Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 11.34 [7][8]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 7.13% year-on-year in 2024, with total revenue of RMB 8.566 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.14 billion, down 43.08% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant revenue drop of 32% year-on-year, resulting in a net loss of RMB 0.02 billion [1][2][3]. - Despite the current challenges, the company is expected to benefit from a rebound in domestic corn prices due to supply-demand imbalances and its strong research and development capabilities, particularly in transgenic corn [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 50 billion from corn seeds, down 17% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 34.6%, a decrease of 5.4 percentage points. In contrast, hybrid rice revenue was RMB 20 billion, up 13% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 37.6%, an increase of 1.23 percentage points [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of RMB 14.1 billion, a 32% decline year-on-year, and a net profit of -RMB 0.02 billion, indicating a shift to loss compared to the previous year [1][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted downwards due to intense competition in corn seed varieties. The expected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are RMB 2.1 billion and RMB 4.3 billion, respectively, down from previous estimates of RMB 9.0 billion and RMB 12.0 billion [4][6]. - The report estimates a target price of RMB 11.34 based on a price-to-book ratio of 3.0 times for 2025, reflecting the company's strong R&D advantages and market position [4][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the Sino - US tariff game, China has implemented tariff counter - measures, which highlights the importance of food security. The self - controllability of seed sources has become crucial, and the seed industry may receive strong policy support [1][2]. - The Chinese government has issued a plan to accelerate the construction of an agricultural powerhouse, with clear goals for different time points to ensure food supply and promote rural development [3][33]. - The Guozheng Grain Industry Index has investment value. It is more focused on the seed and grain planting fields after revision, with reasonable valuation and better performance than some major indices [4]. - The Penghua Guozheng Grain ETF and its linked funds are good investment vehicles for tracking the Guozheng Grain Industry Index [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Tariff Game Background and New Opportunities for the Grain Industry 3.1.1 China's Tariff Counter - measures in Response to Sino - US Tariff Shocks - On April 2, 2025 (Eastern Time), the US government announced a "reciprocal tariff" policy. China issued a statement on April 5, strongly condemning and opposing it. On April 4, China announced a 34% tariff increase on US - originated goods and took other counter - measures [1][10][11]. 3.1.2 The Significance of Food Security under Tariff Counter - measures - China is a major food importer, and the US is an important source of its agricultural imports. In 2024, China imported 3179 tons of grain from the US, accounting for 20.2% of its total imports, a 1.3 - percentage - point decrease from 2023. The import cost of agricultural products will rise, and domestic seed industry upgrading is expected [2][11][13]. - As of April 11, 2025, there were significant price fluctuations in bulk agricultural products [17]. 3.1.3 Government Support for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Powerhouse - The Chinese government issued the "Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Powerhouse (2024 - 2035)", with clear goals for 2027, 2035, and the middle of this century, and detailed plans for ensuring food security [3][31][33]. 3.2 Investment Value Analysis of the Guozheng Grain Industry Index 3.2.1 Introduction - The Guozheng Grain Industry Index aims to reflect the stock price changes of grain - related listed companies. After revision, it focuses more on the seed and grain planting fields, with semi - annual sample adjustments [36]. 3.2.2 Market Value Distribution and Liquidity - As of April 15, 2025, the index has a diversified market - value distribution. In terms of liquidity, 78.36% of the component stocks' weights are in the top three groups of the past - year average daily trading volume [39][40][42]. 3.2.3 Industry Distribution - As of April 15, 2025, the index is highly concentrated in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and basic chemical industries at the Shenwan primary level, and mainly in the seed, livestock and poultry feed, and grain planting industries at the Shenwan tertiary level [44]. 3.2.4 Top Ten Weighted Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks of the index have a total weight of 52.74%, with a moderate concentration. They are mainly in the core sectors of the grain industry, and have a good profitability level [47]. 3.2.5 Reasonable Valuation - As of April 15, 2025, the index's P/E ratio is 24.17 times and the P/B ratio is 2.02 times, both at relatively low historical levels. The valuation center may rise as the grain industry opportunities approach [49]. 3.2.6 Performance - From November 4, 2009, to April 15, 2025, the total return of the index is 151.08%, with an annualized return of 6.33%. Its performance is better than that of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [51]. 3.3 Fund Products - The Penghua Guozheng Grain Industry ETF, listed on August 18, 2023, is the largest and most liquid ETF product tracking the Guozheng Grain Industry Index. It has three linked funds [5][57].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Denghai Seed Industry (002041) reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The company's operating revenue for Q1 2025 was 163 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30.04% [1] - The net profit for the same period was 24.5977 million yuan, which is a year-on-year decline of 18.37% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, China's genetically modified (GM) corn industry has reached a crucial development stage. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' public announcement of 99 GM corn and soybean varieties on April 8 demonstrates China's determination to promote GM technology, responding to the call of the Central No. 1 Document to "develop new - quality productivity in agriculture." GM corn, as a pilot crop, is expected to be more widely promoted [1][3]. - With the increase in the planting area of GM corn year - by - year and the subsequent growth of penetration rate, China's domestic corn yield per unit is expected to increase, and the supply - demand structure will be further improved [3]. - In the future, with increased policy support and technological maturity, the commercialization of GM corn, soybeans and other crops is expected to make further breakthroughs, becoming an important means to ensure food security and agricultural modernization [11]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transgenic Introduction and Global Development Situation 3.1.1 Basic Introduction of GM Corn - GM corn is created by using genetic engineering to introduce foreign genes into the corn genome, endowing it with new genetic traits such as insect resistance, herbicide tolerance, stress tolerance, and improved nutritional value. Global large - scale commercial GM crops are mainly concentrated in the first - generation products, with herbicide - tolerance (HT) and insect - resistance (Bt) being the main target traits, and most GM corn has both traits [4]. - Different target genes in GM corn have different action mechanisms. For example, the Bt gene makes corn produce insecticidal proteins to kill pests, and the epsps gene makes corn tolerate glyphosate herbicides [5]. 3.1.2 Global GM Crop Situation - Since 1996, the global commercial planting area of GM crops has been increasing steadily. By 2024, it had reached 210 million hectares. Currently, more than 30 countries allow the commercial planting of GM crops [5]. - Globally, the main GM crops are soybeans, corn, cotton, rapeseed, and sugar beets. In terms of planting area, soybeans rank first, followed by corn. In terms of the proportion of GM crops, cotton has the highest GM coverage rate [6][7]. - The countries with the largest GM crop planting areas are the United States, Brazil, Argentina, India, and Canada, accounting for over 90% of the global total. In the United States, the proportion of GM corn with stacked traits has been increasing, and by 2024, it accounted for 83%. The penetration rate of GM corn in the United States reached 94% in 2024 [7]. 3.2 Policy Driven 3.2.1 Development Process - China's development of GM crops follows the path of "non - edible → indirectly edible → edible." The development of GM technology in China started in 1986 and has gone through several stages, and in the future, the commercialization of GM crops is expected to make further breakthroughs [10][11]. 3.2.2 Approval Process and Current Achievements - The commercial planting of domestic GM crops follows a strict approval process, including three - scale tests, application for a safety certificate, and variety approval. As of December 31, 2024, there were 34 GM corn varieties in the valid period in China. If the varieties in the third - batch list pass the approval, China will have a cumulative total of 161 GM corn varieties and 19 GM soybean varieties approved [13][14][15]. 3.3 Impact of GM Technology on Yield per Unit - According to US experience, the yield per unit of Bt insect - resistant corn has increased significantly compared to traditional varieties. In China, the average yield of corn has been increasing, and the large - scale application of GM corn will further increase the yield potential [17][18]. - GM corn technology has great application potential in insect resistance and herbicide tolerance. It can reduce the cost of pest control by 30% - 50%, increase yield by 8% - 12%, and has a control success rate of over 90% against pests such as fall armyworms. The herbicide - tolerance effect can reach over 95%. The average yield increase of GM corn is about 8.9% [18]. - Different companies' GM corn varieties have different yield - increasing effects. For example, Dabeinong's GM corn varieties in the Yellow - Huai region and Northeast China have an average yield increase of about 10% compared to conventional varieties [19]. 3.4 Seed Pricing and Impact on Corn Planting Costs - The profitability of using GM seeds for individual farmers depends on yield loss reduction and relevant pesticide and seed costs. If the benefits from yield loss reduction plus the reduction in pesticide expenditure are greater than the premium of GM seeds, it is profitable to use GM seeds [19]. - GM crop seeds have a premium compared to conventional seeds. Assuming a 40% premium rate for domestic GM corn seeds, GM corn can significantly reduce pesticide use. A rough cost calculation for Jilin Province shows that the production cost per mu of corn wet grain can be reduced by about 7% [20]. 3.5 Estimation of GM Corn Promotion Area - From 2021 to 2024, the pilot planting area of GM corn in China has gradually expanded. According to reports, in 2025, the planting area of GM corn in China is expected to reach 45 - 50 million mu, and the number of permitted planting provinces will increase from 8 to 13. The estimated penetration rate in 2025 is about 6% - 7.7%, reaching 20% in 2026, increasing by 30% - 40% annually from 2027 - 2028, and approaching the international mature level in 2029 [24][25].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in the pig farming sector, with a notable increase in slaughter volume and consumer demand. The average price of pigs is showing a slight upward trend, indicating potential profitability for producers [2][12] - The agricultural sector is benefiting from supportive financial policies aimed at revitalizing the seed industry, with a focus on enhancing productivity through biotechnology and improved financial services [1][11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has introduced new financial support measures for the seed industry, including a total of 150 billion yuan in loans and funds since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][11] - The commercialization of genetically modified crops is expected to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency in key varieties [1][11] 2. Market Review - The agricultural sector index decreased by 0.16% during the week, while the overall market indices showed positive growth [14] - The top-performing sub-sectors included animal health and feed, indicating a shift in investor interest towards these areas [14][18] 3. Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - The average price of corn is 2278.78 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.47% [24] - The average price of pigs is reported at 14.98 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.44% [12][61] - The average price of soybeans is 3887.37 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.16% [38] 4. Profitability Forecasts and Valuations - Specific companies in the pig farming sector, such as 京基智农, 牧原股份, and 温氏股份, are recommended for their potential profitability due to improved cost management and higher output flexibility [2][12] - In the seed industry, companies like 隆平高科 and 登海种业 are highlighted for their competitive advantages and expected benefits from the supportive policies [1][11]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 28 日 猪肉3 月能繁去化，屠宰量同环比均大增 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 15 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 种植产业链：4 月 22 日，农业农村部种业管理司、计划财务司 联合中国农业银行三农对公业务部，通过线上直播方式介绍中 国农业银行支持种业振兴的最新政策与服务举措、融资租赁产 品、投资金融服务模式等内容。国家农作物、畜禽、水产种业 阵型企业、各省优势种业企业和各级种业管理部门、农业银行 系统相关单位线上参加推介会。为落实全国种业企业座谈会有 关部署要求，今年以来农业农村部种业管理司、计划财务司探 索开通"金融惠种直播间"，搭建常态化政银企对接平台，把 重点金融机构最新政策信息第一时间送达种业企业，推动惠企 政策落实落地。此次直播是"金融惠种直播间"第二期，邀请 中国农业银行及子公司通过"政策解读+案例分享"的形式详 细介绍了支持政策措施。截至目前，中国农业银行已出台《支 持种业振兴行动金融服务方案》《支持种业振兴信贷政策》和 《农作物种业行业信贷政策》，启动实施种业振兴服务提升行 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][69] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the pig price has been fluctuating, with the average price on April 24 being 14.92 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.01 yuan/kg week-on-week. The second batch of fattening pigs accounted for 9.73% of the total sales, an increase of 4.38 percentage points compared to the previous ten days [2][12][34] - In the poultry sector, the white chicken price has slightly adjusted downwards due to limited demand as the May Day stocking approaches its end. The average price for meat chickens was 7.47 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg week-on-week [3][36] - The seed industry is seeing enhanced regulatory activities focusing on intellectual property protection, which is expected to improve market order and support the supply of essential agricultural products [3][48] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The pig price has shown fluctuations, with a slight recovery in average weight. The average weight of pigs sold was 128.94 kg, up 0.37 kg week-on-week. The slaughter volume has slightly increased, with an average daily slaughter of 139,600 pigs, up 2.16% week-on-week [2][12][16][24] - The price difference between different weight categories of pigs is narrowing, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][24][34] Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is experiencing a slight price adjustment due to seasonal factors and limited demand. The average price for chicken chicks was 2.85 yuan/bird, down 0.12 yuan/bird week-on-week [3][36][40] - The egg price has continued to rise, with an average price of 7.25 yuan/kg, up 0.11 yuan/kg week-on-week [3][36] Seed Industry & Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture has initiated a regulatory campaign to enhance intellectual property protection in the seed industry, which is expected to support the supply of essential agricultural products [3][48] - The report notes a strong short-term trend in soybean meal prices, with the current price at 3,580.00 yuan/ton, up 78.00 yuan/ton week-on-week, driven by supply constraints [3][49]

裘翔 ｜ 中信证券首席A股策略师 S1010518080002 策略聚焦 ｜ 再次高低切换 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前，中美贸易谈判可能进展有限；国内的政策是托 底和应对式的，4月只是第一波以试验和预防为特征的政策；筹码出清相对彻底且对 业绩不敏感的主题阶段性占优；市场整体情绪位置不算低，科技板块相对医药和消费 更接近冰点，对风偏回升更敏感。配置上，5月关注新技术和产业题材轮动、海外科 技映射链修复以及服务业扩内需政策落地。 风险因素：中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策力度、实施效果或经济复 苏不及预期；海内外宏观流动性超预期收紧；俄乌、中东地区冲突进一步升级；我国 房地产库存消化不及预期；特朗普政策侧重点超预期。 杨帆｜中信证券 宏观与政策首席分析师 S1010515100001 中信证券｜强化底线思维，充分备足预案：政治局会议学习体会 2025年4月政治局会议指出，虽然一季度经济开局良好，但外部冲击影响加大，下行 风险显著上升；需要"强化底线思维"，对外部压力从最坏处准备，努力争取最好的结 果，因时而动用好政策工具箱，巩固经济与社会稳定。 风险因素：经济增速下行风险；政策力度或效果不及预期； ...

01 主题： 天赐材料交流 主讲： 郭彬 纺服首席分析师 参会密码： 278756 时间： 4月27日（周日）17：00 主讲： 刘强 院长助理&电新首席分析师 嘉宾：公司副总&董秘 韩总 参会密码： 101211 02 主 题： 嘉诚国际报告解读 时间： 4月28日（周一）14：00 主讲： 程志峰 交运分析师 参会密码： 376632 03 主 题： 内需美护板块推荐电话会议 时间： 4月28日（周一）20：00 04 主题： 专项债收购存量闲置土地发行落地提速 时间： 4月29日（周二）08：00 主讲： 徐超 院长助理&地产首席分析师 戴梓涵 固收分析师 参会密码： 572109 05 主题： 登海种业业绩交流 时间： 4月29日（周二）09：00 主讲： 程晓东 农业首席分析师 李忠华 农业分析师 嘉宾：公司副总裁&董秘 原总 参会密码：980505 06 主题： 社会服务：年报总结及近期观点汇报 时间： 4月29日（周二）19：00 主讲： 王湛 社服分析师 参会密码： 270322 07 主题： 察势者明，趋势者弱 时间： 4月29日（周二）21:00 主讲： 张冬冬 策略首席分析师 参会密码： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig farming sector currently has a large safety margin due to sufficient trading expectations, with potential pressure on pig output in the first half of 2025 [3][4] - The report highlights that the supply of breeding sows continues to decline, with the number of breeding sows at 40.39 million heads, down 1.0% quarter-on-quarter [2][13] - The report notes that the average price of live pigs has decreased to 15.2 yuan/kg in March, reflecting a 3.6% decline month-on-month, while the average price of piglets has increased by 2.8% month-on-month [18][34] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming Sector - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased to 128.94 kg, up 0.37 kg week-on-week, indicating a potential supply-demand balance [35] - The total number of pigs slaughtered in Q1 2025 was 19.476 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 0.11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.86% [14] - The average profit per pig has decreased to 84 yuan per head for large-scale farms and 54 yuan per head for smallholders, down from 131 yuan and 75 yuan respectively in February [18] 2. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pig farming companies with high output and cost recovery, specifically recommending Muyuan Foods and Shennong Group, while suggesting to pay attention to Wens Foodstuff Group and Juxing Agriculture [3] - For the post-cycle sector, the recovery in pig inventory is expected to boost demand for feed and veterinary products, with a recommendation to focus on Haida Group [3] - In the planting chain, the report suggests that the strong grain prices due to Sino-US tariff disputes present investment opportunities, recommending companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3] 3. Market Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 0.16% compared to a 0.56% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [26] - The report details that the animal health, feed, and agricultural product processing sectors saw varying performance, with animal health up 5.42% and poultry farming down 1.22% [26][29]