH) in the upstream wind power sector [1] Group 2: Photovoltaic Industry - The A-share photovoltaic industry index has significantly outperformed the market, driven by optimistic sentiment regarding solar energy in space and commercial aerospace [1] - The report recommends stock selection to focus on companies with strong profit growth prospects, such as Dongfang Cable, Daqo New Energy (DQ.US), and Xiexin Technology (03800) [1] - In 2022, the installed capacity of energy storage systems in China surged by 73%, with Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) expected to benefit from policy reforms and rising demand in the high-end market [1] Group 3: Gas Utility Sector - The outlook for the Chinese gas utility sector is cautious due to weak growth in industrial gas consumption, limited margin improvement, and a continuous decline in new connections [2] - The warm winter in the fourth quarter of last year resulted in only slight growth in natural gas sales, with expectations that some companies may not meet their 2025 annual gas consumption guidance [2] - Kunlun Energy (00135) is identified as the only company actively engaging in capital recovery within the sector and is considered the industry favorite [2] - Caution is advised regarding China Resources Gas (01193) due to slow progress in share buybacks and weak operational trends [2]

Core Insights - Hangzhou Sunrise Chip Technology Co., Ltd. has completed nearly 3 billion yuan in strategic financing within one year [3] - The financing round includes participation from at least 25 well-known VC/PE institutions, large enterprises, and state-owned capital [4] - The funds will be specifically used for the R&D of next-generation inference GPUs, large-scale production, and ecosystem development [5] Company Overview - Sunrise is a domestic full-stack self-developed AI computing chip company focused on high-performance GPUs and multi-modal scene inference chip R&D and commercialization [6] - Originally part of SenseTime's large chip division, Sunrise became an independent entity at the end of 2024 and has been operating independently for just over a year [7] - With 8 years of technological accumulation, 2 billion yuan in R&D investment, and engineering validation of two generations of mass-produced chips, Sunrise has become a core player in the domestic GPU replacement market [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy changes in China regarding the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic and battery products aim to address the "involution" competition in the new energy sector, promoting healthier industry development and supporting the global green transition [1][3]. Export Tax Rebate Changes - Starting April 1, 2026, China will fully cancel the 9% export tax rebate for 249 photovoltaic-related products, marking the first complete cancellation since 2013 [2]. - The export tax rebate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% until the end of 2026, after which it will be completely eliminated [2]. - The adjustments are intended to combat the adverse effects of low-price competition and to ensure that the export tax rebate does not inadvertently subsidize foreign buyers [4][10]. Industry Competition and Regulation - The photovoltaic industry has been experiencing severe "involution" competition, leading to declining export prices and profit losses for domestic companies [4]. - The Chinese Photovoltaic Industry Association has indicated that the current practices have transformed the export tax rebate into a subsidy for foreign markets, increasing the risk of international trade disputes [4]. - Recent measures include strengthening antitrust regulations and promoting self-discipline within the industry to mitigate irrational competition [5][8]. Industry Self-Regulation Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has been actively promoting self-regulation in the battery sector, including organizing meetings to discuss industry competition and development [6][7]. - Regulatory bodies are focusing on enhancing market supervision, optimizing capacity management, and ensuring product quality to foster a healthier competitive environment [7][8]. Long-term Industry Outlook - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to lead to a rationalization of export prices and a reduction in trade friction, ultimately benefiting the industry's long-term health [10][12]. - The focus is shifting towards technological innovation and quality improvement, with an emphasis on developing high-value products such as high-efficiency photovoltaic cells and long-duration energy storage batteries [12].

《商道创投网》2026年1月26日从官方获悉：杭州曦望芯科智能科技有限公司（以下简称"曦望"）近日 完成了由三一集团旗下华胥基金、范式智能、杭州数据集团、正大机器人、协鑫科技、游族网络、北京 利尔等产业投资方，以及无极资本、IDG资本、心资本、高榕创投、中金资本、普华资本、松禾资本、 易方达资本、工银投资、海通开元、越秀产业基金、银泰投资、国元基金、粤民投、华民投等国内知名 VC/PE机构联合投资的近30亿元战略融资，同时获得诚通混改基金、杭州金投、杭州高新金投等国资背 景资本的鼎力加持。 《商道创投网》创业家会员·单位简介 《商道创投网》创投生态圈·本轮投融观点是什么？ 曦望（Sunrise）是一家专注于高性能GPU及多模态场景推理芯片研发与商业化的国产全栈自研人工智 能算力芯片企业。其前身是商汤大芯片部门，2024年底分拆独立运营。凭借八年技术沉淀、二十亿研发 投入及两代量产芯片的工程化验证，曦望已成为国产GPU替代的核心力量。公司通过技术创新和深度产 业协同，致力于为千行百业提供成本降低十倍、能效比突破的智能算力基石，推动各行业的智能化发 展，并助力实现通用人工智能（AGI）的普惠化目标。 商道创投网创 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - For polysilicon, due to production cuts by Tongwei Co., Ltd. and GCL Technology, polysilicon production decreased in January and February, and inventory significantly accumulated. The spot price has dropped, and future prices are expected to decline further under high inventory and weak demand. The short - term futures should be treated with a bearish view [4]. - For industrial silicon, downstream demand has weakened due to organic silicon and polysilicon production cuts. Although there are unconfirmed rumors of large - scale production cuts by major manufacturers, if they materialize, it will reverse the supply - demand situation in February. The futures price may fluctuate strongly in the short term and rise after actual production cuts. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. Summary by Chapter Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - **Production and Inventory**: Tongwei Co., Ltd. stopped all polysilicon production, and GCL Technology cut production. In January, production dropped to around 90,000 tons, and in February, it fell below 85,000 tons. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers soared to 330,000 tons [4]. - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot market transactions increased, with a volume of nearly 30,000 tons in the second half of the week and a price range of 45 - 49 yuan/kg. The spot price has significantly decreased, and future prices may continue to fall, with a support level of 42 - 45 yuan/kg [4]. - **Futures Market**: With low trading volume and increased random fluctuations in the market, a short - term bearish view is recommended, with a reference price range of (45000, 52000). Attention should be paid to next week's important meetings [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, adopt a bearish view and participate cautiously due to low trading volume. There are no recommendations for arbitrage and options [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the weekly production of DMC decreased by 0.61% to 42,900 tons, polysilicon production decreased by 7.4% to 20,400 tons. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 58.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.9 percentage points to 59.3%. The weekly production of industrial silicon was 76,200 tons, a decrease of 2.78%. The total number of open furnaces decreased by 3 to 219. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 556,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 215,800 tons, an increase of 5600 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory was 234,300 tons, an increase of 1300 tons [6]. - **Trading Logic**: The demand for industrial silicon has weakened due to production cuts in organic silicon and polysilicon. If the large - scale production cuts by major manufacturers are implemented, the monthly production will decrease by 60,000 - 70,000 tons, reversing the supply - demand situation in February. The rumors of production cuts have boosted manufacturers' confidence in holding prices. In the short term, the futures price may fluctuate strongly, and it may rise after actual production cuts [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a reference price range of (8600, 9500). There are no recommendations for options and arbitrage [7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market Performance**: This week, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, while the spot price changed little, and there was no large - scale hedging [10]. - **Downstream Demand**: The production of DMC and polysilicon decreased, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy was slightly adjusted. The weekly production of DMC was 42,900 tons, a decrease of 0.61%, and the weekly production of polysilicon was 20,400 tons, a decrease of 7.4%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 58.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.9 percentage points to 59.3% [13]. - **Production**: The weekly production of industrial silicon was 76,200 tons, a decrease of 2.78%. The total number of open furnaces decreased by 3 to 219. If major manufacturers implement production cuts, the monthly production will decrease by 60,000 - 70,000 tons [24]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon was 556,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 215,800 tons, an increase of 5600 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory was 234,300 tons, an increase of 1300 tons [25]. - **Product Prices**: The spot price of industrial silicon, DMC, and terminal products remained stable this week [30][34]. - **Intermediate Fundamental Data**: The operating rate of organic silicon intermediates was slightly adjusted [40]. - **Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Data**: The price and operating rate of aluminum alloy increased slightly [44]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The raw material prices of industrial silicon remained stable this week [48]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Product Prices**: This week, the prices of some polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased, while the prices of batteries and components increased. For example, the average price of N - type dense material decreased by 2.02% compared to the previous weekend [52]. - **Component Fundamental Data**: From April 2026, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic components will be cancelled, leading to potential export rush in January - March. The estimated production in January will increase to around 40GW. The European and domestic component inventories are at a moderately low level [60]. - **Battery Chip Fundamental Data**: The export tax rebate for photovoltaic batteries will be reduced and cancelled in 2027. The estimated production in January will increase to around 48GW [61]. - **Silicon Wafer Fundamental Data**: The silicon wafer inventory has increased to 26.78GW. With the cancellation of the export tax rebate, there is still demand for export rush, and the estimated production in January may increase to 50GW [67]. - **Polysilicon Fundamental Data**: This week, the polysilicon production slightly decreased, and the factory inventory increased to 330,000 tons. In January, due to production cuts by GCL Technology and Tongwei Co., Ltd., the production decreased to around 90,000 tons, and in February, it will be reduced to 82,000 - 85,000 tons [72].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market continues its strong momentum from the previous year, with over 350 companies currently waiting to list as of early 2026 [1][3] - In the first three weeks of the new year, Hong Kong has completed 11 IPOs, raising approximately $4 billion [1] Group 1: IPO Market Dynamics - As of early 2026, the number of companies waiting to list has increased from 316 at the end of 2025 to over 350 within a few weeks [3] - The surge in IPO applications is ongoing, with 16 companies submitting applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in the first seven working days of January 2026 [3] - The IPO pipeline includes leading companies from various sectors, including technology and traditional industries, with notable names such as Ruipai Pet Medical and Anker Innovations [5] Group 2: Geographic and Sectoral Trends - Companies from both first-tier and lower-tier cities in China are actively pursuing listings in Hong Kong, with three companies from Henan province advancing their IPO plans within a week [5] - The IPO market is characterized by a concentration of leading firms across emerging and traditional sectors, with over 70% of listed companies in 2025 coming from information technology, biomedicine, new energy, and high-end manufacturing [12] Group 3: Historical Performance and Future Projections - In 2025, Hong Kong regained its position as the top global IPO market, with 119 IPOs and a total fundraising amount of 2858 billion HKD, marking a 68% increase from 2024 [14] - Predictions for 2026 suggest that the IPO fundraising scale could exceed 300 billion HKD, with estimates ranging from 320 billion to 350 billion HKD and around 150 to 180 companies expected to successfully list [14][12] Group 4: Quality and Market Sentiment - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange emphasizes the importance of IPO quality, acknowledging that the recent surge in applications has led to some lower-quality submissions [16] - There is a growing trend of differentiation in the market, where larger projects and industry leaders are more likely to attract long-term funding, while smaller projects may face challenges based on market conditions and performance [16]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher and closed with slight gains, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.45% to 26,749.51 points and a total turnover of HKD 240.87 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.62% to 5,798.01 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.51% to 9,160.81 points [1] Investment Recommendations - China Galaxy Securities suggests that the short-term interest rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve have decreased, leading to increased geopolitical uncertainties, which may result in a narrow range of fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, benefiting from multiple factors such as rising prices in the supply chain, domestic substitution, and accelerated AI applications [1] - The consumer sector is expected to continue benefiting from policy support, with attention needed on the implementation of policies and improvement in consumer data [1] - Precious metals and other safe-haven assets are likely to benefit from heightened geopolitical tensions [1] Blue-Chip Performance - Pop Mart (09992) led blue-chip stocks with a 6.6% increase, closing at HKD 219.6, contributing 16.17 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) rose 2.84% to HKD 36.24, contributing 29.31 points, while Alibaba-W (09888) increased by 2.25% to HKD 168.5, contributing 49.5 points [2] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) fell 2.09% to HKD 8.42, negatively impacting the index by 6.13 points [2] Sector Highlights - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant catalysts, with JunDa Co. (02865) surging over 50% and solar energy stocks also showing strong performance, with many stocks rising over 10% [3] - Gold prices are nearing USD 5,000 per ounce, supported by rising safe-haven demand and central bank purchases [3] - The aerospace sector is facing a pullback due to fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates, but demand for the upcoming Spring Festival is expected to remain strong [3][7] Notable Stock Movements - Pop Mart's new Valentine's Day limited edition blind box series has generated significant buzz, leading to a rapid sell-out and strong stock performance [8] - Zhaoyi Innovation (03986) announced a profit increase forecast of approximately 46% for 2025, driven by demand in AI computing and a stable upward cycle in the storage industry [9] - Brainstorm Aurora-B (06681) saw a decline of 9.11% due to a share placement announcement at a discount [10] - Tuo Yun Biotechnology (01332) experienced a dramatic drop of 61.15% amid unusual stock transfer activities [11]