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投资大家谈 | 景顺长城科技军团7月观点
点拾投资· 2025-07-25 03:51
Core Viewpoints - The restructuring of the industrial ecosystem through anti-involution is beneficial for sustainable profitability in various sectors [2][3] - Despite significant advancements in China's technology sector, market sentiment remains pessimistic, impacting the performance of tech stocks [2][5] - The Chinese manufacturing industry plays a crucial role in the global supply chain, with trade risks currently deemed manageable [2] Industry Insights - The current excessive internal competition in industries is hindering wealth accumulation and income growth, leading to layoffs and reduced innovation investment [3] - Legislative measures against unfair competition are being implemented, marking a shift towards a more regulated market environment [3] - The AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant investments from global tech giants, indicating a strong future demand for AI-related infrastructure and applications [6][12] Investment Opportunities - The focus is on sectors aligned with new productive forces, particularly in technology and pharmaceuticals, which are expected to benefit from economic recovery [5][7] - The pharmaceutical sector is seen as having long-term investment value due to demographic trends and the potential for innovative drug development [7][13] - The technology sector's valuation is becoming attractive, especially in areas like AI and consumer electronics, as the market adjusts to new pricing realities [8][10] Macro Economic Context - The macroeconomic environment remains complex, with ongoing uncertainties in trade and economic fundamentals, leading to a focus on structural opportunities in high-performing sectors [10][15] - The Chinese asset market is gradually showing value, with expectations for improved profitability and market performance in the second half of the year [15] - The automotive industry in China is on the rise, with domestic brands gaining market share and expanding into higher-end segments [17] Sector-Specific Trends - The renewable energy sector is facing challenges due to overcapacity and competition, prompting a need for regulatory changes to foster healthier market conditions [16][18] - Companies with strong growth potential and competitive advantages are being prioritized for investment, particularly in sectors like automotive parts and electronics [19]
iPhone倒逼eSIM回归,落地可能就在今年
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-25 03:45
Core Viewpoint - The eSIM technology in China is on the verge of revival after nearly a decade of stagnation, with significant developments expected in 2023, driven by both policy changes and market demands [1][4][21]. Group 1: Historical Context and Development - eSIM technology was first introduced by GSMA in June 2016, and after two years of trials, it saw a surge in 2020 when major telecom operators in China began offering eSIM services for wearable and IoT devices [2][4]. - Despite having a comprehensive eSIM industry framework, the consumer adoption of eSIM in mainland China has been limited until recently [1][4]. Group 2: Recent Challenges - In 2023, the three major telecom operators in China suspended eSIM consumer services due to system upgrades, impacting the growth of eSIM users, which reached 3.62 million by the end of 2023, with 1.43 million new users that year [4][21]. - The suspension is attributed to security concerns, including vulnerabilities that allowed fraudulent registrations and misuse of eSIM technology [4][6]. Group 3: Operational Implications - eSIM technology reduces operational costs for telecom operators by eliminating the need for physical SIM card production and logistics, but it also weakens the contractual relationship between users and operators, leading to potential customer churn [5][6]. - The introduction of eSIM has made it easier for users to switch operators, which has raised concerns among telecom companies about losing customers [6][7]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The anticipated revival of eSIM services in 2025 aligns with the growing demand for connectivity in the AI era, as eSIM technology is essential for new hardware products like smart glasses [8][10]. - Major smartphone manufacturers, including Apple, are pushing for eSIM adoption, with upcoming models like the iPhone 17 Air expected to eliminate physical SIM slots entirely [12][14]. - The global trend towards eSIM adoption is expected to accelerate, with projections indicating that by 2025, approximately 1 billion eSIM-enabled smartphones will be connected worldwide, with China emerging as a key growth market [21][22].
智能底盘从“各自为战”走向高度集成
近日,小鹏汽车发布了全新AI智能家庭SUV——小鹏G7。在发布会上,这款新车配装的太极AI底 盘正式亮相,引发业内高度关注。其后,在2025年国际汽车及智慧出行博览会(IAA Mobility)前夕, 采埃孚举办底盘技术日活动,展示其技术实力与产品组合。 事实上,最近两三年来,汽车行业围绕智能底盘的布局越来越深入,动作也越来越频繁。在电驱 动、"软件定义汽车"及自动驾驶三大趋势共同推动下,底盘系统的战略价值正迎来前所未有的提升。在 这个过程中,汽车底盘正从"零部件组合"走向"智能系统中枢"。 整零密集动作推动底盘智能化 在汽车电动化与智能化"双轮"驱动下,底盘技术革新正在加速,多家整车企业与供应商在底盘集成方面 释放出关键信号。 以小鹏汽车此次亮相的太极AI底盘为例,其主要具备5项能力,包括AI智能识别减速带、AI智能识别颠 簸路段、6D防晕车功能全面进化、AI智能识别路面凹凸及AI智能识别障碍物。另据介绍,该款智能底 盘拥有感知广、执行快、可迭代的优势,可实现最远提前200米识别、最大提前300毫秒调节,最快21天 可迭代一项新功能。小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏表示,太极AI底盘的目标是(助力整车实现)城市通勤不 ...
为什么我说外卖大战是三输局?
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-25 03:25
即时零售,本应该是当下消费的新趋势,给消费者带来便利,给商家带来红利,现在却被卷成了暴力。各个平台都在盯着局部最优解,结果反倒让全局更 差了。 任何事要是急功近利,总想靠资本推着超它本来的速度走,最终只会变形扭曲。就像现在的外卖大战,平台们为了抢市场疯狂补贴,逼着商家破价、让实 体承压,结果只会是消费者用的吃的质量越来越差。 我们应该让消费回归它原有的本质和速度! 外卖大战这几周,我的心情从一开始的兴奋,到现在陷入了极度的焦虑和担心。 杀红了眼的平台们,今天你给五百亿,明天我给 0 元购,仿佛把我带回到了十五年前的电商、十年前的 O2O、共享经济。靠疯狂烧钱补贴拉用户,经历 短暂的集体狂欢后,大批项目消失,幸存者寥寥。 历史无数次证明,只靠烧钱加速市场膨胀,会把本来健康的生态妖魔化。果不其然,上周三家平台就被约去喝茶了。 其实外卖本身不是一个赚钱的生意,刘强东说自己做外卖利润率不能超过 5%,王莆中都"笑"了,美团自己常年运营利润率也只有三点几。既然难赚钱, 为什么还要补贴,大家都在争什么呢? 争的是即时零售这个万亿市场,大家打这么厉害,是因为在传统电商增长率只有 6-8 个点的现在,即时零售能保持 20% ...
马斯克9次哀叹“处境艰难”:卖不动电车,指望无人出租车
创业邦· 2025-07-25 03:11
Core Viewpoint - Tesla is facing significant challenges with declining sales and revenue, leading to a major drop in stock price and market value, as CEO Elon Musk acknowledges the difficulties the company is experiencing [3][6][20]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Tesla reported revenue of $22.5 billion, a 12% year-over-year decline, marking the largest drop in a decade. The automotive segment saw a 16% revenue decrease, while energy business revenue fell by 7% [6][8]. - The gross profit for the quarter was $3.88 billion, down 15.3% year-over-year, and free cash flow was only $146 million, significantly below the expected $760 million [6][8]. - Tesla's vehicle deliveries dropped by 13.5% year-over-year, from 443,000 to 384,000 units, with total deliveries for the first half of the year at 720,000, a 13.24% decline [8][10]. Market Challenges - Tesla's sales are declining across major markets, with a 13% drop in the U.S. and a 33% decline in Europe during the first half of the year. In California, sales fell by 21% for the second quarter [9][10]. - In China, Tesla's sales totaled 129,000 units in Q2, down 12% year-over-year, and 364,000 units in the first half, a 15% decline [10][13]. Management Changes - Following the sales decline, several high-ranking executives responsible for U.S. and European markets have left the company, indicating a significant management restructuring under Musk's leadership [13][15]. Brand Image Issues - Musk's controversial political actions and associations have negatively impacted Tesla's brand image, particularly among liberal consumers in the U.S. and Europe, contributing to the sales decline [15][17]. - Increased competition in the Chinese market from brands like BYD and new entrants like Xiaomi is further eroding Tesla's market share [17][19]. Future Strategies - To boost sales, Tesla may need to lower prices or introduce more affordable models, although Musk has previously canceled plans for a lower-cost model [20][21]. - Musk is focusing on future technologies like autonomous vehicles and robotics as potential new revenue sources, despite current operational challenges in these areas [21][24]. Autonomous Vehicle Developments - Tesla has launched a small fleet of autonomous taxis in Austin, Texas, but the technology still requires human oversight and has faced safety concerns [28][30]. - Musk has made ambitious claims about expanding the autonomous taxi service, despite regulatory challenges and the need for further technological development [31][32].
2025年H1储能电池市场盘点:上半年出货258GWh,同比增长106%
鑫椤储能· 2025-07-25 03:07
厂家方面: 今年海辰储能、比亚迪、中创新航、瑞浦兰钧等头部玩家增速相对较快,上半年出货量已 接近去年的 90% ,也反映出目前整个储能行业市场份额在向头部倾斜。 数据来源: ICC 鑫椤储能数据库 关注公众号,点击公众号主页右上角" ··· ",设置星标 "⭐" ,关注 鑫椤储能 资讯~ 据 ICC 鑫椤储能数据库 统计, 2025 年 H1 全球储能电池出货 258GWh ,同比增长 106% , 其中 国内厂家储能电池出货 252GWh ,同比增长 109% ,海外厂家电池出货 6GWh ,同比增长 42.5% 。 目前储能电池出现宁德时代一超,亿纬锂能、海辰储能、比亚迪多强的市场格局,宁德时代、比亚迪和 远景动力主要采取众向一体化的发展战略,自有储能系统的占比不断提升,尤其是比亚迪。海辰储能、 瑞浦兰钧、国轩高科、赣锋锂电、楚能新能源等厂家也在扩大自有系统集成的占比。 从头部系统集成商自选的供应比例来看: 目前海博思创主要供应来源于宁德时代和亿纬锂能,特斯拉 主要来源于宁德时代,阳光电源则主要由中创新航和欣旺达供应,比亚迪自供电芯,远景能源主要来源 于远景动力,阿特斯主要为海辰储能和亿纬锂能,远信储能主 ...
宋雪涛:中国在关税战中取得了哪些外交进展?
雪涛宏观笔记· 2025-07-25 02:10
中美各自的外交布局对于中美博弈的走向至关重要。 文:国金宏观宋雪涛 自第一轮贸易摩擦以 来,中国明显加快了全球外交步伐。而在特朗普再次当选、全球笼罩在贸易战阴 影的背景下,中国与非美国家的外交关系实现了多点突破。 一 方面,中国与日韩及海合会国 家重启了此前停滞的自贸协定谈判,并显著加快了谈判进程。另一方 面,中国的外交诉求更加精准明确。在与 欧盟的互动中,通过技术授权换取高附加值市场准入,与日 韩则着力构建产业互补的利益共同体。 与此同时,中国在"一带一路"框架下深化与中亚、中东、非洲及拉美地区的合作,重点推进能源与关 键矿产资源的合作以确保供应链安全,积极拓展人工智能和数字经济等新兴领域,并以此为契机加速人 民币国际化进程。 一、 欧盟:以产业技术换高附加值市场 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在 2024-2029 年委员会的政治指导方针将对华的重心更多地放在了"系统性 对手"这一层面,使得中欧关系从原本平衡的"伙伴、竞争者、系统性对手"三元关系,转变为以"竞争 和对抗"为主导。然而,随着特朗普再次入主白宫并对包括其传统盟友在内的全球范围发起贸易战, 欧 盟与中国之间的三元关系发生了变化,双方的接触日益频繁,合作 ...
华为算力概念股表现活跃 云从科技涨超10%
news flash· 2025-07-25 02:08
智通财经7月25日电,云从科技涨超10%,直真科技涨停,天润科技、拓尔思、众诚科技涨超5%,汉得 信息、当虹科技、优刻得、恒为科技等跟涨。消息面上,7月26日至7月29日,2025世界人工智能大会 (WAIC)启幕,华为将首次线下展出昇腾384超节点真机。华为此前推出昇腾超节点技术,实现业界 最大规模的384卡高速总线互联。 华为算力概念股表现活跃 云从科技涨超10% ...
世界人工智能大会即将启幕,AI投资热度升温!大成创业板人工智能ETF(159242.SZ)上市受关注!
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-25 01:46
Group 1 - The 7th World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC 2025) will be held on July 26 in Shanghai, featuring major AI companies like Huawei, Alibaba, Baidu, and SenseTime, focusing on cutting-edge topics such as large models, robotics, smart chips, and industrial integration, reigniting interest in the AI market [1] - The newly launched Dacheng ChiNext AI ETF (159242.SZ) achieved impressive performance on its first day, ranking among the top two in terms of trading volume and latest scale compared to similar products [1] - The ChiNext AI Index has seen a cumulative increase of 151.75% in 2023, significantly outperforming the Sci-Tech Innovation Board AI Index at 82.02% and the CSI AI Index at 102.88%, indicating strong growth potential and market capture ability [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext AI Index focuses more on "hardware + underlying support" compared to the Sci-Tech AI Index, which emphasizes algorithms and software, with heavy investments in optical modules, computing chips, edge computing, and operating systems, aligning with the core logic of current AI industry expansion [1] - Key companies in the index, known as the "three musketeers of optical modules"—Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication—are deeply embedded in the supply chains of global tech giants like Nvidia, benefiting from global computing upgrades and the iteration of 1.6T high-speed optical modules, with expected net profit growth rates exceeding 50% by 2025 [1] - Guosheng Securities highlights the long-term growth potential of the A-share computing power sector, suggesting that as AI applications transition from laboratories to commercialization, computing infrastructure is poised to become a core driver in the next "cloud computing golden decade" [2]
AI芯片的黄金时代
半导体行业观察· 2025-07-25 01:44
对于任何在 20 世纪 50 年代或 60 年代(或者 20 世纪 70 年代或 80 年代)从事过计算的人来说,我们在硬件方面取得的 进步都是惊人的。 但如果你确实追踪摩尔定律并真正分析增量加倍的工作原理,那么这一切都是有道理的。 如果您还记得那个关于聪明人(在某些版本中,指的是国际象棋的发明者)的故事,他要求国王将一粒米的数量翻倍 64 次,您就会明白这是如何发生的——从小而合理的指数级增长开始,最终达到人们最初认为是幻想的境界。 这都是些基础数学知识,但仍然像个魔术——你不断移动:1、2、4、8、16、32——最后得到一个比你想象中更大的数 字!除了维基百科,我还发现了一段描述这个魔术最初发明者的内容,非常有趣:"(这个故事的)各个版本说法不一, 关于发明者是成为高级顾问还是被处决。" 这 一 理 念 也 已 应 用 于 我 们 新 的 人 工 智 能 淘 金 热 —— 事 实 上 , 对 于 研 究 人 工 智 能 细 节 的 人 来 说 , 雷 · 库 兹 韦 尔 ( Ray Kurzweil)谈到的"棋盘下半场"现象正是我想要阐述的核心——最初的数字看起来非常合理,直到你进入序列的一半左 右,真正 ...