2026 年 2 月 27 日 总量研究 节后表现值得期待 ——2026 年 3 月 A 股及港股月度金股组合 要点 2 月 A 股港股出现分化 2月A股主要指数涨多跌少，行业端分化明显，综合、建筑材料、国防军工涨幅 居前。受市场情绪积极、风险偏好维持高位等因素影响，2月（截至26日），A 股主要指数大多出现上涨，其中中证1000涨幅最大，2月份累计上涨了2.9%，而 科创50跌幅最大，累计下跌了1.6%。 2月港股市场出现回调。2月受外围市场波动、市场情绪回落等因素影响，港股 市场整体走势偏震荡。截至2026年2月26日，恒生香港35、恒生指数、恒生综合 指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒生科技的涨幅分别为3.9%、-3.7%、-3.8%、-5.4%、 -10.6%。 A股观点：表现值得期待，把握成长与顺周期两条主线 未来将进入到经济数据与政策验证阶段，市场表现值得期待。在春节之后，市场 交易热度会出现季节性回升，奠定了未来市场表现的基础。同时，未来一个月市 场将进入到密集的数据与政策验证期。1、2 月份的一系列经济金融数据将会逐 步披露，奠定市场对于全年经济的基础预期。总体来看，3 月份权益市场机会仍 然大于风险 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for various industries in March 2026, driven by domestic demand policies and sector-specific growth opportunities [2][3] - Key stocks recommended across different sectors are expected to show significant profit growth and favorable valuations, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][3] Industry Summaries Social Services - China Oriental Education is positioned to benefit from the growth in new service consumption, with a projected net profit of 1.1 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a 40% increase and a PE ratio of approximately 11 times [2][3] Construction - Yaxin Integration is expected to gain from significant investments in the cleanroom industry, with orders and performance not fully anticipated, particularly from major clients like Micron and TSMC [2][3] Non-Bank Financials - CITIC Securities is recommended as a leading brokerage benefiting from market recovery and favorable policy environments, with valuations not reflecting the improving profit trends [2][3] Agriculture - Youran Dairy, a leader in dairy farming, is set to benefit from rising beef and milk prices, with expectations of high earnings recovery due to favorable market conditions [2][3] Power Equipment and New Energy - Delijia is expanding its capacity in wind power gearbox projects, with a strong order backlog and projected profit growth of 55% in 2025 [2][3] - Sifang Co. is actively expanding its overseas presence and has secured multiple projects, with a focus on cutting-edge technologies like solid-state transformers [2][3] Automotive - Xingyu Co. is positioned in a high-growth segment of automotive lighting, with a focus on smart products and expanding its global customer base, projecting revenues of 16 billion yuan in 2025 [2][3] Home Appliances - Haier Smart Home is benefiting from domestic policies promoting appliance upgrades and is enhancing operational efficiency through digital transformation, with a stable increase in market share [2][3] Basic Chemicals - Chuanheng Co. is expected to increase its phosphate mining capacity significantly by 2028, with a strong dividend payout history and high-quality product offerings [2][3] Military Industry - Lianchuang Optoelectronics is experiencing substantial growth in laser products and is entering the commercial space launch market, indicating a broad market potential [2][3]

2026年2月24日至25日，A股市场掀起了一股罕见的涨停风暴。 川金诺、清水源、安达科技、川发龙蟒、云天化、金浦钛业、澄星股份、六国化工、司尔 特、和邦生物、金正大、天际股份等超过12只磷化工概念股接连涨停或大幅上涨。 板块内45只概念股全线飘红，成为市场最耀眼的主线。 这场突如其来的行情，源头远在大洋彼岸。 2026年2月18日，美国总统特朗普签署了一项援引《国防生产法》的行政命令。 这份命令将元素磷和草甘膦除 草剂正式列为"国家安全优先事项"。 白宫的声明明确指出，这两种关键材料中任何一种的供应中断，都可能使美国的国防工业基础和粮食供应暴露于风 险之下。 这并非美国第一次关注磷资源。 早在2025年11月，美国地质调查局（USGS）就已经将磷酸盐列入了其关键矿产清单。 从关键矿产到国家安全物资，磷 的战略地位在短短几个月内被连续拔高。 这意味着，磷不再仅仅是一种化工原料或化肥成分，而是被正式定义为关乎国防和粮食安全的战略资源。 磷之所以如此重要，是因为它横跨了军工、农业和新能源三大关键领域。 在军工方面，磷是制造烟雾弹、照明弹、燃烧剂以及半导体关键组件（如磷化 铟衬底）的核心原料。 在农业领域，磷是磷肥 ...

当前化工板块正站在多重逻辑共振的拐点上，化工ETF国泰（516220）受提振，盘中涨超3%。 短期看，春节期间国际油价在地缘扰动下偏强震荡，为化工品提供成本支撑，节后下游复工节奏早于往年，聚酯、农化等 领域出现"开门红"。中期看，"反内卷"政策持续推进，落后产能加速出清，行业固定资产投资增速转负，供给格局系统性 优化。长期看，新兴产业需求崛起——半导体材料、新能源材料、机器人材料等赛道景气上行，为化工行业打开"第二增长 曲线"。叠加美国将磷系农资列入战略资源、关税下调利好出口链等事件催化，化工板块正从单纯的周期博弈转向"周期复 苏+成长溢价"的双重驱动。 【需求端：新兴赛道崛起，打开成长新空间】 化工行业的增长引擎正在切换。传统下游（地产链）承压，但半导体、新能源、机器人等新兴产业带来强劲需求，形成"传 统复苏+新兴成长"的双轮驱动。 农化链：战略资源价值重估。华泰证券指出，2026年2月18日，特朗普政府援引《国防生产法》发布行政令，正式将磷元素 与草甘膦除草剂列为美国战略资源。磷资源与草甘膦的大国资源禀赋迥异，中国磷矿石自给率较高，而草甘膦净出口。若 后续全球各国逐步开启囤积需求，或将持续推升国际磷肥景气 ...

证券研究报告 基础化工 美将磷系农资列入战略资源影响深远 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 24 日│中国内地 动态点评 基础化工 增持 (维持) | 庄汀洲 | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570519040002 | zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com | | SFC No. BQZ933 | +(86) 10 5679 3939 | | 杨泽鹏* | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570525070014 | yangzepeng@htsc.com | | | +(86) 755 8249 2388 | 行业走势图 (10) 5 20 35 50 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Feb-26 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 重点推荐 | | | 目标价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 股票代码 | (当地币种) | 投资评级 | | 川恒股份 | 002895 CH | 50.73 | 买入 | | 云天化 | 600096 CH | 44.66 | 买入 | | 中海 ...

格隆汇2月25日丨川恒股份(002895.SZ)涨5.59%，报44.750元，股价创历史新高，总市值271.93亿元。 ...

今日早参 2026 年 2 月 25 日 庄汀洲 石油与化工行业首席研究员 座机：010-56793939 邮箱：zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com 刘俊 电力设备与新能源行业首席研究员 座机：85293275834 邮箱：karlliu@htsc.com 边文姣 电力设备与新能源行业联席首席研究 员 座机：0755-82776411 邮箱：bianwenjiao@htsc.com 今日热点 基础化工：美将磷系农资列入战略资源影响深远 2026 年 2 月 18 日，特朗普政府援引《国防生产法》发布行政令，正式将磷 元素与草甘膦除草剂列为美国战略资源，以保障国内供应链安全。全球近几 年 80%的磷资源下游用于磷肥，草甘膦由于转基因抗性种子需求成为全球第 一大除草剂，二者是全球农资的核心环节。据 USGS，2025 年美国磷矿石 进口依存度 16%，主要来自秘鲁及摩洛哥。美国草甘膦本土产能充足，但考 虑厂商到对欧洲及南美的供应，仍需进口中国产草甘膦。相对而言，中国磷 矿石自给率较高，而草甘膦净出口且产能略过剩。我们认为，磷系农资列入 战略物资因美国对二者供应稳定性的强调，短期在粮价低迷需求不振背景 ...

Group 1 - The phosphorus chemical sector opened with a rise of 6.42%, led by Chuanjin Nuo with a gain of 13.60%, and 11 stocks in the sector hit the daily limit [1] - The core logic driving the market's speculation on phosphorus chemicals is the expectation of price increases due to the global restructuring of the phosphorus supply chain, alongside a long-term tight balance in domestic phosphorus ore supply and demand [1][2] - The upcoming spring plowing season is expected to boost terminal demand for phosphorus fertilizers, while the growing demand for phosphorus-based materials in the new energy sector adds long-term growth momentum to the sector [1] Group 2 - On February 18, the U.S. President invoked the Defense Production Act to elevate phosphorus and glyphosate herbicides to national security priorities, indicating that shortages of these materials pose a direct threat to national security [2] - The international price of phosphorus fertilizers has surpassed $700 per ton, which has led to a recovery in the overall valuation of the domestic phosphorus chemical industry chain [2] - The domestic phosphorus ore market has maintained a long-term tight balance, with the spot price of 30% grade phosphorus ore averaging around 1,000 yuan per ton over the past three years, providing solid support for industry profitability [2] Group 3 - In phosphorus mining, China's phosphorus resources are rich but of low quality, and the difficulty and cost of mining are increasing due to years of high-intensity extraction and tightening environmental policies [3] - The production of glyphosate, which is the most widely used broad-spectrum herbicide globally, relies heavily on phosphorus ore, with China supplying about 70% of the world's glyphosate production [3] - The manufacturing of phosphorus fertilizers is significantly supported by high prices of core raw materials like sulfur, and companies with integrated production capabilities will have a competitive advantage [3] Group 4 - The explosive growth of the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets is driving rapid growth in the demand for lithium iron phosphate, which requires high-purity raw materials, making high-grade phosphorus ore resources scarce [3] - Companies that can integrate the entire supply chain from phosphorus ore to lithium iron phosphate will fully benefit from the growth in the new energy sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant surge on the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, particularly in the phosphorus chemical sector, which saw a nearly 7% increase in the phosphorus chemical index, driven by a U.S. executive order designating phosphorus as a critical defense material [1][4][12]. Group 1: Market Reaction and Performance - On February 24, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose over 1%, while the ChiNext Index surged by 1.76%, with the phosphorus chemical sector being the standout performer [1]. - A total of 16 leading phosphorus chemical stocks saw price increases exceeding 9% on the same day, indicating a collective surge in the sector [3]. - The main capital inflow into the phosphorus chemical sector exceeded 8 billion yuan in a single day, reflecting strong market interest [4]. Group 2: Policy Impact - On February 18, 2026, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order that classified phosphorus and glyphosate as critical defense materials, highlighting the strategic importance of these substances [6][7]. - The order revealed that the U.S. currently relies on imports for over 6 million kilograms of phosphorus annually, indicating a hollowing out of its domestic production capacity [9][10]. - This policy shift effectively ended the era of free trade in phosphorus chemicals, elevating phosphorus to the status of a strategic resource alongside rare earths and lithium [12]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - Following the U.S. executive order, domestic phosphorus ore prices surged, with the price of 30% grade phosphorus ore stabilizing above 1,020 yuan per ton, marking a significant increase from around 970 yuan per ton in January 2026 [13][14]. - The price of yellow phosphorus also saw an upward trend, with prices maintaining a high level around 23,300 to 23,600 yuan per ton [16]. - The price of industrial-grade phosphoric acid ranged from 6,200 to 6,400 yuan per ton, while monoammonium phosphate was priced between 3,250 and 3,300 yuan per ton, indicating a clear upward price trajectory across the industry [17]. Group 4: Demand Drivers - The demand for phosphorus is being driven not only by traditional agricultural needs but also by the burgeoning energy sector, particularly in lithium iron phosphate batteries, which require significant amounts of phosphorus [19][20]. - The expected increase in demand for phosphorus from the energy storage sector is projected to reach 4.31 million tons in 2026, with lithium iron phosphate contributing 4.07 million tons [19]. - The dual demand from agriculture and new energy sectors is creating a robust growth environment for the phosphorus chemical industry [20]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The reclassification of phosphorus companies from cyclical stocks to strategic resource stocks has led to a significant reevaluation of their market value, enhancing their pricing power [23][24]. - Companies with integrated phosphorus supply chains are positioned to benefit from rising prices and increasing demand, leading to expanded profit margins [23][29]. - The focus of institutional investors has shifted towards companies with strong resource bases and growth potential, as evidenced by the concentrated investments in specific phosphorus chemical firms [30][32]. Group 6: Company Spotlight - Chuanheng Co., which holds 530 million tons of phosphorus ore reserves and has an annual production capacity exceeding 3 million tons, has become a focal point for institutional investment [37][38]. - The company has established a strong market position in its traditional business segments and is also expanding into the lithium iron phosphate market, securing contracts with leading battery manufacturers [40]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, Chuanheng Co. reported revenues of 5.804 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.08%, and a net profit of 966 million yuan, reflecting its strong performance in a favorable market environment [42][43].

证券日报网讯2月24日，川恒股份（002895）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年2月13日， 公司股东为29603户。 ...