相关研究 [Table_Report ： ] 商业航天行业系列六:3D 打印：柔性制造的引擎，重塑火箭价值链 2026-02-11 商业航天行业系列四:太空算力：太阳翼或为最优通胀环节 2026-01-14 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 [Table_Page] 行业专题研究|通用设备 2026 年 3 月 3 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 商业航天行业系列七 | | | | 火箭回收方案：运载能力、成本与技术的三方博弈 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Tabl 分析师： | 代川 | 分析师： | 孙柏阳 | 分析师： 蒲明琪 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260517080007 | | SAC 执证号：S0260520080002 | SAC 执证号：S0260524080003 | | | SFC CE.no: BOS186 | | | SFC CE.no: BUP066 | | | 021-38003678 | | 021-38003680 | 021-38003807 | | | daichuan@ ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 1、据央视新闻，石油输出国组织（欧佩克）1 日发表声明说，8 个主要产 油国决定 4 月日均增产 20.6 万桶。沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联 酋、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼的代表当天举行线上会议， 讨论国际石油市场形势及前景。 2、2 月 28 日，人形机器人与具身智能标准化（HEIS）年会在北京经济 技术开发区举办。会上，我国首个国家级人形机器人与具身智能标准体系 ——《人形机器人与具身智能标准体系（2026 版）》正式发布。该体系紧 扣产业发展现状与未来趋势，覆盖基础共性、类脑与智算、肢体与部组件、 整机与系统、应用、安全等全产业链环节，填补了国内人形机器人与具身 智能领域标准体系的空白，引领人形机器人与具身智能产业标准化发展。 3、3 月 2 日，千问首款 AI 硬件"千问 AI 眼镜"正式上线，开启线上线 下全渠道预约。该产品将于 3 月 8 日在中国市场现货发售，并于 2026 年 内登陆全球市场。据悉，千问 AI 眼镜还将全面接入千问 APP，首批点外 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The current demand in the e-commerce express delivery industry is resilient, and the top-down "anti-involution" is driving up express prices, releasing profit elasticity for companies, indicating a favorable long-term competitive opportunity for e-commerce express delivery [17] - The oil transportation market may see a significant price increase due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, which could limit Iranian oil exports [5] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, enhancing the elasticity of VLCC freight rates [17] Industry Dynamics Tracking Shipping and Ports - The SCFI comprehensive freight index increased by 6.5% week-on-week to 1333 points, with notable increases in shipping rates to Europe, the Mediterranean, and the US [5] - The BDTI index for crude oil shipping rose by 6.47% to 1870 points, with VLCC TCE increasing by 30.2% [6] - The BCTI index for refined oil shipping increased by 3.3% to 838 points, with significant rises in rates for LR1 and MR vessels [6] - The BDI index for bulk carriers rose by 2.7% to 2120 points, indicating a positive trend in bulk shipping rates [6] - New ship prices have generally decreased, with the new ship price index down by 0.57 points to 182.15 points [6] Express Logistics - The Zhejiang Postal Administration has outlined nine key tasks for 2026, focusing on maintaining fair competition and enhancing service quality in the express delivery sector [9] - During the Spring Festival, the express delivery volume in Yiwu reached a historical high of 56.3 million packages in a single day, with a year-on-year growth of 10% in package volume [10] - Shentong Express emphasized the role of AI in operations, aiming for a collaborative strategy focused on experience, market share, and profit [11] Aviation and Airports - During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, civil aviation transported 22.05 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [13] - The number of inbound foreign tourists increased by 49.5% in 2025, indicating a recovery in international travel [14] Road and Rail - National logistics operations were orderly from February 16 to February 22, with rail freight down by 10.72% and highway freight traffic down by 70.59% [16] Sub-industry Data Tracking Express Logistics - In December 2025, the national express service volume reached 18.21 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [26] - In January 2026, YTO Express achieved a business volume of 2.943 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 29.75% [33] Shipping - The Clarksons comprehensive freight rate was $37,591 per day, a week-on-week increase of 10.37% [49] - The BDI index for bulk shipping rose by 2.70% [49] Aviation - In January 2026, civil aviation completed a passenger transport volume of approximately 63 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [59] Ports - From February 16 to February 22, 2026, China's port cargo throughput was 187.61 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 21.75% [80]

1.【大船天津30.7万吨LNG双燃料船开工】日前，由中船大连造船大船天津为希腊船东公司建造的 30.7万吨LNG（液化天然气）双燃料原油船T300K-113号船顺利开工。作为该系列的第二艘船，此 次开工标志着大船天津已全面具备超大型油船的批量建造能力，在新春开局之际跑出生产"加速度"。 （天津日报） 2.【人形机器人进入宝马工厂，合作方为瑞典公司Hexagon】据上证报，2月27日，宝马集团宣布首 次将物理AI引入欧洲，并在其莱比锡工厂启动了人形机器人试点项目。该项目旨在将人形机器人技术 整合到现有的汽车量产线中，同时探索其在电池及零部件生产中的更多应用场景。此次合作的机器人 供应商是瑞典公司Hexagon，宝马集团称其为"长期稳定的合作伙伴"。 Hexagon于2025年6月发布 了其首款人形机器人AEON。同年12月，AEON已在宝马莱比锡工厂完成首次测试部署。按计划， 2026年4月，AEON将开展进一步测试，以确保在2026年夏季顺利进入正式试点阶段。2025年，宝 马集团与Figure AI合作，在美国斯帕坦堡工厂首次部署了人形机器人。（ 上证报) 3.【AI+硬件公司人工生产力获致远互联天使轮融 ...

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 03 月 02 日 核心结论 分析师 【电子】2026 年电子年度策略：端云算力同频共振，自主可控步履铿锵 AI 硬件：国产 AI 芯片发展迅速，算力高景气度下，PCB、存储等供不应求。 半导体：全球资本开支重回增长轨道，晶圆扩产驱动设备国产化与先进封装 高景气。 端侧：AI 重塑终端形态，硬件升级与新兴品类开启新一轮创新周期。 【航海装备Ⅱ】船舶行业系列报告之二：船舶：摘取皇冠明珠，国产 LNG 船扬帆起航 LNG 运输船是现代造船工业皇冠上璀璨的明珠，其技术壁垒较高，是中国 造船业一直想要突破的高端船舶产品。2008 年 4 月 3 日，中国首制 14.7 万 立方米系列 LNG 船"大鹏昊"成功交付，打破了西方垄断 LNG 船市场的局 面，成功实现了"国轮国造"。 【计算机】英伟达 LPU 方案印证专用推理芯片的可行性 我们认为：英伟达将 LPU 整合进自身 AI 芯片体系，展现了专用推理芯片 （ASIC/DSA）在生成式 AI 推理计算中的重要性。这或将印证国产 AI 芯片 通过专业推理架构，在 AI 推理侧实现性能突破的可能性。AI 推理芯片的高 速迭代，或将推 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2026 年 03 月 02 日 2、当地时间 2 月 28 日，根据国际油轮流量监测系统的实时数据显示， 目前位于霍尔木兹海峡周边海域的油轮航行速度已普遍降至零，显示该 地区的航运已陷入停滞状态。 3、2 月 28 日，国家发改委价格监测中心称，2025 年 9 月至今，受需求 "爆发式"增长、产能"断崖式"紧缺等因素影响，全球存储器市场缺口 扩大，存储芯片价格持续上涨，近 1 个月多以来，涨幅呈现扩大态势，建 议关注存储芯片对下游价格的影响。 资料来源：央视网，央视新闻，财联社 【宏观策略】 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -12% -5% 2% 9% 16% 22% 29% 36% 2025.03 2025.07 2025.10 2026.02 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Q&A 2025 年下半年油运景气改善的核心驱动因素是什么，2026 年以来美国对外 行动带来的底层逻辑与结果指向如何理解？ 2025 年下半年油运景气出现一定程度改善，核心可归结为"合规需求增加" 与运量提升两条主线：一是 OPEC 增产带来运量增加；二是印度因担忧美国征 收较高关税而降低"黑油"进口、转向合规油进口，带动合规运输需求上行。 进入 2026 年后，过去两个月外部事件明显增多，按性质可分为两类：其一， 以美国特朗普本届政府为主导的对外长臂管辖及军事打击行动，包括对委内瑞 拉的打击与对伊朗的打击。底层逻辑上，这类行动被用于为 2026 年 10 月份 的美国中期大选做铺垫；在影响路径上，主要结果是推动更多原油流向合规市 场，从而抬升合规油运输需求。 对近期美伊冲突升级及伊朗局势演化应如何解读，最终可能的"结果"与对油 运需求的影响方向是什么？ 局势演化更多是"以何种过程呈现"的差异，核心判断仍指向同一结果：美国 更可能推动达成的结果是伊朗"契合"，并实现伊朗与胡塞武装的切割，同时 推动伊朗原油回到合规市场。就过程而言，无论是通过谈判达成、通过军事打 击后再谈判，或在伊朗更换领导人后再推进，本质都 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, are impacting global markets, especially commodities and inflation risks. [1][2] - **Key Focus**: The shift in US policy towards domestic issues due to midterm election pressures may lead to external conflicts being used to alleviate internal political and economic pressures. [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Price Impact**: Rising oil prices are expected to elevate the Producer Price Index (PPI) and subsequently the Consumer Price Index (CPI), benefiting consumer sectors with pricing power. [1][2] - **Market Transmission Pathway**: The main transmission pathway of the US-Iran conflict is identified as "conflict escalation → oil prices → global inflation → interest rates → stock valuations." The baseline assumption is that while the conflict may persist, oil prices will remain manageable, limiting disturbances to the A-share market. [1][2] - **Military Investment Opportunities**: The military sector is viewed as an "event-driven" investment opportunity, focusing on high-end military trade, particularly in advanced fighter jets and strategic transport aircraft. [1][5][6] Additional Important Insights - **Commodity Rotation**: Historical patterns indicate a rotation from gold to copper and oil, with current trends showing increases in precious metals and industrial metals. If this rotation extends to oil, input inflation risks will rise significantly. [3][4] - **Coal Market Dynamics**: The coal market is entering a phase of value reassessment due to supply disruptions and policy shifts in Indonesia, with potential for improved profitability in coal chemical projects when oil prices exceed $50 per barrel. [2][17][18] - **Geopolitical Conflict and Metal Pricing**: The US-Iran conflict is reinforcing the narrative that geopolitical tensions and de-globalization are fundamentally altering metal pricing dynamics, particularly for precious and strategic metals. [11][12] Sector-Specific Insights - **Oil and Gas Sector**: Short-term beneficiaries include upstream oil and gas assets, with a focus on small to mid-cap exploration companies. The midstream sector is expected to manage cost pressures better than anticipated. [9][10] - **Chemical Industry**: Companies like Wanhua Chemical are positioned to benefit from rising prices in MDI and TDI, with significant production capacities in the Middle East. [16] - **Electric Utilities**: The geopolitical conflict is likely to provide indirect benefits to defensive utility sectors, particularly hydropower, with clear safety margins emerging in certain sub-sectors. [20][21] Investment Recommendations - **Resource and Transportation**: Focus on resource sectors, shipping, and precious metals, particularly gold, as potential beneficiaries of the current geopolitical climate. [4][22] - **Military and Defense**: Emphasize investments in military technology and equipment manufacturers, particularly those involved in high-end military exports. [5][6] - **Coal and Chemical Stocks**: Monitor companies like Yanzhou Coal and China Chemical for potential upside due to supply chain disruptions and rising commodity prices. [19][16] Conclusion The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, are expected to have significant implications for various sectors, including oil, coal, chemicals, and military industries. Investors are advised to focus on sectors that can leverage these dynamics for potential growth and profitability.

2026 年 03 月 01 日 相关研究 券研究报 证券分析师 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王晨签 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 伊朗高势油运行情空中加油， 告船联动关注 ST 松发、招商锌 申万宏源交运一周天地汇(2026 ...

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 联系人 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 01 日 伊朗局势油运行情空中加油，集运 造船联 ...