晨会纪要（2025/11/03） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.03） 券 研 Q3 归母净利润同环比双增，新建厂区预计提前启用——雅葆轩（920357）2025 年三季报点评 宏观及策略研究 外部因素短期扰动下，制造业景气度有所回落——2025 年 10 月 PMI 数据点 评 外部环境缓和，内部政策维稳——2025 年 11 月宏观经济月报 固定收益研究 央行将恢复国债买卖，曲线陡峭化下行——利率债周报 基金研究 权益仓位整体上升，增配电子、通信；减配银行、食品饮料——公募权益类 基金 2025 年三季报持仓分析 公司研究 究 行业研究 报 三季报顺利收官，第十一批集采开标——医药生物行业周报 证 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 9 晨会纪要（2025/11/03） 宏观及策略研究 外部因素短期扰动下，制造业景气度有所回落——2025 年 10 月 PMI 数据点评 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the innovative drug market may soon restart due to reduced geopolitical risks between China and the US, positive earnings reports from companies like Innovent Biologics and Hengrui Medicine, and supportive policies for innovative drugs [1][2] - Recent quarterly reports from the pharmaceutical sector have confirmed the performance of innovative drug companies, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1][2] - The innovative drug sector has experienced a correction since August 2025, which is considered sufficient in duration, with leading stocks entering an absolute return zone [1][2] Group 2 - In the medical device sector, leading companies are showing signs of performance turning points, and attention should be paid to their issuance in the Hong Kong stock market [2] - The current environment is viewed as a high-probability zone for medium to long-term investments in the biopharmaceutical sector, with recommendations for balanced allocations across different market segments [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) and its associated funds track the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Select Index, which includes leading innovative drug companies [2][3] Group 3 - The first drug ETF (562050) launched this year focuses on leading companies in the pharmaceutical sector, including chemical drugs, biological drugs, and traditional Chinese medicine [3] - The Medical ETF (512170) is the largest in its category, focusing on medical devices and services, with significant holdings in companies like Mindray Medical and Aier Eye Hospital [3] - These ETFs are becoming effective tools for investors to capture opportunities in the pharmaceutical and medical sectors, each with its specific focus [3]

Core Insights - The macroeconomic policies have positively impacted the operating performance of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth in revenue and net profit for the third quarter of 2025 [1][2] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue for Shanghai-listed companies reached 37.58 trillion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase, while net profit was 3.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a 4.5% year-on-year growth [1] - The third quarter saw net profit and non-recurring net profit increase by 11.4% and 14.6% year-on-year, respectively, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.9% and 19.2% [1] - A total of 501 companies announced dividend plans, with cash dividends exceeding 600 billion yuan, marking a 3.3% year-on-year increase [1] Industry Growth Drivers - High-tech manufacturing services saw a 9% increase in R&D investment, totaling 229.6 billion yuan, which drove revenue and net profit growth of 10% and 19%, respectively [2] - The semiconductor industry, particularly AI-driven sectors, experienced significant profit increases, with net profits for chip design and semiconductor equipment rising by 82% and 25% year-on-year [2] Sectoral Innovations - The biopharmaceutical sector achieved 26 new drug approvals, including a groundbreaking "rice-based" innovative drug [3] - High-end equipment manufacturing made strides with domestic replacements in critical areas, while infrastructure projects showcased significant technological advancements [3] - The clean energy sector reported a 5% year-on-year increase in power generation, with major companies achieving breakthroughs in high-value product lines [3][4] Consumer Demand and Market Trends - The automotive sector, particularly in smart mobility, saw over 10% quarter-on-quarter growth in electric vehicle sales among five major manufacturers [5] - The tourism sector experienced a 21% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase in the aviation industry, driven by summer travel demand [5] Structural Changes and Reforms - Traditional industries like steel and cement are optimizing supply-demand balances, with steel profits increasing by 550% year-on-year [6] - The photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors are innovating to overcome pricing challenges, with significant recovery in profitability reported [6] Export Performance - Major ports in Shanghai reported a 5% year-on-year increase in cargo throughput, with container throughput rising by 8% [7] - The export of new energy vehicles surged by 71% year-on-year, highlighting strong performance in the automotive sector [7] Regulatory Developments - The introduction of new regulations has accelerated the implementation of reforms in the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with significant increases in IPO applications and asset restructuring activities [8][9] - The number of asset restructuring cases reached 602 in the first three quarters of 2025, with a 117% year-on-year increase in major asset restructurings [9]

Core Insights - The article highlights the net inflow and outflow of funds for various companies in the Hong Kong stock market, indicating significant movements in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1][2][3] Net Inflow Summary - The top three companies with the highest net inflow of funds are Huahong Semiconductor (华虹半导体) with 388 million, Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) with 320 million, and Qingdao Beer (青岛啤酒股份) with 305 million [1][2] - The net inflow percentages for these companies are 8.15%, 7.92%, and 58.54% respectively, indicating strong investor interest, particularly in Qingdao Beer [2][3] Net Outflow Summary - The companies with the highest net outflow of funds include Alibaba-W (阿里巴巴-W) with -523 million, Southern Hang Seng Technology (南方恒生科技) with -429 million, and Tencent Holdings (腾讯控股) with -355 million [1][2] - The net outflow percentages for these companies are -3.89%, -4.86%, and -3.36% respectively, reflecting a negative sentiment among investors towards these stocks [2][3] Net Inflow Ratio Summary - The companies with the highest net inflow ratios are Shenzhen Expressway (深圳高速公路股份) at 68.48%, Anhui Wanshan Expressway (安徽皖通高速公路) at 64.22%, and Legend Holdings (联想控股) at 59.98% [1][3] - These ratios suggest a strong demand for shares in these companies relative to their trading volume [3] Net Outflow Ratio Summary - The companies with the highest net outflow ratios are Huadian International Power (华电国际电力股份) at -62.31%, CIMC Enric (中集安瑞科) at -54.98%, and Connoisseur-B (康诺亚-B) at -52.78% [1][3] - These figures indicate significant selling pressure and a lack of confidence among investors in these stocks [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1]. Core Insights - The 2025 National Medical Insurance negotiation has commenced, with a focus on innovative drugs and a significant increase in the number and quality of applications for drugs outside the basic medical insurance directory [17][18]. - The report highlights a robust performance of the pharmaceutical sector, with the A-share pharmaceutical index showing a year-to-date increase of 21.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.17% [4][9]. - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of China's innovative drug market, driven by a large patient pool, favorable policies, and a strong pipeline of innovative drugs [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The A-share pharmaceutical index has increased by 1.31% this week and 21.1% year-to-date, with significant outperformance against the CSI 300 index [4][9]. - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 73.53%, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index by 40.06% [4][9]. 2. R&D Progress and Company Dynamics - Pfizer has initiated two global Phase III clinical studies for PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies, targeting non-small cell lung cancer and colorectal cancer [4]. - The report notes that 310 generic names have passed the formal review for inclusion outside the basic medical insurance directory, marking a 24.5% increase from 2024 [18]. 3. Industry Insights and Regulatory Developments - The report ranks favored sub-industries as follows: innovative drugs > research services > CXO > traditional Chinese medicine > medical devices > pharmacies [10][12]. - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and Hengrui Medicine, among others, for their strong clinical competitiveness [12][18]. 4. Market Review - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical sector's adjustment has narrowed, with some sub-industries experiencing slight rebounds [4][9]. - The report provides a detailed overview of stock performance, highlighting significant gainers and losers in the A-share and H-share markets [4][9].

10月最后一个交易日（10月31日），沉寂已久的创新药板块突然大爆发，A港同频共振。重仓A股创新 药的药ETF（562050）场内劲涨2.46%，三生国健20CM涨停。港股创新药尽显高弹性，100%创新药研 发标的——港股通创新药ETF（520880）放量上探5.25%！成份股三生制药、映恩生物-B领涨11%。 回到二级市场来看，创新药阶段性调整已持续两个月有余，时间已较为充分，部分龙头品种或已进入绝 对收益区间。后续创新药行情或将逐步过渡到关注"质量因子"的第二阶段，从资金驱动转向基本面驱 动，优质标的的价值将深化，龙头白马有望占优。 【创新药"新势力"——港股通创新药ETF（520880）：纯正创新药，聚焦真龙头，港股高弹性】 港股通创新药ETF（520880）被动跟踪恒生港股通创新药精选指数，该指数完全不含CXO，100%布局 创新药研发类公司，超7成仓位押注大市值创新药龙头，是精准表征创新药硬核力量的纯正创新药指 数。场外投资者可关注其联接基金：025221。 | | | 港股通创新药ETF (520880) 标的指数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 前十成份股 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical sector [7] Core Views - The pharmaceutical sector has shown resilience with a 1.2% increase in the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.6 percentage points during the week of October 27-31, 2025 [3][54] - The overall revenue growth for the pharmaceutical sector in Q1-Q3 2025 was -2%, with a net profit decline of -1%. However, Q3 2025 showed signs of improvement with a 0% revenue growth and a -3% net profit growth compared to Q2 2025 [4][17] - The report highlights the strong performance of innovative drugs, CXO, and upstream sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these segments [4][25] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index increased by 1.2% during the week, ranking 13th among CITIC's primary industry classifications. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 22%, also ranking 13th [3][54] - The top five performing stocks for the week included HeFu China (+49.0%), NuoSiGe (+36.7%), SanSheng GuoJian (+33.1%), ChangShan Pharmaceutical (+29.6%), and ZhenDe Medical (+26.6%) [3][70] Q3 Performance Overview - The pharmaceutical sector's overall revenue growth for Q3 2025 was 0%, with a net profit decline of -3%. The highest revenue growth was seen in Bio-Tech, Bio-Pharma, and home-use devices [4][17] - The report notes that the Bio-Pharma segment has consistently shown strong revenue growth since Q1 2023, indicating a robust performance trend [18][25] Subsector Analysis 1. **BioPharma/Biotech** - Q3 2025 saw significant growth due to multiple innovative drug approvals, with expectations for continued high growth in 2026 [25] 2. **Pharma** - The sector faced challenges with a -1% revenue decline in Q3 2025, but upcoming healthcare negotiations may provide revenue boosts [26] 3. **CXO** - The CXO sector reported a 10% revenue increase and a 51% net profit increase in Q3 2025, with a positive outlook for Q4 and 2026 [31] 4. **Upstream** - The upstream sector's revenue reached 4.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, showing a 13.1% year-on-year growth, with expectations for further growth in 2026 [30] 5. **Medical Devices** - The medical devices sector reported a 10.6% revenue increase in Q3 2025, with a positive outlook for continued growth [41] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality innovative drug leaders and the CXO sector, particularly companies like SanSheng Pharmaceutical, XinDa Bio, and Kangfang Bio [5][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [7] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has shown resilience with a 1.2% increase in the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.6 percentage points during the week of October 27-31, 2025 [3][54] - The overall revenue growth for the pharmaceutical sector in Q1-Q3 2025 was -2%, with a net profit decline of -1%. However, Q3 2025 showed signs of improvement with a 0% revenue growth and a -3% net profit growth compared to Q2 2025 [4][17] - The report highlights that the innovation drug sector and related industries are expected to continue their upward trajectory, driven by strong performance in Q3 and upcoming catalysts such as major conferences and policy changes [5][25] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index increased by 1.2% during the week, ranking 13th among CITIC's primary industry classifications [3][54] - The top-performing stocks included HeFu China (+49.0%), NuoSiGe (+36.7%), and SanSheng GuoJian (+33.1%) [70] 2. Q3 Performance Overview - The pharmaceutical sector's overall revenue growth for Q3 2025 was 0%, with the highest revenue growth seen in Bio-Tech, Bio-Pharma, and home-use devices [4][17] - The net profit growth for Q3 was -3%, with Bio-Pharma, CXO, and upstream sectors showing the best performance [4][17] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality innovative drug leaders and the CXO sector, which have shown strong performance and are expected to continue to do so [5][25] - Recommended stocks for the upcoming month include SanSheng Pharmaceutical, Xinda Biologics, and Kangfang Biologics [5][25] 4. Subsector Analysis - **Bio-Pharma/Biotech**: Significant growth in Q3 with multiple innovative drugs approved, expected to continue in Q4 and 2026 [25] - **Pharma**: Facing challenges but potential for recovery with upcoming policy changes [26] - **CXO**: Strong performance with a 10% revenue increase and 51% net profit growth in Q3, expected to benefit from macroeconomic improvements [31] - **Upstream**: Revenue of 4.4 billion yuan in Q3, showing a 13.1% year-on-year growth, with positive outlook for Q4 and 2026 [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of public fund holdings in the pharmaceutical sector has decreased quarter-on-quarter, but the market is expected to experience a rebound [2][23]. - The investment focus should increasingly emphasize the clinical value of pharmaceuticals, driven by domestic and international policy changes [3][34]. - The report highlights the potential for continuous valuation recovery and upward movement in the pharmaceutical sector due to the opening of the US interest rate cut cycle and advancements in domestic innovative drugs [2][35]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Last week, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 1.31%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.74 percentage points [1][17]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Medical Health Index fell by 0.11%, but still outperformed the Hang Seng Index by 1.97 percentage points [1][17]. Company Updates - Notable clinical application approvals include Shanghai Lai Shi's SR604 injection and YKYY013 injection from Yuekang Pharmaceutical [39]. - Ongoing clinical trials include HRS-8080 from Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and ICP-332 from Nuo Cheng Jian Hua, both in Phase III [39]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a three-stage clinical value investment strategy: "0 to 1" for technological breakthroughs, "1 to 10" for clinical validation, and "10 to 100" for efficiency in the Chinese market [34][35]. - Key recommended companies include Innovent Biologics (H), Eifang Biologics-U, Tian Shi Li, WuXi AppTec (A+H), and Mindray Medical [36]. Fund Holdings - As of Q3 2025, the market value of public funds heavily invested in pharmaceuticals is 11.93%, down by 0.32 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][24]. - The top 20 stocks by market value show significant upward movement for companies like Rongchang Biologics and BeiGene (H) [2][30]. Financial Performance - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry reported a revenue decline of 2.0% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025, totaling 182.11 billion yuan [59]. - The report indicates a positive trend in the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector, with a steady recovery in PE ratios since Q1 2025 [34].

Core Viewpoint - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the pharmaceutical industry performance for the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within various segments, including innovative drugs, medical devices, and traditional Chinese medicine [15][16]. Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index increased by 1.21%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.64 percentage points, ranking 13th among 30 primary industries [9]. - The top ten stocks by increase included Sainuo Medical (+49.01%) and Huakang Clean (+35.62%), while the top ten stocks by decrease included Sainuo Medical (-25.00%) and Huatai Medical (-14.81%) [6][9]. Industry and Company Events - The pharmaceutical sector's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, with net profit down 6.8% and non-recurring profit down 14.6%. In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 0.5%, but net profit and non-recurring profit still faced declines of 4.1% and 8.6%, respectively [16]. - The "Innovation Chain" segment was the fastest-growing within the pharmaceutical industry, with revenue growth of 12.3% and 10.7% in Q1-Q3 and Q3 2025, respectively [16]. - The pharmaceutical manufacturing sector experienced the most significant revenue decline, with specific segments like vaccines and raw materials showing declines of 28.2% and 5.2%, respectively [16]. Overall Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical industry reported revenues of CNY 17,720 million in Q1-Q3 2025, with a notable decline in various segments, including traditional Chinese medicine and medical devices [15]. - The innovative drug sector saw revenues of CNY 450.7 million in Q1-Q3 2025, marking an 8.1% increase, while net profit decreased by 32.7% [21]. Pharmaceutical Manufacturing - The raw material drug sector reported revenues of CNY 1,078.3 million in Q1-Q3 2025, with a decline of 5.2% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 3.6% [25]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the raw material drug sector due to the upcoming patent expirations and the expansion of CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) services [25].