Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming industry is expected to experience a resonance of cycles and growth opportunities by 2026, with the swine sector reaching a critical point of de-stocking, leading to potential value recovery for cost-leading enterprises. The beef industry is projected to maintain a high prosperity cycle until 2027, while the poultry sector shows a clear upward price trend due to supply contraction [1]. Swine Sector - The swine sector is witnessing a significant slowdown in production capacity due to ongoing losses and declining pig prices, reaching a de-stocking critical point. Leading companies with low-cost advantages are expected to realize value release, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Dekang Agriculture. Smaller pig farming companies with growth potential are also suggested for attention [2]. Beef Sector - The beef sector is in a high prosperity cycle, with slow supply recovery and rising global beef prices driven by import policy restrictions. The main upward wave of the cycle is anticipated to begin in 2026, with recommendations for companies such as Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu Organic Milk [3]. Poultry Sector - In the poultry sector, the yellow chicken segment is experiencing capacity de-stocking due to continuous losses, although parent stock remains high. Companies with rapid capacity expansion and strong cost control, such as Lihua Agricultural Science and Technology, are favored. The white feather chicken segment is awaiting a cycle reversal, with recommendations for integrated leaders like Shennong Development and upstream chick leaders like Yisheng Livestock and Poultry [4]. Feed Sector - The feed sector emphasizes cost control and industry chain extension, focusing on companies with strong cost management capabilities and established overseas operations. Recommended companies include Haida Group and Bangji Technology [5]. Animal Health Sector - The animal health sector highlights the importance of research and innovation, recommending companies that can avoid price wars. Key focuses include product layout in the pet segment and breakthroughs in high-value pet pharmaceuticals. Recommended companies include Reap Bio, which benefits from the recovery of livestock prices, and companies like Kexin Bio, Plank Bio, and Zhongmu Bio with strong competitive advantages [6]. Planting Industry - The planting industry is expected to see grain prices stabilize, influenced by high production and inventory levels. Grain security remains a priority, with a shift from cyclical to growth valuations in the seed industry. Recommended companies include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with attention to seed companies like Kangnong Seed Industry and Longping High-Tech [7]. Pet Industry - The pet industry is thriving, driven by domestic demand and exports, with rapid growth of domestic brands. Key companies to watch include pet food brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., and pet supplies companies like Yuanfei Pet and Tianyuan Pet [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent losses in pig farming, combined with the implementation of capacity control policies, are expected to enhance the expectation of capacity reduction in the pig industry, potentially leading to a long-term increase in pig prices. Low-cost, high-quality pig enterprises are likely to gain excess returns [1][3]. Pig Farming - The national breeding sow inventory fell below 40 million heads by the end of October, a reduction of over 350,000 heads compared to September, indicating gradual effects of capacity reduction [1][3]. - Pig prices initially declined but later showed slight recovery due to improved terminal consumption as temperatures dropped. As of November 21, the pig price was 11.62 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg [2]. - The average weight of pigs marketed increased to 128.81 kg as of November 20, with a week-on-week increase of 0.33 kg, driven by rising weights due to lower temperatures and increased marketing by farmers [2]. Cattle Industry - Short-term prices for beef cattle have slightly declined, with the price of calves at 32 yuan/kg (up 0.63% week-on-week) and fattened bulls at 25.58 yuan/kg (down 0.16% week-on-week). The cumulative increase for calves since the beginning of the year is 32.73% [4]. - The Ministry of Commerce's investigation into import beef safeguard measures has been extended to November 26, 2025, due to complex case circumstances, warranting attention to upcoming import safeguard measures [4]. - Long-term supply tightness in beef is anticipated due to previous losses leading to significant capacity reduction, with prices expected to enter an upward cycle around 2026-2027 [4]. Dairy Industry - Raw milk prices are currently at a cyclical low, with a price of 3.03 yuan/kg as of November 14, reflecting a 31% decline from the cyclical peak. Continued losses in raw milk are expected to drive ongoing capacity reduction [4]. - As supply contracts due to capacity reduction, raw milk prices are anticipated to stabilize and recover in the future. Companies to watch include Yuran Dairy and China Shengmu [4]. Poultry Sector - The price of white feather broilers is under pressure due to reduced purchasing activity, with a current price of 7.15 yuan/kg (up 0.03% week-on-week) and chick prices at 3.48 yuan each (down 0.01% week-on-week). Ongoing avian influenza outbreaks may restrict upstream capacity [5]. - The average price of eggs is 6.25 yuan/kg (down 0.24% week-on-week), with chick prices at 2.80 yuan each (down 0.1% week-on-week). The ongoing avian influenza is causing a shortage of quality breeding stock, which may drive egg prices up in the future [5]. Agricultural Products - The USDA report for November has led to a pullback in soybean meal prices, with spot prices at 3070 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton week-on-week) and futures prices at 3012 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton week-on-week) [6][7]. - The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, awaiting positive drivers, while attention should be paid to actual soybean purchases and South American planting weather [7].

Core Viewpoint - The successful approval of the "Yisheng 817 broiler chicken" as a national poultry variety marks a significant milestone in China's poultry breeding history, indicating a transition from breeding technology to a nationally recognized variety [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Development - The "Yisheng 817 broiler chicken" was developed to address the shortage of specialized breeds for traditional chicken dishes like "pa chicken" and "roast chicken" [3]. - The breeding model of the 817 chicken integrates existing commercial breed resources, resulting in a breed that is efficient in growth, adaptable, and cost-effective, thus paving a unique development path for China's poultry industry [3][4]. - The 817 chicken has become one of the three main types in China's poultry industry, with an expected output of 2.47 billion birds in 2024, accounting for 17.2% of the national broiler output, and approximately 40% of this production will come from Shandong Province [4]. Group 2: Breeding and Market Impact - The breeding model of the 817 chicken involves a hybridization of fast-growing white feather broiler roosters and high-yield brown-shelled egg layers, which allows for the integration of advanced global breeding results [4]. - The "Yisheng 817 small white feather broiler chicken" has been well-received in the market, with 400,000 sets promoted within a few months [4]. - The breed is characterized by low cost, fast growth, and high-quality meat, making it suitable for both traditional Chinese and Western-style chicken products [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Minsheng Securities highlights the cyclical recovery in the livestock industry, emphasizing the valuation shift for leading companies in the sector [1] Livestock Industry - The domestic livestock cycle is expected to reverse, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets likely to experience upward momentum [1] - Official capacity regulation in the pig industry is anticipated to accelerate cash flow improvements for leading enterprises, potentially transforming them into dividend stocks as industry capacity contracts [1] - In the poultry sector, limited supply fluctuations are expected, with market conditions likely to improve alongside demand recovery, allowing leading companies to achieve higher cash flow and dividend returns [1] Feed Industry - The deepening industrialization of livestock and poultry farming, along with clear industry segmentation, positions leading feed companies to further enhance their competitive advantages through technology and service [1] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a scarce growth sector, expected to benefit from demographic changes [1] Investment Recommendations - Recommended livestock companies include: - For livestock: Youran Dairy, Modern Dairy, and China Shengmu [1] - For pigs: Huazhong Holdings, Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Tiankang Biological, and Shennong Group [1] - For poultry: Lihua Stock, Yisheng Shares, and Shennong Development [1] - For feed: Haida Group [1] - For pets: Guibao Pet [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector, particularly focusing on the livestock industry and its cyclical recovery [1][4]. Core Insights - The livestock industry is experiencing a reversal of internal competition, which is expected to support long-term pig prices. As of November 21, the price of live pigs was 11.67 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% [1]. - The beef market is entering a new price increase phase, with the average price of beef at 66.38 CNY/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 8% [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the livestock sector, suggesting that their cash flow will improve due to official capacity control measures [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report provides a weekly summary of agricultural product data, highlighting trends in livestock prices and supply dynamics [12]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The swine industry is seeing orderly progress in reversing internal competition, which is expected to stabilize profitability [13]. 2.2 White Chicken - A slight increase in supply is noted, with attention on seasonal consumption recovery [13]. 2.3 Yellow Chicken - Supply remains at a low level, with potential benefits from improved domestic demand [13]. 2.4 Eggs - The egg market faces significant mid-term supply pressure, with wholesale prices at 3.63 CNY/jin, down 28% year-on-year [13]. 2.5 Beef - A new round of beef price increases is anticipated, with a focus on the upward trend in the beef cycle for 2025 [13]. 2.6 Raw Milk - The report suggests that the de-stocking of dairy cows may accelerate in Q4, potentially leading to a price turning point for raw milk [13]. 2.7 Soybean Meal - Short-term supply is expected to be ample, while medium-term demand and supply dynamics are projected to strengthen [13]. 2.8 Corn - Domestic supply and demand balance is tightening, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [13]. 2.9 Sugar - Short-term increases in imports are noted, with attention on the rhythm of arrivals and fluctuations in crude oil prices [13]. 2.10 Rubber - Prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, with a positive outlook for the medium term [13]. 2.11 Palm Oil - Short-term performance is weak, with medium-term policy support being a focus [13]. 2.12 Cotton - Inventory pressure is neutral, with demand still needing recovery [13]. 2.13 Red Dates - Limited demand recovery is noted, with attention on weather conditions in new production areas [13]. 3. Market Trends - The report discusses market trends and price movements across various agricultural products, indicating a complex interplay of supply and demand factors [12].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [78]. Core Insights - The report highlights a gradual reduction in production capacity in the pig farming sector, with the number of breeding sows in China dropping below 40 million as of October, reflecting a decrease of over 350,000 from September [2][35]. - The report suggests that the recent losses in pig farming, combined with capacity control policies, are likely to enhance expectations for production capacity reduction, which may lead to a long-term increase in pig prices [2][35]. - The report recommends focusing on companies such as TianKang Biological, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Dekang Agriculture [2][35]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Pig prices initially declined but showed slight recovery later in the week, with an average price of 11.62 CNY/kg as of November 21, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.04 CNY/kg [11]. - The average weight of pigs sold increased to 128.81 kg, up by 0.33 kg week-on-week, driven by improved weight gain due to lower temperatures [24][35]. - The report indicates that the industry is currently facing losses, but the expected reduction in production capacity may lead to higher long-term price stability for quality pig farming companies [35]. Cattle Farming - Short-term prices for beef cattle have slightly decreased, with the price of fattened bulls at 25.58 CNY/kg, down 0.16% week-on-week, while calf prices increased to 32 CNY/kg, up 0.63% week-on-week [38]. - The report notes that the supply of beef cattle is expected to tighten in the medium to long term, with prices anticipated to enter an upward cycle between 2026 and 2027 [38]. Dairy Farming - The price of raw milk is currently at a low point, recorded at 3.03 CNY/kg, which is a 31% decrease from the peak [39]. - The ongoing losses in the dairy sector are expected to continue driving production capacity reduction, with a potential stabilization and recovery in raw milk prices anticipated as supply contracts [39]. Poultry Farming - The report indicates a decrease in the enthusiasm for restocking broiler chickens, with the price of white feather broilers at 7.15 CNY/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.03 CNY/kg week-on-week [46]. - The price of chicken eggs averaged 6.25 CNY/kg, down 0.24 CNY/kg week-on-week, with expectations for future price recovery due to supply constraints from ongoing avian influenza outbreaks [46][49]. Agricultural Products - The report notes a correction in soybean meal prices following the USDA report, with spot prices at 3070 CNY/ton, down 28 CNY/ton week-on-week [62]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring actual soybean purchases and planting weather in South America for future price movements [62].

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创农业 10 月白羽肉禽月报 毛鸡价格稳后上扬，鸡苗价格高位偏强 ❑ 毛鸡&鸡苗：毛鸡价格稳后上扬，鸡苗价格高位偏强。 父母代产能方面，2025 年 10 月协会样本点在产父母代存栏 2307 万套，同比 +2.5%，环比+0.7%；后备父母代种鸡平均存栏量 1532 万套，同比-6.8%，环比 -2.2%。10 月父母代鸡苗价格为 47.79 元/套，最新报价 25 年第 44 周数据为 45.97 元/套。 综合来看，鸡苗端环比上涨，毛鸡养殖端环比下降。10 月毛鸡养殖亏损 1.78 元/羽，环比盈利大幅下降；孵化场盈利 0.65 元/羽，环比盈利大幅扩张。 行业研究 农林牧渔 2025 年 11 月 23 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张皓月 邮箱：zhanghaoyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070009 证券分析师：陈鹏 电话：021-20572579 邮箱：chenpeng1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521080002 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) ...

Core Insights - The white feather broiler industry chain experienced a dramatic profit decline in 2025, with prices falling to the lowest point in nearly eight years since 2018 [1][3]. Industry Overview - From January to October 2025, the profit of the entire white feather broiler industry chain dropped by over 94% year-on-year, with profits falling from 9.86 yuan per bird in 2019 to 0.68 yuan per bird in 2023, and further down to 0.01 yuan per bird in 2025 [3][5]. - The theoretical profits for the incubation, breeding, and slaughtering segments were -0.06 yuan per chick, -0.15 yuan per bird, and 0.22 yuan per bird respectively, showing significant year-on-year declines of 110.71%, 141.67%, and an increase of 168.19% [3][5]. Incubation Segment - The incubation segment's profits showed a fluctuating trend from 2021 to 2025, with 2025 profits reaching the second-lowest level in five years due to low chick prices and rising feed costs [5]. - The average price of commodity broiler chicks was 2.75 yuan per chick from January to October 2025, a decrease of 20.06% year-on-year, leading to a significant shrinkage in revenue [5]. Breeding Segment - The breeding segment's profitability is primarily influenced by chick and feed costs, which typically account for 70%-85% of total breeding costs [7]. - In 2025, the theoretical breeding profit was a loss of 0.15 yuan per bird, the lowest in five years, driven by a significant drop in broiler prices to an average of 3.46 yuan per pound, down 6.99% year-on-year [7]. Slaughtering Segment - The slaughtering segment has seen a recovery in profits, with costs reaching a low point, allowing for profit margins to expand [3][5]. - Current market conditions indicate stable prices for broilers in various regions, with slight fluctuations based on local supply and demand dynamics [8][11]. Market Dynamics - The overall market for broilers is characterized by slow sales and increasing inventory levels, with a reported average sales rate of 85.11% [14]. - The slaughtering profits are near the breakeven point, with prices for broilers in Shandong ranging from 3.46 to 3.60 yuan per pound [14].

Core Viewpoint - Yisheng Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in stock price and financial performance, with significant decreases in revenue and net profit year-on-year, indicating potential challenges in the poultry farming sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of November 21, Yisheng's stock price is 8.73 CNY per share, down 2.02% during the trading session, with a market capitalization of 9.659 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, Yisheng's stock has decreased by 5.78%, with a 4.49% drop over the last five trading days and a 1.36% decline over the past 20 days [1]. - For the period from January to September 2025, Yisheng reported operating revenue of 2.036 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.7869 million CNY, down 89.42% year-on-year [2]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Yisheng has 42,200 shareholders, a decrease of 12.13% from the previous period, with an average of 17,754 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 13.80% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.692 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 602 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Ownership Structure - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Guotai Zhongxin Livestock Breeding ETF holds 14.8357 million shares, an increase of 5.3849 million shares from the previous period, while Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is a new entrant holding 7.1349 million shares [3]. Business Overview - Yisheng Co., Ltd. specializes in the breeding and sales of various poultry and livestock, with its main revenue sources being chicken (76.18%), pigs (15.47%), livestock equipment (5.48%), dairy products (1.72%), and other income (1.14%) [1].

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is facing significant financial pressure due to prolonged low prices, leading to a collective action among listed pig companies to supplement their cash flow by reallocating funds from previously planned projects [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - The main pig futures contract hit a new low of 11,440 yuan/ton, marking a 17.76% decline over the past three months, reflecting a pessimistic market sentiment [1]. - The current supply-demand dynamics in the pig industry remain loose, with no fundamental changes expected, and the anticipated year-end price rebound may not materialize until the second half of 2026 [1][5]. Company Actions - Companies like Tangrenshen and Yisheng shares have announced reallocations of funds from their projects to bolster liquidity, with Tangrenshen repurposing 78.96 million yuan for this purpose [2][3]. - Tangrenshen's financial performance has been adversely affected, reporting a revenue increase of 8.87% to 18.586 billion yuan but a net loss of 365 million yuan, with a debt ratio reaching a historical high of 65.51% [2][3]. Market Conditions - The pig price has been on a downward trend, with the average price dropping to 11.69 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 28.15%, indicating an oversupply in the market [5][6]. - Despite expectations for a seasonal demand increase, the actual market response has been weak, with the anticipated "腌腊行情" (cured meat demand) failing to significantly uplift prices [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the pig price will continue to fluctuate downward in the short to medium term, with a potential turning point not expected until the second half of 2026 as the industry undergoes necessary capacity adjustments [6].