记者丨陆秀 编辑丨江佩霞 "炒货已经比炒股还可怕了""这是薛记珠宝店，还是炒货店？"2026年春节临近，社交媒体上不少网友吐槽高端炒货。 1月28日，21世纪经济报道记者走访薛记炒货发现，瓜子、花生等基础现制炒货卖到23.8元/斤， 开心果、现烤腰果、开口松子等坚果类现 制炒货均接近100元/斤，手剥松子价格更是高达218元/斤。而截至目前，猪肉每斤均价在10元左 右 。 薛记炒货原味现制瓜子卖到2 3 . 8元/斤 一斤瓜子贵过猪肉、高端坚果斤价突破200元，从街边小摊到商场轻奢店，炒货凭什么卖这么贵？ 高端坚果逼近2 0 0元/斤 薛记炒货成"炒货刺客" 消费者对炒货的认知屡屡被刷新：坚果、果干、蜜饯等产品单价从几十元到几百元一斤并不罕见，网红款定价更是居高不下。 在社交媒体上， 薛记炒货因其定价被网友戏称为"薛记珠宝店""炒货界的爱马仕""炒货刺客"等 。截至1月28日，仅小红书平台，"薛记珠 宝"单个话题阅读量就突破3000万。 网友晒出结账单 21世纪经济报道记者实地走访发现，薛记炒货售价的确不菲， 多款蔬果类炒货价格突破100元/斤，多款去壳坚果炒货价格更是逼近200元/ 斤 。社交媒体平台上，有 ...

Group 1 - The core initiative of the "Salute to Urban Builders" public welfare project is to honor and support urban construction workers through donations and community engagement [1][4][6] - The project involves collaboration with 25 partners, including government departments and private enterprises, to provide 600 care packages and handwritten Spring Festival couplets to urban builders in Shanghai and Beijing [1][2][10] - The project aims to enhance the living conditions and well-being of urban builders through various activities, including the distribution of care packages and public welfare courses [7][10][12] Group 2 - The "Salute to Urban Builders" initiative is part of a broader commitment by the company to integrate financial services with social responsibility, emphasizing the importance of community support [6][17] - The event featured a "New Year Public Welfare Market" that included various cultural and practical services, such as traditional food, health checks, and haircuts, aimed at providing a warm and supportive environment for urban builders [13][14][18] - The company has a long-standing commitment to public welfare, having established the Shanghai Huatai Fund Public Welfare Foundation in 2010, and continues to innovate in its approach to community service [17]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing development of U.S.-China relations, with President Trump planning a visit to China in April, which is seen as beneficial for both nations [2] - The People's Bank of China is actively engaging with global financial leaders, indicating a focus on macroeconomic policies and trade relations [2] - The Chinese government is prioritizing the service sector in 2026, aiming to expand market access and promote digital trade [2] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is working on initiatives to optimize the layout of state-owned enterprises, with significant investment planned for R&D and asset growth [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of the photovoltaic industry and the need for regulatory measures to ensure healthy competition [2] Company Insights - TikTok has established a joint venture in the U.S. for data security, indicating a strategic move to enhance its operational transparency [5] - China National Petroleum Corporation has achieved large-scale production of high-end materials, reducing reliance on imports for strategic industries [5] - SpaceX is preparing for a significant IPO, aiming for a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, which reflects its growth potential in the commercial space sector [5] - China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation is focusing on enhancing its commercial launch capabilities, with ambitious goals for the next decade [5] Banking Sector Insights - The report indicates a slight increase in the proportion of active funds in the banking sector, with a total market value of 1.61 trillion yuan allocated to A-shares [6] - The concentration of holdings among the top five banks has decreased, with notable fluctuations in individual bank positions [7] - Northbound capital has seen a net reduction in bank stocks, with significant decreases in holdings for certain banks [8] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies aimed at improving credit conditions and stabilizing net interest margins [8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing trend of scale decline and strategy adjustments in the management of funds by Chen Tao, leading to a significant management transition [1][21]. - As of the end of Q4 2025, the total scale of the two funds managed by Chen Tao was approximately 3.666 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 900 million yuan from the end of Q3 2025 [2][22]. - This decline is not a one-time occurrence but has been a continuous trend since the second half of 2023, with the "Zhonggeng Value Pioneer" fund experiencing a peak scale of over 9 billion yuan in Q2 2023, followed by a significant drop in performance [3][23]. Group 2 - In Q4 2025, the "Zhonggeng Value Pioneer" fund saw a net redemption of approximately 490 million shares, reducing its scale from 3.2 billion yuan at the end of Q3 to 2.5 billion yuan [5][24]. - The "Zhonggeng Small Cap Value" fund also faced a decline, ending Q4 with a scale of about 1.1 billion yuan, down approximately 200 million yuan from Q3 [5][24]. - By the end of 2025, Chen Tao's management scale had significantly shrunk, indicating a clear reduction in management radius [6][24]. Group 3 - Despite maintaining a high stock position of over 90% in both funds, there was a notable shift in industry allocation, particularly a reduction in holdings in the liquor and aviation sectors due to weakening fundamentals [7][25]. - Chen Tao indicated that the decision to reduce exposure to liquor and aviation was driven by unexpected deterioration in industry fundamentals and increased uncertainty [27][28]. - The overall portfolio still reflects a bias towards "low valuation, low expectation" stocks, but the adjustments did not significantly alter this characteristic [28][29]. Group 4 - The top ten holdings of both funds showed a high degree of overlap, exceeding 90%, primarily in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, food, manufacturing, and certain technology sub-sectors [10][29]. - Despite the concentration in holdings, both funds underperformed their benchmarks, with "Zhonggeng Value Pioneer" achieving approximately 10% annual returns compared to over 27% for the benchmark [10][30]. - This suggests that the issues may lie more in stock selection and industry allocation effectiveness rather than a misalignment with index direction [12][30]. Group 5 - Chen Tao's investment framework remains focused on typical value investment logic, emphasizing low valuation, low expectations, and manageable fundamental risks while waiting for a reversal [13][31]. - However, the market's patience is waning as low valuations have not yet translated into profitability and stock performance, reflecting a broader challenge faced by many value-oriented funds in recent years [31][32]. - Following the quarterly report, Chen Tao was replaced as fund manager, with Han Yiping and Yin Le taking over the management of the "Zhonggeng Small Cap Value" fund [33][34].

投资建议：把握五条主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。1）具备价格弹性标的；2）饮料受益出行良好 景气度，重视低估值高股息；3）零食及食品原料成长标的；4）啤酒；5）调味品平稳、牧业产能去 化，餐供有望恢复。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，2025Q4食品饮料板块获配比例环比回落，细分来看白 酒、非白酒板块重仓环比下降，其他板块配比均呈环比回升，其中饮料乳品及休闲食品增幅居前。 2025Q4主动偏股类公募基金食品饮料重仓配置比例延续环比下行。从主动偏股类公募基金重仓配置比 例来看，2025Q4食品饮料重仓股配置比例环比-0.14pct至4.04%，位列各行业第九。其他前五获配板块 分别为电子、电力设备、通信、医药生物以及有色金属，对应2025Q4配置比例分别为21.47%（环 比-1.84pct）、9.87%（-0.32pct）、9.83%（+1.78pct）、9.16%（-1.92pct）及7.83%（+2.12pct）。 把握五条主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。1）具备价格弹性标的；2）饮料受益出行良好景气度，重 视低估值高股息；3）零食及食品原料成长标的；4）啤酒；5）调味品平稳、牧业产能去化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The allocation ratio of the food and beverage sector is expected to decline in Q4 2025, with a notable decrease in both the liquor and non-liquor segments, while other sectors such as beverages, dairy, and snacks show an increase in allocation [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Focus on five main investment lines: 1) Stocks with price elasticity; 2) Beverages benefiting from travel demand; prioritize low valuation and high dividend yields; 3) Growth stocks in snacks and food raw materials; 4) Beer; 5) Stable condiments and livestock capacity reduction, with a recovery expected in food service [2]. - The allocation ratio of actively managed equity public funds in the food and beverage sector decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 4.04%, ranking ninth among all sectors [2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - In Q4 2025, the allocation ratio for liquor stocks decreased by 0.29 percentage points to 2.92%, driven by declines in leading liquor companies such as Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu [3][4]. - Non-liquor segments, including food processing, beverage dairy, and snacks, saw an increase in allocation ratios, with notable gains in the dairy sector led by Yili and Mengniu, and in snacks led by companies like Wancheng Group and Ximai Foods [3][4]. - The condiment sector also experienced an increase in allocation, with significant rises in stocks like Angel Yeast and Zhongju High-tech, while Haitian Flavoring saw a decrease [4].

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The profits of industrial enterprises ended a three-year decline, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 0.6% in 2025, compared to a previous value of 0.1% [4] - December 2025 saw a significant improvement in profit year-on-year, rising by 18.4 percentage points to 5.3%, despite a revenue decline of approximately 3.2% [5][6] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises showed a recovery, with contributions from various factors indicating a positive trend in profitability [7] Group 2: Industry Trends and Recommendations - The heavy truck sales in 2025 exceeded one million units, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 27%, driven by policies encouraging vehicle replacement [59] - The domestic market for new energy heavy trucks saw explosive growth, with sales reaching 231,100 units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 182% [60] - The report highlights the potential for investment opportunities in the heavy truck sector, particularly with companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Foton Motor showing strong performance [62] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The food and beverage sector, particularly companies like Gan Yuan Foods, is expected to see significant growth in Q1 2026 due to seasonal stocking and favorable comparisons to low base figures [16] - The communication sector is poised for growth, with companies like Guanghui New Network benefiting from increased demand for data center services driven by AI developments [17] - The semiconductor industry, represented by companies like Zhongwei Company, is experiencing strong growth in specific segments, such as integrated circuit manufacturing, with year-on-year increases of 172.6% [7] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The report suggests a focus on technology and cyclical sectors, with recommendations for investments in industries such as military, media, AI applications, and renewable energy [10] - The potential for theme-based investments in 2026 is highlighted, with key themes including AI, embodied intelligence, nuclear fusion energy, quantum technology, and brain-computer interfaces [23][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting new themes over old ones to avoid value traps and to capitalize on emerging trends [24]

Macro Strategy - The IPCA model shows better application effects in the domestic credit bond market compared to the US market, with a Sharpe ratio consistently above 1.45 and above 2.2 from May to December 2025 [1][13] - The strategy exhibits asymmetric risk/reward characteristics, with 75% of sample dates showing positive excess credit returns, and a maximum excess return of 0.13% from January 2024 to December 2025 [1][13] - The practical operability of the strategy is strong, allowing for investment in bonds with similar risk characteristics even when specific bonds are not available in the secondary market [1][13] Fixed Income Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of key industries, including new pillar industries, future industries, traditional industry upgrades, infrastructure construction, green transformation, and consumer upgrades, which are expected to receive policy support and financing breakthroughs [2][14] - A total of 1,098 bond-issuing entities align with the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a total bond scale of approximately 10.8 trillion yuan, primarily rated AAA and concentrated in East and North China [2][14] - The participation of bond-issuing entities in the six key industries shows significant differentiation, with infrastructure and new pillar industries leading in both the number of issuers and bond scale [2][14] Industry Insights - The public utility sector is expected to benefit from deepened electricity reforms, with recommendations to focus on green electricity, thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and the valuation of photovoltaic and charging pile assets [7] - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to experience a spring consumption surge, particularly in snacks, dining, and seasonal beverages, with a positive outlook for Q1 2026 due to favorable market conditions [7] - Companies like KaiGe Precision Machinery and HeMai Co. are positioned to benefit from the growing demand in AI computing and energy storage, with projected profit growth in the coming years [9][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Ming Ming Hen Mang plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 28, becoming the first stock in the "bulk snack" sector, with a global offering of 14.1 million shares, expected to raise over HKD 3 billion, and a market capitalization of approximately HKD 50 billion [1][7] - The market response has been positive, with eight cornerstone investors subscribing a total of HKD 1.5 billion, including Tencent, Temasek, and BlackRock, and the latest subscription multiple exceeding 1500 times [1][8] Group 2 - Downstream growth is shifting from rapid expansion to high-quality growth, with traditional store types still having significant opening space, projected to reach nearly 50,000 stores by 2025, with a total potential of about 74,000 stores [2][9] - Profitability is expected to continue improving, with adjusted net margins for Ming Ming Hen Mang increasing from 2.3% to 3.9% from 2023 to the first three quarters of 2025, driven by reduced opening subsidies and category structure adjustments [2][13] - New store formats are supporting store expansion and single-store improvement, with both Ming Ming Hen Mang and Wan Chen planning to open discount supermarket formats by 2025, currently accounting for less than 20% of new store types [2][17] - The development of private label products is boosting revenue and gross margins, with both companies planning to increase their private label revenue share, currently in the single digits, compared to 20-30% for similar brands [2][19] Group 3 - Upstream opportunities are emerging as downstream stores expand into categories like dairy, baking, and frozen foods, benefiting related upstream supply chain companies, particularly mid-tier brands with significant revenue elasticity [3][24] - The focus on developing private label products is leading to market share differentiation among supply chain companies, with manufacturers that have strong product development and customization capabilities likely to gain market share [3][26] Group 4 - Investment recommendations highlight the positive outlook for the bulk snack industry, emphasizing the transition to high-quality growth and the potential for upstream supply chain companies to benefit from downstream category expansions and increased private label product shares [4][28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival in mid-February 2026 is expected to boost demand for leisure food products, as the low performance base in Q1 2026 will catalyze strong performance in the sector. The emphasis on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption by policies will further support this trend. Leading snack companies are expected to benefit from category and channel changes, with net profit margins likely to improve due to their large product strategies and cost advantages [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The leisure food sector is projected to experience a strong performance in Q1 2026 due to the Spring Festival, which is a peak consumption period for food and beverages. The demand for stocking up on products is expected to be released, leading to significant sales growth for snack companies [3] Company Focus - The upcoming IPO of Mingming Hen Mang Group is anticipated to reshape traditional retail with its bulk purchasing model, enhancing operational efficiency and rapid store expansion through a modern franchise system. This positive cycle in its business model is expected to create a strong competitive advantage [4] Recommended Stocks - **Weilong Delicious**: Expected to maintain rapid growth with new flavors in konjac products, and the potential for recovery in noodle products. The overseas market also presents significant opportunities [5] - **Ganyuan Food**: Anticipated recovery from operational difficulties, with positive trends across channels and significant elasticity in Q1 2026 due to the low base from H1 2025 [5] - **Yanjinpuzi**: Strong potential in sesame konjac products, with steady brand enhancement and ongoing expansion of distribution networks, leading to expected stable performance [5] - **Wancheng Group**: The IPO of Mingming Hen Mang is expected to increase market attention, with stable store expansion and potential for profit improvement due to scale effects [5]