Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the impact of U.S. tariffs is leading to a conservative consumer outlook for the second half of the year, with expectations that demand for terminal products like PCs and smartphones during the year-end holiday season may not meet expectations [1] - TSMC's orders related to consumer applications are weakening, and there are concerns that TSMC's revenue in Q4 may decline from the historical high in Q3, marking the first time in nearly a decade that Q4 performance may not exceed Q3 [1] - Approximately 40% of TSMC's terminal applications are in the consumer sector, which is being affected by tariffs and economic changes, leading to a slowdown in growth for the peak season in Q4, although it is still expected to outperform the same period last year [1] Group 2 - TSMC's revenue in the first half of the year increased by about 40% year-on-year, with Q4 revenue estimated to be between $31.8 billion and $33 billion, averaging $32.4 billion, indicating a quarter-on-quarter decline despite being better than the same period last year [2] - The estimated decline in Q4 revenue is projected to be in the high single to mid-double digit percentage range compared to Q3 [2]

将采用3纳米制程技术的第二座晶圆厂则已经完成建设，来自美国先进制程客户兴趣浓厚，为此，台积 电正致力将当地厂区量产进度加速数个季度，以支持客户需求。 台积电预告，将采用N2和A16制程技术的亚利桑那第三座晶圆厂已经开始动工，由于客户对AI相关的需 求强劲，也将考虑加快生产进度。 台积电（2330）面临今年第4季新台币与美元营收恐不如第3季，为近十年首次出现第4季旺季业绩出现 季减的状况。 不过，台积电仍积极争取更多成长机会，特别是在客户群狂催下，美国六个厂的超大晶圆厂计划持续加 速推进。 台积电已拍板加码美国亚利桑那州厂区投资，预期在美国先进制程客户以及美国联邦政府、州政府和市 政府大力合作和支持下，有意投资总共1,650亿美元于美国先进半导体制造，当中包含六个晶圆厂、两 座先进封装厂，以及一间主要研发中心。 台积电预估，美国亚利桑那州专案投资到位后，估30%的2纳米以下先进制程产能将在当地生产，进而 支援苹果、英伟达、超微、高通与博通等美系大客户需求。 台积电在亚利桑那州的第一座晶圆厂已于2024年第4季采用4纳米制程技术成功进入量产，良率与台湾厂 相当。 当地第四座晶圆厂将采用N2和A16制程技术，而第五 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来源：内容来 自 ec.ltn ，谢谢 。 P1近期迈入量产 台积电近日展开高雄2纳米第二座厂（P2）设备装机，预计今年底前加入试产行列，随着第二座厂进 入装机阶段，第一座厂（P1）近期也迈入量产新里程碑。 台积电虽宣布加码投资美国千亿美元，但先进制程在中国台湾投资扩产的脚步持续热络，其中，位于 高雄楠梓科学园区第一座晶圆厂（F22厂P1），供应链传出，最近也进入量产，月产能上看1万片。 供应链设备业者透露，台积电今年3月31日在高雄举行2纳米扩产典礼，其中主要是P2厂上梁仪式， 经过近4个月的厂房赶工、建置无尘室等厂务工程后，P2厂A区昨开始进行设备装机，估计3-4个月 后，可加入试产行列，P1、P2规划今年共可达3.5万片月产能。 台积电展开高雄2纳米P2厂设备装机 5年内驱动75兆终端产品价值 台积电2纳米首度采纳米片（Nanosheet）架构，试产良率先前传出达65%，显著超越英特尔的18A、 三星的SF2，不过，台积电不透露良率多少，但强调比外界预期更好，且受惠AI相关客户需求热，2 纳米在头两年设计定案数量的高于3、5纳米同期表现，并预估5年内驱动全 ...

Group 1 - The price gap between TSMC's American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and its stocks listed in Taipei has surged to the highest level in 16 years, raising concerns about a potential overheat in the AI boom [2][3] - In July, TSMC's ADRs traded at a 24% premium compared to its Taipei-listed stocks, up from 17% in April and 7.4% over the past decade, indicating a significant increase in demand from U.S. market participants [2] - The increase in premium is attributed to TSMC's critical role in the global AI supply chain and the limited supply of ADRs, making conversion operations difficult [2] Group 2 - Since the release of ChatGPT in 2022, TSMC's ADRs have risen over 190%, while its Taipei-listed stocks have increased by less than 140%, with foreign ownership in the latter reaching nearly 74% [3] - Market observers suggest that the widening price gap signals caution, indicating a potential bubble in the U.S. market for popular tech companies' ADRs [3]

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇8月1日｜台湾加权指数收盘下跌108.14点，跌幅0.46%，报23434.38点。台积电(2330.TW)收跌 1.72%，报1140元新台币。 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇7月31日丨台湾加权指数收盘上涨80.8点，涨幅0.34%，报23542.52点。台积电(2330.TW)收涨 0.43%，报1160元新台币。 ...

台湾证交所加权股价指数收涨0.3%，至23,542.52点，至2月24日以来最高收盘水平。台积电上涨0.4%。 ...

当三星电子的股价在首尔股市猛地窜升5.54%时，不少人还没反应过来——这个最近总被台积电压一头 的韩国巨头，怎么突然被资本捧上了天？答案藏在一份千亿级的合同里：他们和特斯拉敲定了芯片代工 合作，金额高达22.8万亿韩元（约1183亿人民币）。更有意思的是，马斯克不光认了这笔账，还放话 说"这只是最低金额"，甚至要亲自下场盯着生产。偏偏这时候，一贯对科技巨头没好脸色的特朗普，也 突然对马斯克变了腔调。这盘棋，下得可真够热闹的。 先说说三星这笔"救命钱"般的订单。合同期限一直到2033年底，占三星2024年营收的7.6%，分量不轻。 具体分工明确：现在三星先给特斯拉造A14/AI4芯片，美国得克萨斯州的泰勒工厂投产后，将专门生产 下一代AI6芯片；台积电则先在台湾产AI5芯片，之后转移到美国亚利桑那州工厂。全球芯片代工重 心，正借着这些订单往美国挪。 马斯克、特朗普（资料图） 但三星能拿到这笔单子，多少有点"时运"。这两年他们在代工市场日子憋屈，台北市场研究机构 TrendForce数据显示，今年第一季度台积电占67.6%份额，三星从8.1%掉到7.7%，苹果、英伟达等大客 户被台积电抢去，根源是先进制程跟不上。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged, with notable internal dissent among board members, marking the first time since 1993 that multiple members voted against the decision [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-2 to keep the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change since January [4]. - Board members Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller opposed the decision, advocating for an immediate rate cut, highlighting significant internal disagreement [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.38%, the S&P 500 down by 0.12%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.15% [5][6]. - The closing figures for the indices were: Dow Jones at 44,461.28, Nasdaq at 21,129.67, and S&P 500 at 6,362.90 [7]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting, emphasizing the need to evaluate the latest economic data and trade policy impacts [10]. - The market's expectations for a rate cut in September decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 64% to 46% [10]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - Powell noted that while the U.S. economy remains generally robust, recent data indicates a slowdown in economic activity, primarily due to reduced consumer spending [13][14]. - Inflation rates have significantly decreased since mid-2022 but remain slightly above the long-term target of 2%, with the overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.5% over the past 12 months [14]. Group 5: Gold Market Impact - The decision by the Federal Reserve and Powell's comments led to a significant drop in gold prices, which fell by over 1.5% [15][16]. Group 6: Microsoft Performance - Microsoft reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue, with a market capitalization surpassing $4 trillion, making it the second company to achieve this milestone after Nvidia [18][21]. - For the fourth fiscal quarter, Microsoft’s revenue increased by 18% year-over-year to $64.7 billion, marking the fastest growth in over three years [23]. - Azure revenue grew by 39% in the fourth quarter, exceeding analyst expectations, with projections for Azure and other cloud services to exceed $75 billion in fiscal year 2025, a 34% increase from the previous fiscal year [23].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a significant surge in performance driven by strong earnings reports and positive economic data, indicating robust economic growth and potential investment opportunities. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices showed slight gains ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with notable increases in high-performing stocks like LendingClub and Wingstop, which surged over 31% and 29% respectively [2][8]. - The overall performance of the stock market is characterized by a broad rally among high-performing stocks, with significant gains reported across various sectors [8]. Group 2: Economic Data - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported a preliminary estimate of a 3.0% year-over-year growth rate in real GDP for Q2 2025, significantly exceeding market expectations of 2.6% [3][15]. - The second quarter's GDP growth not only reversed the previous quarter's contraction of -0.5% but also reflects strong consumer spending and a notable decline in imports [16]. Group 3: Company Earnings Reports - Wingstop reported a substantial increase in adjusted earnings per share, leading to a stock price surge to its highest level since 2022 [8]. - LendingClub's earnings report showed revenue and earnings per share exceeding expectations, with strong guidance for Q3 performance [8]. - Teradyne, a semiconductor testing equipment manufacturer, also saw its stock rise over 22% following a strong earnings report [8]. Group 4: Upcoming Earnings and Analyst Expectations - Upcoming earnings reports from major companies like Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon are anticipated to influence market trends, with analysts projecting strong revenue growth for Apple and Amazon [10][12]. - Analysts expect Microsoft's earnings to reflect its leadership in AI and robust core business growth, suggesting a favorable risk-reward profile [11].