以下文章来源于普睿地产研究 ，作者普睿数智研究中心 普睿地产研究 . 涵盖市场、企业等八大研究方向，专注房地产市场发展、房企运营、产品力及多元化与代建课题探究。常规研究成果按日度、周度、月度定期发布，每年 亦推出上百篇重磅专题，为行业提供专业决策参考。 导 读 头部企业强者恒强，投资集中度超七成，其中央企投资保持领先，民企信心随市场筑底不断 修复。 ☉ 文／ 克而瑞深度咨询·普睿数智研究中心 | 4 | 绿城中国 | 1300.0 | | --- | --- | --- | | 5 | 束润置部 | 1243.2 | | 6 | 中国金茂 | 953.8 | | 7 | 越秀地产 | 855.4 | | 8 | 建发房产 | 854.6 | | 9 | 中旅投资 | 703.21 | | 10 | 滨江集团 | 667.8 | | 11 | 中建智地 | 411.7 | | 12 | 保利置业 | 350.4 | | 13 | 武汉城建 | 330.0 | | 14 | 象屿地产 | 295.9 | | 15 | 邦泰集团 | 293.2 | | 16 | 国贸地产 | 269.4 | | 17 | 联发集团 ...

2026.01. 01 本文字数：3537，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 孙梦凡 自2021年下半年以来，房地产本轮调整已有四年有余。刚刚过去的2025年，是行业迈入企稳修复的 关键一年，也是政策从"托底纾困"转向全面提振信心、激活住房需求的一年。 这一年，行业多项关键数据，显示房地产"止跌回稳"出现一定成效。机构数据显示，2025年商品房 成交规模降幅较上年收窄，预计全年销售面积约8.9亿平方米、销售金额8.4万亿元，其中四季度百城 新房成交面积环比增长4%、12月环比增长18%。 2025年，房地产行业的政策主基调是清理限制性措施、促进住房需求释放。 根据中指研究院监测，截至12月1日，全国有超210省市（县）出台政策约560条，政策优化频次较 2024年有所下降，主要围绕激活需求、优化供给两方面落地具体举措。 楼市情绪的真实"温度计"——二手房交易市场，今年则真正进入"市场化深水区"，新房市场与二手房 形成泾渭分明的运行体系，价格、客户等特征均大幅分化。受挂牌量高企等因素影响，存量房价格持 续下调，刚需房源成为交易主力，并带动成交量提升。 "在一系列政策干预下，2025年住宅市场暂时遏制了螺旋 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry has shown signs of stabilization and recovery in 2025 after a prolonged adjustment period since the second half of 2021, with policies shifting from "support and relief" to boosting confidence and activating housing demand [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing is expected to be approximately 890 million square meters, with a sales amount of 8.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a narrowing decline compared to the previous year [1] - The fourth quarter saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% in new housing transaction area across 100 cities, with December experiencing a significant 18% increase [1][5] - The second-hand housing market has become a major battleground, with a total transaction area of approximately 214 million square meters in 30 key cities, surpassing new housing transactions by 1.85 times, marking a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2% [7] Group 2: Policy Changes - The main policy direction in 2025 focused on clearing restrictive measures and promoting housing demand, with over 560 policy measures introduced across more than 210 provinces and cities [2] - Key measures included optimizing public housing fund loans, increasing home purchase subsidies, and reducing housing transaction taxes to lower costs and stimulate demand [2] - Beijing's new policies further relaxed restrictions on home purchases and loans, setting a precedent for other cities to follow suit in removing unreasonable limitations [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The new housing market has seen a significant decline in overall transaction volume, dropping nearly 50% from the peak in 2021, with only ten companies achieving sales exceeding 100 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [6] - The demand for larger homes has increased, with over 30% of new home transactions in 2025 being for units larger than 120 square meters [5] - The second-hand housing market has shown a clear recovery trend, with major cities like Beijing and Shanghai seeing significant increases in high-value transactions [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to enter a phase of "weak recovery, gradual balance, and deep differentiation" in 2026, with ongoing efforts to address structural inventory issues and stabilize market confidence [12] - The government is likely to continue implementing targeted policies to stimulate demand, particularly in areas such as urban village renovations and support for low-income homebuyers [11] - The overall housing demand in urban areas is projected to be around 4.98 billion square meters during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating potential for future growth in the real estate sector [11]

Core Insights - Binjiang Group has successfully acquired the land use rights for the state-owned construction land in Huzhou, marking a significant step in its strategic layout in the Yangtze River Delta region, enhancing its core competitiveness and showcasing its resource integration capabilities [1][2] Group 1: Land Acquisition Details - The acquired land covers an area of 44,426 square meters with a plot ratio of 1.8, and the total land price is 534 million yuan, granting the company 100% land rights [1] - The land is located in the core development area of Huzhou, with excellent location advantages and mature surrounding resources, indicating high development value and market potential [1][2] - The competitive bidding process involved 42 rounds, reflecting the company's precise judgment on quality core assets and its determination to secure strategic land [1] Group 2: Regional Market Dynamics - Huzhou, as a key city in the Yangtze River Delta integration strategy, offers favorable location conditions, solid industrial foundations, and vast market space, making it a hotspot for real estate companies [2] - The Wu Xing District, part of Huzhou, has been recognized as a core engine for regional development, further enhancing the investment value and market attractiveness of the area [2] Group 3: Company Performance and Strategy - In 2025, Binjiang Group achieved a total sales revenue of 94.53 billion yuan, demonstrating strong market recognition and sales capabilities [3] - The company ranked first in the Hangzhou land auction market with a total land acquisition amount exceeding 47 billion yuan, securing 23 land and cooperation projects, which solidifies its benchmark position in the core market [3] - The company adheres to a "quality-oriented" principle in its land reserve strategy, focusing on high-potential projects and partnerships to ensure high-quality project execution and returns [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - With the delivery of low-margin projects, the company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profit levels, supported by a robust sales performance and an improving debt structure [4] - Forecasts indicate that Binjiang Group's revenue will reach 75.17 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, and a net profit of 3.07 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.58% increase [4] - The favorable policy environment for high-quality development in the real estate sector positions the company to capitalize on industry transformation benefits, enhancing its core competitiveness and market influence [4]

Group 1 - The A-share real estate sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, with leading companies driving market attention and creating a collaborative growth pattern among various players [1] - Key companies such as Chengjian Development and Hefei Urban Construction have shown strong performance, contributing to the overall market momentum [1] - The trading volume in the sector has notably increased, indicating a clear influx of capital and reflecting market confidence in the resolution of real estate risks and the release of policy benefits [1] Group 2 - In 2025, 21 distressed real estate companies have completed or received approval for debt restructuring, with a total debt reduction scale of 1.2 trillion yuan [2] - Notable cases include Sunac China, which successfully restructured approximately 96 billion USD in offshore debt, and Country Garden's 177 billion USD debt restructuring plan approved by the court [2] - The national housing and urban-rural construction work conference confirmed that the task of ensuring housing delivery has been fully completed, restoring buyer confidence [2] Group 3 - The financing environment for the real estate industry is improving, with bond financing totaling 62.04 billion yuan in November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.5% [3] - The total bond financing for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 550.28 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.5% year-on-year growth [3] - Leading real estate companies are gradually breaking through in overseas bond issuance, maintaining low financing costs [3] Group 4 - High-quality real estate development is expected to benefit directly from policy optimization, improved financing, and debt reduction efforts, particularly for companies in high-tier cities [4] - Real estate services are poised to gain from the recovery of industry confidence and the increasing share of second-hand housing transactions [4] - Urban renewal is accelerating, driving demand growth in related industries, with significant increases in special bonds for urban village renovations [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [7]. Core Insights - The new housing value-added tax policy, effective from January 1, 2026, aims to lower transaction costs by reducing the tax rate from 5% to 3% for properties held for less than two years, which is expected to enhance the efficiency of second-hand housing transactions and stabilize the real estate market [1][2][3]. - The policy reflects the central government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market and is anticipated to create opportunities for capable real estate companies by improving the demand-side replacement chain and optimizing supply-side quality [1][4]. Summary by Sections Tax Rate and Policy Adjustments - The new policy significantly reduces the short-term holding tax rate from 5% to 3%, representing a 40% decrease in transaction costs. For a property priced at 1 million (excluding tax), the tax burden decreases from 53,000 to 31,000 [2]. - The policy eliminates regional differences in tax exemptions, standardizing the exemption period to two years nationwide [2]. Market Dynamics and Demand - The adjustment primarily targets properties held for less than two years, which currently have low transaction willingness due to self-use demand. However, the policy is seen as a signal to stabilize demand and relax restrictions on short-term transactions [3]. - The report notes a shift in the market from new housing to second-hand housing, with a 5% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions, while new housing transactions have decreased by 4% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several real estate companies based on their creditworthiness, product quality, and operational capabilities. Key recommendations include: - Companies with strong credit and product quality such as China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Longfor Group [5][9]. - Companies with robust cash flow management during market adjustments like New City Holdings and Longfor Group [5]. - Local Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market recovery, such as Sun Hung Kai Properties and Link REIT [5]. - Property management companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages like Greentown Service and China Resources Vientiane Life [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recent policy change where the value-added tax (VAT) rate for housing sold within two years has been reduced from 5% to 3%, effective January 1, 2026. This aims to lower transaction costs and stimulate the second-hand housing market [5][6] - The report notes a significant decline in second-hand housing transaction volumes in major cities during the fourth quarter of 2025, with year-on-year decreases of 24.9% in Beijing, 19.4% in Shanghai, and 30.8% in Shenzhen for October-November [7][11][14] - The adjustment in VAT is expected to stabilize market expectations and promote overall recovery in the real estate sector, with specific recommendations for companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these changes [8] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The VAT rate for housing sold within two years is reduced to 3%, while sales of properties held for two years or more remain exempt from VAT. This change is projected to save approximately 9.25 million yuan in VAT for a property priced at 5 million yuan [5][6] Market Trends - The report indicates a notable drop in second-hand housing transactions in major cities, with cumulative year-on-year increases of 11.0%, 18.5%, and 28.7% for the first nine months of 2025, followed by significant declines in October and November [7][11][14] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and the ability to cater to improving customer demands, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Land & Investment, and China Resources Land. It also suggests companies that benefit from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, as well as high-quality property management firms [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The recent policy change on the value-added tax (VAT) for personal housing sales, reducing the rate from 5% to 3% for properties sold within two years, aims to lower seller transaction costs and help restore the transaction chain [2][4]. - The real estate industry has undergone significant adjustments since 2021, with front-end indicators (sales, land acquisition, and construction) declining by 50-70%, and back-end indicators (completion and investment) dropping by 30-40% [4]. - The cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices from July 2021 to September 2025 is 37%, surpassing the average decline of 34% across 42 countries [4]. - The report emphasizes the need for policies to support demand-side recovery to stabilize the market, particularly in core cities [4]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The new VAT policy effective from January 1, 2026, will exempt individuals from paying VAT on properties sold after two years of purchase, while those selling within two years will pay a reduced rate of 3% [5]. Market Analysis - The report highlights the critical need for repairing household balance sheets to address the ongoing challenges in the real estate market, with expectations for further supportive policies to stabilize the market [4]. - Anticipated policy measures include reductions in mortgage rates, optimization of purchase restrictions and taxes in first-tier cities, accelerated land acquisition, and support for real estate financing [4]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies two key investment opportunities: the revaluation of quality commercial real estate and the emergence of strong product capabilities in core cities [4]. - Recommended companies for investment include: 1. Commercial real estate: China Resources Land, New World Development, Kerry Properties, Hang Lung Properties, Longfor Group, with a focus on Swire Properties and New World Development. 2. Quality housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, and China Jinmao. 3. Undervalued recovery companies: Jianfa Shares, China Merchants Shekou, Yuexiu Property, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments. 4. Property management: China Resources Vientiane, Greentown Services, China Merchants Jinling, Poly Property, and China Overseas Property. 5. Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W [4].

Group 1: China Ping An (601318) - The insurance sector is expected to undergo a value reassessment, with China Ping An demonstrating significant advantages in managing liability costs and outperforming peers in interest spread performance. The stabilization of long-term interest rates and the ongoing entry of insurance funds into the market indicate a clear trend of asset improvement, suggesting that the insurance sector will benefit from this reassessment [3][13]. - Investment analysis suggests an upward revision of profit forecasts, maintaining a "buy" rating. The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 146.8 billion, 161.2 billion, and 188 billion RMB, respectively, with a target price of 93.8 RMB per share, corresponding to a P/EV of 0.99x for 2026 [3][13]. - The company has a high dividend yield, with a focus on shareholder returns, and is expected to see a recovery in OPAT growth in 2026. The public fund's holding in China Ping An is below the weight of the CSI 300, indicating potential for increased capital inflow [3][13]. Group 2: 37 Interactive Entertainment (002555) - The company has demonstrated strong operational capabilities through strategic transformations over the years, maintaining a stable management team and timely adjustments to its systems. The gaming pipeline is expected to validate its product offerings in 2025 [12][15]. - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 16.2 billion, 18.6 billion, and 20.9 billion RMB, with net profit estimates of 3.22 billion, 3.54 billion, and 3.81 billion RMB, respectively. The current price corresponds to a PE of 15/14x for 2026-2027 [12][15]. - The company is actively integrating AI into its production and content innovation, with a focus on expanding its product pipeline in the gaming sector, particularly in the SLG and casual gaming markets [12][15]. Group 3: Baidu Group (09888) - Baidu is advancing its AI stack, with significant growth in its intelligent cloud business. The company has released new AI chips and models, positioning itself as a leader in the AI large model solution market [14][15]. - Revenue projections for Baidu from 2025 to 2027 are set at 128.5 billion, 133.1 billion, and 141 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of -3%, 4%, and 6%. The target valuation for the group is 430.2 billion RMB, with a target price of 172.54 HKD per share [14][15]. - The company is also seeing substantial growth in its autonomous driving segment, with a significant increase in order volume and profitability, indicating a strong market position in the next-generation mobility space [14][15]. Group 4: Real Estate Industry - The real estate sector has experienced significant adjustments, with a focus on repairing household balance sheets as a key to recovery. The government is expected to introduce further supportive policies to stabilize the market [18][22]. - The recent reduction in the value-added tax for housing sales is aimed at lowering transaction costs for sellers, which may help restore the transaction chain, although the overall impact on demand remains limited [18][20]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on commercial real estate and high-quality housing companies, with expectations of value reassessment in the sector as supportive policies are anticipated [18][22]. Group 5: Electric Vehicle Industry - The continuation of subsidies for electric vehicles in 2026 is expected to enhance the penetration rate of electric vehicles, with specific measures aimed at promoting the replacement of old vehicles and supporting the electrification of public transport [24][25]. - The policy changes reflect a commitment to boosting consumer demand for electric vehicles, with expectations of strong sales growth in the coming year [24][25]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in battery manufacturers and material suppliers, with a focus on the long-term growth potential of the electric vehicle market [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "good houses" has emerged as a key term in Hangzhou's real estate market by 2025, driven by the cancellation of price limits, new quality regulations, and increased market competition, which has activated demand for self-use and improvement [6]. Group 1: Quality Standards and Regulations - The term "good houses" was first included in the government work report in March 2025, leading to public attention and the issuance of new quality improvement guidelines for residential properties in Hangzhou [7]. - New standards for residential quality have been established, including minimum floor heights of 3 meters, with some projects exceeding 3.5 meters, significantly enhancing living conditions [7][8]. - The thickness of partition walls has been increased to a minimum of 240 mm, and floor slabs to 120 mm, aimed at improving sound insulation and addressing long-standing noise issues [8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics Post-Price Limit Cancellation - The cancellation of price limits has allowed developers to regain pricing power, leading to a focus on quality to achieve higher premiums, thus enhancing the overall product offerings in the market [9]. - New luxury projects have emerged, such as the first unlimited-price project in the Hangzhou Olympic Sports Center area, featuring high-end amenities and luxurious materials, with prices reaching approximately 87,000 yuan per square meter [9][10]. - The introduction of innovative designs, such as elevated ground levels and enhanced soundproofing systems, has become a trend among new developments, improving the overall living experience [10]. Group 3: Impact on Affordable Housing - The quality of affordable housing has significantly improved compared to previous years, with new projects offering luxurious amenities at lower prices than during the price limit era [11]. - Developments like Yuhang District's first unlimited-price project have introduced high-quality features typically found in luxury homes, enhancing the appeal of affordable options [11][12]. - The competitive market environment has led to decreased prices and improved product quality for first-time homebuyers, resulting in a greater sense of value and satisfaction [12].