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跨年行情即将启动,如何提前布局?十大券商最新研判!
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-15 00:33
3. 中信建投:跨年行情蓄势待发 A股上涨的底层逻辑并未改变,目前市场已经基本完成调整,跨年有望迎来新一波行情。中期行业配置 方面,重点关注具有一定景气催化的有色金属和AI算力板块;主题投资方面,商业航天为主线,可控核 聚变和人形机器人也可适当关注。此外,港股市场中的潜在热点主要集中在互联网巨头、创新药两大方 向。 上周A股市场风格分化,成长风格整体走强。主要指数中,沪指累跌0.34%,深证成指累涨0.84%,创业 板指累涨2.74%。通信、军工、电子、机械设备领涨;煤炭、石油石化、钢铁、房地产板块下跌。 后市市场将如何演绎?且看最新十大券商策略汇总。 1. 中信证券:内外兼顾,寻求交集 从中央经济工作会议内容来看,做大内循环仍是重心,定位和去年相似。但对于股票市场而言,内需品 种和外需品种的预期和定价与去年存在巨大差异:去年底投资者对外需普遍谨慎,对内需充满期待,但 最终外需的表现大超预期;今年是重仓布局外需敞口品种,预期相对充分,但对内需品种欠缺信心;实际 上,明年外需继续超预期的难度在加大,但内需可期待的因素在增多。从这些角度来看,海外敞口品种 业绩兑现力强,但估值继续提升难度大;内需敞口品种景气度一般 ...
公募销售新规落地,政银绑定深化下银行扩表动能有望复苏
Western Securities· 2025-12-14 12:55
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the insurance sector, recommending specific companies such as China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, China Life (H), and China Taiping, while also recommending New China Life Insurance [4][17]. Core Insights - The financial industry experienced a mixed performance, with the non-bank financial index rising by 0.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.89 percentage points. The insurance sector showed a notable increase of 2.36%, while the banking sector declined by 1.77% [2][11]. - The central economic work conference emphasized a proactive fiscal policy, which is expected to benefit the insurance sector by increasing infrastructure asset supply and improving credit risk perceptions [14][15]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the brokerage sector, driven by regulatory changes that align public fund interests with long-term investor returns [18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance and Sector Insights - The non-bank financial index rose by 0.81%, with the insurance sector outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.44 percentage points [2][11]. - The banking sector underperformed, with a decline of 1.77%, attributed to macroeconomic policy expectations [3][21]. 2. Insurance Sector Data Tracking - The insurance sector's premium income showed steady growth, with life insurance and property insurance premiums increasing by 9.6% and 4.0% year-on-year, respectively [17][26]. - The report notes that the 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.84%, which is favorable for the insurance sector's investment strategies [31]. 3. Brokerage Sector Data Tracking - The brokerage sector's PB valuation stands at 1.37x, indicating potential for valuation recovery as earnings improve [19][42]. - Regulatory changes in public fund sales are expected to enhance the industry's focus on long-term investor interests [18][19]. 4. Banking Sector Data Tracking - The banking sector's PB valuation is at 0.54x, suggesting it remains undervalued [21][25]. - The central economic work conference's focus on domestic demand and flexible monetary policy is expected to support the banking sector's growth [22][23].
2025年中央经济工作会议精神与对金融行业影响解读:内需为本,改革为楫
Tai Ping Yang Zheng Quan· 2025-12-12 13:06
2025 年 12 月 12 日 行业日报 看好/维持 非银行金融 非银行金融 内需为本,改革为楫:2025 年中央经济工作会议精神与对金融行 业影响解读 ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 24/12/12 25/2/22 25/5/5 25/7/16 25/9/26 25/12/7 非银行金融 沪深300 ◼ 子行业评级 从"总量扩张"转向"质效提升",注重跨周期调节。会议提出五个 "必须",包括"必须充分挖掘经济潜能"、"必须坚持政策支持和改革创 新并举"等,凸显政策思路从短期逆周期调节向中长期结构性改革深化。 与 2024 年会议相比,本次会议更注重供需平衡的修复,而非单纯的需求 刺激,政策工具更强调"存量与增量并重"。例如:财政政策从"加大强 度"转为"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量",重心转向优 化支出结构、化解地方财政压力,而非进一步扩大赤字;货币政策明确将 "促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升"作为核心目标,提出"灵活高效运 用降准降息等多种政策工具",但更注重传导机制畅通,避免"大水漫灌"; 这一导向对金融行业意味着政策环境趋于稳定,金融机构需更聚焦 ...
ETF盘中资讯|茅台五粮液狂派400亿红包!资金越跌越买,食品ETF(515710)近5日吸金超9600万元!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-11 06:11
Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a pullback, with the Food ETF (515710) showing a decline of 0.34% as of the latest update, driven by poor performance in consumer staples and certain liquor stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The food and beverage sector has seen significant capital inflow, with over 96 million yuan invested in the Food ETF (515710) over the past five trading days [3] - Major liquor companies, Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, announced interim dividend distributions totaling approximately 40 billion yuan, with Moutai distributing 30 billion yuan and Wuliangye distributing 10 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a historical low, with the price-to-earnings ratio of the Food ETF's underlying index at 19.99, placing it in the 4.7% percentile of the last decade [4] - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions present a favorable opportunity for left-side positioning in the sector, particularly in high-quality assets like liquor and consumer staples [4] - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies with stable demand and strong risk resilience, as well as those actively developing new products and channels [4] Group 3: ETF Composition - The Food ETF (515710) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Food and Beverage Index, with approximately 60% of its holdings in high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and nearly 40% in beverage, dairy, seasoning, and beer sectors [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF include major brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [5]
中共中央政治局:明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策 | 金融早参
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-08 23:19
NO.2央行公开市场开展1223亿元7天期逆回购操作 NO.1 中共中央政治局:明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效 每经编辑:张益铭 据央视新闻,中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议,分析研究2026年经济工作,审议《中国共产党领导全 面依法治国工作条例》。会议指出,明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效,继续实施更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,切 实提升宏观经济治理效能。 NO.4美联储议息会议在即,市场预期再次降息可能性大 据央视新闻,美国联邦储备委员会定于9日和10日举行货币政策例会并公布议息决定。市场普遍认为, 美联储再次降息可能性较大。市场人士表示,近期美国就业市场数据疲软,美联储很可能在本月降息25 个基点,当前国际金融市场走势已体现美联储降息预期。 点评:市场普遍预期美联储将在即将到来的议息会议上再次降息,这种预期显然受近期疲软的就业数据 影响。持续的降息显示出美联储致力于通过货币政策刺激经济的决心,旨在应对经济增速放缓及全球经 济不确定性。 免责声明:本文内容与数据仅供参考,不构成投资建议,使用前请核实。据此操作,风险自担。 每 ...
法治筑基 支持产业整合升级和企业转型
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-12-08 17:08
本报记者 吴晓璐 12月5日,中国证监会就《上市公司监督管理条例(公开征求意见稿)》(以下简称《条例》)公开征求意见。《条例》 细化完善上市公司收购、重大资产重组等规定,进一步明确财务顾问的职责定位和独立性要求,支持产业整合升级和企业转 型。 自去年9月份"并购六条"出台以来,上市公司并购重组活跃度持续提升,并且逐步从"重数量"向"重质量"转变。在市场人士 看来,《条例》平衡规范与效率,进一步明确市场预期,引导产业整合,推动并购重组质效提升。 南开大学金融学教授田利辉在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,《条例》将进一步推动并购重组实现从"量"到"质"的深 刻变革,助力产业升级,引导资本流向新质生产力领域,构建合规、透明、价值导向的市场生态,进而推动并购重组成为资本 市场高质量发展的"强引擎",为中国经济高质量发展注入持久动能。 强化全流程监管 推动并购转向"价值创造" 《条例》突出对并购重组活动的支持,明确收购、重大资产重组的基本含义,稳定各方参与的市场预期;在强化重点规 范,明确开展并购重组基本要求的同时,进一步发挥并购重组优化公司股权和资产业务结构,支持产业整合升级的重要作用。 与此同时,吸收合并、购买优质 ...
滚动更新丨A股三大指数集体高开,商业航天概念延续强势
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-08 02:00
| 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 1- 2 | 3909.23 | 6.42 | 0.16% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 13178.96 | 31.28 | 0.24% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | W | 3119.15 | 9.85 | 0.32% | 个股方面,安妮股份一字涨停。公司公告,控股股东拟约7.72亿元转让15.92%股份,交易完成后公司实控人将变更为李宁、王磊。 | R | | 安妮股份 002235 | 0.42% 1040 | | 同行对比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 10. 22 +0.93 +10.01% | 资金分析(万元) | | ? 排名 | | 委比 +100.00% 2112743 | न्द्रे | | 王力流入: 卖 | | | | | | | 1021.6 | 18% | | | 5 | | | | | 32% | | F | | ...
份额逼近百亿大关!证券ETF(159841)跟踪指数强势涨超2.5%,近20日“吸金”5.62亿元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-08 01:51
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant growth in the Securities ETF (159841), with a turnover of 5.38% and a transaction volume of 578 million yuan as of December 5, 2025, alongside a strong performance of the underlying index, which rose by 2.54% [1] - The Securities ETF has seen a notable increase in scale, growing by 19.2 million yuan over the past two weeks and 514 million shares in the last month, reaching a total of 9.999 billion shares [1] - In terms of capital inflow, the Securities ETF attracted a total of 562 million yuan over the last 20 trading days, indicating strong investor interest [2] Group 2 - The Securities sector is characterized by a strong beta attribute, closely linked to the performance of the capital market, and is often referred to as the "flag bearer of bull markets" [3] - A recent notification from the National Financial Regulatory Administration aims to enhance the role of insurance funds as "patient capital," which is expected to further open up space for insurance capital in the market [4] - The notification includes adjustments to risk factors for insurance companies, such as reducing the risk factor for stocks held over three years from 0.3 to 0.27, which is anticipated to encourage long-term investments and positively impact the capital market [5][7] Group 3 - According to Zhongyuan Securities, the overall performance of the equity market is expected to remain relatively strong in 2026, with the securities industry continuing to be in an upward cycle [8] - It is anticipated that the brokerage sector will experience wide fluctuations in 2026, with leading listed brokerages likely to play a pivotal role during the next market rally [8]
大金融板块继续走强,瑞达期货2连板
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-08 01:43
Group 1 - The financial sector continues to strengthen, with notable gains in stocks such as Ruida Futures, which has achieved two consecutive trading limits [1] - Other securities firms, including Industrial Securities, Guosen Securities, Huatai Securities, Xiangcai Securities, and Guotai Junan, opened higher [1]
A股集体高开
第一财经· 2025-12-08 01:40
2025.12. 08 本文字数:639,阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 一财 阿驴 09:29 大金融板块继续走强,瑞达期货2连板,兴业证券、国信证券、华泰证券、湘财股份、国泰海通 等纷纷高开。 09:25 A股开盘丨三大指数集体高开 沪指高开0.16%,深成指高开0.24%,创业板指高开0.32%。盘面上,玻璃纤维股走强,商业航天,炒 股软件、券商、大飞机指数涨幅居前。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 1- 2 | 3909.23 | 6.42 | 0.16% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 13178.96 | 31.28 | 0.24% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 3119.15 | 9.85 | 0.32% | 个股方面,安妮股份一字涨停。公司公告,控股股东拟约7.72亿元转让15.92%股份,交易完成后公司 实控人将变更为李宁、王磊。 | R | 安妮股份 002235 | 造纸 10 | | 0.42% | | 同行对比 | ...