历经两年多的行业洗牌及产能出清，锂电行业在2025年按下"回暖键"，迎来向上突围的曙光。 这一年，供给端"反内卷"成效显现，叠加以储能为代表的需求端爆发式增长，锂电产业链供需格局逐步 改善，拉动产品价格、企业盈利水平企稳回升。 在景气度攀升背后，市场竞争逻辑也在悄然转变。当前，锂电行业正加速跳出低价竞争、产能比拼的粗 放模式，转向出海破局、技术迭代、前瞻布局等新路径，迈入以"价值竞争"为内核的高质量发展新阶 段。 01 "反内卷"成效显现 2025年，锂电行业在价格深跌后开启供给侧改革。在政策与产业协同发力下，一场贯穿锂矿开采至终端 应用的全链条"反内卷"行动拉开大幕，成为推动行业复苏的重要力量。 今年7月1日，新矿产资源法实施，锂矿被纳入战略性矿产目录并实行统一审批管理，开采门槛大幅提 高；7月7日，宜春市自然资源局发布《关于编制储量核实报告的通知》，提到8宗锂资源矿权存在出 让、变更、延续登记等越权情况，其中涉及宁德时代（300750）枧下窝矿区。8月9日，枧下窝矿区采矿 许可证到期停产，成为锂电行业"反内卷"的标志性事件。 随后，磷酸铁锂、隔膜、铜箔、六氟磷酸锂等赛道骨干企业纷纷召开座谈会，就价格自律、 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Longpan Technology Group Co., Ltd. announced a planned production reduction for its subsidiary Changzhou Liyuan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. to ensure the stable operation of its lithium iron phosphate production line, with a reduction of approximately 5,000 tons expected during a one-month maintenance period starting January 1, 2026 [1] Group 1 - The production line of Changzhou Liyuan has been operating at full capacity since Q4 2025, and the maintenance is scheduled for January due to the later timing of the Spring Festival this year [2] - Other lithium iron phosphate companies, including Hunan Youneng New Energy Battery Materials Co., Ltd. and Guizhou Anda Technology Energy Co., Ltd., have also announced production reductions ranging from 3,000 tons to 35,000 tons, with maintenance concentrated in January 2026 [1][2] - Longpan Technology is simultaneously advancing its capacity expansion for lithium iron phosphate, planning to increase the production capacity of its project from 62,500 tons per year to 100,000 tons per year, with the total planned capacity rising to 187,500 tons per year [2] Group 2 - Longpan Technology plans to raise up to 2 billion yuan through a specific stock issuance to fund high-performance phosphate-based cathode material projects and to supplement working capital [3] - The company emphasizes that developing high-performance products and having a well-structured capacity will provide a competitive edge in a phase of intensified industry competition [3] - The strategy of simultaneous maintenance and expansion is seen as a key move to navigate the industry's cyclical turning point, aiming to stabilize prices in the short term while expanding capacity to meet future demand [3]

2025年锂电行业增长明显，尤其是磷酸铁锂电池出货量持续攀升，市场份额加速上提，在此趋势下，电池企业多传业绩捷报。但作为主要角 色的磷酸铁锂材料厂家，出现截然相反的情况，出货量上升的同时，业绩表现不如人意。 以上述5家企业为例，2025年前三季度，仅湖南裕能一家实现盈利，另外4家企业均处于亏损状态。好的一面是这些企业均大幅减亏，但要实 现真正的盈利可能还需要时间。 反内卷趋势下，上游企业挺价意愿强烈，减产检修企业持续增加！截至目前，磷酸铁锂行业TOP10， 已有半数企业官宣 减产检修计划， 检 修时间预计维持一个月。 具体来看，12月25日，湖南裕能与万润新能先后发布公告，宣布将对部分产线进行为期约一个月的减产检修，预计减少产量分别为1.5-3.5 万吨、0.5-2万吨。 市场认为，业绩表现与市场景气"脱轨"有多个原因。一是2020年开始的扩产潮，启动了铁锂产能过剩的情绪，导致磷酸铁锂材料提不起价； 二是市场竞争升级的情况下，部分企业低价抢市场，议价权移位，电池厂成为主导。 12月26日，德方纳米和安达科技再发年度检修计划，德方纳米未公布具体减产数量，安达科技预计减产0.3-0.5万吨。 三是原材料价格回升的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the continuation of electric vehicle (EV) subsidies in 2026, which is expected to enhance the penetration rate of EVs and boost sales, particularly for mid to high-priced models [2]. - The implementation of a large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement policy reflects the government's commitment to supporting the consumption of new energy vehicles [2]. - The report anticipates a strong demand for lithium batteries in 2026, driven by the sustained growth in electric vehicle sales and the continuation of the old-for-new policy [2]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The 2026 policy includes subsidies for scrapping and replacing old vehicles, with personal consumers receiving up to 20,000 yuan for qualifying new energy vehicles [2]. - The policy aims to support the transition to low-emission vehicles, including electric trucks and city buses, thereby alleviating concerns about subsidy reductions for electric heavy trucks [2]. Market Performance - In 2025, the old-for-new policy significantly boosted the sales of new energy vehicles, with production and sales reaching 14.91 million and 14.78 million units respectively, marking a year-on-year growth of 31.4% and 31.2% [2]. - The report notes that the domestic power battery sales reached 1,044.3 GWh in 2025, reflecting a 50.3% year-on-year increase, indicating a robust market for battery manufacturers [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading battery companies such as CATL, Zhongxin Innovation, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, as well as material suppliers like Hunan Youneng and Tianwei Technology, due to their strong market positions and growth potential [2]. - The anticipated increase in electric vehicle penetration and battery demand presents a favorable investment landscape for stakeholders in the new energy sector [2].

Group 1 - Several lithium iron phosphate companies, including Hunan Youneng, Wanrun New Energy, Defang Nano, and Anda Technology, have announced production line maintenance, with a reduction scale expected between 0.3 to 3.5 million tons, and maintenance duration of about one month [1] - Lithium carbonate prices continue to rise, reaching 111,900 yuan per ton this weekend, an increase of 17,400 yuan per ton compared to two weeks ago [1] - Prices for ternary cathodes, lithium iron phosphate cathodes, and wet separators have also increased, along with a rise in battery cell prices [1] Group 2 - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating, with XINWANDA Power signing a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Zhongwei Co., and QuantumScape signing a joint development agreement with a top ten global automaker [1] - Major contracts in the lithium battery supply chain are increasing, with CATL signing a ten-year deep cooperation agreement with Lantu and a three-year 50GWh energy storage cooperation memorandum with Siyuan Electric [1] - European new energy vehicle sales have shown strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 41% in November across nine European countries, achieving a penetration rate of 34.6%, while domestic new energy vehicle sales increased by 21% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 53.2% [1] Group 3 - The ChiNext New Energy ETF Guotai (159387) tracks the Innovation Energy Index (399266), which has a daily price fluctuation limit of 20%, selecting innovative enterprises in renewable energy, clean energy technology, and equipment manufacturing to reflect the overall performance of companies with technological advantages and sustainable development potential in the new energy sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing significant growth in production and demand, with notable increases in both battery and phosphoric iron lithium cathode material output in November 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [1][2]. Production - In November 2025, domestic battery production reached 176.3 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 49.66% and a month-on-month increase of 3.34% [1][2]. - The production of phosphoric iron lithium cathode materials in November 2025 was 26.89 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.43% and a month-on-month growth of 0.75%, with a capacity utilization rate of 62.53% [1][2]. Pricing - As of December 26, 2025, the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose to 116,000 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 14.85% [3]. - The price of phosphoric iron lithium (power type) reached 45,100 yuan per ton on December 26, up over 15% from December 19 [3]. - Prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate remained stable at 180,000 yuan per ton as of December 27 [3]. - The average price of square phosphoric iron lithium energy storage batteries remained stable, with slight increases in specific models [3]. Demand - In November 2025, the monthly loading volume of phosphoric iron lithium batteries was 75.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 43.62% and a month-on-month increase of 11.56%, achieving a new high for the year [4]. - The monthly loading volume of ternary power batteries was 18.2 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.82% and a month-on-month increase of 10.30% [4]. - The new bidding capacity for domestic new energy storage projects in January to October 2025 was higher than in the same period of 2024, with November slightly lower [4]. - In November 2025, China's battery exports reached 21.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 69.60% and a month-on-month increase of 9.28% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The production of domestic batteries and phosphoric iron lithium cathode materials in January to November 2025 exceeded that of 2024, with stable raw material and cell prices, and an increase in monthly loading volumes and new energy storage bidding capacities [5]. - The industry is advised to focus on core enterprises in battery cells that lead in the collaborative layout of power batteries and energy storage, as well as those related to lithium battery materials [5]. - Recommended companies include CATL (300750), EVE Energy (300014), Xinwangda (300207), Hunan Youneng (301358), Rongbai Technology (688005), Tianci Materials (002709), and Dofluor (002407) [5].

碳酸锂期货日报 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 31 日 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 每日报告 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货探底回升，总持仓增 212，贵金属大跌令期货早盘低开，但现货报价 相对坚挺令期货止跌，钢联早盘优质电碳报价 117000，晚盘报价 117250，下调 2050，现货再度对盘面贴水。澳矿降 15 至 1550，锂云母持平 3400，三元涨 100-150， 铁锂持平，电解液持平。12 月 25 日至 29 日 ...

Group 1 - Lithium mining sector shows strong performance with companies like Guocheng Mining up over 7% and Shengxin Lithium Energy up over 6% [1][2] - Several companies including Longpan Technology and Hunan Youneng have announced production cuts, with reductions expected to impact output by 3,000 to 35,000 tons [3] - Tianqi Lithium announced a change in its spot trading settlement price, now referencing Mysteel battery-grade lithium salt prices or the main contract price of lithium carbonate futures [3] Group 2 - The lithium mining industry is expected to benefit from rising lithium salt prices and increased demand from energy storage and new energy vehicles, leading to improved profitability [4] - The positive outlook for lithium battery cathode materials is driven by reduced supply from phosphate lithium manufacturers and growing demand from downstream sectors [4] - The energy storage battery sector is anticipated to see performance growth as lithium prices stabilize and demand for storage projects accelerates [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133), which saw a turnover of 4.42% and a transaction volume of 26.6075 million yuan, with the underlying index rising by 1.84% to reach a new annual high [1][3] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF has achieved a record high in size at 629 million yuan and a record high in shares at 567 million, with a net inflow of 21.9844 million yuan recently [3] - The chemical sector is characterized by its complexity and rapid rotation, with the Tianhong Chemical ETF tracking 50 leading companies, covering both traditional cyclical sectors and emerging growth areas [3] Group 2 - Recent news indicates that major companies in the lithium iron phosphate industry, including Wanrun New Energy and Hunan Youneng, have announced maintenance and production cuts, with reductions of 35% to 50% planned for January 2026 [3][4] - Research institutions suggest that the collective maintenance in the lithium iron phosphate industry is a response to rising raw material costs, leading to increased operational pressure on companies [4] - The lithium battery supply chain is experiencing a rise in both volume and price, with significant increases in production and prices for lithium carbonate and lithium iron phosphate, indicating a recovery in downstream demand [5]

Group 1 - The Central Rural Work Conference was held in Beijing, focusing on the "three rural issues" and outlining the work plan for 2026 [1] - The 2026 "Two New" policy has been announced, expanding the scope of subsidies for digital and smart products [2][18] - The copper market has seen a significant price increase, with LME three-month copper rising over 40%, indicating strong market performance [3][19] Group 2 - The 2026 "Two New" policy includes updates on support areas and subsidy standards, with an initial allocation of 625 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement [10][25] - The personal housing sales tax rate has been reduced from 5% to 3% for properties sold within two years, effective January 1, 2026 [5][21][26] - The new VAT implementation regulations will take effect on January 1, 2026, aiming to enhance tax incentives [9][24] Group 3 - The stock market has seen over 2,800 A-share companies receiving broker research attention, with machinery, electronics, and biomedicine being the most favored sectors [4][20] - Huawei's chairman announced a strategic focus on seven business directions for 2026, emphasizing the development of the Harmony ecosystem [14][29] - The new display technology industry is projected to reach an output value of 800 billion yuan, capturing nearly 54% of the global market [8][23]