2026年2月24日，合肥新春第一会"科技创新引领新质生产力发展大会"召开，蔚来(09866)荣获"全市地方 税收综合贡献突出企业"。蔚来创始人、董事长、CEO李斌作为代表出席发言。李斌表示，公司预计将 在2025年第四季度实现经调整经营利润7至12亿元，这将是成立11年来首次实现季度盈利，标志企业进 入可持续发展新阶段。2025年的经营业绩，是在技术创新领域持续坚决投入的成果，长期战略投入进入 收获期，带来毛利率持续优化，经营效率不断提升，经营质量稳步改善。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，2026年2月24日，合肥新春第一会"科技创新引领新质生产力发展大会"召开，蔚来 (09866)荣获"全市地方税收综合贡献突出企业"。蔚来创始人、董事长、CEO李斌作为代表出席发言。 李斌表示，公司预计将在2025年第四季度实现经调整经营利润7至12亿元，这将是成立11年来首次实现 季度盈利，标志企业进入可持续发展新阶段。2025年的经营业绩，是在技术创新领域持续坚决投入的成 果，长期战略投入进入收获期，带来毛利率持续优化，经营效率不断提升，经营质量稳步改善。 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In 2023, the market discussed a peak of 16 trillion yuan in "excess savings," with approximately 76-77 trillion yuan of residential time deposits maturing in 2026, indicating a historical peak[5] - The maturing deposits in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to reach 32-34 trillion yuan, highlighting a significant seasonal pattern[6] - The actual pressure from maturing deposits is limited, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6-10.8 trillion yuan in 2026, corresponding to a growth rate of 14.4%-16.3%, which is lower than the 17.7% growth rate in 2025[6] Group 2: Interest Rate and Asset Allocation - Approximately 25 trillion yuan of high-interest deposits are set to mature, with 32% of the total maturing deposits being two years or older, indicating a core pressure for renewal[6] - The renewal rate for deposits in 2025 remained close to 90%, suggesting that low interest rates do not automatically trigger a shift in risk appetite among residents[7] - The anticipated migration of deposits to other assets is expected to occur slowly and in a dispersed manner, with a potential 10% outflow rate from the 77 trillion yuan in time deposits being a marginal pricing variable for equity and bond markets[7] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impacts - As of November 2025, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. reached 9.8%, the highest since 1946, with China facing the highest actual tariff rate of 30.9%[9] - The actual tariff increases have significantly impacted trade dynamics, with China and India experiencing the largest increases in effective tariffs compared to 2024, at 20.2 and 17.3 percentage points respectively[10] - Despite tariff pressures, China's export position remains robust, maintaining the largest share of global exports, while the U.S. has shifted its import structure towards North America and Europe[11] Group 4: Economic Recovery and Consumer Behavior - The Chinese economy is shifting focus towards domestic demand as a long-term strategy, with consumer spending projected to account for 56.6% of GDP by 2024, still below developed economies[39] - Consumer confidence is stabilizing, with improvements in disposable income growth and a reduction in the crowding-out effect of precautionary savings on consumption[40] - The recovery in domestic demand is supported by a reasonable rise in prices, which is expected to stimulate consumption and improve corporate profitability[40]

有意思的是，作为一部体现赛车运动的电影，《飞驰人生3》吸引了一汽奥迪、一汽-大众、领克、阿维 塔、理想、比亚迪、蔚来等近10家车企在片中现身。如影片中的核心战车为一汽奥迪A3拉力赛车，原 型是奥迪A3 Sportback量产车；与之对标的是8.5代高尔夫GTI拉力赛车，原型即为大众8.5代高尔夫 GTI；领克Z20是推动"油电对决"主线的核心新能源赛车，原型是领克于2024年底推出的纯电紧凑型 SUV等，形成了传统燃油、豪华性能、新能源、智能汽车同台竞技的银幕阵容，上演了一场堪称"汽车 品牌春晚"的营销大戏。 2月24日，IMAX Corporation宣布在中国春节档这一年度观影高峰再创佳绩，为期七天的假期中累计斩 获1.93亿人民币票房。春节档票房前五的影片中，有三部为IMAX影片，IMAX中国以仅占全国1%的银 幕数，贡献了3.4%的票房占比。 其中， 猫眼文化传媒出品的赛车题材力作《飞驰人生3》，上映首周斩获1.66亿人民币IMAX票房，成 为自去年现象级作品《哪吒之魔童闹海》之后IMAX国产影片的最佳成绩。作为IMAX与导演韩寒的第 四次合作，《飞驰人生3》也创下系列最高IMAX票房纪录。 据悉，今 ...

| 国泰海通证券 | | --- | | GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2026-02-13 09:00——2026-02-24 15:00） 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观专题：《有多少存款：可供"搬家"》2026-02-22 3 | | |  | 宏观专题：《关税一周年：全球贸易重塑的"真相"》2026-02-22 3 | | |  | 宏观周报：《春节期间：海外有何变化》2026-02-22 4 | | |  | 宏观周报：《新春经济温和修复》2026-02-22 5 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《特朗普关税被否：后续如何演绎》2026-02-21 5 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《"K 型分化"的边际收敛》2026-02-21 6 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《超级核心通胀压力仍存》2026-02-14 7 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《M2 增速：创新高的背后》2026-02-14 8 | | |  | 策略专题报告：《中国股市上升的关键动力三：中国内需提振的"有力转折"》2 ...

2025年，中国汽车产业在连续17年产销量稳居全球第一的基础上，再次交出了一份充满变革与挑战的答卷。行业在"电动化、智 能化"的百年浪潮中加速演进，新能源渗透率逼近50%关口，汽车出口从爆发式增长步入增速换挡期，智能驾驶技术正式叩开L3 级市场大门。 站在2026年的新起点，中国汽车产业加速从"量变"到"质变"的关键转折。新能源汽车渗透率突破50%，标志着市场主导权的切 换；L3级自动驾驶商业化破冰与Robotaxi规模化竞争开启，驱动智能出行进入新阶段；固态电池、国产芯片、人形机器人等前 沿领域，则成为技术竞争与产业延伸的核心战场。与此同时，传统豪华品牌与合资阵营面临深度重构，在电动化与智能化浪潮 中寻求本土化反攻。然而，机遇之下暗藏挑战：全球市场波动导致出口增速放缓，供应链不确定性使"缺芯"风险再度浮现，成 本与技术的平衡成为企业穿越周期的重要命题。 1、2026年预测销售新车3475万辆 2025年我国销售新车3440万辆，同比增长9.4%，产销量连续17年稳居全球第一。其中，国内销量为2730.2万辆，与2017年基本 持平，存量竞争越发激烈。根据中汽协预测，2026年中国汽车销量预计为3475万辆， ...

Group 1 - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million units, setting a new historical record [1] - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with many automotive companies setting ambitious sales targets and clear strategies for growth [1] Group 2 - China FAW aims for a sales target of 3.546 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 7.39% from 2025 [4] - Dongfeng Motor targets 3.25 million units for 2026, with over 30% year-on-year growth, focusing on new energy vehicles and exports [6] - Changan Automobile sets a goal of 3.3 million units for 2026, a 13.3% increase, with a strong emphasis on new energy vehicle sales [8] Group 3 - SAIC Motor's sales target for 2026 is projected between 4.5 million and 5 million units, reflecting a pragmatic approach [10] - BAIC Group aims for 2.2 million units in 2026, with a focus on new energy products and smart technology [12][13] - GAC Group's sales in Q4 2025 reached 537,800 units, showing a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.56% [16] Group 4 - Chery aims for a sales target of 3.2 million units in 2026, a 14.03% increase from 2025, with plans to launch 17 key models [20] - BYD achieved a record of 4.602 million units in 2025 and plans to sell 1.3 million vehicles overseas in 2026, a 24.3% increase [22][23] - Geely targets 3.45 million units for 2026, a 14% increase, with a focus on new energy vehicle launches [25][26] Group 5 - Great Wall Motors sets a target of 1.8 million units for 2026, a 36% increase from 2025, supported by new technology [28][29] - Li Auto aims for 550,000 units in 2026, with a growth plan of approximately 40% [31] - NIO's sales target for 2026 is between 456,000 and 489,000 units, with plans to expand its battery swap station network [33] Group 6 - XPeng Motors targets 550,000 to 600,000 units for 2026, with a growth rate of approximately 28% to 39.7% [36] - Leap Motor aims for a sales target of 1.05 million units in 2026, a 67.5% increase, with plans to launch four new models [38] - Xiaomi Auto sets a target of 550,000 units for 2026, a 34% increase, focusing on technology development and user experience [40] Group 7 - Harmony Smart aims for over 1 million units in 2026, with plans to launch more than 10 new models [43]

昨日，港股三大指数集体走高。截至收盘，恒生指数涨 2.53%，国企指数涨 2.65%， 恒生科技指数涨 3.34%。 板块方面，光通信板块涨幅显著。其中，长飞光纤光缆 6869.HK 涨 14.43%，剑 桥科技 6166.HK 涨 6.25%，汇聚科技 1729.HK 涨 5.28%。 国际金价格持续上行，全球避险情绪升温，因此黄金股、有色金属、铜矿等板 块也有不错表现。潼关黄金 340.HK 大涨 12.58%，赤峰黄金 6693.HK 涨 7.96%， 五矿资源 1208.HK 涨 6.63%，紫金黄金国际 2259.HK 涨 6.82%，中国黄金国际 2099.HK 涨 6.14%，灵宝黄金 3330.HK 涨 6.23%，紫金矿业 2899.HK 涨 5.35%， 山东黄金 1787.HK 涨 4.6%。 汽车产业链表现优异，浙江世宝 1057.HK 涨 19.97%，知行科技 1274.HK 涨 13.3%， 赣锋锂业 1772.HK 涨 8.48%，中创新航 3931.HK 涨 7.35%，蔚来-SW 9866.HK 涨 5.55%，比亚迪股份 1211.HK 涨 4.87%，耐世特 1316. ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-02-24 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-02-14 | 2026/01 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 72208 | 8178 | 70546 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M0:同比 | % | 2.7 | 10.6 | 17.2 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M1:同比 | % | 4.9 | 6.2 | ...

国泰海通晨报 2026 年 02 月 24 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【宏观研究】：春节期间，特朗普关税被判定违法，以及美伊军事冲突风险升温对全球资产价 格带来扰动，原油与黄金均有所上涨。美国经济韧性仍存，通胀回落进展或将较为颠簸，部分联 储官员提及加息可能。未来仍需关注特朗普关税政策的不确定性扰动。 2、【策略研究】：中国经济工作的重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任务，内需复苏、物价回升 与地产企稳会推动经济预期上修。目前内需板块预期与交易出清，相信价值也会有春天。 3、【固定收益研究】：经济复苏节奏延续温和，呵护债市偏多环境，但需关注海外风险偏好回升 带来的扰动。 4、【纺织服装研究】纺织服装业：我们认为①截至 2.12 日的美棉周度出口放量、②2.19 日发布的 美国农业展望论坛明确新棉季全球供需收紧基调、③近期美国与东南亚国家关税互惠政策等多重 积极边际变化夯实美棉筑底并逐步打开中长期向上空间的趋势，持续重点推荐百隆东方、关注相 关标的天虹国际集团。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweix ...