来源：金十数据 然而，市场上周对芯片制造商博通和云基础设施供应商甲骨文的季度财报并不满意，尽管两家公司的营 收均超出预期，并且发布的预测显示AI需求正在飙升。 如今严重依赖债务市场为其数据中心建设融资的甲骨文，对于如何继续为其承诺的项目提供资金披露的 细节甚少。该公司表示，由于来自Meta Platforms(META.O)和英伟达(NVDA.O)等公司的新合同，本财 年资本支出将从先前预测的350亿美元增至500亿美元。 该公司还在大幅增加租赁承诺。截至11月30日，甲骨文拥有为期15至19年的数据中心租赁和云容量承 诺，总额达2480亿美元，较8月底增长了148%。 在人工智能市场的至少一个角落，投资情绪已明显转为负面。 与AI基础设施建设密切相关的三家公司——博通(AVGO.O)、CoreWeave(CRWV.O)和甲骨文(ORCL.N)， 在上周大幅下挫后，周一（6月16日）股价再度遭遇重挫。 尽管这三只股票今年迄今仍保持可观涨幅（CoreWeave于今年三月上市），但近期的趋势表明，投资者 担忧投资回报最终能否证明当前巨额支出的合理性。 威灵顿管理公司后期增长业务主管马特·维泰勒周一表示： "这无疑 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a day of volatility with all three major indices opening lower and closing down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.11%, the Shenzhen Component by 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.1% [1][13] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.72 trillion yuan, a decrease of 49.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with over 4,300 stocks declining [1][13] Macro Economic Factors - The Bank of Japan is set to discuss a potential interest rate hike from 0.5% to 0.75% during its monetary policy meeting on December 18-19, which would be the highest rate in 30 years [1][13] - Concerns about tightening liquidity and the ongoing worries regarding an AI bubble in overseas markets have contributed to market sentiment [1][13] AI and Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor and AI-related sectors saw significant declines, particularly in communication and entrepreneurial AI stocks, likely due to weak overseas AI trading [3][15] - Despite recent downturns, there is a strong expectation for continued growth in capital expenditure in the AI sector next year, with a focus on upstream supply chain stocks in A-shares [3][15] - Communication ETF (515880) and semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) are recommended for investors looking to capitalize on domestic alternatives and AI-related opportunities [3][15][20] Automotive Sector - The smart automotive sector performed relatively well, with the smart automotive ETF (159889) rising by 0.19% [8][21] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has granted approval for the first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving vehicles, marking a significant step towards commercialization [8][21] - Tesla's advancements in L4 autonomous driving technology may serve as a benchmark for domestic players aiming to initiate similar operations [9][21] New Energy Sector - The new energy sector experienced notable declines, with the electric grid ETF (561380) down 3.13% and the photovoltaic ETF (159864) down 3.05% [11][23] - Factors contributing to this decline include external macroeconomic influences and the approaching sales off-season, leading to concerns about the sustainability of energy storage demand [11][23] - Despite the current downturn, the outlook for energy storage remains positive, with expectations of sustained demand into the first half of next year [11][24]

Market Overview - A-shares have seen a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping from a high of 4034 points in mid-November to near 3800 points [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.74%, while the Hang Seng Index and the China Enterprises Index dropped by 1.54% and 1.79%, respectively, marking recent lows [1] - Bitcoin has recently fallen below $86,000 for the first time in two weeks, and gold prices ended a five-day increase, with COMEX gold down by 0.61% [1] ETF Performance - Gold-themed ETFs have experienced notable declines, with the Yongying Gold Stock ETF dropping by 4.16%, leading the market [2] - Other ETFs in sectors such as semiconductor, new energy, photovoltaic, and artificial intelligence also saw declines exceeding 3% [1][2] Reasons for Market Adjustment - The recent downturn in A-shares is attributed to three main factors: a significant drop in the AI sector of the US stock market, a hawkish stance on interest rate cuts, and increased liquidity demands as the year-end approaches [4] - The AI sector's decline was highlighted by major US tech stocks losing substantial market value, impacting the A-share technology index [4] Future Market Outlook - Despite recent volatility, several brokerages suggest that the spring market rally may still be anticipated, supported by policy measures and liquidity improvements as year-end approaches [6] - There is a consensus among institutions that the current market conditions may present opportunities for a "spring rally," particularly in sectors aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" such as quantum technology and biomanufacturing [7] 2026 Market Predictions - Looking ahead to 2026, institutions are optimistic about the equity market, particularly in technology, which is expected to remain a key focus [9] - The return of foreign capital to the Chinese market is anticipated, with sectors such as high-end manufacturing and biotechnology expected to offer significant investment opportunities [10]

Market Movements - U.S. stock index futures are all down ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures down 0.03%, S&P 500 futures down 0.13%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.23% [1] - WTI crude oil is down 1.69% at $55.71 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down 1.63% at $59.57 per barrel [2] - Major European indices are also experiencing declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.43%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.45%, France's CAC40 down 0.11%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.28% [2] Economic Data and Predictions - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 50,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.5%, the highest level since 2021 [3] - The U.S. Commerce Department will also release October retail sales data, with economists predicting a modest 0.1% growth in overall retail sales, while consumer spending growth is expected to accelerate when excluding auto and gas sales [3] Company News - Nvidia (NVDA.US) has acquired SchedMD to strengthen its AI ecosystem, focusing on open-source technology for large-scale computing tasks [8] - Amazon (AMZN.US) is planning to lay off 370 employees at its Luxembourg headquarters, part of a broader strategy to reduce bureaucracy and optimize resource allocation towards key strategic areas, including AI [9] - Ford (F.US) has announced a $19.5 billion charge to abandon its electric vehicle strategy, marking a significant shift towards traditional fuel and hybrid models [10] - Luminar (LAZR.US), a lidar technology company, has filed for bankruptcy after terminating its contract with Volvo, listing debts between $500 million and $1 billion [10] Analyst Predictions - UBS remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market, predicting the S&P 500 will reach 7,300 points by June 2026 and 7,700 points by December 2026, driven by economic resilience, declining interest rates, and ongoing investments in AI [5] - Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecast for 2026 from $10,650 per ton to $11,400 per ton, citing ongoing risks related to U.S. tariffs on copper imports [6] - Fitch Ratings has warned that U.S. banks have increased lending to non-bank financial institutions by 26% year-over-year, raising concerns about systemic risks [7]

盘前市场动向 1. 12月16日(周二)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.03%，标普500指数期货跌0.13%，纳指期货跌0.23%。 | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数跌0.43%，英国富时100指数跌0.45%，法国CAC40指数跌0.11%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.28%。 | | --- | | 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油跌1.69%，报55.71美元/桶。布伦特原油跌1.63%，报59.57美元/桶。 | 英伟达(NVDA.US)收购SchedMD，以开源战略加固AI生态护城河。SchedMD的核心业务是提供大规模计算任务调度软件，这类任务往往需要占据数据中心 服务器的巨量资源。该公司的开源技术Slurm允许开发者与企业免费使用其基础软件，公司主要营收来源于工程实施与维护支持服务。本次交易财务条款尚 未披露，英伟达承诺将继续以开源形式分发SchedMD的软件产品。英伟达表示："支持最新英伟达硬件的Slurm系统已成为生成式AI关键基础设施的重要组成 部分，被基础模型开发者与AI构建者广泛用于管理模型训练和推理需求。"这家芯片巨头正通过加大开源技术投入、强化AI生态布局，以应对 ...

每经AI快讯，12月16日，博通美股盘前延续跌势，现跌近1%，上一交易日收跌5.6%。 ...

近期，科创板可谓新星云集，受到市场的高度关注。 首先，摩尔线程于12月5日挂牌上市，它是2022年以来审核最快的科创板IPO。12月5日，摩尔线程智能科技（北京）股份有限公司正式在上海 证券交易所科创板挂牌上市，成为2024年以来科创板最大规模IPO。作为2022年以来审核最快的科创板IPO，摩尔线程从受理到过会仅88天。摩 尔线程已成为国内少数能够提供从FP8到FP64全计算精度支持的GPU厂商之一，也是国内率先推出支持DirectX12图形加速引擎的国产GPU企 业。 无独有偶，沐曦股份近期已启动科创板申购。沐曦股份科创板IPO申请于2025年6月30日获得受理，于10月24日获得上市委会议通过。11月12日 证监会已同意沐曦股份首次公开发行股票并于科创板上市的注册申请。12月5日，沐曦股份公布申购情况。沐曦股份表示，本次募集资金用于投 今日（12.16），A股震荡回调，全市场费率最低档的科创50指数ETF（588870）回调超2%，盘中成交额逼近5000万元。资金借道ETF逆市逢跌 布局，科创50指数ETF（588870）近5日有3日获净流入！截至12月15日，科创50指数ETF（588870）年内份额 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the technology-focused ETF, Guotai (589100), has seen a decline of over 2%, while the semiconductor industry is experiencing structural opportunities driven by AI and other factors [1] Industry Summary - Recent external policies may accelerate the AI model training process in China, indicating a positive outlook for the AI sector [1] - Broadcom's Q4 FY2025 results exceeded expectations, with AI chip sales increasing by 74% year-over-year, and continued high growth is anticipated in the next quarter [1] - The electronic industry is witnessing a sustained recovery in demand, effective supply clearance, and rising prices for memory chips, with domestic production efforts exceeding expectations [1] - Structural opportunities are emerging in areas such as AI computing power, semiconductor equipment, key components, and rising storage prices [1] Company Summary - The Guotai ETF (589100) tracks the semiconductor index (000685), which has a daily fluctuation limit of 20% and selects listed companies from the STAR Market involved in the entire semiconductor industry chain, including design, manufacturing, and packaging/testing [1] - The index focuses on core technology areas such as semiconductor materials, equipment, and design, reflecting the overall performance of semiconductor-related listed companies on the STAR Market [1]

Group 1 - Semiconductor stocks continue to weaken, with notable declines in companies such as SMIC down 3.79% to HKD 62.25, Hua Hong Semiconductor down 2.97% to HKD 65.3, ASMPT down 2.39% to HKD 73.4, and Shanghai Fudan down 2.24% to HKD 40.16 [1] - Former President Trump announced that NVIDIA will be allowed to export its H200 AI chips to "approved customers" including China, with the condition that the U.S. government receives a 25% share from these sales. This move may accelerate AI model training in China but could pressure domestic AI chip manufacturers in the short term [1] - Broadcom is expanding its market share in the AI chip sector due to increased demand for custom chips driven by large-scale data center construction. However, the CEO indicated that the gross margin for Q1 2026 will be lower than the previous three quarters due to a higher proportion of AI business, raising investor concerns about the return on investment in AI by large tech companies [1]

International Market Overview - The European stock indices closed higher, with the German DAX up 0.07% at 24,203.43 points, the French CAC40 up 0.7% at 8,124.88 points, and the UK FTSE 100 up 1.06% at 9,751.31 points [11] - The US stock market saw slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.09% at 48,416.56 points, the S&P 500 down 0.16% at 6,816.51 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.59% at 23,057.41 points [11] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 1.34% at 25,628.88 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 2.48% [11] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell 1.31% to 50,168.11 points, while the KOSPI index in South Korea dropped 1.84% to 4,090.59 points [11] Domestic News - The article by Xi Jinping in "Qiushi" magazine emphasizes that expanding domestic demand is a strategic move essential for long-term economic stability and security [12] - In November, China's industrial output increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 4.2% [13] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued a plan to promote high-quality development in the service outsourcing sector, aiming to cultivate competitive enterprises by 2030 [14] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a decline in housing prices across 70 cities, with a year-on-year decrease expanding [15] Company News - Meituan announced the suspension of its "Tuan Hao Huo" business to focus on exploring new retail formats [16] - Nvidia released the latest version of its AI model series, Nemotron 3, aimed at providing customizable AI development capabilities across industries [16] - Aerospace Electronic plans to increase its investment in its subsidiary by 728 million yuan [16] - Pengding Holdings intends to invest a total of 4.297 billion yuan in a Thai park by 2026 [16] - Jingjia Microelectronics reported that its subsidiary's AI SoC chip has completed key development stages [16] Research Recommendations - The report on low-altitude economy highlights various developments, including the establishment of a logistics route for drones and the successful test flights of new drone models [17] - The report on 3D NAND suggests that it may become a new growth curve in storage, driven by the expansion of AI applications [18] - The report on the computer industry notes Google's collaboration with a Chinese company to develop AR glasses, marking a significant advancement in the AR field [19]