来源：中国能源网 上周行情回顾 过去一周（12.01–12.07）主要指数涨跌幅情况：申万建筑材料行业指数（+1.55%），上证指数 （+0.37%），深证成指（+1.26%），创业板指（+1.86%），沪深300（+1.28%）。在申万31个一级子 行业指数中，建筑材料涨跌幅排名居第9位。 风险提示： 水泥：11月北方逐步进入采暖季，错峰生产政策将推动供给收缩，价格有望迎来阶段性上涨，同时短期 由于部分项目抢工，需求阶段性提升。整体来看，基建端整体受到天气干扰、需求释放节奏等因素影 响，其对需求并未完全显现，房建端，需求端仍然处于弱复苏态势。从中期维度来看，水泥行业产能有 望在限制超产政策下产能持续下降，产能利用率从而大幅提升带来利润弹性。关注：海螺水泥、华新建 材。 玻璃：行业需求端在地产影响下25年呈现需求持续下行态势。短期来看，需求传统旺季订单改善力度一 般仍承压，中间商库存相对较高。目前行业供需矛盾仍存，下游终端需求改善有限。供给端，考虑到目 前浮法玻璃行业中大部分企业已能达到环保要求，我们判断反内卷政策不会产生一刀切式产能出清，但 仍会提升环保要求及成本，加速行业的冷修进度。后续持续关注政策变化的 ...

Group 1 - The cement industry is undergoing a digital transformation with the integration of AI technologies, enhancing the entire production chain's intelligence level [1][2] - The construction materials industry aims to achieve a numerical control rate of 66.5% for key processes by 2024, with the emergence of digital mines, smart factories, and industrial internet platforms [1][2] - The China Building Materials Federation has established 11 national key laboratories and innovation platforms to support technological advancements in the industry [2] Group 2 - The industry has identified 76 key research directions and formed 174 research teams to focus on green low-carbon technologies, artificial intelligence, and resource utilization [2][3] - A mechanism for major technological breakthroughs has been established to enhance collaboration between academia and industry, aiming to improve the efficiency of technology transfer and application [3] - The promotion of the "AI + building materials" development model is expected to enhance efficiency across research, production, and management processes, pushing the industry towards a 4.0 stage [3]

发布时间：2025-12-08 行业投资评级 证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 5252.51 | | 52 周最高 | 5417.39 | | 52 周最低 | 4167.51 | 行业相对指数表现 -11% -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-12 建筑材料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《"反内卷"下拐点渐显，关注出海及 转型机遇》 - 2025.11.26 建材行业报告 （2025.12.01-2025.12.07） 需求逐步进入淡季，期待地产及化债政策落地 投资要点 12 月 2 日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁在《党建》杂志发布《深 入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神，以高质量发展新成效谱写中国 式现代化新篇章》署名文章。文章中提到要提高防范化 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly copper, aluminum, and the construction materials sector, as well as the gold market and its outlook [1][2][4][5][6][9]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper Market**: Short-term price surge due to U.S. tariff expectations leading to an expanded price gap between LME and COMEX. The U.S. market pricing is deviating from fundamentals. By 2026, the U.S. siphoning effect may create tight inventory risks in non-U.S. regions, but a return to fundamental pricing could occur if LME experiences warehouse congestion or tariff expectations decrease, leading to potential oversupply risks [1][5]. - **Aluminum Market**: Prices are expected to follow copper trends, with global supply affected by electricity shortages. Domestic production has peaked, and high overseas energy costs, along with investment cycle constraints, will likely lead to a decline in supply growth from 2025 to 2030. A bull market is needed to strengthen price incentives, with occasional events also pushing prices up [1][5]. Gold Market - The outlook for the gold market remains optimistic, driven by central bank purchases, ETF investments, and potential gold tokenization. Gold prices are expected to rise significantly by 2026, with current stock valuations between 10 to 13 times earnings being attractive [1][4]. Construction Materials - The construction materials sector is experiencing supply contraction under profit pressure. Recommendations include focusing on consumer building materials and leading fiberglass companies. Differentiation in product offerings is allowing some companies to achieve excess profits, with leading float glass companies expected to balance supply through self-initiated repairs, aiding profit recovery [1][6][7][8]. Fiberglass Industry - Demand for fiberglass is projected to grow in the high single digits, with approximately 400,000 tons of new domestic supply expected next year, while about 100,000 tons of overseas capacity will exit annually. High-end products remain scarce, and leading companies like China National Building Material and China Jushi are recommended [3][9]. Cement Industry - The cement industry is controlling supply through production limits and peak-shifting measures. By the end of 2025, a net reduction of over 50 million tons of capacity is anticipated, with a potential overall capacity reduction of over 10% in 2026 if monitoring and enforcement measures are effective. The industry is expected to see a moderate recovery in profit margins [11]. Phosphate and Potash Markets - Phosphate demand is significantly driven by the growth in energy storage, with total demand for power and storage batteries expected to reach 450 to 500 GWh by 2026, translating to a demand for 4.3 to 5 million tons of phosphate rock. The potash market is also expected to see stable growth, with limited new supply and high import dependence from China, leading to favorable price expectations [22][24]. Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is currently at a cyclical low but is expected to enter an upward phase starting late 2025. Industry self-discipline measures are enhancing price elasticity, with recent price increases observed in various chemical products [25][26][27]. Investment Opportunities - Recommended investment opportunities include potassium and phosphorus fertilizers, which are supported by strong fundamentals and global agricultural and renewable energy growth. Related fine chemicals like refined phosphoric acid and yellow phosphorus also show significant investment potential due to their wide applications [28].

Core Viewpoint - Western Cement (02233) has seen a nearly 3% increase in stock price, currently at HKD 3.11, with a trading volume of HKD 22.81 million, following the announcement of a bond issuance [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance - The company and its guarantors have entered into a purchase agreement with CICC, HSBC, and J.P. Morgan for the issuance of USD 400 million senior notes due in 2028, with a coupon rate of 9.90% [1] - The notes will be sold at 99.115% of the principal amount, and the proceeds will be used to repurchase, redeem, or repay existing debts, including a tender offer for the 2026 notes, as well as for working capital [1] Group 2: Financial Outlook - Fitch Ratings anticipates that after the issuance of the USD 400 million bonds, Western Cement will not face significant debt maturities before 2028, which supports its financial flexibility and expected ratings [1] - The company plans to use proceeds from the sale of its Xinjiang assets for debt repayment, specifically targeting the USD 600 million notes maturing in July 2026 [1] - With improvements in EBITDA, moderate capital expenditures, and enhanced financing channels, the company is expected to have over RMB 2 billion in cash available by the end of 2026, up from RMB 1.3 billion in 2024 [1]

Summary of Gypsum Board Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The gypsum board market in Shanghai is experiencing a price decline, particularly among foreign brands like Saint-Gobain and KNAUF, with Saint-Gobain's price reductions being notably aggressive, even undercutting domestic brand Longpai [1][2][4] - The price of Saint-Gobain's standard 9.5 board has dropped significantly from approximately 8 RMB to 6.6 RMB per square meter, supported by rebate policies to attract distributors [1][4] - The market is driven by inventory pressures and competition for market share, leading to frequent price adjustments and a price war among brands [2][3] Key Players and Strategies - **Saint-Gobain**: Adopted an aggressive pricing strategy to capture market share, but has not met sales expectations due to competitors quickly matching price cuts [2][4][18] - **KNAUF**: Attempting to challenge competitors through acquisitions and a multi-brand strategy, but faces challenges with high pricing [1][4] - **Longpai and Taishan**: Reluctant to lower prices significantly due to financial targets, focusing more on project sales rather than retail [2][5][17] - **New Entrants**: Companies like Oriental Yuhong and Conch Cement have entered the gypsum board market, but their impact is currently limited due to the competitive landscape [10][12] Market Dynamics - The gypsum board industry is characterized by a strong demand resilience, with demand decline being less severe compared to other building materials [13] - The introduction of cost-effective new products is expected to drive sales growth [13] - The market is currently in a bottleneck phase, with limited room for significant price adjustments due to stable production costs and weak demand [3] Production and Capacity - KNAUF is expanding production capacity with new lines expected to add 40-50 million square meters annually, while Saint-Gobain plans to build a new factory in the south [7][8] - Current production capacity for new factories is around 40-50 million square meters per year, while older facilities produce about 30-40 million square meters [9] Distribution Channels - Domestic brands like Longpai and Taishan primarily sell through project channels, while foreign brands focus on retail, leading to mutual market penetration [14][17] - The home decoration channel accounts for only 20-30% of the market, with the majority (70-80%) focused on project sales, which are currently facing profitability challenges for distributors [16][21] Financial Performance - Foreign brands maintain profitability with production costs around 4 RMB per square meter, despite the competitive pricing environment [11] - The overall market is experiencing a decline in profit margins due to aggressive pricing strategies and increased competition [18] Conclusion - The gypsum board industry is navigating a challenging environment marked by aggressive pricing strategies, competitive pressures, and evolving market dynamics. The resilience of demand and strategic expansions by key players may provide opportunities for growth despite current challenges.

Group 1 - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued the "Quota Allocation Plan" for carbon emissions trading in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries for 2024 and 2025, which is based on the successful experience of the power generation sector [1] - The quota allocation will be linked to actual production levels without setting an absolute cap on total carbon emissions, aiming to encourage advanced practices and penalize laggards [1] - The plan requires newly included industries to complete their first quota compliance within the year, with government oversight to ensure timely compliance and maintain the integrity of the carbon trading market [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities reports that over 85% of clinker production lines in northern provinces are currently offline due to winter production restrictions, with plans for further shutdowns in December [2] - The report indicates that the cement industry's bottom-line profitability is supported, and by 2025, leading companies will begin to address excess production capacity, with a total of 52.5 million tons of capacity being replaced and 83.59 million tons exiting the market [2] - The actual effects of production capacity management are expected to become evident in 2026 [2] Group 3 - Related Hong Kong stocks in the cement sector include Huaxin Cement (06655), China National Building Material (03323), Conch Cement (00914), China Resources Cement Technology (01313), and others [3]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued the "2024-2025 National Carbon Emission Trading Market Quota Allocation Plan" for the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, which is based on the mature experience of the power generation sector [1] - The quota allocation framework continues to focus on free allocation based on carbon emission intensity, linking the quota amount to actual production without setting an absolute cap on total carbon emissions [1] - The plan requires newly included enterprises to complete their first quota compliance within the year, with local governments responsible for ensuring timely compliance to maintain the integrity and effectiveness of the carbon trading market [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities reports that over 85% of clinker lines in northern provinces are currently in a shutdown state due to peak production adjustments, with plans for shutdowns in December varying by region [2] - The report indicates that the cement sector is experiencing strong bottom-line profit support, with head enterprises expected to address excess production capacity by 2025, having already replaced 52.5 million tons of capacity while exiting 83.59 million tons [2] - The actual effects of excess production governance are anticipated to become evident in 2026, as policies are designed to provide a window for excess production enterprises to adjust [2] Group 3 - Related Hong Kong stocks in the cement sector include Huaxin Cement (06655), China National Building Material (03323), Conch Cement (00914), China Resources Cement Technology (01313), Shanshui Cement (00691), Western Cement (02233), Jinyu Group (02009), and Asia Cement (China) (00743) [3]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued the "2024-2025 National Carbon Emission Trading Market Quota Allocation Plan" for the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, which is based on the successful experience of the power generation sector [1] - The quota allocation framework continues to focus on free allocation based on carbon emission intensity, linking the quota amount to actual production without setting an absolute cap on total carbon emissions [1] - The plan aims to encourage advanced practices and penalize laggards, with local governments tasked to ensure timely compliance by enterprises to maintain the integrity and effectiveness of the carbon trading market [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities reports that most northern provinces have begun staggered production during the heating season, with over 85% of clinker lines currently offline, and various provinces announcing December shutdown plans [2] - The cement sector is expected to see strong bottom-line profit support in the short term, with some enterprises starting to address excess production capacity, having replaced 52.5 million tons and exited 83.59 million tons of capacity as of November [2] - The policy environment in 2025 is designed to provide a window for enterprises with excess production to adjust their capacity, with the effects of actual production governance expected to become evident in 2026 [2] Group 3 - Related Hong Kong stocks in the cement sector include Huaxin Cement, China National Building Material, Conch Cement, China Resources Cement Technology, Shanshui Cement, Western Cement, Jinyu Group, and Asia Cement (China) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The latest report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that the cement industry has strong support for bottom-line profitability in the short term, and its future development direction is becoming clearer [1] Short-term Analysis - The cement industry is currently entering a critical period of staggered production during the heating season, with over 85% of clinker lines in northern provinces in a shutdown state [2] - Various provinces have announced their shutdown plans for December, with the Yangtze River Delta region planning to shut down for 13 to 15 days, and Hunan province planning a complete shutdown for a month due to environmental pressures [2] - The increased efforts in staggered production have effectively reduced market supply, providing strong support for cement prices and establishing a solid foundation for bottom-line profitability in the industry [2] Related Companies - Conch Cement, as a leading company in the cement industry, has a large production scale and extensive sales network, allowing it to better control market supply and stabilize product prices during staggered production [3] - Huaxin Cement has made significant investments in technology research and environmental protection, enabling it to maintain a high market share and provide strong support for short-term profitability during staggered production [3] Long-term Outlook - The year 2025 is identified as a crucial turning point for the cement industry, with head enterprises beginning to address excess production capacity [4] - By November, a total of 52.5 million tons of capacity has been replaced, while 83.59 million tons of capacity has been exited, with policies in 2025 aimed at regulating production order in the industry [4] - The actual effects of excess production governance are expected to become evident in 2026, leading to a more equitable market competition and increased industry concentration [4] - Jidong Cement is highlighted as a company to watch, as it holds a significant market position in northern regions and is expected to optimize its capacity structure and improve production efficiency in response to policy changes [4] - Tapai Group, with a strong market share in southern China, focuses on technological innovation and green development, positioning itself to excel in future market competition [4] Summary - Tianfeng Securities' report outlines the short-term and long-term development trajectories of the cement industry, emphasizing the strong support for bottom-line profitability from staggered production and the new opportunities presented by the 2025 policy window and the expected effects of excess production governance in 2026 [5]