行 业 及 产 业 房地产 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 2026 年 02 月 25 日 楼市改善趋势下政策放松加码，更彰显维稳房 价的目标和决心 看好 ——上海 225 楼市新政点评 事件： ⚫ 2026 年 2 月 25 日，上海市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、市税务局、 市公积金管理中心等五部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》，其 中：1）优化限购：缩短非沪籍居民购买外环内住房所需缴纳社保或个税年限。对非本市 户籍居民家庭或成年单身人士购买外环内住房的，购房所需缴纳社会保险或个人所得税的 年限，调整为购房之日前连续缴纳满 1 年及以上。符合条件非沪籍居民可在外环内增购 1 套住房。符合条件的持《上海市居住证》群体可在本市购买住房。2）优化住房公积金贷 款政策。3）完善个人住房房产税政策。 点评： 证券分析师 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@sws ...

Group 1 - The real estate sector in both Hong Kong and A-shares saw significant gains on February 25, with notable increases in stock prices for major companies such as Country Garden, CIFI Holdings, and Longfor Group [2] - In the A-share market, companies like Hualian Holdings and Chengdu Investment Holdings experienced substantial price increases, with Hualian reaching the daily limit [2] Group 2 - The recent surge in the real estate market is attributed to multiple positive signals, including new policies from the Shanghai government aimed at optimizing real estate regulations, effective from February 26, 2026 [3] - Key policy changes include reducing housing purchase restrictions, increasing the maximum loan amount for first-time homebuyers to 2.4 million, and tax exemptions for first-time home purchases by adult children [3] - The Shanghai government’s new policies are expected to lower purchasing costs and stimulate housing demand, contributing to a balanced supply-demand relationship in the market [3] - During the Spring Festival, real estate companies actively promoted sales, with many projects offering discounts and special deals, which helped to build momentum for the market [3] Group 3 - According to a report from the China Index Academy, there are signs of recovery in the real estate market, with significant increases in new home transactions in Shanghai compared to last year [4] - The report highlights that while there are still disparities in market performance across different cities, the overall trend indicates a potential recovery, particularly in Shanghai and certain second-tier cities [4] - The introduction of policies aimed at stabilizing the market is expected to enhance market expectations and contribute to a more favorable environment for real estate transactions [4][5]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a mixed performance with a structural characteristic of "strong cyclicals, weak technology" as policy support and rising commodity prices drove the market upward, while profit-taking affected the technology sector [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.66% to 26,765.72 points with a trading volume of 236.765 billion HKD, while the Hang Seng Tech Index slightly declined by 0.19% to 5,260.5 points with a trading volume of 51.908 billion HKD [1][2] Sector Performance - Cyclical sectors such as real estate services (+5.48%), building materials (+3.51%), and mining (+3.29%) led the gains, supported by favorable policies and rising commodity prices [2] - In contrast, technology sectors like software (-5.11%) and semiconductor materials and equipment (-3.94%) saw significant declines due to profit-taking from previously high-performing stocks [2] Individual Stocks - Notable gainers included Tianbao Energy (+69.49%) due to a projected profit increase of 84.5% year-on-year, and Semir Holdings (+60.53%) benefiting from active small-cap market sentiment [2] - Major decliners included Zhijing International Financial (-26.32%), Zhuoyue Holdings (-23.08%), and China National Pharmaceutical Group (-18.75%) [2] Trading Activity - The top three stocks by trading volume were Tencent Holdings (11.981 billion HKD), Alibaba-W (7.110 billion HKD), and HSBC Holdings (6.193 billion HKD) [2] Policy and Economic Developments - The Hong Kong budget proposed optimizing the listing system, including revising "same share, different rights" requirements and advancing T+1 settlement cycle consultations, aiming to enhance market efficiency [2] - New policies in Shanghai's real estate market, including shortening the social security period for non-local buyers and increasing public housing loan limits, stimulated the Hong Kong real estate sector [2] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest focusing on three sectors: precious metals and energy due to rising geopolitical risks, consumer sectors at relatively low valuations, and technology sectors expected to rebound as AI applications accelerate [3] - Concerns over potential VAT increases in service sectors may affect investor sentiment, but pre-meeting policy expectations could support the Hong Kong market [3] - The real estate sector showed overall gains during the Spring Festival, with a continued positive outlook for first-tier and select second-tier cities [3]

21世纪经济报道记者 黄子潇 深圳报道 2月25日，港股市场在政策利好与大宗商品价格走强推动下震荡上行，但科技板块受获利回吐影响表现 偏弱，市场呈现"周期强、科技弱"的结构性特征。南向资金净流出35.69亿港元。 海螺集团计划增持海螺水泥A股（7到14亿元）及海螺创业股权（10.61%），带动建材股上涨；海底捞 春节期间全国门店接待超1400万人次，股价涨6.2%。国际方面，美国将磷元素及草甘膦纳入国防关键 物资，推动磷化工板块热度；印尼镍矿事故引发供应担忧，镍价预期走强。 | | | | | Wind香港概念板块指数 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 彩票 | 铁矿石 | 富士廣 | 钢铁 | 稀土永磁 | 水泥 | 本地银行 | 结金属 | 小金属 | | 6.78% | 4.76% | 4.47% | 4.11% | 3.96% | 3.92% | 3.50% | 3.31% | 3.26% | | 智能建筑 | 今日头条系 | 有色金属 | 涉矿 | 连锁快餐店 | 新材料 | 体育用品 | 本地設 ...

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 以史为鉴，地产债修复路径展望 [Table_Title2] 信用策略宝典之三 [Table_Summary] 2025年 11月以来，万科债券展期事件引发地产债调整，目前高评级主体已 率先止跌，地产债后续修复路径备受市场关注。我们以史为鉴，通过复盘 前两轮地产债信用利差走扩与修复的历程，总结其修复的核心驱动因素及 典型特征，并提出后续地产债投资策略。 ►万科债券展期事件引发地产债调整 2025 年 11 月以来，万科经历了首次境内债展期引发股债双杀、初版展期方 案后多轮博弈、第二版展期方案获通过及 68 亿元债券展期落地。与此同 时，万科债券价格经历了"快速大跌-小幅反弹-大幅反弹"。 受万科债券展期的影响，地产债收益率明显上行，且中低评级表现弱于高 评级、1 年以上表现普遍弱于 1 年以内品种。1 月 15 日以来万科第二版展 期方案获通过并兑付部分本金，万科债券价格明显反弹，但地产债并未迎 来全线修复，而是表现分化。2 月 14 日较 1 月 15 日，隐含评级 AAA 各期 限收益率下行 ...

【导读】2月25日，港股大模型股集体大跌 2月25日，港股三大指数涨跌不一。截至收盘，恒生指数涨0.66%，报26765.72点；恒生科技指数跌0.19%，报5260.50点；恒生国企指数涨0.30%，报 9034.75点。全日大市成交额为2368亿港元，南向资金净卖出40.57亿港元。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | HSI | 恒生指数 | 26765.72c | 175.40 | 0.66% | 2368亿 | 4.43% | | 2 | HSTECH | 恒生科技 | 5260.50c | -10.20 | -0.19% | 519亿 | -4.63% | | 3 | HSBIO | 恒生生物科技 | 15650.45c | -3.74 | -0.02% | 72亿 | 10.38% | | 4 | HSCEI | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9034.75c | 26.89 | 0.30% | 715亿 | 1.36% | | 5 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent introduction of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" has significantly boosted the stock prices of real estate companies in both Hong Kong and A-shares, indicating a positive market reaction to the new policies aimed at easing property purchase restrictions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On February 25, real estate stocks in Hong Kong saw substantial gains, with notable increases such as 7.41% for Heung Kong Holdings and 6.45% for Country Garden [1]. - A-shares also performed well, with the real estate sector rising by 2.11%, highlighted by a 9.96% increase for Chengdu Investment Holdings [1]. - The market's early response to the "Shanghai Seven Measures" was influenced by prior speculation and a recovery in the second-hand housing market in January [1]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "Shanghai Seven Measures" are seen as a significant step in promoting demand and consumption in the real estate sector, aligning with broader economic goals for 2026 [2]. - The recent land auction in Guangzhou set a new record for land prices, indicating strong competition among major developers and reflecting positive sentiment in the real estate market [2]. Group 3: Market Trends - The emergence of a new land price record in Guangzhou is expected to positively influence market expectations and stimulate demand for luxury properties [3]. - Recent data shows a slight recovery in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with a notable increase in online property searches during the Spring Festival [4]. - The overall housing price decline has slowed, with January data indicating a 0.5% decrease, the smallest since August 2025, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Insights - The Shanghai government has introduced new policies to relax housing purchase restrictions, aiming to promote a stable and healthy development of the real estate market [3] - The policies include lowering the threshold for non-local residents to purchase homes, increasing the maximum housing provident fund loan amount, and improving property tax policies to support housing demand [3] - The report suggests that these measures will likely release pent-up housing demand, leading to a gradual recovery in the real estate market [3] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The Shanghai government has relaxed housing purchase restrictions for non-local residents, including: - Reducing the minimum social security or individual income tax payment period to 1 year for purchasing homes in the outer ring [3] - Allowing non-local residents who have paid individual income tax for 3 years or more to purchase an additional home in the outer ring [3] - Permitting non-local residents with a Shanghai residence permit for over 5 years to buy one home without proof of social security or tax payments [3] Loan Policy Adjustments - The maximum housing provident fund loan amount for first-time homebuyers has been increased from 1.6 million to 2.4 million, with potential increases for families with multiple children or those purchasing green buildings [3] - The loan policy has been optimized to allow individuals who have previously used provident fund loans to apply again under certain conditions [3] Tax Policy Enhancements - Starting January 1, 2026, property tax exemptions will be granted to local residents' children when purchasing their first home, aimed at stimulating housing demand [3] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in leading real estate companies such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land, among others [3] - It also suggests focusing on quality developers, property management firms, and commercial real estate [3]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.66% to close at 26,765.72 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.19% to 5,260.50 points. The total trading volume was HKD 2,367.65 million [1] - Tianfeng Securities noted that the market is experiencing high-level fluctuations after previous valuation adjustments, supported by continuous net inflows from southbound funds and structural activity [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Haidilao (06862) led the blue-chip stocks with a 6.19% increase, closing at HKD 17.51, contributing 3.12 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company served over 14 million customers during the recent Spring Festival holiday, a significant increase compared to last year [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances included HSBC Holdings (00005) up 5.47% to HKD 142.7, contributing 140.04 points, and Longfor Group (00960) up 4.6% to HKD 10.24, contributing 1.83 points [2] Sector Highlights - Large technology stocks showed mixed results, with Tencent rising by 0.48% and Alibaba by 0.2%. The market saw strong performance in rare earth and tungsten stocks due to rising prices [3] - The Shanghai real estate market's new policies led to a positive performance in property stocks, with Country Garden (02007) up 6.45% and CIFI Holdings (00884) up 6.02% [4] - Consumer stocks, particularly in the restaurant and sports sectors, performed well, with Haidilao and Anta Sports (02020) rising by 6.19% and 2.48%, respectively [5] Consumption Trends - Dazhong Securities reported that the recent Spring Festival holiday showed positive consumption data, indicating a preliminary recovery in the domestic market, particularly in tourism and dining sectors [6] - The report highlighted structural growth opportunities in industries like dining and experiential consumption, supported by potential policy backing and overseas growth prospects [6] Notable Stock Movements - HSBC Holdings (00005) reported a revenue increase of USD 2.4 billion to USD 68.3 billion for 2025, with a net interest income of USD 34.8 billion, reflecting a 4% growth [7] - Green Tea Group (06831) announced a profit forecast for 2025 of approximately RMB 460 million to RMB 508 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.4% to 45.1% [8] - Conch Group stocks were active, with Conch Cement (00914) rising by 5.53% after announcing a plan for significant share buybacks [8]

Group 1 - Haidilao increased by 5.943% [1] - HSBC Holdings rose by 5.469% [1] - Longfor Group saw a rise of 4.596% [1] - Master Kong Holdings increased by 3.758% [1] Group 2 - Leap Motor declined by 3.712% [1] - Tongcheng Travel dropped by 4.973% [1] - SenseTime-W fell by 5.364% [1]