Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $25.12, down from a previous $27.88, reflecting a 27x PE for 2025, which is higher than the global comparable company's average of 22.7x [4][28]. Core Insights - The company reported a 54.1% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4, reaching 31.13 billion RMB, exceeding consensus expectations by 7% [1]. - The Gross Transaction Value (GTV) increased by 55.5% year-on-year to 1.14 trillion RMB, also surpassing expectations by 9% [1]. - The revenue growth across different segments includes existing homes (47.5%), new homes (72.7%), home decoration (12.8%), and rental services (108.7%) [1]. - Adjusted net profit decreased by 21.6% year-on-year to 1.34 billion RMB, falling short of expectations by 40%, primarily due to one-time expenses [1][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2025, the company expects revenue to reach 110.04 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 17.74% [6][22]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is 8.12 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 29.6% from previous estimates due to rising personnel costs and a declining take rate [4][22]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in market share in the existing home segment, projecting a 5-7 percentage point increase in market share in first-tier cities [2][13]. Segment Performance - The existing home business outperformed expectations with a 47.5% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4, and GTV growth of 59.1%, particularly strong in first-tier cities [2]. - The new home business also exceeded expectations with a 72.7% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4, and GTV growth of 49.3% [2]. - The home decoration segment showed a 12.8% year-on-year revenue growth, with a significant increase in contract amounts [3]. Operational Efficiency and Innovations - The company is leveraging AI tools to enhance operational efficiency, including AI-driven customer service and property management systems, which have shown improvements in operational metrics [15][18]. - The home decoration business is expected to achieve quarterly breakeven due to improved supply chain management and the introduction of new product offerings [3][16][17]. Market Context - The report highlights a recovery in the real estate market, particularly in existing homes, driven by favorable policies and a significant increase in transaction volumes [13]. - The rental business has seen a substantial increase in managed properties, with operational efficiencies improving customer satisfaction and reducing vacancy periods [14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for stocks, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [35] - The industry investment rating is "Outperform," suggesting an expected industry index increase of over 5% within the same timeframe [35] Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 1.12% to 23,960 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 2.59% [1][13] - Positive policy expectations are noted, with the People's Bank of China indicating a potential reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates to maintain liquidity and support economic growth [1] - The automotive sector shows promising growth, with new energy vehicle penetration exceeding 35% in February, and Li Auto's delivery volume increasing by 21% year-on-year [2][8] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,959.98 points, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.12% during the week [13] - The market sentiment was influenced by the U.S. CPI data, which fell to 2.8%, easing inflation concerns [1][5] Company Performance - Li Auto reported a revenue of 144.5 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, despite a net profit decline of 31.9% [10] - BOSS Zhipin's revenue reached 7.356 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 23.6%, with a net profit increase of 42.6% to 1.567 billion yuan [11] IPO Dynamics - Recent IPO activities include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining raising approximately 2.822 billion HKD and Zhaogang Group raising about 15.59 million HKD [2] - Upcoming IPOs include Weisheng Pharmaceutical, planning to raise up to 745 million HKD [2] Sector Focus - Recommended stocks include technology and AI leaders such as Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Meituan, as well as new energy vehicle manufacturers like Li Auto and Xpeng [3]

Core Viewpoint - Beike's performance in 2024 shows steady growth with a significant increase in platform scale and revenue, despite challenges in the new home market [2][5][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Beike's total GTV reached 3.35 trillion RMB, with total revenue of 93.5 billion RMB, representing over 20% growth compared to 2023 [2]. - The number of active real estate stores increased to 49,700, and active agents grew to 445,000, marking a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [3]. - The GTV for existing home transactions rose to 2.25 trillion RMB, an approximate 11% increase, setting a historical high [4]. Business Segments - New home transaction GTV was 900.17 billion RMB, a decline of 3.3%, but revenue increased by 10% [5]. - The renovation and furnishing segment generated 14.8 billion RMB in revenue, growing by 36% due to effective supply chain management [6]. - Rental services managed over 430,000 units, with revenue reaching 14.3 billion RMB, a substantial increase of 135% [7]. Market Trends - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed signs of market recovery, with new home transaction volumes increasing by approximately 15% since September 26, 2024 [8]. - New home GTV on Beike's platform in Q4 2024 saw a year-on-year growth of about 50%, indicating a strong market rebound [9]. - The proportion of existing home GTV increased from 40% in 2023 to 46% in 2024, with a notable increase in transaction volume [10]. Shareholder Returns - In Q4, Beike repurchased 132 million USD worth of shares, totaling 760 million USD for 2024, which is 3.9% of the total shares as of the end of 2023 [11]. - Cumulatively, since September 2022, Beike has repurchased shares worth 1.63 billion USD, representing 8.6% of the total shares before the buyback program [11]. Operational Efficiency - Beike has optimized operational efficiency, reducing the average construction time for home renovation projects by over 10 days compared to the previous year [12]. - The company has enhanced customer satisfaction in rental services through improved after-sales service capabilities [12][13]. Strategic Initiatives - Beike is diversifying its strategic layout and exploring new business models, focusing on customized services to mitigate decision-making risks in home buying [14]. - The company plans to limit heavy asset investments and transition towards a platform-based business model similar to SaaS [16]. Technology Investment - Beike aims to increase AI investments in 2025 to enhance foundational capabilities and accelerate the development of application iterations [17]. - The integration of advanced AI tools has led to a 5% reduction in work time and provided nearly 20% support for strategic planning [19]. Value-Added Services - The company is exploring low-frequency traffic channels and introducing value-added services like home decoration to create additional value for customers [20]. - Plans for 2025 include enhancing product strength and delivery quality while adopting a customer-centric approach [21].

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.26%, S&P 500 futures down 0.32%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.45% [1] - European indices are performing positively, with Germany's DAX up 1.23%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.29%, France's CAC40 up 0.49%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.78% [2][3] - WTI crude oil is up 1.14% at $68.14 per barrel, while Brent crude is up 1.07% at $71.83 per barrel [4] Economic Sentiment - Bank of America reports a significant drop in bullish sentiment among investors, with the allocation to U.S. stocks seeing the largest decline in history, rising cash allocation from 3.5% to 4.1% [5] - Economic growth expectations have seen the second-largest decline on record, while allocations to Eurozone stocks are at their highest since July 2021 [5] - Concerns over U.S. economic uncertainty are rising, particularly regarding tariff policies and their impact on inflation and economic data quality [5] Gold Market - Gold prices are reaching historical highs, with spot gold up 0.75% at $3023.78 per ounce and COMEX gold futures up 0.85% at $3031.71 per ounce [6] - ANZ Bank has raised its gold price forecast to $3100 per ounce in three months and $3200 in six months, citing geopolitical tensions and trade wars as key drivers [7] Company News - Nvidia (NVDA.US) is set to hold its GTC conference from March 17 to 21, with CEO Jensen Huang expected to discuss advancements in AI and accelerated computing technology [8] - Google (GOOGL.US) is collaborating with MediaTek to develop low-cost AI chips, potentially impacting Broadcom (AVGO.US) as it may lose exclusive rights to Google's TPU chip business [9] - Popular Chinese stocks are mostly rising in pre-market trading, with Kuaishou (KC.US) up over 6%, NIO (NIO.US) up over 5%, and Li Auto (LI.US) up nearly 5% [10] Financial Results - XPeng Motors (XPEV.US) reported a net loss of RMB 5.79 billion for 2024, a 44.19% year-over-year reduction, with total revenue of RMB 16.11 billion in Q4, up 23.4% year-over-year [11] - Beike (BEKE.US) reported a net profit of RMB 4.065 billion for 2024, a decrease of 30.91% year-over-year, with total revenue of RMB 93.457 billion, up 20.16% year-over-year [12] - Huya (HUYA.US) reported Q4 revenue of RMB 1.5 billion, below market expectations, but net loss narrowed to RMB 172 million [13] - Tiger Brokers (TIGR.US) reported Q4 revenue of $124 million, up 77.3% year-over-year, with a net profit of $30.5 million, marking a 2772.5% increase [14] - Tencent Music (TME.US) reported total revenue of RMB 28.4 billion for the year, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 8.14 billion, reflecting a 30.7% year-over-year increase [15]

EF001 免責聲明 發行人所發行上市權證/可轉換債券的相關信息 發行人所發行上市權證/可轉換債券 不適用 其他信息 其他信息 不適用 發行人董事 於本公告日期，本公司董事會由執行董事彭永東先生、單一剛先生、徐萬剛先生及徐濤先生，非執行董事李朝暉先生以及獨立非執 行董事陳小紅女士、朱寒松先生及武軍先生組成。 第 2 頁 共 2 頁 v 1.1.1 | 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因 | | | --- | --- | | 公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 | | | 股票發行人現金股息公告 | | | 發行人名稱 | 貝殼控股有限公司 | | 股份代號 | 02423 | | 多櫃檯股份代號及貨幣 | 不適用 | | 相關股份代號及名稱 | 不適用 | | 公告標題 | 末期現金股息 | | 公告日期 | 2025年3月18日 | | 公告狀態 | 新公告 | | 股息信息 | | | 股息類型 | 末期 | | 股息性質 | 普通股息 | | 財政年末 | 2024年1 ...

Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, total transaction value reached RMB 3,349.4 billion, an increase of 6.6% compared to RMB 3,142.9 billion in 2023[4]. - Net income for the fiscal year was RMB 93.5 billion, up 20.2% from RMB 77.8 billion in 2023[4]. - Adjusted net profit for the fiscal year was RMB 72.1 billion, down from RMB 97.98 billion in 2023[6]. - In 2024, net revenue increased by 20.2% to RMB 93.5 billion from RMB 77.8 billion in 2023, driven by growth in new housing and home decoration businesses[22]. - Total net revenue for 2024 reached RMB 93.46 billion, a 20.1% increase from RMB 77.78 billion in 2023[96]. - Operating profit for 2024 was RMB 3.76 billion, down 21.5% from RMB 4.80 billion in 2023[97]. - Net profit for 2024 was RMB 4,078,180, a decrease of 30.7% compared to RMB 5,889,604 in 2023[105]. - Basic earnings per share decreased to RMB 1.19 from RMB 1.67, reflecting a decline of 28.7%[99]. Business Growth - The number of stores increased to 51,573, representing a growth of 17.7% from 43,817 stores in 2023[6]. - Active agents reached 499,937, a rise of 16.9% from 427,656 agents in 2023[6]. - The total transaction value of existing homes was RMB 2,246.5 billion, a 10.8% increase from RMB 2,028.0 billion in 2023[4]. - The total transaction value for home decoration and furniture was RMB 16.9 billion, up 27.3% from RMB 13.3 billion in 2023[4]. - The home decoration and furnishing business saw a total transaction value growth of 27.3% year-on-year and a revenue increase of 36.1% in 2024, with profit margin rising from 29.0% in 2023 to 30.7% in 2024[13]. - The rental housing service expanded its managed properties to over 430,000 units by the end of 2024, up from over 210,000 units at the end of 2023[15]. Operational Efficiency - The average turnover days for new housing accounts receivable decreased to just 34 days in Q4 2024, indicating improved operational efficiency[12]. - Contribution profit margin for existing housing business decreased from 47.2% in 2023 to 43.2% in 2024, primarily due to increased fixed salary costs for agents[26]. - Contribution profit for home decoration improved from 29.0% in 2023 to 30.7% in 2024, due to refined operational management and enhanced supply chain capabilities[29]. Cash Flow and Investments - Cash flow from operating activities decreased to RMB 9.45 billion in 2024 from RMB 11.41 billion in 2023[49]. - The net cash generated from operating activities for 2024 is RMB 9.4 billion, with a net profit of RMB 4.078 billion, reflecting a difference due to non-cash adjustments of RMB 3.681 billion[54]. - The company’s total cash outflow from investing activities was RMB 9,378,025 in 2024, compared to RMB 3,977,440 in 2023, indicating a significant increase in investment expenditures[106]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to pay a total dividend of approximately $400 million, reflecting its strong cash reserves and commitment to shareholder returns[19]. - The board approved a final cash dividend of $0.12 per ordinary share and $0.36 per American depositary share, totaling approximately $400 million to be paid from the company's retained earnings[85]. - The company repurchased approximately $716 million worth of American Depositary Shares in 2024, representing about 3.89% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2023[19]. Corporate Governance and Compliance - The company has complied with all applicable principles and code provisions of the corporate governance code during the reporting period[80]. - The audit committee has reviewed the unaudited annual results for the year ending December 31, 2024[84]. - The company emphasizes that the decision to distribute dividends is subject to future operational performance, capital requirements, and other relevant factors[86]. Research and Development - Research and development expenses grew by 17.9% from RMB 1.9 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.3 billion in 2024, mainly due to an increase in the number of R&D personnel and technical service costs[36]. - The company is focused on enhancing the C2M service model through data-driven insights to better meet market demands in the residential development sector[16]. Market Position and Strategy - The company emphasized strengthening its "one-stop living service platform" capabilities to drive solid business development and ecological value release[8]. - The company plans to enhance its platform capabilities and expand into new markets, focusing on strategic growth initiatives[94]. - The company aims to leverage AI for personalized customer insights and improve service capabilities across its business lines in 2025[18].

Financial Performance - Total transaction value for 2024 reached RMB 3,349.4 billion (USD 458.9 billion), an increase of 6.6% year-on-year[4] - Net income for 2024 was RMB 93.5 billion (USD 12.8 billion), representing a year-on-year increase of 20.2%[5] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 72.11 billion (USD 9.88 billion), a decrease of 26.4% year-on-year[5] - Total revenue for 2024 increased by 20.2% to RMB 93.5 billion (USD 12.8 billion) from RMB 77.8 billion in 2023, driven by growth in new housing and home decoration businesses[27] - Operating profit for 2024 was RMB 3.765 billion (USD 516 million), with an operating margin of 4.0%, down from 6.2% in 2023[34] - Net profit for 2024 was RMB 4.078 billion (USD 559 million), compared to RMB 5.890 billion in 2023[37] - The company reported a basic earnings per share of RMB 1.19 for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 1.67 in 2023, a decrease of 29%[73] Transaction and Revenue Growth - Active stores as of December 31, 2024, totaled 51,573, a growth of 17.7% compared to the previous year[6] - Active agents numbered 499,937 as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.9%[6] - The total transaction value for Q4 2024 was RMB 1,143.8 billion (USD 156.7 billion), a year-on-year increase of 55.5%[5] - In Q4 2024, the company's net revenue increased by 54.1% year-over-year to RMB 31.1 billion (USD 4.3 billion) from RMB 20.2 billion, driven by growth in total transaction volume and expansion in housing rental services[10] - The net revenue from existing housing business in Q4 2024 was RMB 8.9 billion (USD 1.2 billion), a 47.5% increase from RMB 6.0 billion in Q4 2023[10] - The net revenue from new housing business in Q4 2024 increased by 72.7% to RMB 13.1 billion (USD 1.8 billion) from RMB 7.6 billion in Q4 2023[12] Cost and Expense Management - Operating costs for 2024 increased by 25.8% to RMB 70.5 billion (USD 9.7 billion) from RMB 56.1 billion in 2023[29] - The company's operating costs for external commissions increased by 11.5% to RMB 22.8 billion (USD 3.1 billion) in 2024, compared to RMB 20.4 billion in 2023, driven by new home business net income growth[31] - Internal commission and salary costs rose by 11.1% to RMB 18.9 billion (USD 2.6 billion) in 2024 from RMB 17 billion in 2023, due to increased transactions and improved benefits for agents[31] - Operating expenses grew by 13.3% to RMB 19.2 billion (USD 2.6 billion) in 2024, up from RMB 16.9 billion in 2023[33] Research and Development - The company's research and development expenses in Q4 2024 rose by 38.4% to RMB 739 million (USD 101 million) due to an increase in the number of R&D personnel and technical service costs[17] - Research and development expenses increased by 17.9% to RMB 2.3 billion (USD 300 million) in 2024, primarily due to an increase in R&D personnel and technical service costs[35] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to repurchase approximately USD 716 million worth of shares in 2024, representing about 3.9% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2023[10] - The company announced a final cash dividend of USD 0.12 per ordinary share, totaling approximately USD 400 million[42] - The dividend payment date is expected to be around April 22, 2025, for common shareholders and April 25, 2025, for American depositary share holders[44] Market Strategy and Outlook - The company aims to enhance customer experience and service efficiency through technology and humanistic values[7] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and enhancing its service offerings in the coming fiscal year[27] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence and exploring potential mergers and acquisitions to drive growth[54] - The management anticipates a positive outlook for the overall economic conditions in China, which may influence future business performance[54] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investments totaled RMB 61.6 billion (USD 8.4 billion) as of December 31, 2024[25] - The company's cash and cash equivalents decreased from RMB 19.63 billion in 2023 to RMB 11.44 billion in 2024, a decline of about 41.6%[58] - The total current liabilities are expected to rise from RMB 39.52 billion in 2023 to RMB 52.74 billion in 2024, an increase of approximately 33.4%[60] - The total net increase in cash and cash equivalents for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 4,480,990, compared to RMB 3,862,085 for the same period in 2023, reflecting an increase of 16%[80] Non-GAAP Metrics - The company utilizes non-GAAP financial metrics to assess operational performance, including adjusted operating profit and adjusted net profit[48] - Adjusted operating profit excludes stock-based compensation, intangible asset amortization, and impairment of goodwill and other long-term assets[49] - The company emphasizes that non-GAAP metrics should not be viewed in isolation and encourages investors to review them alongside GAAP metrics[49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating optimism about future recovery and growth [4][22]. Core Insights - The new housing market is still in need of recovery, with the investment side being weaker than the sales side. The report suggests that the investment recovery pace will be significantly slower than in previous cycles [4][22]. - The report highlights that the sales side is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations of demand recovery driven by proactive policies and urban renewal projects [4][33]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - In January-February 2025, real estate development investment totaled 1,072 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, with new starts down 29.6% and construction down 9.1% [5][21]. - The report forecasts a 2025 investment decline of 9.9%, with new starts and completions expected to decrease by 9.7% and 22.6%, respectively [4][22]. Sales Side - The sales area for January-February 2025 was 110 million square meters, down 5.1% year-on-year, while sales revenue was 1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.9% [21][33]. - The average selling price increased by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating some resilience in pricing despite overall sales volume decline [32][33]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate developers in January-February 2025 were 1.6 trillion yuan, down 3.6% year-on-year, but showing signs of improvement compared to previous months [34][36]. - Domestic loans decreased by 6.1%, while self-raised funds saw a smaller decline of 2.1%, indicating a tightening in funding availability [34][36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [19] Core Views - In February 2025, the new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month. The number of cities with declining prices has increased [3][10] - The report indicates that the core theme of the real estate market remains "stabilizing after a decline," with the primary task being to stimulate demand. The effectiveness of policies to boost demand is diminishing, and the market's recovery will depend on further easing measures and the progress of monetized old renovations and land reserves [3][10] Summary by Sections Price Trends - In February 2025, 45 out of 70 cities saw new home prices decline, an increase of 3 cities from January. The average decline in new home prices was 0.31%, while 65 cities experienced a drop in second-hand home prices, with an average decline of 0.38% [3][10] - First-tier cities showed a month-on-month increase in new home prices of 0.1%, maintaining positive growth for three consecutive months. However, second-hand home prices in these cities turned negative, with an average decline of 0.1% [3][10] - Second-tier cities saw new home prices stabilize, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.4%, widening the decline compared to January [3][10] - Third-tier cities experienced a 0.3% decline in new home prices, with second-hand home prices also decreasing by 0.4% [3][10] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on four main lines for investment: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Greentown China and China Resources Land [3] 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate [3] 3. Companies with operational or strategic changes benefiting from local government debt relief, such as Gemdale Corporation [3] 4. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market, including Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the current policy environment recognizes the necessity of a stable and healthy real estate market for economic transformation, suggesting a potential turning point in the current cycle [6] - The report highlights a significant recovery in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing sales increasing by 10.0% week-on-week and 3.1% year-on-year [13][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of local government special bonds in supporting land reserves and stabilizing the real estate market [6] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Views - Real estate development is seen as crucial for economic stability, with recommendations for strong local state-owned enterprises and quality private companies such as China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group [6] - In property management, companies with strong market expansion capabilities and service diversification are expected to outperform, with recommendations for China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, Poly Property, and Yuexiu Service [6][7] - The second-hand housing market has shown a robust recovery, with recommendations for leading real estate transaction platforms like Beike and a focus on regional leaders like I Love My Home [7] 2. Real Estate Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - New housing sales in 37 cities reached 1.958 million square meters last week, with a cumulative total of 18.065 million square meters year-to-date, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [13] - The second-hand housing market saw a transaction volume of 2.034 million square meters last week, with a year-to-date total of 15.816 million square meters, marking a year-on-year increase of 34.2% [20] - The inventory of new homes in 13 cities stands at 77.525 million square meters, with a de-stocking cycle of 16.5 months [32] 3. Land Market Situation - The land market saw a total of 819.4 million square meters transacted from March 8 to March 16, 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 66.9% [45] - The average land price was 1,146 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 41.5% decrease from the previous period [45] - Cumulative land transactions for 2025 reached 20.657 million square meters, down 14.4% year-on-year [45] 4. Financing Situation in the Real Estate Industry - In the past week, real estate companies issued 9 credit bonds totaling 9.04 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.0% week-on-week [49] - The total amount of credit bonds issued in 2025 so far is 100.65 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.7% [49]