zhangyang-yjs@ccnew.com 021-50586627 券商板块 2025 年 12 月回顾及 2026 年 1 月前瞻 ——券商板块月报 证券Ⅱ 分析师：张洋 登记编码：S0730516040002 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 证券Ⅱ相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：聚源、中原证券研究所 -10% -5% 0% 6% 11% 16% 21% 26% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.09 2026.01 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 相关报告 第1页 / 共13页 发布日期：2026 年 01 月 28 日 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 2025 年 11 月 回顾及 12 月前瞻》 2025-12-26 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 2025 年 10 月 回顾及 11 月前瞻》 2025-11-25 《证券Ⅱ行业年度策略：投融资协调发展，行 业景气度延续》 2025-11-24 联系人：李智 风险提示：1.权益及固收市场环境转弱导致上市券商业绩出现下滑；2. 股价短期波动风险；3.资本市 ...

证券Ⅱ 分析师：张洋 登记编码：S0730516040002 zhangyang-yjs@ccnew.com 021-50586627 券商板块 2025 年 12 月回顾及 2026 年 1 月前瞻 ——券商板块月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 证券Ⅱ相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：聚源、中原证券研究所 -10% -5% 0% 6% 11% 16% 21% 26% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.09 2026.01 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 相关报告 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 2025 年 11 月 回顾及 12 月前瞻》 2025-12-26 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 2025 年 10 月 回顾及 11 月前瞻》 2025-11-25 《证券Ⅱ行业年度策略：投融资协调发展，行 业景气度延续》 2025-11-24 联系人：李智 风险提示：1.权益及固收市场环境转弱导致上市券商业绩出现下滑；2. 股价短期波动风险；3.资本市场改革的政策效果不及预期 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共13页 发布日期：2026 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance on the 28th, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to 4151.24 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.09% to 14342.89 points, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.57% to 3323.56 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 29,923 billion yuan, an increase of 708 billion yuan from the previous day, with nearly 3,700 stocks declining [1] Sector Highlights - Resource stocks experienced a significant surge, with China Gold achieving four consecutive trading limits, and Hunan Gold achieving three consecutive trading limits [1] - The storage chip concept saw active performance, with Zhongwei Semiconductor hitting a 20% limit up and Qipai Technology also reaching a 20% limit up [1] - The coal sector rebounded in the afternoon, driven by improving supply-demand dynamics, with Shanxi Coking Coal hitting the limit up and other companies like Lu'an Environmental Energy and Jinkong Coal also rising [1] Price Trends - The average price of thermal coal is projected to reach 824.9 yuan/ton in Q4 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8%, while coking coal is expected to average 1,725.7 yuan/ton, up 10% month-on-month [1] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector showed localized movements in the afternoon, with Xiaoming Co. rising over 10%, and other companies like Dabeinong and Luoniushan also seeing gains [2] - The average price of piglets in the fourth week of January was reported at 25.96 yuan/kg, up 4.5% from the previous week, while the average price of eggs was 9.03 yuan/kg, up 2.7% [2] ETF Trading Activity - There was a significant increase in ETF trading volume, reaching a record high of 7,525 billion yuan, with notable contributions from the CSI 300 ETFs [2] Investment Strategies - The market is expected to enter a period of heightened activity in February, particularly in the AI application sector, with a focus on small-cap, growth, and thematic stocks [6] - Investment opportunities in the AIDC power supply sector are identified, including power supply units, energy storage, and third-generation semiconductors [6] Currency Impact - The RMB is projected to appreciate over 4% against the USD by 2025, with potential continued appreciation into 2026, which historically correlates with better performance of AH equities [7]

来源：21世纪经济报道 记者：李览青 "三年前存的三年期定存，年利率还有3%以上，现在到期后再存，利息直接少了一半多。"在杭州工作的孙女士看着手机银行里即将到期的存 款，感到有些无奈。 像她一样，全国有数百万计的家庭正面临同样的选择：据华泰证券测算，2026年将有50万亿一年期以上的定期存款到期。然而，他们可能面临 同样的窘境——翻遍银行的App，几乎没有2%。 "我也不贪心，只要收益可以跑赢定期存款就行。"孙女士告诉记者，她正在积极寻找收益相对稳定的"存款贵替"产品。 这笔三年前锁定了高利息的存款，在利率步入"1时代"的今天，已经成为银行理财、保险、基金等多赛道觊觎的"香饽饽"。 2026年伊始，这场由"50万亿存款到期"引发的资金争夺战持续升温。 不过，大多港股打新策略产品，仅面向私行用户推出，要成为私行用户不仅需要资产600万-800万元的门槛，单笔理财的申购金额也需从20万 元起步。 记者注意到，网商银行"增利宝"近期也上线了某大行私行同款的港股打新策略产品，可实现"1元起购"，大幅降低了普通人享受港股打新收益 的门槛，从而满足用户多元配置的需求。 此外，微众银行则在原"活期+"产品线的基础上推出了" ...

消息面上，万科债务化解取得重大进展，"22万科MTN004""22万科MTN005"两笔合计57亿元中期票 据，展期议案均获通过。与此同时，万科第一大股东深铁集团向其提供不超过23.6亿元借款，专项用于 偿还公司公开市场债券本金与利息。华泰证券此前认为，龙头压力缓释有助于阶段性稳预期，叠加近期 地产政策预期升温，有助于带来地产股估值修复机遇。 东北证券指出，2026年开年楼市政策持续加码，央行下调结构性工具利率，保障性住房再贷款利率降至 1.25%，商办首付比例从50%降至30%，换房退税政策延期，政策力度明显增强。一线城市供需结构同 步改善，市场预期稳步修复。北京新政后新房成交放量，二手房带看与成交回升，价格跌幅显著收窄。 上海二手房定金与成交量明显回暖，挂牌量持续下降，价格趋稳。深圳二手房带看与签约量创2025年小 阳春以来新高，挂牌价降幅进一步收窄。整体来看，政策支持力度加大叠加一线城市数据改善，楼市量 价指标有望加速筑底。 内房股多数上涨，截至发稿，中国金茂(00817)涨6.62%，报1.62港元；绿城中国(03900)涨5.49%，报 10.38港元；中国海外宏洋集团(00081)涨4.2%，报2 ...

石油股集体走高，截至发稿，中海油(00883)涨4%，报24.46港元；中海油服（601808）(02883)涨 3.26%，报8.87港元；中石油(00857)涨3.29%，报9.1港元；中石化(00386)涨1.71%，报5.35港元。 华泰证券研报指出，地缘溢价已导致淡季油价筑底反弹，随着需求回升及全球性储备性累库，26Q2-Q3 油价有望见底上探，叠加美联储降息对需求拉动，亚非拉地区成品油需求或景气上行，上调26年布伦特 均价为65美元/桶（前值62美元/桶）。长期而言，考虑主要产油国边际成本及"利重于量"诉求，油价中 枢存60美元/桶底部支撑。 消息面上，受伊朗局势、美国恶劣天气以及美元走软提振，油价周二走高。WTI3月原油期货收于每桶 62.39美元，涨幅为2.9%；布伦特3月原油期货收于每桶67.57美元，涨幅为3.02%。据新华社，负责中东 地区美军行动的美军中央司令部27日发布声明说，其第九航空队将举行一场为期数天的空军战备演习。 此外，伊朗官员称已对霍尔木兹海峡进行实时监控。 ...

石油天然气板块再度拉升，中国海油涨超5%再创新高，石化油服涨停，通源石油、海油发展、准油股份、新锦动力、中国石油跟涨。 | 日期号 | 最新值 | 涨跌幅 | 近3月涨跌幅 | 近6月涨跌幅 | 近1年涨跌幅 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-27 | 1999 | 12.30% | 1.16% | -11.43% | 162.7% | | 华泰证券指出，2026年1月以来区域紧张局势引发市场供应风险担忧，淡季油价筑底反弹，随着需求回升及全球性储备性累库，2026年第二季度至第三季度 油价有望见底上探，叠加美联储降息对需求拉动，亚非拉地区成品油需求或景气上行，上调2026年布伦特均价为65美元/桶。长期而言，考虑主要产油国边 际成本及"利重于量"诉求，油价中枢存60美元/桶底部支撑。具备增产降本能力及天然气业务增量的能源龙头企业或将显现配置机遇；油价筑底后库存损失 减少，炼化有望迎来盈利低迷下的景气反转。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 | | 名称 | 涨幅量 | | --- | --- | ...

科创50指数表现突出，涨幅超过1.5%，主要受益于半导体与 交易台盘后综述 华泰境内交易台今日成交比：买vs卖=1：1.14 交易台盘后综述 华泰境内交易台今日成交比：买vs卖=1：1.14 今日整体交易量与过去五个交易日的日均交易量相比上升8.36% * 净买入板块：电子，银行，通信，化工，非银金融 * 净卖出板块：有色金属，公用事业，医药，国防军工，地产 周二A股市场早盘下挫后震荡回升，最终基本持平。 两市合计成交额环比下降11%至2.9万亿元。 两市合计成交额环比下降11%至2.9万亿元。 板块方面，半导体及芯片制造商午后大幅拉升，因美光科技宣布已开始在新加坡现有NAND闪存制造园区内建设 先进晶圆制造厂，并将在未来十年投资约240亿美元。 算力相关个股反弹，因亚马逊网络服务将其EC2机器学习容量块价格上调约15%，标志着在AI计算资源短缺背景源 头星球-D星球下云计算定价逻辑发生重大转变。 商业航天概念股重获资金青睐，因海南国际商业航天发射有限公司发布了多份新的招标公告，采购2026年至2028 年在海南商业航天发射场执行发射任务所需的液甲烷、氦气、液氧和液氮。 另一方面，随着投资者将关注点转向科技股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Southbound East Asia Huatai-Pinebridge CSI A500 ETF has been listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant step in the internationalization of the CSI A500 index and providing a new channel for international investors to access A-share markets [1][2][4]. Group 1: Product Launch and Features - The Southbound East Asia Huatai-Pinebridge CSI A500 ETF (stock code: 3101.HK) was listed on January 28, with an initial price of approximately HKD 7.9 per share and a management fee of 0.99% [2][3]. - The ETF will invest at least 90% of its net assets directly into the Huatai-Pinebridge A500 ETF through QFII and Stock Connect channels, allowing international investors to indirectly invest in a basket of quality listed companies in mainland China [2][3]. Group 2: Market Context and Trends - The listing of the ETF is part of a broader trend where global investors are increasingly allocating funds to Chinese assets, with the CSI A500 index being a key representative of China's economic landscape [4][5]. - The CSI A500 index employs an "industry-neutral" methodology, covering 35 secondary industries and 89 tertiary industries, with over 70% of its weight in new economy sectors, aligning with China's high-quality economic development [4][5]. Group 3: Performance and Growth - As of January 26, the Huatai-Pinebridge A500 ETF had a total size of CNY 46.265 billion, making it the largest product tracking the CSI A500 index, with an average daily trading volume of CNY 14.304 billion this year [3][5]. - The total size of all ETFs tracking the CSI A500 index has exceeded CNY 280 billion, making it the second-largest index product in mainland markets after the CSI 300 index [5]. Group 4: Internationalization Efforts - The internationalization of the CSI A500 index is accelerating, with the listing of the Southbound East Asia Huatai-Pinebridge CSI A500 ETF in Singapore on January 20, allowing Singaporean investors to trade the ETF conveniently [6]. - Deutsche Asset Management announced a partnership with Harvest Global Investments to transform one of its ETFs into a product tracking the CSI A500 index, furthering the index's international presence [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. is conducting air force readiness exercises in the Middle East, leading to a 3.0% increase in WTI crude oil prices to $62.46 per barrel and Brent crude oil prices to $66.72 per barrel [1] - Geopolitical tensions in regions like Venezuela and Iran are raising concerns about supply risks, with the U.S. Central Command announcing military exercises amid increasing military pressure on Iran [1] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar is contributing to rising commodity prices, with the dollar index dropping to 95.51, the lowest level since February 2022, and a cumulative decline of over 2.2% for the month [2] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2026 to 930,000 barrels per day, up from a previous estimate of 860,000 barrels per day, driven by improved global economic prospects and lower oil prices [2] - Deutsche Bank analysts have adjusted their 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast to $61.50 per barrel, anticipating a significant reduction in the oversupply of oil in the second half of 2026 [3] - Huatai Securities has raised its forecast for the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 to $65 per barrel, citing geopolitical premiums and expected demand recovery [3] Group 3 - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) is the largest offshore oil and gas producer in China, focusing on exploration and production with strong cost and return profiles [4] - PetroChina Company Limited (00857) is the largest oil and gas producer and seller in China, with an integrated upstream and downstream business model covering the entire industry chain [4] - Sinopec Limited (00386) is a top global refining company with a strong sales network and capabilities in refining and chemical product production [4]