房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 1 月 21 日 房地产行业第 3 周周报（2026 年 1 月 10 日-2026 年 1 月 16 日） 新房、二手房成交同比降幅均收窄；央行下调商业用房购房贷款 首付比例 新房成交面积环比由负转正，同比降幅收窄；二手房成交面积环比增幅收窄，同比降 幅收窄；新房库存面积同环比均下降；去化周期同环比均上升。 核心观点 政策 投资建议 风险提示： 政策出台不及预期；销售与房价持续下行；市场信心修复不及预期。 相关研究报告 《地产后增量时代的机遇》（2025/08/10） 《单月销售与投资降幅扩大；开竣工降幅虽收窄， 但仍处于历史低位》（2025/07/17） 《70 城房价环比跌幅持续扩大；一线城市二手房价 跌幅大于二、三线城市》（2025/07/17） 《2025 年将成为房地产行业"由量转质，优化结构" 的关键年》（2025/05/12） 《"城市更新"成为楼市重要的增量筹码，维稳房 地产市场是当前扩内需的重要一环（25 年 4 月政治 局会议解读）》（2025/04/27） 证券分析师：夏亦丰 (8621)20328348 yifeng.xia@ ...

房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 1 月 21 日 房地产行业第 3 周周报（2026 年 1 月 10 日-2026 年 1 月 16 日） 新房、二手房成交同比降幅均收窄；央行下调商业用房购房贷款 首付比例 新房成交面积环比由负转正，同比降幅收窄；二手房成交面积环比增幅收窄，同比降 幅收窄；新房库存面积同环比均下降；去化周期同环比均上升。 核心观点 政策 投资建议 风险提示： 政策出台不及预期；销售与房价持续下行；市场信心修复不及预期。 相关研究报告 《地产后增量时代的机遇》（2025/08/10） 《单月销售与投资降幅扩大；开竣工降幅虽收窄， 但仍处于历史低位》（2025/07/17） 《70 城房价环比跌幅持续扩大；一线城市二手房价 跌幅大于二、三线城市》（2025/07/17） 《2025 年将成为房地产行业"由量转质，优化结构" 的关键年》（2025/05/12） 《"城市更新"成为楼市重要的增量筹码，维稳房 地产市场是当前扩内需的重要一环（25 年 4 月政治 局会议解读）》（2025/04/27） 《房地产"止跌回稳"主基调不变，释放需求和化 解风险并行，传递积极信号（ ...

Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) experienced a decline of -3.3% last week, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices changed by -0.6% and +0.5% respectively, resulting in excess returns of -2.7% and -3.8%[46] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 26th in performance[46] New Housing Market - New home sales increased by 0.6% week-on-week but decreased by 36.8% year-on-year during the period from January 10 to January 16, 2026[8] - In major cities, new home transaction areas changed as follows: Beijing +16.3%, Shanghai +1.9%, Guangzhou +18.8%, and Shenzhen -0.6%[8] Second-Hand Housing Market - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 15 cities was 162.3 million square meters, down 1.8% week-on-week and down 8.4% year-on-year[14] - Cumulative transactions from January 1 to January 16, 2026, totaled 331.5 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.4%[14] Inventory and Absorption - Cumulative new home inventory in 13 cities reached 77.9 million square meters, with a week-on-week change of -0.1% and a year-on-year change of -4.7%[21] - The absorption cycle for new homes in 13 cities is 23.0 months, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6 months[21] Land Market - Land transaction area from January 12 to January 18, 2026, was 11.746 million square meters, down 21.9% week-on-week and down 49.7% year-on-year[38] - The average land price was 700 RMB/square meter, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 44.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 51.1%[38] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include: A-shares: Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group[7] - Suggested light-asset operation companies include: Property management: Greentown Service; Commercial management: China Resources Mixc Life; Leading intermediary platform: Beike-W[7] Risk Factors - Risks include potential underperformance of real estate regulatory policy relaxation, continued industry downturn, and persistent credit risks leading to liquidity deterioration[7]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The real estate and building materials sector experienced a significant increase, primarily driven by market rumors regarding policy relaxation in Shanghai and expectations of more substantial policy measures to follow [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - A reassessment of the real estate and related sectors is deemed necessary at this juncture [2] - Key points highlighted in the commentary from "Qiushi" include: 1. Recognition of real estate as a significant financial asset, central to household wealth [3] 2. The need for comprehensive policy measures rather than incremental adjustments, indicating potential for new expectations regarding policy strength and breadth [3] - Statistical data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a decline in real estate investment by 17% year-on-year, new construction down by 20%, completions down by 18%, sales area down by 9%, and sales revenue down by 13% [3] - Despite the overall decline in data, the marginal negative impact on the building materials industry has noticeably weakened [3] - The fundamental investment logic in the building materials sector is centered on "supply-side improvement" preceding "demand-side recovery" [3] - Under the "anti-involution" policy direction, price coordination in industries like cement is beginning to show results, with profit levels continuing to recover [3] - The consumer building materials sector, including waterproofing and coatings, is entering the final phase of clearing out excess, with an improved competitive landscape and positive changes in gross margins and expense ratios for leading companies in specific segments [3] Recommendations - Recommended to focus on high-credit, high-quality real estate developers benefiting from policy rumors, such as China Merchants Shekou and Binjiang Group [4] - Suggested to pay attention to leading companies in the real estate supply chain that are expected to benefit from anticipated demand recovery, including Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Sankeshu, and Tubao [4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the real estate industry, specifically the residential development sector, which is adapting to the needs of core cities, housing types, and product strength [1][2]. Key Insights - Demand is consolidating in core cities, providing growth opportunities for real estate companies heavily invested in these areas. In the period from January to November 2025, the transaction value of new homes in first and second-tier cities accounted for 43% of the total, with residential land transaction value at 61%, marking a year-on-year increase of 7 percentage points, the highest level since 2017 [2][3]. - Among 60 tracked real estate companies, the average sales share in 23 key first and second-tier cities was 72%, with an average market share of 1%. Companies with high sales proportions in core cities include: China Resources, Yuexiu, China Overseas, Greentown, Zhenro, China Resources, Jianfa, Poly Real Estate, and Longfor [3]. - Market demand is shifting towards larger, improvement-oriented products, particularly those over 120 square meters. Companies focusing on high-end improvement products are better aligned with market needs. Notable companies in this category include: China Resources, Greentown, China Overseas, Longfor, and Jianfa [3]. - Companies with strong product capabilities are at an advantage under the "good house" logic. Brands like China Resources, China Overseas, Greentown, Jianfa, Yuexiu, and Poly Real Estate have the highest brand premiums, with over 35% of their cities showing a premium rate exceeding 20% [3]. Investment Recommendations - Among mainstream real estate companies, Poly Real Estate, Yuexiu, Zhenro, and Greentown possess two of the three advantages identified. These companies are primarily state-owned or regionally focused [4]. - The current industry still faces significant pressure from macro, micro, and market perspectives, necessitating vigilance against potential market downturns [4][5]. - A policy adjustment is anticipated by the end of Q1 2026, which could help mitigate the ongoing downward spiral if executed effectively. However, until market stabilization is confirmed, the overall real estate sector may struggle to exhibit clear upward trends [6]. - Companies to watch include: China Resources, Longfor, Zhenro, Yuexiu, Jianfa, Poly Real Estate, as well as commercial real estate firms like China Resources Wanjia Life, Swire Properties, Ruian Real Estate, Kerry Properties, Dayuecheng, and Bailian [6]. Risk Factors - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation, continued declines in sales and housing prices, and slower-than-expected recovery of market confidence [7].

政策预期提升，低估值地产板块有布局机会。 地产观点0120：政策预期提升&业绩预期降低，地产板块亦有"春季躁动" 保利发展昨晚发布业绩预减公告，毛利率波动和资产 各行业"春季躁动"中，地产关注春节后的"小阳春"成色，政策面预计个别城市限购优化力度或超预期，配合利率调 整形成政策组合拳，或带动地产基本面逐步企稳。 头部房企业绩预告释放压力，引导市场正视调整。 头部房企业绩预告释放压力，引导市场正视调整。 保利发展昨晚发布业绩预减公告，毛利率波动和资产减值导致利润下滑，通过业绩预告释放压力，同时引导市场 正视房企在行业调整阶段的业绩波动。 积极的政策氛围或带动楼市一季度迎来成色较高的"小阳春"。 推荐基本面优质的头部改善性房企，如绿城中国、建发国际集团、中国金茂、华润置地、滨江集团等；建议关注 估值受房价影响弹性大的标的，如新世界发展、新城控股等。 地产观点0120：政策预期提升&业绩预期降低，地产板块亦有"春季躁动" 政策预期提升，低估值地产板块有布局机会。 各行业"春季躁动"中，地产关注春节后的"小阳春"成色，政策面预计个别城市限购优化力度或超预期，配合利率调 整形成政策组合拳，或带动地产基本面逐步企稳。 ...

本轮周期修复总量难创新高。 我们认为年内利率下降空间和收储政策力度可能比传闻预想要温和。 资金轮动＋政策催化促进板块 短期若参与板块波段行情建议选择土储优质、包袱小的标的。 今日AH地产板块走势较强，我们认为和资金轮动以及上海放松限购政策传闻有关。 我们认为年内利率下降空间和收储政策力度可能比传闻预想要温和。 重点关注：年度金股【滨江集团】 风险提示：事件驱动行情波动较大 资金轮动＋政策催化促进板块 今日AH地产板块走势较强，我们认为和资金轮动以及上海放松限购政策传闻有关。 短期若参与板块波段行情建议选择土储优质、包袱小的标的。 本轮周期修复总量难创新高。 ...

Core Insights - In 2025, Binhai Group achieved a sales revenue of 101.7 billion yuan, marking the sixth consecutive year of exceeding the 100 billion yuan threshold, ranking tenth among national real estate companies and first among private firms [1] - Chairman Qi Jinxing emphasized that while the real estate industry is undergoing significant adjustments, there will always be companies that can navigate the challenges effectively [4][5] - The company aims to transition from a focus on scale to one on quality, with a projected national housing sales figure of over 8 trillion yuan in 2025, indicating the sector's enduring importance in the economy [4] Financial Performance - By the end of 2025, Binhai Group reduced its interest-bearing debt to 26.2 billion yuan and achieved a financing cost of 3.0%, indicating a balanced financial position [1][7] - The company maintained a land acquisition amount of 19.2 billion yuan, ranking seventh nationally and first among private firms [7] Strategic Direction - The company has shifted its strategy from "crawling forward" to "standing up and preparing to charge," focusing on financial stability and readiness for future opportunities [7] - For 2026, Binhai Group set a sales target of approximately 80 billion yuan, aiming to maintain over 1% of the national market share despite longer construction cycles [11] Market Positioning - Binhai Group is committed to the "good house" concept, which emphasizes quality over price, defining it through five key attributes: good architecture, good landscape, good decoration, good facilities, and good service [9] - The company plans to focus its investments primarily in Hangzhou, with 60% of funds allocated there, while also targeting Shanghai for expansion, marking a strategic shift from previous approaches [12] Industry Perspective - The real estate sector is viewed as a critical component of the Chinese economy, with a persistent demand for improved living standards, suggesting that the industry will evolve rather than disappear [4][5] - Binhai Group's resilience and commitment to quality serve as a confidence symbol in the private sector, demonstrating that well-managed companies can thrive even in challenging market conditions [8]

Group 1: Company Overview - The report on Yihai International (1579.HK) highlights its attractive dividend returns and positive cash distribution, indicating a strong financial position [5][6] - The company has transitioned from a phase of rapid growth to a more stable valuation, with a focus on increasing dividend payouts as it navigates market fluctuations [5][6] - Yihai International's revenue is expected to grow steadily, with projections of CNY 65.7 billion, CNY 69.6 billion, and CNY 73.8 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 5.9%, and 6.0% respectively [6] Group 2: Industry Insights - The compound seasoning market in China is projected to reach CNY 126.5 billion, with significant segments including chicken essence, hot pot seasoning, and recipe-based seasonings [5] - The report notes that the restaurant industry's recovery, particularly in the B-end market, is a key growth driver for Yihai International, with a focus on both large and small business clients [6] - The overseas market is also expanding rapidly, with notable growth in Southeast Asia, the United States, and South Korea, indicating a successful localization strategy [6] Group 3: Market Trends - The real estate sector is experiencing a rebound due to expectations of interest rate cuts and mortgage subsidies, with a recommendation for moderate participation in policy-driven market movements [8][10] - In the pig farming industry, December 2025 saw a year-on-year increase in the number of pigs slaughtered by listed companies, with a total of 19.5 million heads, reflecting a 9.57% increase [12] - However, the revenue for these companies decreased by 24.24% year-on-year in December 2025, primarily due to low pork prices, indicating a challenging market environment despite increased output [13]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on January 20, with a fixed rate and a total of 324 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40%. The total bid and awarded amount was 324 billion yuan, while 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market funding conditions remained stable, with the D R001 weighted average interest rate rising over 5 basis points to around 1.37%. Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system maintained at 1.30%, with supply exceeding 100 billion yuan. Non-bank institutions' overnight borrowing rates for pledged credit bonds were around 1.49%, slightly higher than the previous day. Traders noted that the upcoming tax period caused a slight increase in funding prices, but overall liquidity remained loose [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was around 1.62%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Bond Market Overview - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a general decline in yields. The 30-year main contract for government bonds rose by 0.52%, the 10-year by 0.13%, the 5-year by 0.09%, and the 2-year by 0.05% [11]. Group 5: Fiscal Policy Insights - The Vice Minister of Finance, Liao Min, stated that in 2026, the fiscal department will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on increasing total volume, optimizing structure, improving efficiency, and enhancing momentum. The fiscal deficit and total debt will maintain necessary levels, ensuring that overall spending intensity will "only increase" and key areas will be "stronger" [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission's Deputy Director, Wang Changlin, indicated that the current economic operation faces a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The focus will be on strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [12]. Group 6: Tax Policies - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced the continuation of tax and fee preferential policies for community family services such as elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [13]. Group 7: LPR Rates - The latest LPR quotes remained unchanged, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%, maintaining stability for eight consecutive months since a decrease in May 2025 [13].