Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid growth of China's new energy bus exports, projecting over 15,000 units exported in 2024 and 7,629 units in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total for 2023 [1] - The penetration rate of new energy buses in the export market is expected to exceed 18% by 2024, driven by global trends in energy conservation and low-carbon initiatives [3] - BYD leads the new energy bus export market, with 3,933 units exported from January to November 2025, followed by established manufacturers [6] - Nepal and Chile are the primary export destinations, with China exporting 2,711 pure electric buses to Nepal and 2,010 to Chile in the same period [8] - The average export price of pure electric buses is on the rise, reaching $189,000 in the first eleven months of 2025, while the average price for plug-in hybrid buses has slightly decreased to $126,000 [10] Industry Overview - Major listed companies in the new energy bus sector include Yutong Bus, Zhongtong Bus, CRRC, Ankai Bus, Foton Motor, King Long, BYD, Dongfeng Motor, and Changan Automobile [1] - The export volume of new energy buses has shown a consistent upward trend from 2018 to 2024, indicating a robust growth trajectory in the industry [1][3] - The increase in export volume correlates with the growing global demand for environmentally friendly transportation solutions [3]

[Table_Page] 深度分析|汽车 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 汽车行业 25 年四季度末公募基金超配汽车行业 0.62pct [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-29 [分析师： Table_Author]张力月 SAC 执证号：S0260524040004 021-38003727 zhangliyue@gf.com.cn 分析师： 闫俊刚 SAC 执证号：S0260516010001 021-38003682 yanjungang@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈飞彤 SAC 执证号：S0260524040002 SFC CE No. BWZ819 021-38003726 gfchenfeitong@gf.com.cn 分析师： 周伟 SAC 执证号：S0260522090001 021-38003684 gfzhwei@gf.com.cn 分析师： 罗英 SAC 执证号：S0260525110001 0755-82557403 shluoying@gf.com.cn -10% -2% 6 ...

深 度 研 汽车行业 买入（维持） 中国客车龙头，海外业务量价齐升 宇通客车（600066.SH）深度报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 投资要点： SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 公 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340124020014 电话：0769-22117626 邮箱：wuzhenjie@dgzq.com.cn | 邮箱：wuzhenjie@dgzq.com.cn | | | --- | --- | | 主要数据 2026 年 1 | 月 28 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 31.84 | | 总市值（亿元） | 704.92 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2213.94 | | 流通股本（百万股）2213.94 | | | ROE(TTM) | 37.10% | | 12 月最高价（元） | 34.47 | | 12 月最低价（元） | 证 22.79 券 | | 股价走势 | 研 究 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind | | 股价走势 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind ...

深 度 研 汽车行业 买入（维持） 中国客车龙头，海外业务量价齐升 宇通客车（600066.SH）深度报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 投资要点： SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 公 分析师：刘梦麟 行业龙头地位稳固，全品类产品矩阵完善 宇通客车是国内客车行业首 家上市公司，截至2025年，大中型客车销量已连续23年稳居国内第一， 国内市占率超30%。公司产品覆盖公路、公交、校车、机场摆渡及自动 驾驶微循环车等全细分市场，并具备全系列新能源适配能力。 究 研究助理：吴镇杰 财务盈利能力强劲，从规模向效益成功转型 公司业绩呈现"营收稳健、 利润爆发"的特征，2025年前三季度归母净利润同比增长35.4%，显著 高于营收增速，验证了向"效益驱动"转型的成功。受益于海外高毛 利业务占比提升及国内存量置换，公司净利率稳步提升至12.76%的高 水平。 深筑技术护城河，"睿控E平台"领跑智能化 公司拥有全球商用车行 业规模最大、体系最完善的研发团队，持续保持高强度研发投入。依 托自主研发的"睿控E平台"，集 ...

证券之星消息，1月29日商用车板块较上一交易日上涨0.61%，江淮汽车领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4157.98，上涨0.16%。深证成指报收于14300.08，下跌0.3%。商用车板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600418 江淮汽车 | | 7.07亿 | 16.67% | -2.26 Z | -5.32% | -4.82 Z | -11.36% | | 600303 曙光股份 | | 323.72万 | 5.03% | -198.05万 | -3.08% | -125.67万 | -1.95% | | 000868 安凯客车 | | -429.67万 | -8.17% | 463.96万 | 8.82% | -34.28万 | -0.65% | | 301039 中集车辆 | | -565.85万 | -3.06% | 801.93万 | 4.34% | -236.08万 | ...

Core Insights - The commercial vehicle market in China is expected to see significant growth in 2025, driven by the strong performance of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and supportive policies for vehicle upgrades [1][7][12] - In December 2025, the sales of commercial vehicles reached 300,000 units, marking a 5% year-on-year increase and a 15% month-on-month increase [7][12] - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles is projected to reach 46% by December 2025, a substantial increase from 29% in December 2024 [12][14] Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis - The total sales of commercial vehicles in China for 2025 are forecasted to be 3.1 million units, representing a 9% year-on-year growth compared to the stable period since 2022 [1][7] - The market showed a strong upward trend from March to December 2025, with December achieving a historical high for the month [5][7] - The sales of new energy commercial vehicles in December 2025 are expected to hit 140,000 units, reflecting a 71% year-on-year increase and a 49% month-on-month increase [1][8] New Energy Vehicle Performance - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles has increased significantly, from approximately 3% in 2019-2021 to 46% in December 2025 [12][14] - The sales of new energy commercial vehicles for the entire year of 2025 are projected to reach 910,000 units, a 57% increase compared to the previous year [1][8] - The growth in new energy vehicle sales is attributed to strong demand and government incentives, particularly in the commercial vehicle sector [10][12] Market Structure and Competition - The market for commercial vehicles is characterized by a stable structure, with significant contributions from light and heavy-duty trucks [14][18] - Key players in the commercial vehicle market include Beiqi Foton, SAIC-GM-Wuling, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, which dominate the light truck, heavy truck, and bus segments respectively [15][18] - The performance of heavy-duty trucks has improved significantly due to subsidy policies, with notable growth in electric heavy-duty trucks in regions like Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai [16][17] Regional Market Dynamics - The light truck market is particularly strong in regions such as East China and South China, with increasing sales in these areas [18][19] - The penetration of new energy vehicles in the truck segment reached 38% in December 2025, while the bus segment saw a penetration rate of 78% [14][18] - The market for new energy light trucks is primarily concentrated in East China and South China, with significant growth observed in these regions [19][21]

Core Viewpoint - In December 2025, China's new energy heavy truck sales reached a record high, totaling 231,100 units for the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 182% [1]. Group 1: December Sales Performance - In December 2025, domestic new energy heavy trucks sold 45,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 198%. The breakdown includes 40,800 pure electric trucks, 4,202 fuel cell trucks, and 284 hybrid trucks, with respective month-on-month growth rates of 50%, 610%, and 139% [2]. - Fuel cell and hybrid heavy trucks showed significant year-on-year growth compared to November, where fuel cell trucks and hybrid trucks had growth rates of 20% and 31%, respectively [2]. - The strong performance in December indicates that the surge in new energy heavy trucks is not solely driven by pure electric models but is a comprehensive market boom [2]. Group 2: Market Presence of Fuel Cell and Hybrid Trucks - Throughout 2025, the presence of fuel cell and hybrid heavy trucks was relatively weak, with notable months being March, September, and November, where their market shares were 4.71%, 2.34%, and 2.12%, respectively [4]. - In December, the market share of fuel cell trucks increased to 9.28%, while hybrid trucks maintained a low share of 0.63% [5]. Group 3: Annual Sales and Market Share - For the entire year of 2025, fuel cell and hybrid heavy trucks accounted for 3.15% and 0.55% of the new energy heavy truck market, respectively, totaling 3.7%, with pure electric models making up the remaining 96.3% [7]. - The hybrid heavy truck market saw a total sales volume of 1,274 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 145%, although this growth rate was lower than the overall new energy heavy truck market [10][14]. - The leading company in the hybrid heavy truck market was YuanCheng, with 777 units sold, capturing a market share of 61.0%, an increase of 8.7 percentage points from 2024 [16].

运输通道优势凸显，航空运输引领增长。2025年，我市依托"枢纽+通道"优势，多式联运体系持续 完善。其中，航空运输进出口表现突出，完成货物进出口4027.9亿元，占比62%，同比增长10.5%；水 路、公路、铁路运输协同发展，分别完成进出口1350.6亿元、1075.9亿元、44.2亿元，占比分别为 20.8%、16.5%、0.7%，同比分别增长26.4%、32.3%、20.4%，多渠道运输网络进一步畅通。 出口结构不断升级，高附加值产品成主力。2025年，我市出口产品不断向价值链高端攀升，机电产 品、高新技术产品分别出口3456.2亿元、2779.4亿元，分别占全市出口的80.8%、65%，同比分别增长 22.3%、18.3%，成为出口增长的主引擎。 进口品类聚焦高端，重点产品支撑有力。2025年，我市进口结构与产业发展需求高度匹配，机电产 品、高新技术产品进口占比较高，分别进口1946.4亿元、1616亿元，分别占全市进口的87.4%、72.6%， 同比分别增长11.6%、9.1%，为产业链升级提供有力支撑。此外，平板显示模组、消费品等进口增长幅 度较大，分别进口255.4亿元、148.7亿元，同比分别增 ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint is that the reform of the public housing fund can release significant consumption potential by lowering housing costs, thereby saving more funds for consumption. Three specific paths are proposed to reduce housing costs: expanding rental withdrawals, broadening the usage scope of the fund, and further lowering loan interest rates. The total potential release of funds is estimated at approximately 515.1 billion yuan, which could theoretically stimulate consumption by about 360.6 billion yuan, increasing the growth rate of resident consumption by 0.7 percentage points [1][15]. Fixed Income Strategy - The report discusses the "see-saw" relationship between stocks and bonds, emphasizing that this relationship is not stable or universal. The direction of stock and bond pricing is determined by the interplay between the numerator (earnings) and the denominator (interest rates). When the economy performs well, stock prices may rise due to improved earnings, but rising interest rates can suppress bond prices and increase stock discount rates, leading to uncertain stock index directions. Conversely, in a weak economic environment, stock prices may decline even if bond prices rise [2][18]. Industry Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a key investment area for 2026, driven by the successful launch of domestic rockets, which has removed previous operational bottlenecks. The report suggests focusing on four main areas: SpaceX-related stocks, rocket and satellite sectors, and space computing/solar power. Specific companies to watch include Maimai Co., Anhui Helit, and others in the rocket and satellite sectors [3][21]. Water Conservancy Investment - The report indicates that the "northward shift of the rain belt" since 2021 has led to increased rainfall and flooding in northern China, prompting a focus on enhancing water conservancy infrastructure. It is projected that water-related investments in 2026 could see significant growth, contributing to a recovery in overall fixed asset investments by approximately 1.1 percentage points [2][16][17]. Electric Power Equipment - The report emphasizes the potential for rapid development in space solar power due to the acceleration of commercial aerospace and low-orbit satellite advancements. Companies involved in space power supply and equipment are recommended for investment, including Jun Da Co. and Ming Yang Smart Energy [6][21]. Food and Beverage Industry - The report discusses the potential of AKK bacteria as a beneficial symbiotic organism in gut health, with applications in obesity and diabetes management. The market for AKK is expected to grow significantly, with a focus on leading companies in the probiotic sector [3][23].

Core Viewpoint - The bus industry represents China's automotive manufacturing sector becoming a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions expected to recreate a market equivalent to China in the next 3-5 years [4][12]. Group 1: Driving Factors for the Bus Industry - **Timing**: Aligns with the national strategy of "China's Special Valuation," with buses being a strong practitioner of the "Belt and Road" initiative, leveraging over a decade of overseas experience [4][12]. - **Geographical Advantage**: The technology and products of Chinese buses are at a world-class level, leading in new energy buses and competitive in traditional buses regarding cost-effectiveness and service [4][12]. - **Human Factors**: The end of the price war in the domestic market is expected to resonate positively, with demand recovering due to tourism and public transport renewal needs, potentially returning to 2019 levels [4][12]. Group 2: Profitability Outlook - The bus industry is expected to achieve new high profitability due to the absence of price wars, an oligopolistic market structure, better net profit margins in overseas markets, and declining lithium carbonate costs [5][16]. Group 3: Market Capitalization Potential - The short-term goal is to challenge the market capitalization peak from the last industry boom (2015-2017), while the long-term goal is to establish a new ceiling, witnessing the emergence of a true global bus leader [6][16]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - **Yutong Bus**: Identified as a "model student" with high growth and dividend attributes, with projected net profits of 4.94 billion, 5.92 billion, and 7.03 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 20%, 20%, and 19% respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [7][14]. - **King Long Automobile**: Considered the "fastest improving student," with significant profit elasticity, projected net profits of 440 million, 640 million, and 830 million yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth of 182%, 45%, and 28%, also maintaining a "buy" rating [8][14]. Group 5: Industry Data Summary - In December 2025, the overall production of the bus industry in China was 59,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 3.94% and 8.56% respectively [19][20]. - The wholesale volume for December 2025 was 64,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 5.49% and 20.11% respectively [19][20]. - The terminal sales volume for December 2025 was 62,400 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 5.93% and 28.10% respectively [22].