证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2026-005 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于公司 2025 年三季度利润分配预案的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 1 / 2 一、审议程序 天山铝业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2026 年 1 月 15 日召开第 六届董事会第二十次会议，以 7 票同意、0 票反对、0 票弃权，审议通过了《关 于公司 2025 年三季度利润分配预案的议案》，本次利润分配方案尚需提交公司股 东会审议。 二、利润分配预案的基本情况 （一）本次利润分配预案的基本内容 1、2025 年三季度财务状况 根据公司 2025 年三季度财务报告（未经审计），公司 2025 年前三季度合并 报表归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 3,340,166,929.49 元；截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日，公司实际可供股东分配的利润为 14,779,555,733.89 元，母公司实际可供股东 分配的利润为 3,686,965,336.26 元。根据合并报表和母公司报表中可供分配利润 孰低的原则，截至2025年9 ...

Core Viewpoint - Resource commodities are emerging as a core investment direction due to macroeconomic changes and asset price revaluation, driven by U.S. fiscal expansion and a shift towards looser monetary policy, alongside domestic demand for key metals like copper, aluminum, and lithium [1][3][4] Global Macro Perspective - The combination of U.S. fiscal expansion and low interest rates is expected to drive global funds to reprice major assets, with a renewed focus on precious metals like gold due to increased demand from central banks and institutional investors [3] - The restructuring of global manufacturing, including the return of manufacturing to the U.S. and increased focus on energy security in Europe, is enhancing the underlying demand for resource commodities [3][4] Domestic Demand Dynamics - The new productive forces in China are creating a new demand structure for resource commodities, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and energy storage, where lithium shows strong demand elasticity [4] - The inventory cycle is shifting from passive destocking to active restocking, indicating a structural change in demand for raw materials and midstream products [4] Investment Framework - The resource commodities are categorized into defensive assets like gold and certain energy resources, and offensive assets like industrial metals (copper, aluminum) and rare resources, emphasizing a balanced "attack and defense" strategy [5][6] - Gold is highlighted as a defensive asset, gaining strategic value amid global conflicts and serving as a hedge against uncertainty [5] - Energy companies with resource control and cost advantages are positioned to provide sustainable cash returns and risk mitigation [6] Rare Metals and Strategic Assets - Rare metals like tungsten and antimony are gaining attention due to their high demand in AI infrastructure, aerospace, and defense sectors, with their scarcity providing pricing power amid supply chain disruptions [7] - The investment logic for these rare resources aligns with a "strategic asset" approach, suggesting potential for price revaluation in the medium to long term [7] Investment Strategy and Performance - The investment strategy emphasizes a high equity position in resource-related companies, focusing on mining and manufacturing sectors, with a significant allocation to upstream resources [8] - The performance of the fund, achieving a total return of 83.05% within less than a year, demonstrates the effectiveness of a forward-looking investment approach [9] Research and Risk Management - The investment discipline emphasizes long-term performance and compliance, integrating macroeconomic analysis with industry trends and individual stock fundamentals [11][12] - A systematic research framework is employed to assess macroeconomic conditions, industry phases, and individual stock evaluations, enhancing the sustainability of investment strategies [11][12]

Group 1: Market Overview - The AI applications and commercial aerospace sectors experienced significant declines, with stocks like Tianlong Group, Zhidema, and Guangyun Technology hitting the "20CM" limit down [1] - The non-ferrous metals and chemical sectors saw gains, with multiple stocks reaching historical highs [2] - Major ETFs such as the Huashang 300 ETF and the Shanghai 50 ETF showed significant trading volume, with the Huashang 300 ETF reaching a transaction amount of 12.52 billion yuan in the morning [1] Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector, including precious, energy, and industrial metals, performed well, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Huanxi Nonferrous achieving record stock prices [2] - The price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 36.71% from the beginning of the month, reaching 160,000 yuan per ton [3] Group 3: Lithium and Battery Materials - Tianli Lithium Energy announced a planned production line maintenance from January 14 to February 28, 2026, which is expected to reduce lithium iron phosphate output by 1,500 to 2,000 tons, but will not significantly impact operations [4] - The demand for lithium iron phosphate materials is strong due to the rapid growth of the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, leading to a potential supply shortage [4] Group 4: Silver Market - The silver market showed strong performance, with spot silver prices reaching a historical high of over 93 USD per ounce on January 14, although there was a significant drop of over 7% in the morning [4] - Analysts from Industrial Securities and Ping An Securities expect a long-term upward trend in silver prices due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like AI and re-industrialization [5] Group 5: High Dividend Assets - High dividend assets, including sectors like electricity, oil and gas extraction, and transportation, showed active performance, with leading stocks such as China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation rising [7] - Changjiang Electric Power reported a profit of 41.32 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.34% [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production, with a reported output of 3.79 million tons in November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1] - Cumulative production from January to November 2025 reached 41.165 million tons, also showing a growth of 2.5% compared to the previous year [1] - The article references a report by Zhiyan Consulting, which outlines the development strategy and investment opportunities in the Chinese primary aluminum industry from 2026 to 2032 [1] Group 2 - The listed companies in the aluminum sector include China Aluminum (601600), Nanshan Aluminum (600219), Yun Aluminum (000807), Xinjiang Zhonghe (600888), Shenhuo Holdings (000933), Zhongfu Industrial (600595), Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612), Dongyangguang (600673), Tianshan Aluminum (002532), and Minfa Aluminum (002578) [1] - The data presented is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and organized by Zhiyan Consulting, indicating the reliability of the statistics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum's actual controllers reduced their shareholding after the stock price reached a new high, cashing out over 800 million yuan, which has attracted market attention [1]. Group 1: Shareholding Reduction - On January 13, Tianshan Aluminum announced the completion of the share reduction plan by its actual controllers, Zeng Chao Yi and Zeng Chao Lin, who sold a total of 22,949,300 shares at an average price of 17.78 yuan, totaling approximately 816 million yuan [1][2]. - After the reduction, the combined shareholding of Zeng Chao Yi, Zeng Chao Lin, and their concerted parties decreased from 37.00% to 36.67% [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Tianshan Aluminum's stock price saw a significant increase of 116.6% in 2025, with the stock continuing to perform strongly into 2026 [4]. - During the reduction period, the stock price reached a new high of 18.98 yuan, and as of January 14, 2026, the closing price was 18.31 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 874.5 billion yuan and a dynamic P/E ratio of 17.99 times [4]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Stock Price - The rise in aluminum prices, ongoing share buybacks, and share cancellations have contributed to the continuous increase in Tianshan Aluminum's stock price [5]. - The company has established a complete aluminum industry chain, from bauxite to aluminum foil, which provides strong cost and integrated competitive advantages [5]. - Despite the overall aluminum price being in a fluctuating pattern over the past three years, the price increased by 15.9% in 2025, with further gains in early 2026, indicating potential for performance growth for Tianshan Aluminum [5]. Group 4: Share Buyback Plans - From 2022 to 2025, Tianshan Aluminum conducted three share buyback plans, with significant floating profits exceeding 1.8 times the repurchase price based on current closing prices [6][7]. - In 2022, the company repurchased 23,148,000 shares at an average price between 6.22 yuan and 6.72 yuan, while in 2024, it repurchased 15,155,300 shares at prices ranging from 4.86 yuan to 8.17 yuan [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend of "aluminum replacing copper" in various industries due to the increasing copper prices and supply-demand imbalances, indicating a long-term technological shift rather than a short-term market speculation [6][7][8]. Group 1: Copper-Aluminum Price Ratio - The current copper-aluminum price ratio is at a historical high of 4.21 times, up from a low of 1.7 times in 2005, reflecting significant supply-demand differences and elasticities between the two metals [10][12]. - The widening price ratio is driving the shift from aluminum as a technical alternative to a real necessity in various applications [16]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - Copper demand is increasing due to its role in the new energy era, while supply is constrained by long development cycles of 7-10 years and low environmental approval rates [17][18]. - In contrast, aluminum supply constraints are primarily at the smelting stage, with the industry undergoing a restructuring phase where companies with stable, low-cost, and green power resources will have competitive advantages [19][20]. - Both metals face supply elasticities, but the core constraints differ significantly, with aluminum becoming a feasible alternative in specific scenarios as technology advances [22]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - Systematic technological innovations in new materials, processes, and structures are making large-scale aluminum replacement of copper feasible [24]. - Key technological breakthroughs expected by 2025-2026 include solutions for creep, electrochemical corrosion, and improved conductivity, which will address traditional aluminum material pain points [25][26]. Group 4: Industry Applications - In the power transmission sector, aluminum has already replaced copper in long-distance transmission lines, and its use in 5G base stations and data centers is increasing due to weight and cost considerations [27]. - The air conditioning industry is moving towards aluminum, with major players like Daikin already using over 50% aluminum in their products by 2024 [28]. - The automotive sector is rapidly advancing in aluminum applications, with new aluminum alloy materials developed to solve corrosion issues and optimize creep performance, expected to be implemented by 2026 [30]. Group 5: Investment Logic - The current investment logic in the aluminum sector revolves around the "aluminum replacing copper" trend and the strategic value driven by resource nationalism [33]. - The electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate is nearing full capacity, with major companies like China Aluminum and China Hongqiao leading in production [34][36]. - Companies with aluminum ore and energy resources are expected to have more elastic performance in the face of price increases, with a focus on optimizing resource combinations [38]. Group 6: Financial Performance and Valuation - Financial performance metrics indicate that companies like China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum International have lower P/E ratios, while ROE is high for companies like Nanshan Aluminum and Huafeng Aluminum [39][40]. - The overall aluminum sector is not undervalued, but individual stock differentiation is evident, with some companies like Nanshan International Aluminum and China Hongqiao appearing relatively undervalued [41][42].

Group 1: Non-ferrous Metals Industry - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and supply disruptions significantly impacting metal prices [2][3] - Precious metals are supported by geopolitical factors, with gold prices expected to be bolstered by central bank purchases and rising ETF holdings in 2026 [3][4] - Copper prices are expected to remain strong due to supply constraints and positive macroeconomic expectations, with a focus on the impact of U.S. Federal Reserve leadership changes on prices [4] - Aluminum prices are experiencing upward momentum driven by strong macroeconomic performance and easing liquidity, with domestic production and demand recovering [4] - Tin prices are supported by supply bottlenecks, with ongoing tight supply conditions expected to continue due to production delays in key regions [5] Group 2: Jiangsu Guotai Company - Jiangsu Guotai is positioned as a leading player in the textile and chemical sectors, benefiting from global supply chain restructuring and the recovery of the new energy industry [7][8] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.19 billion, 1.25 billion, and 1.31 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with a target market value of 18.75 billion RMB based on a 15x PE ratio for 2026 [7] - Jiangsu Guotai's core trading business is supported by a global production layout, which helps mitigate external disruptions and maintain stable growth [8] Group 3: Automotive Industry - The humanoid robot sector is entering a phase of commercialization, with significant advancements showcased at CES 2026, indicating a potential acceleration in the global commercialization process [9][10] - Chinese humanoid robot companies demonstrated strong capabilities at CES 2026, with a notable presence and innovative product showcases [10][11] - The automotive sector is witnessing increased interest in humanoid robots, with several companies making significant technological advancements and product launches [9][10]

Group 1 - Domestic copper and aluminum futures prices have risen significantly as of January 14, 2026, indicating a positive trend in the industrial metals market [1] - The Industrial Nonferrous ETF (560860) closely tracks the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, which includes leading companies in copper, aluminum, and rare earths, attracting substantial capital inflows [1][3] - The fund experienced a net inflow of 250 million on January 13, with a total of 1.825 billion in net inflows over the past five trading days, and nearly 2.7 billion in the last ten days [1] Group 2 - The CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index comprises 30 leading companies in the industrial nonferrous metals sector, with copper (34.4%), aluminum (21.8%), and rare earths (13.6%) making up nearly 70% of the index as of January 9 [5] - The top ten constituent stocks of the index include major players such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum, collectively accounting for 56.18% of the index [7] - The Industrial Nonferrous ETF (560860) is the only ETF product tracking the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, providing investors with an efficient solution to invest in this sector [7]

关于实际控制人股份减持计划实施完成的公告 公司实际控制人曾超懿、曾超林保证向本公司提供的信息内容真实、准 确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2026-003 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一 致。 天山铝业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 12 月 4 日在巨 潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）上披露了《关于实际控制人减持股份的预 披露公告》，公司实际控制人曾超懿拟在上述公告披露之日起 15 个交易日后的 3 个月内通过集中竞价交易方式减持公司股份不超过 22,949,300 股；公司实际控 制人曾超林拟在上述公告披露之日起 15 个交易日后的 3 个月内通过集中竞价交 易方式减持公司股份不超过 22,949,300 股。 二、其他相关说明 截至本公告披露日，曾超懿通过集中竞价交易方式累计减持公司股份 22,949,300 股，占公司总股本的 0.50%；曾超林通过集中竞价交易方式累计减持 公司股份 22,949,300 股，占公司总股本的 ...

国泰海通晨报 2026 年 01 月 13 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【纺织服装研究】纺织服装业：Nike 与 Adidas 作为全球运动服饰领域的两大龙头，其战略方 向与业绩波动是 A+H 纺服板块投资最重要的风向标之一，二者不仅定义了行业景气度，更通过 深度的产业链绑定，直接决定了核心标的的估值逻辑与业绩弹性：1. 制造端（Alpha 来源）： 头 部代工龙头品牌集中度较高，Nike 与 Adidas 多合计贡献超过 30%，巨头的订单分配策略直接决 定了供应商的产能利用率与业绩波动。 2. 零售端（格局重塑）： 二者在大中华区的品牌势能起 伏，直接重塑了国内运动品牌的竞争格局与市占率空间，是判断运动行业发展驱动力的重要基础。 3. 渠道端（深度绑定）： 核心大中华区零售商（如滔搏、宝胜）与双雄利益深度捆绑，品牌方的 库存周期与折扣策略直接主导了渠道商的盈利水平。本报告旨在深度复盘近 5 年两大巨头在经历 疫情冲击、新疆棉事件、管理层更迭及关税博弈后的基本面修复路径，通过对比二者的战略得失， 预判未来行业格局的演变趋势及其对核心供应链、渠道商的传导影响。 [ ...