化工行业ETF易方达（516570）跟踪中证石化产业指数，备受资金青睐。数据显示，该基金连续5日获 资金净流入，合计超2.2亿，近20日资金净流入超3.4亿。截至发稿，化工行业ETF易方达（516570）盘 中溢价成交，溢价率达0.28%。 消息面上，近期中东局势显著升温，市场担忧大规模石油断供，原油地缘溢价攀升，并带动下游能化商 品上涨。 截至9：42，中证石化产业指数（H11057）涨0.54%，成分股中，万华化学涨1.77%，中国石油涨 1.72%，中国石化涨0.47%，盐湖股份跌1.25%，中国海油涨2.86%，藏格矿业跌2.32%，巨化股份跌 0.83%，恒力石化涨0.43%，华鲁恒升涨0.6%，宝丰能源涨2.21%。 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接A(020104.OF) 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接C(020105.OF) 华泰证券认为，油价或已进入筑底反弹阶段，叠加美联储降息对需求拉动，亚非拉地区成品油需求或景 气上行，上调2026年布伦特均价为65美元/桶（前值62美元/桶）。长期而言，考虑主要产油国边际成本 及"利重于量"诉求，油价中枢存60美元/桶底部支撑。具备增产降本能力及天然气业务增量 ...

2025年地区生产总值突破1.1万亿元，工业总产值达到1.32万亿元 2025年，烟台大力发展现代服务业，细化14个行业65项具体措施，协同开展2批50项生产性服务业 突破事项，新增规上服务业企业138家。1-11月，规模以上服务业营业收入同比增长3.3%。10大行业门 类中，9个行业营业收入实现增长，软件和信息技术服务业营业收入增长6.9%，租赁和商务服务业增长 10.8%，文化、体育和娱乐业增长11.9%。烟台出台加力提振消费实施方案，入选国家消费新业态新模 式新场景试点城市，发放消费品以旧换新资金20亿元，拉动消费136亿元。全年实现社会消费品零售总 额4068.8亿元，增长5.8%。 对外开放迈出新步伐。举办重要招商活动20余场，引进千万美元项目30个，万华科威特股权合作到 资6.38亿美元，是全省近年来最大的单体外资项目。积极应对外部复杂环境，实施外贸骨干、新增实 绩"双百工程"，组织"千企出海"，全年实现外贸进出口总值5379.3亿元，增长13.7%，其中，对欧盟增 长26.7%，对共建"一带一路"国家增长13.1%。 2025年，18项重点民生实事全部完成，民生支出占比达到79.5%。社会保障更 ...

Group 1 - The core intermediate product prices for disperse dyes have surged by 50% this year, from 25,000 to 38,000, leading to an increase in dye prices, with a notable rise of 1,000 in disperse black prices on January 22, and expectations for continued price increases in the future [1] - Due to stricter environmental and safety inspections, outdated production capacity is gradually exiting the market, resulting in a highly concentrated supply with only three main suppliers remaining, and a strong demand outlook [1] - Historical data indicates that due to environmental issues, the price of the intermediate product has previously risen to 100,000, with short-term expectations seeing it reach 50,000, corresponding to a price increase of 25,000; disperse dye prices are projected to reach 20,000, corresponding to an increase of 4,000 [1] Group 2 - The chemical ETF (159870) has seen a strong increase of 2.63%, with a latest price of 0.93 yuan and a net subscription of 300 million shares, marking a continuous inflow for 20 days [2] - The CSI sub-industry chemical theme index (000813) has risen by 2, with major stocks like Zhejiang Longsheng up by 9.99% and Hebang Biotechnology by 8.98%, indicating strong performance in the chemical sector [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI sub-industry chemical theme index account for 45.31% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry [2]

Group 1 - The chemical sector has regained momentum, with the chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a rise of 1.96% after a brief fluctuation at the opening [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector include Zhejiang Longsheng, which hit the daily limit, and other notable gainers such as Hebang Biotechnology, Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Hengyi Petrochemical, all showing significant increases [1][2] - The chemical ETF (516020) has attracted substantial investment, with net subscriptions of 1.422 billion yuan over the past five days and 2.14 billion yuan over the past ten days [1][2] Group 2 - Recent advancements in the basic chemical industry include breakthroughs in green refrigeration technology and key technologies for the industrialization of high-performance liquid crystal polyarylate fibers [3] - Looking ahead, the chemical industry is expected to experience low prosperity in 2025, with potential recovery in profitability driven by measures against "involution" and rapid growth in new materials due to downstream demand [3] - Investment opportunities in the large chemical sector are viewed positively, particularly in leading companies and sub-industries facing supply changes or significant pressure [3]

截至9：36，中证石化产业指数（H11057）涨1.21%，成分股中，万华化学涨2.04%，中国石油涨 1.92%，中国石化涨0.94%，盐湖股份跌0.28%，中国海油涨3.97%，藏格矿业跌2.01%，巨化股份涨 0.75%，恒力石化涨1.67%，华鲁恒升涨1.42%，宝丰能源涨2.7%。 化工行业ETF易方达（516570）跟踪中证石化产业指数，备受资金青睐。数据显示，该基金连续5日获 资金净流入，合计超2.2亿，近20日资金净流入超3.4亿。 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接A(020104.OF) 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接C(020105.OF) 受席卷全美的冬季风暴影响，美国能源基础设施和电网承压。机构预测，上周末期间美国原油生产商的 日产量减少至多200万桶，约占全国原油总产量的15%。此外，美国寒潮进一步引发市场对乙二醇供应 担忧。 相关产品： 化工行业ETF易方达（516570）覆盖"三桶油"，一键打包化工产业龙头，管理费率+托管费率合计仅 0.2%/年，助力投资者低成本布局传统能源产业机会。 国金证券认为，化工板块或将重估，一是供给端的政策指引可能使得供给端的天花板更加明晰，产业地 位方面， ...

证券研究报告 基础材料/能源 1 月下旬以来，美国遭遇冬季风暴极端天气已造成部分受灾地区天然气/电力 供应中断、能源价格上涨等影响，其中作为美国化工重要供给区的得克萨斯 州墨西哥湾沿岸炼油、化工等部分工厂开工已受影响。考虑到美国较多大宗 化工品占全球产能比重仍较高，因而本轮寒潮导致的潜在供给下滑或对相关 产品的供应稳定性造成一定冲击。同时，由于我国大宗化工品已步入产能周 期和库存周期双重拐点，海外供给的潜在下滑或助力国内相关化工品开工率 提升及景气率先修复。关注炼油、乙烯、醋酸、MDI、TDI 等，推荐万华化 学、华谊集团、中国石化（A/H）。 美国遭遇寒潮极端天气，部分大宗化工品供给或受到冲击 据财联社、中新网等，美东时间 1 月 23 日以来，美国遭遇大规模冬季风暴， 已致逾 20 个州进入紧急状态，极端天气已造成部分受灾地区人员伤亡、天 然气/电力供应中断、能源价格上涨等影响，且得克萨斯州墨西哥湾沿岸多 家炼油厂、化工厂和制造商已被迫停产。同时，据美国国家气象局，极寒天 气或将持续到 2 月初。由于美国本土炼油、乙烯、醋酸、MDI、TDI 等较多 化工品产能占全球比重较高（2025 年多种产品产能占比在 ...

机构指出，在25年12月底到1月初，确实是预期化工企业盈利改善，到1月27日，化工企业实时的利润已 经发生很大的变化。比如烟煤价格从去年11月份820跌到现在700。宝丰能源一年化工用煤2800万吨，华 鲁用煤近1000万吨，煤价跌120，成本端改善分别是30、10亿以上。这还是化工品是淡季，价格还没怎 么涨的情况下。 此前调整的化工板块今日强势反弹，消息面上，1月化工股持续上涨，化工品价格涨幅有限，市场担忧 股价涨幅过于领先。 炼化企业利润改善更夸张，从去年11月到现在人民币相比美元升值了3%。按照一年2000万吨的原油采 购来算，65美元/桶，采购成本降低了近20亿人民币。如果在算配套的1000万吨煤炭消耗，2000万吨炼 厂光能源就改善了近30亿。这还是产品价格没涨的情况，没算下降的气价，油价，电价。化工企业只要 正常点，经营已经大幅度改善了，股价上涨很正常。 原料PPI同比大幅回落，产品PPI转正，价差同比大幅改善，化工股真正的弹性才出来。25年1、2、3月 布伦特油价为78、74、71美元，长丝POY价格分别为7215、7288、7070元。现在油价66美元，长丝POY 价格为6800元，如果后续2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a positive trend, with the China Petrochemical Industry Index showing an increase, and significant inflows into the Petrochemical ETF, indicating strong investor interest and potential for growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 28, 2026, the China Petrochemical Industry Index rose by 0.54%, with key stocks like Zhejiang Longsheng hitting the daily limit up, and others such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Hubei Biopharma also seeing gains [1]. - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) increased by 0.39%, with a turnover rate of 4.34% during the trading session [1]. - Over the past 15 days, the Petrochemical ETF has attracted a total net inflow of 745 million yuan, reaching a record high of 1.018 billion shares and a total size of 1.045 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The Petrochemical ETF has seen a net value increase of 62.39% over the past two years [1]. - The highest monthly return since inception was 15.86%, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being 8 months and a maximum cumulative increase of 41.60% [1]. - The average monthly return during the rising months was 5.25%, and the ETF outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 2.35% over the past year [1]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Tianfeng Securities indicates that a turning point in policy and capital expenditure is evident, with the concept of "anti-involution" suggesting improved profitability and healthier long-term development for the industry [1]. - The chemical industry is entering a strategic window, characterized by the exit of high-cost marginal capacity overseas and a restructuring of the global chemical order [1]. Group 4: Top Holdings - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Petrochemical Industry Index accounted for 56.73% of the index, including Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical among others [2].

Core Insights - The chemical industry is approaching a cyclical turning point, with the current low valuation presenting potential investment opportunities. The industry is expected to recover from its profitability bottom due to measures like "anti-involution" and the rapid growth of new materials driven by downstream demand [2][3][8]. Industry Overview - The chemical industry experienced a low point in 2025, with the PPI for industrial products, production materials, and chemical industries showing negative year-on-year growth for 38 consecutive months, marking the second-longest period of negative growth in history [16]. - As of the end of 2025, 30 out of 111 tracked chemical products had prices in the bottom 10% of their historical range, indicating significant pricing pressure [18]. Supply Dynamics - The construction of new projects in the chemical sector has seen a negative year-on-year growth rate, signaling that the current round of capacity expansion is nearing its end. By Q3 2025, the total fixed assets in the basic chemical industry reached 14,628.58 billion RMB, a 15.56% increase year-on-year, but the growth rate of ongoing projects turned negative for the first time in nearly four years [16][18]. Demand Trends - Domestic demand in the real estate sector is under pressure, but sectors like automotive and chemical fibers are showing positive growth. The demand for related products is expected to continue improving, supported by policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and the rapid development of downstream industries such as new energy and AI [16][18]. Cost Factors - The global oil market is expected to remain oversupplied in 2026, with international oil prices projected to stabilize within a range of 50-70 USD per barrel. This could lead to a gradual recovery in oil prices, although geopolitical events may introduce volatility [16][18]. Valuation Metrics - As of January 23, 2026, the SW basic chemical index had a TTM P/E ratio of 29.45, placing it at the 41.85% percentile since 2002, indicating a low valuation environment. The oil and petrochemical index had a TTM P/E ratio of 14.08, at the 12.49% percentile [16][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on traditional chemical leaders that are expanding into new materials, as they are expected to see both performance and valuation improvements. Recommended companies include WanHua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others [2][3][8]. - Attention is also drawn to sub-industries benefiting from "anti-involution" measures, such as refining, polyester, and organic silicon, where price levels are low and supply dynamics are improving [2][3][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant price increase of styrene and benzene, with styrene rising nearly 1500 points and benzene breaking through the consolidation zone, attracting attention from investors [3][28] - The downstream performance of styrene, particularly in the ABS and PS sectors, faced pressures in 2025 due to increased production capacity and various negative factors, including export friction and reduced domestic subsidies [3][29] - Despite these pressures, downstream companies managed to maintain operations through strategies like increasing turnover and locking in price differences, resulting in stable operating rates for the year [4][29] Group 2 - For 2026, the outlook for styrene's downstream performance is optimistic, with a significant reduction in new production capacity pressures compared to 2025, leading to a more favorable competitive environment [6][31] - The demand for styrene is expected to remain strong, as downstream applications continue to explore new needs, and the actual consumption of hard plastic products remains high [6][31] - The overall supply growth is expected to slow down, and there are no significant pressures on demand, indicating that the three S sectors are unlikely to experience a substantial downturn [6][31] Group 3 - The pure benzene market is still in a high prosperity cycle, with a significant domestic supply gap that needs to be filled through imports [10][35] - In 2025, while the overall performance of pure benzene's downstream sectors was under pressure, the consumption from the five major downstream sectors showed a growth of 6.7%, matching the supply growth [10][35] - For 2026, the production capacity growth of pure benzene's downstream sectors is expected to remain low, with the overall demand outlook being positive, particularly due to the anticipated recovery in the benzene sector [12][37] Group 4 - The benzene downstream sectors, including caprolactam and aniline, are expected to show improvement in 2026, with caprolactam likely to exit its weak phase due to a more favorable macro environment [42][43] - Aniline faced significant negative feedback in 2025 due to export challenges, but the outlook for 2026 remains positive as overseas demand is expected to remain strong [44] - Phenol and adipic acid are not expected to face significant contradictions in their markets, with phenol's production capacity growth slowing and adipic acid continuing to experience pressure [47] Group 5 - Overall, both pure benzene and styrene faced challenges in 2025, but the strategies employed by downstream sectors to manage pressures indicate resilience [24][49] - The macro environment in 2026 is expected to be more favorable, with a likelihood of improved terminal demand and a stable supply-demand balance [24][49] - Long-term, the improvement in the downstream sectors suggests that the price increases of pure benzene and styrene are unlikely to be interrupted by negative feedback from demand [24][49]