证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料行业周报（20260119-20260125） 推荐（维持） 白酒减仓至历史底部，餐饮链及节庆食品迎催化 行业研究 食品饮料 2026 年 01 月 26 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：范子盼 联系人：王培培 邮箱：fanzipan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090001 证券分析师：田晨曦 邮箱：tianchenxi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090005 证券分析师：刘旭德 邮箱：liuxude@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080010 证券分析师：严文炀 邮箱：yanwenyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525070006 证券分析师：董广阳 邮箱：dongguangyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518040001 邮箱：wangpeipei@hcyjs.com 联系人：寸特彬 邮箱：cuntebin@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumer association in Guilin, Guangxi, conducted a comparative test of cooking wine products to provide scientific and objective consumption references for consumers, highlighting the importance of quality indicators in product selection [3] Group 1: Product Testing Results - Eight cooking wine samples were tested, including brands like Huguo, Weishi, and Hai Tian, with prices ranging from 2.8 yuan to 9.9 yuan [3] - All samples met the industry standard for alcohol content, with the Huguo brand showing an alcohol level of 16.0% vol, which is considered excellent [4] - All samples satisfied the standard for amino acid nitrogen content, with Huguo and Hai Tian brands reaching 0.50 grams per liter, significantly above the national requirement [5] Group 2: Safety and Quality Indicators - All eight samples had total acidity levels within the acceptable range of ≤5.0 grams per liter, but variations exist that may affect taste preferences [6] - None of the samples detected sulfur dioxide, indicating that no sulfur-based preservatives were used, which enhances consumer safety and product quality [6] Group 3: Consumer Guidance - The Guilin consumer association recommends that consumers check labels for complete information, prioritize products with simple ingredient lists, and select cooking wine based on specific culinary needs [7] - It is advised to store opened bottles in a sealed manner in the refrigerator and consume them within three months to maintain quality [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, particularly on premium brands like Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also highlighting the potential of other brands such as Wuliangye and Jinjing Wine [2][7]. Core Insights - The liquor market is undergoing a restructuring phase, with expectations of a double-digit decline in sales year-on-year for Q1 2026, but a potential stabilization in Q2 and a turning point in Q3 [2][7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the liquor sector by the end of 2026 and into 2027, driven by improved fundamentals and valuation [2][7]. - The consumer goods sector is showing structural improvements, with competition shifting from price to quality, leading to a gradual balance in supply and demand [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.41% last week, with liquor down 2.80%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.25 percentage points [6]. - Notable stock performances included a 19.59% increase for Haoxiangni and a 14.32% rise for Wancheng Group [6]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report highlights the price stability of Moutai, with a current price of 1560 RMB per bottle, up 20 RMB from the previous week, indicating a positive trend in pricing [8][27]. - The report notes that Moutai's pricing has found a bottom, reducing downward risks significantly, and anticipates a potential increase in sales volume as the Spring Festival approaches [8]. 3. Industry Events and Updates - The report mentions the upcoming IPO of Mingming Hen Mang, a leading snack retail chain, which is expected to catalyze the snack sector [10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain management and digitalization in enhancing competitive advantages for companies like Mingming Hen Mang [10]. 4. Valuation Table - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE is currently at 19.27x, with a premium rate of 10%, while the liquor sector's dynamic PE stands at 17.50x, indicating a zero premium [27].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the food and beverage industry Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is witnessing diverse trends such as the emergence of fresh food restaurants, smart products, and health management, indicating a shift towards quality consumption and lifestyle changes [2] - The 2025 consumption landscape in China is being reshaped by trends like the rise of night economy, health-oriented products, and the popularity of new Chinese-style beverages [4] - Local brands are gaining traction in the ready-to-drink coffee market, with significant sales growth driven by competitive pricing and innovative product offerings [4] Industry Environment - The pet economy is evolving, with a projected market size exceeding 300 billion yuan by 2024, driven by younger consumers seeking quality and diverse pet-related services [2] - The baking market in China has expanded to 365,000 stores, with a notable increase in health-conscious and visually appealing products, alongside a rise in pet baking [2] - The ready-to-drink coffee market is experiencing a transformation, with local brands like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng gaining market share through affordable pricing and innovative flavors [4] - The new dietary guidelines in the U.S. emphasize protein and healthy fats while reducing sugar intake, reflecting a global trend towards healthier food options [5] - The rise of community bakeries is characterized by personalized service and community engagement, proving that small stores can compete effectively [7] - New Chinese-style health drinks are gaining popularity, with a market potential reaching billions, driven by the demand for convenient health solutions [8] - The condiment industry is seeing a split between leading brands and those struggling to keep up, with a focus on health-oriented product innovation [8] - The takeaway market is evolving into a competitive landscape, with platforms like Meituan and Alibaba expanding into instant retail [9] - The no-sugar beverage market in China is expected to double in size within five years, driven by increasing health awareness [14] - The rise of new health-oriented food products is appealing to younger consumers, with a focus on traditional ingredients and health benefits [15] Top Brand News - The acquisition of yogurt brand Suan Nai Kuan Kuan by Mo Yogurt reflects the ongoing consolidation in the ready-to-drink beverage sector [16] - Yili Group is actively engaging in capital operations, including debt repayment and establishing investment subsidiaries to seek growth opportunities [16] - Huablin Group is revitalizing its War Horse brand to compete with Dongpeng, launching new sugar-free products to cater to health-conscious consumers [17] - New retail formats combining supermarkets, markets, and restaurants are emerging in Shanghai, showcasing a shift in consumer preferences and supply chain integration [17] - The collaboration between Lynk & Co and Starbucks highlights innovative marketing strategies aimed at enhancing customer engagement [19] - Gu Ming has exceeded its expansion goals, planning to open 4,000 new stores in 2026, focusing on supply chain efficiency and product diversification [19]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market continues its strong momentum from the previous year, with over 350 companies currently waiting to list as of early 2026 [1][3] - In the first three weeks of the new year, Hong Kong has completed 11 IPOs, raising approximately $4 billion [1] Group 1: IPO Market Dynamics - As of early 2026, the number of companies waiting to list has increased from 316 at the end of 2025 to over 350 within a few weeks [3] - The surge in IPO applications is ongoing, with 16 companies submitting applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in the first seven working days of January 2026 [3] - The IPO pipeline includes leading companies from various sectors, including technology and traditional industries, with notable names such as Ruipai Pet Medical and Anker Innovations [5] Group 2: Geographic and Sectoral Trends - Companies from both first-tier and lower-tier cities in China are actively pursuing listings in Hong Kong, with three companies from Henan province advancing their IPO plans within a week [5] - The IPO market is characterized by a concentration of leading firms across emerging and traditional sectors, with over 70% of listed companies in 2025 coming from information technology, biomedicine, new energy, and high-end manufacturing [12] Group 3: Historical Performance and Future Projections - In 2025, Hong Kong regained its position as the top global IPO market, with 119 IPOs and a total fundraising amount of 2858 billion HKD, marking a 68% increase from 2024 [14] - Predictions for 2026 suggest that the IPO fundraising scale could exceed 300 billion HKD, with estimates ranging from 320 billion to 350 billion HKD and around 150 to 180 companies expected to successfully list [14][12] Group 4: Quality and Market Sentiment - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange emphasizes the importance of IPO quality, acknowledging that the recent surge in applications has led to some lower-quality submissions [16] - There is a growing trend of differentiation in the market, where larger projects and industry leaders are more likely to attract long-term funding, while smaller projects may face challenges based on market conditions and performance [16]

Core Viewpoint - The importance of public relations (PR) in consumer goods companies has surpassed that of direct advertising spending, as neglecting PR can lead to severe brand crises and losses [6][9][32] Group 1: The Shift in Consumer Goods Management - Many consumer goods executives believe that having a good product is sufficient, but this mindset is outdated in the current media environment [2][4] - Companies face rapid backlash from the public due to minor issues, such as packaging or labor disputes, which can lead to significant financial losses [5][9] - The lack of respect for public opinion and inadequate communication strategies can result in catastrophic consequences for brands [5][9] Group 2: Financial Implications of PR - A budget of 10 million yuan in advertising may yield 100 million yuan in gross merchandise value (GMV), but a PR crisis can incur losses far exceeding that amount [7][9] - Direct sales losses from a crisis can include returns, consumer boycotts, and platform delistings, while indirect losses can affect brand trust and employee morale [9] - Investing in PR builds long-term consumer trust, which is more valuable than short-term advertising gains [9][10] Group 3: Media Relations and Budgeting - Many executives mistakenly view media spending as a form of extortion rather than a necessary investment for professional services [10][13] - Proper media investment should focus on reputable outlets that provide in-depth analysis and have a strong audience trust [13][20] - Establishing good relationships with influential media can be crucial during a crisis, as they are more likely to provide fair coverage [22][30] Group 4: The Role of Content in Crisis Management - Long-form media, such as articles on public platforms, can provide deeper analysis and context during crises, unlike short videos that may oversimplify issues [14][15] - Companies should balance their media strategies by using short videos for daily engagement while relying on in-depth articles for brand building and crisis management [16] Group 5: Building Relationships Before Crises - Companies often prioritize immediate sales over building long-term media relationships, which can leave them vulnerable during crises [18][20] - Establishing genuine connections with media and KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) is essential for effective crisis management [25][26] - Companies should invest time and resources in nurturing these relationships to ensure support during challenging times [21][26] Group 6: Leadership's Role in PR - The involvement of company leadership in PR is critical for understanding media dynamics and ensuring that PR is prioritized within the organization [28][30] - Leaders should elevate PR to a strategic priority, enabling quick decision-making during crises and fostering a culture of awareness among all employees [30][31] - Every employee's actions can impact the brand's reputation, making it essential for leadership to instill a collective responsibility for public relations [31]

【新华企业资讯1月23日】1月23日，海天味业控股总公司海天集团全球总部大厦启幕仪式在佛山隆重举行。活动以"从这里，向世界"为主题，将醒狮、"400 年正宗中国味"景墙揭幕等传统文化元素巧妙融入其中，政府相关代表、全球合作伙伴、行业人士及媒体齐聚现场，共同见证了这一历史性时刻。 图：海天集团大厦启幕仪式 此次海天集团全球总部大厦的启幕，不仅是企业物理空间的迭代升级，更是海天集团站在400余年发展积淀的全新起点上，向全球市场发出的宣言。这一里 程碑事件，标志着这家中国调味品领军企业，在向"全球综合性食品集团"奋进的征程中，迈出了至关重要的一步。 作为海天集团全球战略的核心载体，海天集团大厦地处广佛门户千灯湖CBD核心，交通便捷，坐拥广佛优质人才与成熟商务资源，周边总部经济集聚。项 目定位国际办公总部与创新型商业体，以超甲级标准建设，搭配国际物业服务。更有共享会务、公共食堂等完善配套与人文关怀服务，为企业提供高品质办 公体验。 多维能力跃升，锚定全球化航向 转自：海天味业 时间的指针拨回明朝万历年间，佛山第一家古酱园"茂隆"开业，400年老字号传奇自此起步；1955年，佛山当地25家优质酱园合并重组，为企业规模化 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the consumer sector, with significant gains in various consumer-related ETFs and stocks [1][3] - Pop Mart announced a share buyback of 2.51 billion HKD for 1.4 million shares, marking its first buyback action of 2024 [3] - The Consumer ETF (159928) has seen a net inflow of over 370 million HKD in the past five days, indicating strong investor interest [3] Group 2 - Huazhang Securities emphasizes the importance of the food and beverage sector, identifying it as a value opportunity due to high dividend yields and the potential for cyclical recovery [5] - The report suggests two main investment opportunities: efficient enterprises that excel in cost management and undervalued companies that can gain market share during downturns [5] - The white liquor sector is expected to undergo inventory clearance and recovery, with a focus on leading brands that have strong competitive advantages [6] Group 3 - The launch of Alibaba's Qianwen App marks a significant advancement in AI-driven consumer services, integrating various functions for seamless user experiences in shopping and travel [7] - The app's capabilities include a complete transaction loop in instant retail, travel planning, and shopping assistance, indicating a shift in consumer decision-making processes [7] - Tianfeng Securities predicts that AI technology will transform consumer engagement and growth mechanisms across various sectors, including e-commerce and online travel [7] Group 4 - The Consumer ETF (159928) is characterized by its resilience across economic cycles, with over 68.55% of its top ten holdings in essential consumer goods [8] - The top holdings include major liquor brands and agricultural companies, reflecting a diversified investment strategy within the consumer sector [9] - The ETF is positioned as an efficient investment vehicle for accessing the Hong Kong consumer market, particularly appealing to younger consumers [9]

证券之星消息，1月23日调味发酵品板块较上一交易日下跌0.32%，海天味业领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4136.16，上涨0.33%。深证成指报收于14439.66，上涨0.79%。调味发酵品板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600186 | 连化控股 | 6.35 | 4.27% | 124.85万 | 7.86亿 | | 603755 | 日辰股份 | 66'88 | 1.54% | 2.12万 | 8239.88万 | | 603696 | 安记食品 | 21.94 | 1.01% | 15.10万 | 3.30亿 | | 600298 | 安脂酵母 | 45.10 | 0.42% | 7.10万 | 3.20亿 | | 002495 | 佳隆股份 | 2.73 | 0.37% | 17.26万 | 4693.26万 | | 603317 | 天味食品 | 13.24 | 0.15% | 5.54万 | 7318.80万 | | 600305 | 恒顺醋业 ...

Group 1 - The overall performance of the food and beverage sector is currently experiencing fluctuations, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) trading near the waterline, reflecting the sector's overall trend [1] - Major consumer goods stocks are leading in gains, with Lianhua Holdings rising over 4%, while some liquor stocks like Shanxi Fenjiu and Yanghe are slightly down, dragging the sector's performance [1] - Research from Guotai Haitong Securities indicates that the current stock prices of liquor companies have largely reflected market expectations, with low valuation levels and attractive dividend yields, suggesting potential for price recovery [3] Group 2 - The period leading up to the 2026 Spring Festival is expected to be the most challenging for liquor pricing, but there is potential for a correction in the market's pessimistic outlook on liquor prices [3] - The food and beverage sector is currently at historical low valuation levels, making it a favorable time for left-side positioning, with the food index's price-to-earnings ratio at 19.42 times, at the 2.1% percentile of the last decade [3] - Future market trends may show a clear distinction between growth sectors and liquor, with increased focus on snacks and dairy industries, which are expected to benefit from policy support and improving monthly data [4] Group 3 - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with about 60% of its portfolio allocated to these sectors, and the top ten weighted stocks include major brands like Moutai and Yili [5] - Investors can also access the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF through linked funds, providing an opportunity to invest in core assets of the food and beverage sector [5] - The current market environment suggests limited downside for leading consumer companies post-2026, with significant upside potential due to attractive dividend yields and the ability to navigate through economic cycles [4]