Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the supply tightness trend is the fundamental driver for copper price increases, with a positive outlook for the copper sector's mid-term investment value [2] - The Chilean Manto Verde copper-gold mine is facing strike risks, which may increase supply uncertainty in 2026 [1] - The supply-side constraints are expected to continue due to potential disruptions from strikes and other events, while downstream demand for copper is anticipated to grow due to upgrades in electrical grids in Europe and North America, as well as the global transition to clean energy [2] Group 2 - The ETF tracking the non-ferrous metals sector, specifically the CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index, has shown a 2.04% increase with a trading volume of 242 million yuan [1] - Key stocks in the index include Jiangxi Copper, which rose by 9.07%, and other companies like Guocheng Mining and Shengxin Lithium Energy, which also saw significant gains [1] - The index comprises 50 listed companies selected from the non-ferrous metals and non-metallic materials sectors to reflect the overall performance of the industry [2]

Market Performance - The London Stock Exchange's FTSE 100 index closed at 9940.71 points, up 74.18 points, representing a 0.75% increase from the previous trading day [1] - All major European stock indices experienced gains on the same day [1] Top Gainers - Fresnillo, a precious metals producer, saw its stock price increase by 6.83% [1] - Antofagasta, a mining company, experienced a stock price rise of 3.27% [1] - Africa Telecom, a telecommunications operator, had a stock price increase of 3.25% [1] - Glencore's stock price rose by 2.52% [1] - Anglo American's stock price increased by 2.38% [1] Top Losers - Metrel Energy and Metals saw a stock price decline of 0.67% [1] - Experian, a market credit service provider, experienced a decrease of 0.64% in its stock price [1] - Pansy Square Holdings' stock price fell by 0.58% [1] - Intertek Group, a security and quality inspection service provider, saw a decline of 0.56% [1] - DCC, a marketing and business services company, experienced a stock price drop of 0.38% [1] Other European Indices - The CAC 40 index in Paris closed at 8168.15 points, up 56.13 points, a 0.69% increase [1] - The DAX index in Frankfurt closed at 24490.41 points, up 139.29 points, representing a 0.57% increase [1]

Group 1 - European stock markets rebounded on Tuesday, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index rising 0.5% to surpass the 590-point mark, reaching a new all-time high [2] - The UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, and German DAX indices each increased by approximately 0.6%, while the Italian FTSE MIB index saw a gain of 1.2% [2] - Mining stocks led the blue-chip indices, with Fresnillo's stock price surging by 5%, and peers like Anglo American, Antofagasta, and Glencore rising between 2% and 2.5% [2] Group 2 - Precious metal futures prices rebounded on Tuesday morning, with gold prices increasing by 1.3% to $4,399.10 per ounce, and silver prices soaring by 6.9% to $75.32 per ounce [2] - Defense stocks experienced a rebound after a previous decline, with companies like Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin seeing stock price increases of about 2%, and year-to-date gains approaching 200% [2] - The performance of defense stocks was previously affected by ongoing peace negotiations between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky, leading to mixed results in major European indices on Monday [2] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific region, most stock markets declined overnight, influenced by concerns over an artificial intelligence bubble and a sell-off in technology stocks on Wall Street [3] - Notable declines were observed in major U.S. tech stocks, including Nvidia, which fell over 1%, and Palantir Technologies, Oracle, and metaverse platform companies also faced downward pressure [3] - European markets on Tuesday did not have any significant corporate earnings reports or economic data releases [3]

分析师称，受供应中断及人工智能领域巨额投资拉动，铜价的创纪录上涨行情将延续至 2026 年。 核心要点 铜需求向来被视作经济景气度的晴雨表。这一基础金属是能源转型体系的核心原料，更是电动汽车、电 网及风力发电机制造不可或缺的关键材料。 事实上，电气化进程、电网扩建与数据中心建设，均需要大量铜材用于线路铺设、电力传输及散热基础 设施搭建。 日本阿斯垂斯咨询公司大宗商品策略师伊恩・罗珀指出，全球人工智能需求爆发是铜价最新上涨动力， 而市场供应 "极度紧俏" 的格局，或推动这一红色金属 2026 年涨势进一步扩大。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜价格周二上涨 1.5%，报每吨 12405 美元，此前一交易日曾触及每 吨 12960 美元的历史峰值。日本阿斯垂斯咨询公司大宗商品策略师伊恩・罗珀向美国消费者新闻与商业 频道（CNBC）表示："铜早已是可再生能源、电动汽车产业扩张的最大受益者，如今，数据中心建设 更是铜需求的核心增长引擎。" 2025 年 8 月 12 日，加 拿大魁北克省蒙特利尔市，嘉能可加拿大铜精炼厂内，铜阳极板从熔炉中出炉。该精炼厂年产能达 32.5 万吨，成品以电解铜形式对外销售。 受供应中断 ...

Group 1: European Market Performance - The pan-European Stoxx 600 index increased by 0.4% to surpass 590 points, marking a new record [1] - European stocks gained momentum, particularly in a holiday-shortened trading week [1] - Mining stocks led the blue-chip index, with Fresnillo rising by 5.3%, while peers Anglo American, Antofagasta, and Glencore saw increases between 2.3% and 2% [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Market - Gold futures rose by 1.4%, trading at $4,403.10 per ounce, while silver surged by 5.6% to $74.42 per ounce [2] - Silver experienced volatility, reaching a record high before experiencing its worst day since 2021 [2] Group 3: Defense Sector Performance - Defense stocks rebounded by midday Tuesday, with Renk and Rheinmetall each rising about 2%, and year-to-date gains approaching 200% [3] - The sector faced initial losses due to peace talks between President Trump and President Zelenskyy, but showed recovery as discussions continued [3] Group 4: Asia-Pacific Market Trends - Asia-Pacific markets mostly declined following a tech sell-off on Wall Street, driven by concerns over an AI bubble [4] - Notable declines were observed in major tech stocks, including Nvidia, Palantir Technologies, Meta Platforms, and Oracle [4] - U.S. stocks were slightly lower in premarket trading, with minimal movements from big tech names [4]

Core Insights - Arif Kurniawan has rapidly ascended to become a key player in Indonesia's nickel market, controlling about one-third of the domestic nickel ore trade, which is valued at approximately $3 billion annually [1][3] - The Indonesian government has implemented policies to upgrade technology and regulate the mining industry, which has increased Arif's wealth but also introduced new uncertainties due to potential changes in mining regulations [2][6] Group 1: Market Position and Control - Arif and his main business partner Edi Liu Amas hold at least 20 mining licenses in Indonesia's primary nickel-producing regions, covering over 71,000 hectares, significantly larger than the Weda Bay Nickel mine [3] - Arif's trading volume accounted for about one-third of Indonesia's nickel market last year, with an estimated transaction volume of $3 billion based on production data and government benchmark prices [3] Group 2: Business Strategy and Growth - Arif's rise is attributed to his experience at Glencore and his ability to navigate Indonesia's changing industrial policies, particularly after the 2014 export ban on raw minerals [4] - He established PT Dua Delapan Resources in 2015 to act as an intermediary between Chinese smelting giants and small-scale miners, capitalizing on the market gap left by larger companies [4] Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Challenges - Since 2022, the nickel ore market in Indonesia has faced shortages due to government production quotas, shifting the power dynamics in the supply chain towards resource holders like Arif [5] - The new administration under President Prabowo Subianto is restructuring the mining industry, increasing fees and cracking down on illegal mining, which poses risks to Arif's operations and could affect his business empire [2][6]

分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 冠通期货-沪铜2026年报 --宏观基本面共振，铜市熊短牛长 核心观点 研究咨询部： 王 静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 报告时间： 2025年12月29日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 ➢ 宏观方面：海外方面，2025年特朗普再次任美国总统，自任职起全球贸易冲突开始，资金避险情绪高涨，有色金属、贵金属连续上涨，同时 对中国铜开启232关税调查且征收铜关税，吸引跨地区套利，导致全球铜供应结构失衡。美联储年内三次降息，美元连续下挫，支撑铜价上移， 明年预计美联储主席换届后依旧保持宽松预期。国内方面，年内反内卷举措加速供应侧产能优化升级，带动市场积极性，发改委指出铜冶炼 等强资源约束型产业要强化管理、优化布局，2026年正值"十五五" 规划的初期阶段，十五五规划将新能源产业列为战略性新兴支柱产业， 而铜作为新能源的工业血液，正在重塑全球经济版图。 ➢ 供给方面：年内多发铜矿事故扰动，加速铜供应 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, silver prices soared due to factors such as US tariffs, the US debt crisis, and geopolitical conflicts. Despite significant price fluctuations, the "supply imbalance" problem persisted, and the price reached over $70 by the end of the year, with a cumulative increase of over 120% [1]. - The global silver supply-demand fundamentals have shown a deficit for five consecutive years. Although demand in multiple sectors has declined, the significant increase in silver - supported exchange - traded products (ETP) has tightened market liquidity. In 2026, high profits may drive mining companies to increase production [4][5]. - The operation of major silver mines in the Americas has a significant impact on the global silver market. The production of some mines is expected to increase, while others may face challenges such as resource depletion [9]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 2025 Silver Price Trend Review - In the first half of 2025, silver underperformed gold due to trade frictions and weak industrial product prices. In the second half, strong demand and stable supply led to a continuous decline in spot inventory, and silver prices outperformed gold [1]. - In early October, silver broke through the 2011 high, reaching $50 with a cumulative increase of nearly 90%. After a significant correction, prices rebounded in late November, surpassing the October high and reaching over $70, with a cumulative increase of over 120%. In December, silver prices continued to rise, with a monthly increase of over 30% [1]. Silver Overall Supply - Demand Situation - The global silver supply - demand situation has shown a deficit for five consecutive years, but the deficit has improved compared to previous years. Although demand in multiple sectors has declined, the significant increase in ETPs has tightened market liquidity. AI and new energy sectors have great potential for silver demand, making the supply even tighter [4][5]. - Metal Focus estimates that the global silver mine supply in 2025 will be approximately 31,788 tons, basically the same as in 2024 and at the upper - middle level in the past 10 years. The World Silver Association predicts that the average all - in sustaining cost (AISC) in the first half of 2025 will drop to $13.0 per ounce [5]. Analysis of the Supply Status of Major Silver Mining Enterprises in the Americas - In 2024, the silver production in the Americas accounted for over 50% of the global total. The top 20 global silver - producing enterprises are mainly large comprehensive or copper - gold mining companies, but silver production has a relatively limited marginal contribution to their cash flow [8]. - Five major silver mining companies in the Americas, including Fresnillo, Pan American Silver, Coeur Mining, Hecla Mining, and First Majestic, are expected to account for about 15% of the global silver mine supply in 2025. Their new and old mine exploration and production will affect the competition for key mineral resources [9]. - **Fresnillo**: The world's largest silver mining company, with expected production to decline by 13.8% to 48.5 million ounces in 2025. It may recover in 2026 but remain below 5 million ounces. Some mines face resource depletion risks, while the Juanicipio mine has great exploration potential [10]. - **Pan American Silver**: A Canadian mining company. In 2025, the expected silver production is 22.1 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of about 4.7%. In May 2025, it announced the acquisition of MAG Silver to obtain a 44% stake in the Juanicipio silver mine, which is expected to significantly increase production in the next two years [16]. - **Coeur Mining**: Based in the US, with an expected silver production of 18.45 million ounces in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 61.8%. The Rochester mine is the key growth project, and the Silvertip mine is the core reserve project for medium - to - long - term growth. The company expects production to reach 20 million ounces in 2026, a year - on - year increase of about 30% [18]. - **Hecla Mining**: The largest primary silver producer in the US and Canada. In 2025, the expected silver production is 17.2 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The Greens Creek and Lucky Friday mines contribute about 78% of the production. The company's production is expected to remain stable above 17 million ounces in the next two years [20]. - **First Majestic**: A Canadian company, one of the global silver mining leaders. In 2025, the expected silver production is 15.3 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 82.1%. The San Dimas mine is the main contributor to performance, and the acquisition of the Los Gatos mine shows strong production growth potential [23].

01 主要观点策略 铜周报：弱美元叠加供紧预期，铜价突破新高 2025-12-29 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 上周行情回顾 p 上周沪铜继续突破上行。截至上周五收至98720元/吨，周涨幅5.95%。宏观面，美联储政策偏宽松预期持续，弱美元支撑金属上 涨。国家发改委《大力推动传统产业优化提升》文件提出铜冶炼端的约束，铜产业反内卷情绪继续升温。嘉能可旗下铜矿工会传出罢 工可能性，加剧铜供给紧缺担忧。当前美国comex囤积的铜库存持续增加，非美地区铜供应紧张预期持续，区域性供需错配显著。宏 观面美联储宽松货币预期和产业面供给紧缺担忧继续推升铜价。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 100000 105000 25-12-26 25-12-22 25-12-16 25-12-10 25-12-04 25-11-28 25-11-24 25-11-18 25-11-12 25-11-06 25-10-31 25-10-27 25-10-21 25-10-15 25-10-09 25- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the price of electrolytic copper may show an inverted "V" trend throughout the year. It may fluctuate strongly in the first half of the year, challenging new highs, and weakly in the second half. The volatility of copper prices is expected to converge to a limited extent, and call options remain highly suitable. The main influencing factors include the Fed's monetary policy, Sino - US relations, changes in copper concentrate TC, and energy storage demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Copper Market Review - In 2025, copper prices showed a generally strong and fluctuating trend. By December 10, the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract had risen by nearly 25% during the year. The copper futures market went through four stages: in the first stage (January - March), the first wave of price increase was driven by the tightening supply of copper concentrate and the market's expectation of rising US inflation. In the second stage (April - mid - September), after hitting bottom, the price rebounded and then consolidated for a long time, affected by trade wars, Fed rate - cut expectations, and other factors. In the third stage (late September - mid - November), the second wave of price increase occurred due to the supply shortage of copper concentrate and positive market news. In the fourth stage (mid - November - present), the price repeatedly broke through historical highs, driven by market concerns about the Fed's future policies [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment Outlook 3.2.1 Fed Policy May Remain Loose - In 2025, the Fed's policy experienced multiple adjustments, including rate cuts and the end of the balance - sheet reduction plan. Looking ahead, according to the dot - plot after the December meeting, there is still one rate cut expected in 2026 and 2027. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will continue to expand its balance sheet and the independence of the Fed after Powell's term ends [11][12]. 3.2.2 Sino - US Game Will Continue - In 2025, Sino - US tariff disputes went through several rounds of escalation and mitigation. The US used tariff hikes as a bargaining chip. In the future, Sino - US tariff disputes are expected to continue, and the US may focus on issues such as fentanyl and rare - earth exports [13][15]. 3.3 Demand Side: Emerging Demands Show Obvious Increases and May Explode in 2026 3.3.1 Traditional Industries Have Limited Growth - **Real Estate Remains in a Downturn**: In 2025, despite a series of policies, real - estate investment, new construction, and completion data continued to decline. In 2026, although the government will continue to promote real - estate stability policies, the real - estate market is expected to continue to drag down copper demand in the short term [16][19]. - **White Goods Production and Sales First Strong Then Weak**: In 2025, with the support of the "trade - in" policy, white - goods production and sales were strong in the first half of the year but weakened later. In 2026, with the possible continuation of the policy and the replacement cycle, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales of three major white goods is expected to be higher than in 2025. However, the year - on - year growth rate of exports of white goods has declined overall compared to last year, and its contribution to copper demand growth has weakened [23][24]. 3.3.2 Emerging Demands Will Gradually Become the Main Force of Copper Demand - **AI and Computing Power May Boost Future Power Grid Demand**: In 2025, power and grid infrastructure investment showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. In the future, AI and computing - power industries will become important demand drivers for power and grid infrastructure [29]. - **New - energy Vehicles Provide Stable Increases Despite Slower Growth**: In 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales maintained a relatively high year - on - year growth rate, providing stable copper demand. In 2026, although the subsidy for new - energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales is still expected to remain at a relatively high level [32][34]. - **Photovoltaic Installation in China Has Stable Increases and Exports Are Impressive**: In 2025, due to policy changes, there was a "rush - to - install" phenomenon in the first five months, and the year - on - year growth rate of cumulative new installations and cumulative installations showed an inverted "V" trend. In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of photovoltaic installation may be lower than in 2025 but will still be high. Photovoltaic cell exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate [35][37]. - **Energy Storage Demand May Explode**: In 2025, the new energy - storage installation volume in China is expected to increase by 24% year - on - year. In 2026, it is expected to reach 230GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate close to 70%. Globally, the new energy - storage installation volume in 2026 is expected to reach 480GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate of 60%, providing significant copper demand growth [44][47]. 3.4 Supply Side: Mine - end Shortage Persists, and Smelter Production Cuts May Expand 3.4.1 Frequent Overseas Mine Incidents Lead to Continuous Decline in Copper Concentrate TC - In 2025, overseas copper mines experienced many incidents, causing copper concentrate TC to decline continuously. CSPT called on domestic smelters to jointly cut production in the fourth quarter. In 2026, the global copper concentrate increment is expected to be 45 - 56 tons, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. The shortage of copper concentrate will persist in the first half of 2026, and TC may remain at a very low level [49][62]. 3.4.2 Copper Mine Shortage Has Limited Impact on the Smelting End - In 2025, although copper concentrate was in short supply, the global and Chinese electrolytic copper production basically maintained the highest level in the same period of the past five years. In 2026, the shortage of copper concentrate may be difficult to ease in the first half of the year, and the domestic smelting industry may have a larger - scale joint production cut than in Q4 2025 [63]. 3.4.3 The Siphon Effect of US Copper Continues, and Spot Supplies of Shanghai and London Copper Are Tight - In 2025, due to factors such as tariffs, COMEX copper was at a significant premium, leading to a change in the global copper trade pattern. Copper flowed into the US, causing the inventory of COMEX copper to rise continuously, while the inventory of Shanghai and London copper decreased, resulting in a long - term tight spot supply and high prices [68][70]. 3.4.4 High Copper Prices Pressure Downstream Demand, and Social Inventory Remains at a High Level - In 2025, electrolytic copper social inventory increased to a high level in September, but it had little pressure on copper prices, which were mainly driven by macro factors and low copper concentrate TC [77]. 3.5 Future Outlook and Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.5.1 Global Copper Concentrate Supply - Demand Balance Remains Tight - In 2025, the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance was expected to be - 35 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 40 tons, with the supply gap widening compared to 2025. The shortage will persist in Q1 2026 and gradually ease in the later quarters [79][80]. 3.5.2 Electrolytic Copper Supply - Demand Balance - **Global**: In 2025, the global electrolytic copper supply - demand balance was in a tight state at - 5 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 21 tons, with the gap widening. - **China**: In 2025, the supply - demand balance of Chinese electrolytic copper was - 20.04 tons, with the gap nearly doubling compared to 2024. In 2026, it may decline slightly to - 30 tons, with the gap widening slightly compared to 2025 [81][83].