Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season has officially begun, with significant increases in flight operations and passenger traffic, driven by a combination of returning home, family visits, student travel, and tourism demand [1][2]. Group 1: Flight Operations and Passenger Traffic - The civil aviation sector is expected to operate 19,080 flights and transport 2.19 million passengers on the first day of the Spring Festival travel season [1][2]. - Beijing's two airports, Capital and Daxing, plan to handle a total of 88,800 flight takeoffs and landings during the Spring Festival, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.67% [2]. - Major airports such as Guangzhou Baiyun, Shanghai Pudong, and Shenzhen Baoan are experiencing the highest operational traffic, with specific routes showing strong demand [2]. Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Route Adjustments - Airlines are increasing capacity on domestic and international routes, focusing on popular destinations for winter tourism and family visits [3][4]. - Air China plans to operate over 70,000 passenger flights during the Spring Festival, with a 15% increase in capacity for routes to Northeast China [3]. - China Southern Airlines is enhancing its flight frequency on key routes, including those to popular tourist destinations in the north and south [3]. Group 3: New Services and Passenger Experience Enhancements - Airlines are introducing various services to improve passenger experience, such as online ticket standby options and specialized baggage handling for ski equipment [6][7]. - China Eastern Airlines is adjusting its flight schedules to accommodate a "two-trip" travel pattern, focusing on routes for family visits and tourism [4]. - New transportation services have been added at airports, including additional bus routes to major railway hubs in Beijing [6][7]. Group 4: Emergency Preparedness and Operational Coordination - Airports are implementing emergency plans to address potential weather-related disruptions during the travel season [7]. - Coordination efforts between airport authorities and transportation management are in place to optimize vehicle flow and enhance passenger waiting experiences [7].

【 策略 】大跌之后：良机就在眼前 【光伏设备 】SpaceX 申请百万卫星布局轨道 AI 数据中心，太空光伏与设备环节有望率先受益 大跌之后：市场有望逐步企稳，投资良机就在眼前。 近期中国市场波动较大，全A平均股价调整达到6%，上证指数跌至临近4000点，并在午后出现恐慌性抛 售。市场下跌由多因素耦合：1）预期层面，市场正快速评估新提名美联储主席凯文·沃什的政策主张，其"降息+缩表"的倾向引起金融条件紧缩的担心；2） 微观交易，黄金/白银等商品价格剧烈波动，以及前期A股权重ETF持续被抛售，叠加临近春节长假观望情绪升温，内外交织之下中国市场出现大跌。国泰海通 策略认为，大跌之后，市场有望逐步企稳，在春节前重拾上升势头，坚定看好中国股市：第一，全球市场正快速计入美联储潜在的鹰派货币立场，但从路径角 度沃什的降息立场更鸽派和确定；第二，中国政府政策重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任务，有望提振中国经济前景与资产回报；第三，中国证监会近期再 次强调"全力巩固资本市场稳中向好势头"，并推出中长期资金入市新政。市场的无差别恐慌抛售令交易加快出清，投资中国的良机就在眼前。 市场快速计价美国"缩表"风险，但沃什的降息立场更 ...

Performance Highlights - New Yi Sheng (300502.SZ) expects net profit between 9.4 billion and 9.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86% due to rising demand for high-speed optical modules driven by global computing power investments[4] - Han's Chip (688256.SH) anticipates net profit between 1.85 billion and 2.15 billion CNY, turning from a loss of 450 million CNY last year, benefiting from the growing demand for AI computing power[5] - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) projects net profit between 9.8 billion and 11.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 89.50% to 128.17%, driven by strong customer investment in computing infrastructure[6] - Runze Technology (300442.SZ) expects net profit between 5 billion and 5.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 179.28% to 196.03%, largely due to non-recurring gains from public REITs issuance[10] Underperformance Highlights - Great Wall Motors (601633.SH) forecasts net profit of 9.912 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 21.71% due to increased marketing expenses and competitive pressures[36] - GAC Group (601238.SH) expects a net loss between 8 billion and 9 billion CNY, turning from a profit of 824 million CNY last year, impacted by fierce competition and increased asset impairment provisions[39] - Xiexin Integrated (002506.SZ) anticipates a net loss between 890 million and 1.29 billion CNY, shifting from a profit of 68 million CNY last year due to structural supply-demand issues in the photovoltaic industry[41] - Baile Tianheng (688506.SH) projects a net loss of around 1.1 billion CNY, down from a profit of 3.708 billion CNY last year, primarily due to increased R&D expenses[42] Industry Trends - Technology-driven sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals are leading growth, with companies like New Yi Sheng and Han's Chip benefiting from strong demand and technological advancements[69] - Cost control is becoming a critical competitive advantage, particularly in the energy and manufacturing sectors, as seen with companies like Datang Power (601991.SH) benefiting from lower coal prices[70] - Traditional cyclical industries such as real estate and agriculture are facing significant downward pressure, with companies like Vanke (000002.SZ) and Tianbang Foods (002124.SZ) experiencing substantial losses due to market adjustments[72]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of China's four major airlines in 2025 shows significant divergence, with Hainan Airlines and China Southern Airlines expected to turn losses into profits, while China National Aviation and Eastern Airlines are projected to remain in the red [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - China National Aviation anticipates a net loss of approximately 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion RMB for 2025, with a non-recurring net loss expected to be between 1.9 billion and 2.7 billion RMB [1]. - Eastern Airlines projects a total profit of about 200 million to 300 million RMB, with a net loss estimated between 1.3 billion and 1.8 billion RMB, and a non-recurring net loss of 2.7 billion to 3.3 billion RMB [1]. - In contrast, Hainan Airlines expects a significant improvement, forecasting a net profit of 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion RMB, with a non-recurring net profit of 900 million to 1.1 billion RMB [1]. - China Southern Airlines also predicts a turnaround, with a net profit forecast of 800 million to 1 billion RMB and a non-recurring net profit of 130 million to 190 million RMB [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - Hainan Airlines attributes its expected profitability to a favorable civil aviation market, improved capacity management, the positive impact of the Hainan Free Trade Port, and exchange gains from the appreciation of the RMB [1]. - China Southern Airlines highlights its ongoing improvement in operational efficiency despite external uncertainties, supply chain pressures, and rising costs of aircraft and materials [2]. - All four airlines reported profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, with China National Aviation achieving a net profit of 1.87 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 37.31% [2]. - Eastern Airlines reported a net profit of 2.1 billion RMB, successfully turning around from losses, while China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines reported net profits of 2.3 billion RMB and 2.8 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17.40% and 30.93%, respectively [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Spring Festival travel rush in China is expected to see a significant increase in passenger volume, with new services introduced at airports to enhance traveler experience, particularly regarding the transport of local delicacies like Nai Pi Zi yogurt [1][4]. Group 1: Airport Services and Innovations - Beijing Capital Airport has launched a customized packing service for Nai Pi Zi yogurt, allowing travelers to safely transport this local delicacy by wrapping it in multiple layers of cling film and using a special box for checked luggage [3]. - Additional services introduced at the airports include winter clothing storage, expedited electric vehicle services for urgent travelers, and special assistance for elderly and disabled passengers at Daxing Airport [3]. Group 2: Passenger Volume and Flight Operations - During the Spring Festival, Beijing Capital and Daxing Airports are expected to handle a total of 88,800 flight operations, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.67% [4]. - Nationally, the Civil Aviation Administration predicts that the total passenger volume during the Spring Festival will reach 95 million, averaging 2.38 million passengers per day, which is a year-on-year growth of about 5.3% [4]. Group 3: Flight Capacity and Route Adjustments - Airlines are adjusting their flight capacities by adding new routes and increasing the frequency of existing ones, with some airlines replacing smaller aircraft with larger ones on popular routes [6][7]. - Notable new routes include those from Beijing Daxing to various destinations, with airlines like China Southern and Eastern Airlines actively expanding their services during the travel peak [6][7]. Group 4: Popular Destinations and Travel Trends - Popular domestic travel destinations during the Spring Festival include Sanya, Haikou, Chengdu, and Shanghai, with significant passenger volume expected on these routes [7]. - The introduction of the domestically produced C919 aircraft by several airlines during the Spring Festival offers travelers a chance to experience this new aircraft on various routes [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance forecast of various A-share listed companies, indicating a significant divergence in earnings growth across different sectors, driven by technological advancements, cost control, and industry cycles [4][62]. Group 1: Companies with Strong Earnings Growth - **New Yisheng (300502.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86%, driven by rising demand for high-speed optical modules due to global computing power investments [6]. - **Han's Laser (688256.SH)**: Expected net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion, turning from a loss of 0.452 billion in the previous year, benefiting from the increasing demand for AI computing power [8]. - **Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 89.50% to 128.17%, supported by strong investment in computing infrastructure [10]. - **Runze Technology (300442.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 5 billion to 5.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 179.28% to 196.03%, primarily due to non-recurring gains from public REITs issuance [12]. - **CITIC Securities (601995.SH)**: Expected net profit of 8.542 billion to 10.535 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 85%, driven by steady growth in core business segments [15]. Group 2: Companies with Earnings Below Expectations - **Great Wall Motors (601633.SH)**: Expected net profit of 9.912 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21.71%, impacted by increased marketing expenses and intense competition [34]. - **GAC Group (601238.SH)**: Expected net profit of -8 billion to -9 billion, turning from a profit of 0.824 billion in the previous year, due to fierce competition and adjustments in product structure [36]. - **GCL-Poly Energy (002506.SZ)**: Expected net profit of -0.89 billion to -1.29 billion, turning from a profit of 0.068 billion, affected by structural supply-demand issues in the photovoltaic industry [38]. - **Boli Tianheng (688506.SH)**: Expected net profit of -1.1 billion, turning from a profit of 3.708 billion, due to increased R&D expenses [39]. - **Daiyue City (000031.SZ)**: Expected net profit of -2.7 billion to -2.1 billion, continuing losses from the previous year, influenced by asset impairment provisions [42]. Group 3: Industry Trends - **Technological Breakthroughs**: Industries driven by technology, such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, are showing strong growth, with companies like New Yisheng and Rongchang Bio leading the way [62][63]. - **Cost Control**: The energy and manufacturing sectors are experiencing a clear divide, with companies like Datang Power benefiting from lower coal prices and effective cost management [64]. - **Downward Pressure from Industry Cycles**: The real estate, agriculture, and photovoltaic sectors are under significant pressure, with companies like Vanke and Tianbang Food facing substantial earnings declines [65][66].

针对春运期间可能出现的大风寒潮、冰雪凝冻等复杂天气，南航贵州公司提前开展运行形势研判，科学 调整航班计划，并同步优化突发事件快速响应机制，配齐配强应急备用设备，实行24小时专人轮岗盯 控，筑牢生产运行"硬件屏障"；针对航班延误、旅客滞留等场景建立"信息同步、资源调配、服务保 障"全链条协同模式，确保航班安全、平稳、有序运行。 编辑：刘润榕 新华财经贵阳2月2日电（记者肖艳）记者从南航贵州公司获悉，南航贵州公司春运首日正式引进第23架 波音737-800飞机，机队规模首次达到23架。为满足乘客出行需求，南航贵州公司计划新增和加密春运 航班共计672架次。 针对广州、深圳、上海、杭州至贵阳及贵阳至哈尔滨、沈阳等冰雪旅游城市航班需求激增的情况，南航 贵州公司精准布局航线网络，计划新增和加密春运航班672架次。一方面，在贵阳至上海、杭州等华东 航线投放载客量更大的177座—185座机型，满足热点航线需求；另一方面，在新开贵阳至沈阳直飞航 线，加密贵阳至乌鲁木齐、杭州、义乌往返航班的基础上，每天再新增1到2班贵阳至台州、贵阳至沈 阳、贵阳至南京往返航班。 ...

Market Overview - The aviation and airport sector declined by 0.73% on February 2, with Juneyao Airlines leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the aviation sector showed varied performance: - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 5.48, up 0.74% with a trading volume of 1.94 million shares and a turnover of 1.08 billion yuan - Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 7.26, up 0.69% with a trading volume of 924,400 shares and a turnover of 680 million yuan - Juneyao Airlines (603885) closed at 14.46, down 3.86% with a trading volume of 133,600 shares and a turnover of 199 million yuan [1][3] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 24.80 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 105 million yuan and speculative funds had a net inflow of 130 million yuan [3][4] - China National Airlines (601111) had a net inflow of 12 million yuan from institutional investors, while Shenzhen Airport (000089) saw a net inflow of 23.46 million yuan [4] ETF Performance - The Aerospace ETF (product code: 159227) tracked the National Aerospace Industry Index and experienced a decline of 8.15% over the past five days, with a net subscription of 12.87 million yuan [6] - The General Aviation ETF (product code: 159230) tracked the National General Aviation Industry Index and saw a decline of 9.25%, with a net subscription of 10.71 million yuan [7]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance forecast for Chinese airlines in 2025 indicates a trend of "significantly reduced losses, some airlines turning profitable, and accelerated profit differentiation" [2][3]. Group 1: Annual Performance Forecast - China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines have turned profitable, contributing significantly to the sector's profit recovery, while Air China and China Eastern Airlines remain in the loss zone, with China Eastern's losses narrowing [1][2]. - China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines are the core contributors to profit recovery, while Huaxia Airlines continues to show growth, reflecting the relative advantages of regional routes and operational flexibility [2][3]. Group 2: Quarterly Performance Insights - In Q4 2025, the industry remains under pressure with losses prevailing, but most airlines show significant year-on-year improvements, indicating a continued recovery trend despite seasonal profitability pressures [1][2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Demand remains a key variable for ticket price recovery and profit improvement, with domestic passenger volume expected to grow moderately due to normalized consumer travel and enhanced leisure tourism [4]. - The supply constraints and cost pressures are likely to amplify profit elasticity, with slow aircraft deliveries maintaining capacity control and policies aimed at reducing disorderly competition stabilizing revenue quality [4]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks - The top picks include Hainan Airlines (600221.SH) and Huaxia Airlines (002928.SZ), with a focus on China National Aviation (601111.SH, 00753), Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), and Spring Airlines (601021.SH) [5].

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 02 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 1）圆通速递举行 2025 年工作总结暨 2026 年工作部署大会，强调"守底线、强基 石、开新路"。1 月 26 日，圆通速递 2025 年工作总结暨 2026 年工作部署大会召开， 圆通速递董事局主席喻渭蛟表示：要打造安全畅通、便捷高效、自主可控、可持续、 有韧性的供应链；要贯彻执行国家邮政局局长赵冲久关于深入推进交通强国邮政篇 建设等 9 个方面的工作，要以"守底线、强基石、开新路"为管理理念和工作指南， 做好各项重点工作。圆通速递总裁潘水苗围绕"守底线、强基石、开新路"对 2026 年重点工作作了具 ...