Group 1 - Vale SA's base metals division aims to achieve an annual copper production of 1 million tons, surpassing its 2035 target [2] - The CEO of Vale Base Metals, Shaun Usmar, expressed confidence in unlocking existing assets to exceed the current production goal of 700,000 tons by 2035 [2] - Major mining companies like Anglo American and Rio Tinto are competing to increase metal production through acquisitions [2] Group 2 - Only four mining companies, including Freeport-McMoRan and BHP Group, are expected to exceed 1 million tons of copper production in 2024 [4] - The demand for copper is anticipated to surge due to electrification and broader energy transitions, leading to rising prices amid supply concerns [4] - Vale's base metals division is also considering a joint development project with Glencore in Canada, which may require up to $2 billion and produce approximately 42,000 tons of copper annually [4]

格隆汇1月21日｜有媒体援引消息人士称，雪佛龙(CVX.US)计划于第一季度完成在新加坡的石油资产出 售。引能仕与嘉能可正与雪佛龙进行最后一轮谈判。出售包中包括雪佛龙持有的新加坡炼油公司50%的 股份、Penjuru终端以及在新加坡的零售加油站，雪佛龙还寻求在交易中加入其位于柬埔寨和马来西亚 的零售加油站。 ...

Core Insights - BHP Group Limited and Vale S.A. are major competitors in the global metals and mining sector, both poised to benefit from increasing infrastructure investments and long-term demand for essential minerals [2][22] BHP Group Limited - BHP achieved a record iron ore production of 263 million tons (Mt) in fiscal 2025, a 1% increase year over year, with Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) producing a record 257 Mt [4] - In the first half of fiscal 2026, BHP's iron ore production rose 2% year over year to 134 Mt, with WAIO contributing 130 Mt [5] - BHP is focusing on commodities like copper and potash, allocating nearly 70% of its medium-term capital expenditure to these areas, with copper production reaching a record 2,017 kilotons (kt) in fiscal 2025 [6] - The Jansen Stage 1 potash project is 75% complete and expected to produce 4.15 million tons of potash annually starting mid-2027, with Stage 2 projected to double production capacity by the end of the decade [8][9] - BHP's fiscal 2026 earnings estimates indicate a year-over-year rise of 23.1%, with upward revisions over the past 60 days [16] Vale S.A. - Vale's iron ore production for 2025 was around 335 Mt, meeting the high end of its target, with copper output at 370 kt and nickel output at 175 kt [10] - Vale is investing $1.6 billion in base metals in 2026, with copper production expected to reach 350-380 kt in 2026 and 700 kt by 2035, promising a 7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2035 [12][14] - The Bacaba project will contribute an average annual copper output of 50 kt over eight years starting in 2028, while other projects will enhance Vale's copper production capacity [13] - Vale's nickel production is projected to be between 175 kt and 200 kt in 2026, with expectations of 210-250 kt by 2030 [15] - Vale's earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 indicate year-over-year growth of 13.7% and 0.4%, respectively, with upward revisions in the past 60 days [17] Comparative Analysis - BHP's stock has appreciated 36.7% over the past year, while Vale's stock has gained 92.2% [22] - BHP trades at a forward price-to-sales multiple of 3.17X, compared to Vale's 1.63X [20] - Both companies are well-positioned for long-term growth, but Vale's attractive valuation and stronger one-year price performance make it a more favorable investment option at this time [22][23]

Core Insights - Rio Tinto (RIO.US) reported a 5% increase in copper production in Q4, primarily due to the expansion of underground operations at the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia [1] - The Pilbara iron ore operations set a production record in the last three months of the previous year, with iron ore remaining the largest revenue source for the company [1] - The company must announce its acquisition intentions by February 5 to avoid forfeiting the opportunity to acquire [1] Group 1: Copper Production - The Escondida copper mine in Chile, the largest in the world, saw a 10% decrease in production compared to the same period in 2024 due to lower output from the concentrator and reduced ore grades [1] - In contrast, the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine's production increased by 57% year-on-year, offsetting the decline from Escondida [1] Group 2: Iron Ore and Other Commodities - Iron ore exports increased by 7% to 91.3 million tons in Q4, although the annual export volume was below expectations due to recovery from adverse weather conditions [1] - The company began exporting iron ore from the newly constructed Simandou mine in Guinea in Q4, with expected sales of 5 to 10 million tons by 2026, a small fraction of the anticipated 323 to 338 million tons from the Pilbara region this year [1] - Other commodities saw a 2% increase in aluminum production, while lithium production reached a record high, aided by exports from Argentina [1] - The company's small titanium business, which is planned for divestment, experienced a 6% decline in production [1] Group 3: Management Focus - Since the appointment of new CEO Simon Trott, the company has been focused on refocusing its business, cutting costs, and controlling its previous ambitions in the lithium sector [2] - Trott stated that the company is implementing more efficient and streamlined working methods, which have already yielded positive results [2]

The first recipient of largesse from the seizure of Venezuelan oil assets has been a private company, Vitol. The contract is worth about $250 million. Vitol is the world’s largest independent oil trader, though Glencore ( GLNCY ) is theJoseph Shaefer is a geopolitical, economic, and resource analyst. He is a retired senior military officer with deep experience in Special Operations and Intelligence. He is also a former university professor and a retired Senior V.P. at Charles Schwab & Co. He is today the le ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Options: Sell Put [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The imposition of a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives by the White House has slightly affected the market's outlook for non - ferrous metals demand. The copper price has been somewhat affected but with a relatively limited decline. Given the high copper price, weak downstream demand, and obvious inventory accumulation recently, the copper price may be in a temporary shock pattern, with the shock range expected to be between 99,500 yuan/ton and 125,000 yuan/ton [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 19, 2026, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 101,030 yuan/ton and closed at 101,180 yuan/ton, a 0.41% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 101,680 yuan/ton, a 1.02% increase from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 220 yuan/ton to par against the current - month contract, with an average discount of 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The copper price ranged from 100,590 to 101,290 yuan/ton. The market trading was light, and the spot discount pattern may continue [2] 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the growth forecasts of China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan. The EU will hold an emergency summit on January 22 to discuss the US tariff issue, and the EU is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth 9.3 billion euros [3] - **Mine End**: Australian copper developer Austral Resources will acquire Glencore's Lady Loretta zinc - lead mine in Queensland. Canadian First Quantum Minerals lowered its copper production guidance for the next two years [4] - **Smelting and Import**: LME copper inventory rebounded from a two - month low, SHFE copper inventory continued to rise to a nine - month high, and New York copper inventory reached a new high. In December 2025, China's unforged copper and copper products exports increased by 117.0% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 21.8% year - on - year [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 2,450 tons to 147,425 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 7,762 tons to 152,655 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 329,400 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [5] 3.2 Strategy - The strategy for copper is neutral, with an expected shock range of 99,500 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell put options [6][7]

中辉有色观点 | | | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 特朗普言论震惊欧洲，欧洲即将反击，美国最高院开审库克案，美联储降息概率反 复，地缘溢价交易继续，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确 | | ★★ | | | | | | 定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银自身逻辑让位于黄金带来的避险属性，尽管白银未被征收关税，但同时交割交 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 易等持续，短期交易所调保，短期注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年， | | | | 全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 | | 铜 | | 特朗普为夺取格陵兰岛威胁对欧洲加征关税，欧美关系恶化，美元走弱，美国持续 | | ★ | 长线持有 | 虹吸全球铜资源，短期铜重新站稳 10 万关口，建议多单持有，移动止盈落袋，中长 | | | | 期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观多空交织，消费淡季高锌价对需求抑制作用明显，叠加宏观和板块情绪退潮， | | 锌 | 承压回落 | 锌承压回落。企业 ...

ab 16 January 2026 Global Research Sector Keys Copper Crunch - the Bull Market accelerates Equities Global Basic Materials Myles Allsop Analyst myles.allsop@ubs.com +44-20-7568 1693 Daniel Major Ethan Hong Associate Analyst ethan.hong@ubs.com +1-212-649 8258 UK Takeover Panel Disclosure: Analyst daniel.major@ubs.com +44-20-7568 3472 Amy Yi Li Analyst amy-yi.li@ubs.com +44-20-7568 2064 George Eadie Analyst george.eadie@ubs.com +1-646-996 4596 Alex Stansbury, CFA Associate Analyst alex.stansbury@ubs.com +1-21 ...

Group 1 - The proposed merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore may face significant regulatory challenges, particularly in China, potentially requiring asset sales for approval [1][2] - The current proposal involves an all-share acquisition, with Rio Tinto potentially acquiring "some or all" of Glencore [2] - China's regulators are expected to scrutinize the potential market dominance of a combined Rio Tinto-Glencore entity in the copper and iron ore sectors [3] Group 2 - Demand for copper assets is increasing due to their importance in the green energy transition and AI technologies, prompting both companies to shift focus towards copper [4] - The rising significance of copper is also reflected in other industry activities, such as Anglo American and Teck Resources planning a $53 billion merger, which will also require Chinese regulatory scrutiny [4] - Rio Tinto is considering an asset-for-equity swap to reduce the 11% stake held by its largest shareholder, Chinalco, with assets of interest including the Simandou iron ore mine and the Oyu Tolgoi copper project [3]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: US Copper Tariffs May Be Delayed, Bullish Sentiment Cools [1] Report Date - January 19, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's suspension of tariffs on key minerals, combined with the strengthening of the US dollar and the suppression of downstream market demand by high - priced copper, brings adjustment pressure to copper prices. Although the supply - shortage trend of copper concentrate is difficult to reverse, and there is still a logic for copper price increase due to global energy transformation and incremental demand, the short - term support has significantly decreased, and copper prices have entered a high - level shock pattern [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1.1 Last Week's Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated at a high level. As of January 16, it closed at 100,770 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.8%. The shortage at the mine end was not substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee of copper concentrate remained at a historical low. The strike at Chile's Mantoverde copper mine continued. Downstream demand was limited, and domestic inventory continued to accumulate. Trump's statement on not considering tariff hikes narrowed the LME - COMEX arbitrage space. With the strengthening of the US dollar index and the increase in profit - taking sentiment, copper prices fluctuated at a high level [5]. 1.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: The shortage of copper concentrate continued. The strike at Mantoverde copper mine in Chile continued. As of January 16, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 547,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.32%. The spot smelting fee of copper concentrate was - 46.4 US dollars/ton. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The total electrolytic copper output in January is expected to decline month - on - month [8]. - **Demand**: The downstream was under pressure at high copper prices, but the copper foil industry's operating rate increased. As of January 15, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 57.47%. In December, the operating rates of copper strips, copper bars, copper tubes, and copper foils were 68.21%, 52.74%, 68.84%, and 88.2% respectively [8]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper inventory continued to accumulate, and COMEX copper inventory continued to increase. As of January 16, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 21.35 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 18.26%. As of January 15, the total copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China increased by 17.2% week - on - week, and the total inventory increased by 2.128 million tons year - on - year. As of January 16, the LME copper inventory was 143,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.31%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 542,900 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4.81% [8]. 1.3 Strategy Suggestions - Trump's suspension of tariff hikes on key minerals, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the suppression of downstream demand by high - priced copper bring adjustment pressure to copper prices. Although the supply - shortage trend at the mine end is difficult to reverse, and the logic for copper price increase still exists, the short - term support has decreased, and copper prices have entered a high - level shock pattern [9]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - China's exports denominated in US dollars in December increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. In 2025, China's total goods trade volume exceeded 45 trillion yuan, and the trade surplus was expected to reach 1.2 trillion US dollars. - In 2025, China's social financing scale increased by more than 35 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 16.27 trillion yuan. - The core CPI increase in the US in December was 2.6%, remaining at the lowest level in four years. - US retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. - The PPI in the US in November rebounded to 3% year - on - year, and the core PPI increased by 0% month - on - month [13]. 2.2 Industry News Overview - In November 2025, copper production in Chile decreased by 3% to 130,900 tons. - Japan's Pan Pacific Copper raised the 2026 copper premium in Japan to a record 330 US dollars/ton. - Chile's copper exports in December were 146,401 tons, and the exports of copper ore and concentrates were 1,170,302 tons. - In 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 3.031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. - In 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 532,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. - Rio Tinto's Nuton project reached a copper supply agreement with Amazon's cloud computing service department [14]. 3. Spot - Futures Market and Positioning 3.1 Premium and Discount - As the delivery approached, the discount converged. The high price and limited supply of high - quality copper drove up the premium. The spot premium of Shanghai copper was stable during the week, but the discount widened at the end of the week. The LME copper 0 - 3 premium widened, and the New York - London copper spread weakened. Trump's statement on not considering tariff hikes on key minerals narrowed the LME - COMEX arbitrage space [17]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Positions - As of January 16, the trading position of Shanghai copper futures was 225,933 lots, a week - on - week increase of 9.42%, and the average daily trading volume was 286,732.4 lots, a week - on - week increase of 3.96%. As of January 9, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 9,769.24 lots, a week - on - week increase of 217.29%. As of January 13, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 63,391 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 7.11% [20]. 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply Side - The shortage of copper concentrate continued due to mine - end disruptions. The strike at Mantoverde copper mine in Chile continued. As of January 16, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 547,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.32%. The spot smelting fee of copper concentrate was - 46.4 US dollars/ton. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The total electrolytic copper output in January is expected to decline month - on - month [31]. 4.2 Downstream Operating Rates - As of January 15, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 57.47%. In December, the operating rates of copper strips, copper bars, copper tubes, and copper foils were 68.21%, 52.74%, 68.84%, and 88.2% respectively. The copper foil industry's operating rate increased for the eighth consecutive month [35]. 4.3 Inventory - As of January 16, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 21.35 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 18.26%. As of January 15, the total copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China increased by 17.2% week - on - week, and the total inventory increased by 2.128 million tons year - on - year. As of January 16, the LME copper inventory was 143,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.31%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 542,900 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4.81% [39].