证券研究报告 环保 | 环境治理 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 08 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 联系人 市场表现： | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | | | 15.25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 高 | | | | | | | 17.17/12.00 | 最 | | | 内 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | 13,725.00 | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | 3,660.00 | | | | | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | ...

Macro Strategy - The March PMI data indicates three characteristics of economic recovery: the pre-positioning of work due to the Spring Festival, better recovery of manufacturing demand compared to supply, and weak consumer service consumption [1][30]. - The manufacturing PMI for March is 50.5%, showing a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, while the service PMI is at 50.3%, also up by 0.3 percentage points [1][30]. - The new order index for manufacturing increased by 0.7 points to 51.8%, indicating stronger demand recovery compared to supply [1][30]. Industry Insights - The report highlights the need for macro policies to be adjusted in response to potential economic pressures in the second quarter, particularly in exports and real estate [1][30]. - The construction industry PMI rose to 53.4%, reflecting seasonal recovery, but remains at a historically low level for this time of year [1][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of tariff increases on exports and the ongoing trends in the real estate market [1][30]. Company Analysis - The report provides insights into various companies, including their performance forecasts and investment ratings, such as the significant growth in sales for Lao Pu Gold and the strategic partnerships for Jianghuai Automobile [9][15]. - Companies like Yubiquitous and Geli Pharmaceutical are noted for their innovative product developments and market potential, with investment ratings maintained at "buy" [11][12]. - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals reported a revenue of 275.25 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.75% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 4.553 billion yuan, up 20.82% [14]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that the overall financial performance of companies is under scrutiny, with adjustments made to profit forecasts for several firms based on market conditions and operational challenges [15][19]. - Companies such as China Communications Construction Company and Orient Securities are highlighted for their revenue growth and strategic adjustments in response to market dynamics [22][23]. - The report also notes the importance of cash flow management and cost control in maintaining profitability amid fluctuating market conditions [22][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1]. Core Insights - The national carbon market has expanded to include the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, with a gradual tightening of quotas expected [8]. - There is a focus on garbage incineration to support ultra-low PUE zero-carbon projects, highlighting collaboration opportunities with IDC [9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cash flow asset value reassessment in a low-interest-rate environment [17]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The carbon market expansion will cover over 60% of national carbon emissions, adding approximately 1,500 new enterprises and increasing carbon emissions coverage by about 3 billion tons [8]. - The distribution of quotas will be based on verified actual emissions, ensuring no shortfall for enterprises in 2024, with a balanced quota system for 2025 and 2026 [8]. Company Tracking - Green Power's dividend payout ratio for 2024 is raised to 71.45%, with a projected revenue of 3.399 billion yuan, a 14% decrease year-on-year [4]. - Yongxing Co. is expected to see a revenue increase of 65% to 3.765 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant rise in free cash flow [4]. Collaboration Opportunities - The report discusses three collaboration models for garbage incineration and IDC, highlighting the economic advantages and potential return on equity (ROE) increases [12]. - The collaboration is expected to enhance profitability and cash flow for garbage incineration companies, shifting their business model from government to business [15]. Market Performance - The environmental protection and public utilities index fell by 2.12%, underperforming the broader market [47]. - The report lists top-performing stocks in the environmental sector, with notable gains for companies like Huanhong Technology and Hanlan Environment [51].

Group 1: Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism has successfully created a "cultural IP + tourism + technology" full industry chain layout through asset restructuring and strategic transformation, promoting deep integration and innovation in the cultural tourism industry [2][11] - The company faced challenges in its animation business from 2019 to 2020, resulting in a 45.02% revenue decline in 2020. However, it leveraged its rich animation IP resources to achieve a strategic transformation and enhance profitability, with 2023 revenue reaching 722 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.81% [2][11] - The company has expanded its tourism assets across regions such as "Daxiangxi," "Dahuangshan," "Dachengyu," and "Danangling," forming a national chain of scenic spots and enhancing brand value through diversified offerings [3][11] Group 2: Lexin Technology - Lexin Technology is a small but robust IoT chip design manufacturer with a stable operating team and a concentrated shareholding structure, which enhances team motivation and operational stability [4][11] - The company has established a competitive advantage by developing low-power, high-performance chips based on the open-source RISC-V architecture, which better meets the needs of AI devices at the edge [4][12] - Lexin's ecosystem includes a rich developer community of over 3 million global developers, supporting mainstream IoT applications and creating a platform effect that drives growth [12] Group 3: Tonghua Jinma - Tonghua Jinma has shifted from relying on mergers and acquisitions to innovation-driven high-quality development, focusing on R&D breakthroughs and asset optimization [17][19] - The company is advancing a new drug for Alzheimer's treatment, with a projected peak sales potential of around 7 billion yuan, addressing a significant market need for new therapies [17][19] - The company has a target market capitalization of 22.2 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 26% from its current market value, with a "buy" rating assigned [19] Group 4: China Duty Free Group - China Duty Free Group reported a 16.38% decline in revenue for 2024, with net profit down 36.4%, reflecting challenges in the duty-free market [21] - The company is expanding its city duty-free store projects in response to policy changes, aiming to enhance its market presence [21][24] - Despite the challenges, the company is focusing on digital transformation and member engagement to improve customer experience and retention [24]

掺烧+供热规模持续提升，对外拓展探索海外机遇。公司通过积极拓展存量垃圾、工业固废、市政污泥 等多源垃圾处理服务，加大协同处置力度，显著提升产能利用率。2024 年，公司顺利推进填埋场存量 垃圾的掺烧试验以及兴丰应急填埋场存量垃圾开挖项目，全年累计掺烧存量垃圾超70 万吨（2023 年为 64.60 万吨）。公司积极推动热电联产，2024 年为周边工业企业提供蒸汽合计16.44 万吨，同比提升 21.24%。公司正式投入运营广州市首个移动储能供热项目，未来供热业务有望实现进阶跃升。公司积 极把握行业发展机遇，通过对外项目拓展、收并购等方式扩大公司业务区域布局，提升公司业务规模， 2024 年9 月，公司联合中标怀集县环保发电项目。2024 年12 月，公司在越南成立全资子公司，积极探 索海外项目投资发展新途径。 24 年垃圾处理量同增12%，产能爬坡+经营提效支撑业绩增长。2024 年公司垃圾发电项目运营实现营收 37.11 亿元，同比增长7.16%，毛利率41.69%，同比下降3.93pct。截至2024 年底，公司共控股运营14 个 垃圾焚烧发电项目，产能合计32,090 吨/日，均已投运；公司全资运营4 ...

核心观点 2024 年，公司实现营业收入37.65 亿元，同比增加 6.45%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润8.21 亿元，同 比增加 11.67%。公司经营业绩同比提升，主要得益于垃圾焚烧项目产能利用率的持续提升。2024 年公 司净利率22.15%，同比增加0.99 个百分点，主要得益于费用管控加强，综合成本压降。期间费用率方 面，2024 年公司销售费用率、管理费用率、研发费用率和财务费用率分别为0.01%、7.44%、3.48%和 8.99%，同比变化-0.07、-0.71、-0. 15 和-1.71 个百分点。2024 年，垃圾焚烧发电项目的垃圾进厂总量 928.56 万吨，同比增加11.83%；垃圾焚烧发电量 46.71 亿度，同比增长7.21%；上网电量 41.25 亿度， 同比增长11.76%；折算吨垃圾上网电量约为444 千瓦时，基本持平去年水平。 事件 2024 年，公司实现营业收入37.65 亿元，同比增加 6.45%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润8.21 亿元，同 比增加 11.67%；扣非归母净利润7.76 亿元，同比增加15.57%；加权净资产收益率8. 18%，同比减少1.11 个百 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies involved in brain-computer interface technology, indicating strong potential for growth and investment opportunities [5][6]. Core Insights - The invasive technology breakthroughs are expected to enhance consumer and medical rehabilitation market awareness of brain-computer interface technology, with significant advancements anticipated in 2025 [5]. - Non-invasive brain-computer interface products are likely to accelerate commercialization, presenting further investment opportunities [5]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that are leading in the brain-computer interface technology space, such as Sihuan Pharmaceutical, Yanshan Technology, Sanbo Brain Science, Chengyitong, Innovation Medical, and Dineike [5][6]. Summary by Sections Macro Strategy - The ZEW investor expectations index in Germany surged to its highest level in two years, reaching 51.6, significantly above market expectations [25]. - The report highlights the expansion of fiscal spending in Germany amidst legislative discussions aimed at overcoming the debt brake mechanism [25]. Fixed Income - The current yield spread for high-yield Chinese dollar city investment bonds is 313 basis points, while investment-grade bonds stand at 86 basis points, both at historically low levels [26][30]. - High-yield bonds are seen as having more room for spread compression compared to investment-grade bonds, making them attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [26][30]. Industry Analysis - The report emphasizes the importance of the environmental equipment manufacturing industry, with a focus on promoting high-quality development and the transition towards green, low-carbon, and circular economies [8]. - Companies like Weiming Environmental and Wangneng Environment are highlighted for their strategic initiatives and confidence in future growth [8].

Summary of Yongxing Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Yongxing Co., Ltd. operates in the waste incineration industry, primarily based in Guangzhou, with over 20 years of operational experience. The company controls 14 incineration projects with a total capacity of 32,000 tons per day and 4 biomass treatment projects with a designed capacity of 2,600 tons per day. In January 2025, the company plans to increase its stake in a solid waste treatment project to 50% to strengthen its industry position [4][8]. Core Business Logic - The core logic for Yongxing's sustained value growth and cash flow enhancement lies in its significant resource advantages and ample capital expenditure. The company's capacity utilization rate is approximately 70% in 2023, indicating substantial growth potential. The company does not rely on government subsidies but aims to enhance its valuation through improved asset quality, profitability, and cash flow. In 2023, free cash flow turned positive, with a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% [3][4]. Financial Performance - From 2019 to 2023, Yongxing achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% in revenue and 55% in net profit. Although recent growth has slowed due to all projects entering the operational phase, long-term growth potential remains strong. The company expects to recognize over 100 million yuan in subsidy income once the Guangzhou Phase II project enters the national subsidy directory, indicating potential underestimation of profitability [4][9]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2023, Yongxing's revenue per ton was 417 yuan, and gross profit per ton was 190 yuan, both leading the industry. The weighted average return on equity (ROE) reached 9.3%. High profitability is attributed to elevated waste treatment fees and electricity income, along with efficient evaporation technology and Guangdong's benchmark coal-fired electricity price [4][15][16]. Capacity Utilization and Future Projections - The company anticipates an increase in capacity utilization from 71% in 2023 to 92% by 2026, with projected net profits of approximately 770 million, 910 million, and 1 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively. The company is expected to enjoy a higher price-to-earnings (PE) valuation due to its asset superiority [4][26]. Market Opportunities - Yongxing is actively engaging in the treatment of municipal and industrial waste, leveraging the substantial stock of municipal waste in Guangzhou (approximately 70 million tons) to fill capacity gaps. The company is also exploring partnerships with high-quality clients, such as data centers, to expand its energy supply and heating services [5][7][21]. Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges such as depreciation pressure and potential impacts from changes in accounting policies. However, opportunities exist in expanding waste resources and enhancing heating services, which are expected to drive continued growth [10][11]. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - Yongxing's cash flow structure is robust, with a healthy balance between waste treatment fees (36%), benchmark electricity prices (51%), and provincial subsidies (7%). The company has a low reliance on national subsidies compared to industry averages, enhancing cash flow security. The dividend payout ratio for 2023 was 64%, with a dividend yield exceeding 3% [12][19]. Geographic Advantages - Guangzhou's status as a population inflow area provides a stable and growing source of waste for Yongxing. The city's waste generation is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7% from 2025 to 2035, which will support increased capacity utilization [14][20]. Future Growth Directions - Yongxing plans to focus on expanding its waste processing capacity and improving heating services. The company is also exploring opportunities in solid waste management in various regions and has outlined plans for emergency landfill projects [21][22]. Valuation and Market Position - Yongxing's asset superiority allows it to command a premium in valuation. The company is expected to see its price-to-book (PB) ratio increase as capacity utilization and ROE improve. The current overall PE level is around 14 times, higher than the industry average of 12 times, with potential for further upward movement [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant investment activities in Xinjiang by central enterprises, with over 130 billion yuan expected to be invested in 54 projects across various sectors including energy and new energy storage [4][16]. - The first cross-regional green electricity transaction in China has been successfully completed, marking a milestone in the construction of a unified national electricity market [5][21]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued guidelines to promote voluntary disclosure of greenhouse gas emissions by enterprises, aiming to enhance the green transition and international cooperation [25][26]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From March 10 to March 14, the environmental, gas, water, and electricity sectors saw increases of 2.63%, 2.22%, 2.17%, and 1.80% respectively, while the CSI 300 index rose by 1.59% [3][10]. Industry Perspectives - **Investment in Xinjiang**: Central enterprises are heavily investing in Xinjiang, with projects covering energy, new energy storage, and equipment manufacturing, driven by the region's resource advantages and government support [4][16][17]. - **Green Electricity Trading**: The successful completion of the first cross-regional green electricity transaction involved 52.7 million kilowatt-hours, with wind power accounting for 78% and solar power for 22% of the total [5][21][22]. - **Voluntary Emission Disclosure**: The new guidelines aim to establish a comprehensive framework for voluntary greenhouse gas disclosure by 2027, promoting proactive climate responsibility among enterprises [25][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various sectors: for thermal power, it recommends Jiangsu Guoxin and cautiously suggests Sheneng Shares and Zhejiang Energy; for nuclear power, it recommends China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power; for hydropower, it recommends Yangtze Power and cautiously suggests Huaneng Hydropower [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of "zero-carbon park" construction, with solid waste industrial parks being a key implementation scenario. The central government has highlighted the establishment of zero-carbon parks and factories, aiming for a significant reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP by 2025 [7][14][20]. - The integration of waste incineration with AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) is seen as a promising model for developing zero-carbon parks in developed regions. This model can provide comprehensive energy supply and enhance resource utilization [7][14]. - The Shanghai Pudong zero-carbon industrial park, which incorporates waste incineration and AIDC, has achieved a solid waste resource utilization rate of 98.9% and a green energy share of 93.7% [7][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Acceleration for Zero-Carbon Parks - The report discusses the emphasis on "zero-carbon park" construction in recent government meetings, with plans for accelerated implementation across various regions [14][15]. - The tightening of energy consumption indicators is highlighted, with a target of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 3% in 2025 [20][21]. 2. Waste Incineration's Role in Zero-Carbon Parks - The report uses the example of the Shanghai Pudong project to illustrate how waste incineration can contribute to zero-carbon parks, achieving high resource utilization and energy efficiency [27][28]. - The project integrates multiple waste treatment facilities, enhancing the overall sustainability and energy supply stability of the park [27][28]. 3. Recommended Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on companies with advantageous locations and solid waste industrial park layouts, including Wangneng Environment, Junxin Co., and Yongxing Co. [7][8]. - It highlights the potential for these companies to benefit from the revaluation of their carbon reduction value and location advantages [7][8].