国泰海通晨报 2026 年 02 月 24 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【宏观研究】：春节期间，特朗普关税被判定违法，以及美伊军事冲突风险升温对全球资产价 格带来扰动，原油与黄金均有所上涨。美国经济韧性仍存，通胀回落进展或将较为颠簸，部分联 储官员提及加息可能。未来仍需关注特朗普关税政策的不确定性扰动。 2、【策略研究】：中国经济工作的重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任务，内需复苏、物价回升 与地产企稳会推动经济预期上修。目前内需板块预期与交易出清，相信价值也会有春天。 3、【固定收益研究】：经济复苏节奏延续温和，呵护债市偏多环境，但需关注海外风险偏好回升 带来的扰动。 4、【纺织服装研究】纺织服装业：我们认为①截至 2.12 日的美棉周度出口放量、②2.19 日发布的 美国农业展望论坛明确新棉季全球供需收紧基调、③近期美国与东南亚国家关税互惠政策等多重 积极边际变化夯实美棉筑底并逐步打开中长期向上空间的趋势，持续重点推荐百隆东方、关注相 关标的天虹国际集团。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweix ...

今日早参 2026 年 2 月 24 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：美国高院驳回"特朗普关税"后的波折与推演 继美国国际贸易法院与联邦巡回上诉法院先后裁定"特朗普关税"违法后 （参见《法院裁决能阻止特朗普加征关税吗？》，2025/5/30），当地时间 2026 年 2 月 20 日（周五），美国最高法院判定特朗普依据《国际紧急经济 权力法》（IEEPA）征收的"对等关税"和"芬太尼关税"违法。如我们此前 预测，最高法院判决后，特朗普政府当日提出替代性关税政策，表示将依据 美国《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条在常规关税基础上对全球商品加征 10%的 关税，并很快次日在社交媒体 Truth Social 上表示将对部分国家关税上调至 15%，但未公布具体国家列表（参见《最高法院挑战"特朗普关税"后续如 何？》，2025/11/12）。然而，我们认为特朗普关税风波并不会由此平息，不 仅后续关税政策仍有变数，围绕已征收的大量关税返还的机制和体量也仍悬 而未决。IEEPA 关税被驳回彰显了美国"三权分立"体 ...

股 票 研 究 汽车行业周报（2025/2/6-2025/2/13） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 卢雨涵(研究助理) | 010-83939828 | luyuhan@gtht.com | S0880125100008 | 速腾聚创 25 年大幅减亏，特斯拉首辆 Cybercab 下线 [Table_Industry] 汽车 本报告导读： 近一周，申万汽车指数上涨 2%，新能源整车指数相对持平，汽车零部件指数上涨 2%，商用车指数上涨 4%。速腾聚创 25 年大幅减亏，特斯拉首辆 Cybercab下线。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Report] 相关报告 汽车《全新理想 L9 Livis引领线控底盘新阶段》 2026.02.08 汽车《AI 应用重要阵地，Robotaxi 还看中国》 2026.02.04 汽车《特斯拉加速 AI 转型，将发布 ...

Investment Highlights - The SW Auto Parts Index increased by 1.69% this week, ranking 3rd among SW Auto sectors, with a year-to-date increase of 4.94% [3][12] - The latest PE (TTM) for SW Auto Parts is at the 85.68% historical percentile, while the PB (LF) is at the 79.62% historical percentile [3][35] - The trading activity in the auto parts sector has shown a gradual increase since February [3][30] Robotics Sector Review - The Wande Robotics Index rose by 2.27% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 2.54%, outperforming the SW Auto Parts sector by 0.58% [4][12] - The latest PE (TTM) for the robotics sector is at the 73.90% percentile for the past year, and the PB (LF) is at the 78.31% percentile [4][46] - The trading heat in the robotics sector is at a low point since 2025 [4][40] Key Company Developments - Sensible Group will establish a joint venture in North America with Green Harmony for robotic joint modules [5] - Top Group forecasts 2025 revenue between 28.75 billion to 30.35 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.6 billion to 2.9 billion yuan [5] - Feilong Co. increased its investment in Longtai Company by 732 million yuan [5] - New Spring established a wholly-owned subsidiary in Shanghai [5] Top Performers of the Week - The top five gainers this week include: - Precision Forging Technology +28.98% - Sensible Group +17.05% - Naisite +16.22% - Yinlun Co. +7.73% - Changhua Group +7.34% [6][54] Major Events - The release of the world's first warehouse robot Gino 1 by Jizhi Jia [8] - Xiaomi open-sourced its first-generation robot VLA large model [8] - UBTECH and the humanoid robot innovation center launched the full-size research humanoid robot "Tiangong Walker DEX" [8] Investment Recommendations - For auto parts, focus on structural opportunities by selecting product-oriented companies and those entering high-value sectors to increase ASP, with a priority on companies expanding capacity in Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia [9] - For robotics, look for certainty in opportunities, especially with the anticipated release of Optimus V3 in Q1 2026, and monitor the order timeline and application deployment by domestic companies like Xiaopeng, Yuzhu, and Zhiyuan [9] - Recommended stocks based on EPS include: Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., Sensible Group, Junsheng Electronics, and Xingyuan Zhuomei, with New Spring as a focus [9] - Recommended stocks based on PE include: Top Group, Junsheng Electronics, Shuanghuan Transmission, Sensible Group, Yinlun Co., and Feilong Co., with a focus on Yapu Co. and Daimai Co. [9]

2月13日，A股市场震荡回调，沪指跌超1%，电池板块调整。截至14:45，同类规模领先的电池ETF汇添富（159796）跌近1%，呈现十字星，成交额近2亿 元，交投活跃，资金大举涌入，电池ETF汇添富（159796）昨日吸金超1亿元。 消息面上，2025年全球动力电池出货量达1495.1GWh，同比增长42.2%，增速较此前提升20.7个百分点，中国7家电池企业位列全球动力电池出货量前十。 【出口强劲：2025年海外市场延续高增长态势，中资厂商市占率进一步抬升】 交银国际表示，2025年海外动力电池市场延续高增长态势，中资厂商市占率进一步抬升。SNE Research数据显示，2025年全球动力电池装车量同比增长 31.7%至1,187GWh，中国以外市场装车量同比增长26.0%至463.3GWh。竞争格局方面，韩国三大厂（LG Energy Solution、Samsung SDI、SK On）合计市占 率同比下滑7.4ppts至36.3%，其中三星SDI装机量同比下降6.7%。相比之下，中国企业依托LFP技术路线持续放大成本优势，全球出货量前十厂商中中企占 比同比提升9.6ppts至47.2%。其中宁德时 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Weichuang Electric (688698), marking its first coverage [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on consolidating its main business while expanding overseas, strategically positioning itself in the robot-driven components market [5][6]. - The company aims to deepen industry demand and continuously promote globalization, with a strong emphasis on technological innovation and market expansion through partnerships [6]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 19.77 billion, 24.44 billion, and 31.08 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.88 billion, 3.46 billion, and 4.19 billion yuan [8][9]. Summary by Sections Business Development - The company is enhancing collaboration to drive technological innovation in robot-driven components, including establishing joint ventures in Thailand and other regions [6]. - It plans to implement a three-pronged strategy focusing on comprehensive product offerings, entering new markets, and efficient collaboration to enhance its product structure [6]. Global Expansion - The company is optimistic about overseas market potential, particularly in regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America, and is committed to expanding its market presence while solidifying existing markets [6]. Financial Forecast - The company anticipates revenue growth rates of 26%, 21%, 24%, and 27% for the years 2024 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 28%, 18%, 20%, and 21% respectively [8][9]. - Key financial metrics include projected earnings per share (EPS) of 1.14, 1.35, 1.62, and 1.96 yuan from 2024 to 2027, with a return on equity (ROE) expected to rise from 12% to 14% over the same period [8][9].

Company and Industry Summary Company: Silver Wheel Co., Ltd. (银轮股份) Key Points - **Order Growth**: Vertiv reported Q4 2025 orders of approximately $8.2 billion, significantly exceeding market expectations of $3.4 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 252% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 117% [1][2] - **Backlog Increase**: Orders for 2025 increased by 81% year-over-year, with backlog orders growing by 109%, reaching $15 billion [1][2] - **Demand Surge**: The demand for liquid cooling products from North American data center clients has surged, leading to a significant increase in company demand [2][3] - **Competitive Advantage**: The company emphasizes its competitive edge in liquid cooling CDU and heat exchanger products, with costs lower than foreign suppliers. The North American factory has achieved profitability [3] - **Future Growth**: The liquid cooling business segment is expected to maintain rapid growth over the next 2-3 years, with anticipated breakthroughs in 2026 for North American data center clients [3] - **Revenue and Profit Forecast**: The company maintains a revenue forecast of $18 billion and a profit of $1.2 billion for 2026, with a target market value of $60-70 billion, considering the growth potential of gas generators and liquid cooling [3][4] Industry: Electronics and PCB Key Points - **Price Increases**: There is a notable price increase in overseas electronic fabrics, with key players like Taiyo Yuden halting production of E-glass to focus on low Dk electronic fabrics [4] - **Supply Shortages**: The supply-demand gap for second-generation fabrics is projected to exceed 10%, while the gap for Q fabrics may reach over 15%, indicating a strong basis for price increases [5] - **High Inflation Impact**: The high inflation in AI hardware segments, including storage, electronic fabrics, and optical chips, is emphasized as a critical factor in the current market dynamics [5] - **Demand for High-End Chips**: The increasing demand for high-end chips, particularly from companies like NVIDIA and Google, is expected to further widen the supply-demand gap in critical segments such as CCL, fiberglass, and copper foil, leading to upward price pressures across the industry [5]

Company and Industry Summary Company: 银轮股份 (Yinlun Co., Ltd.) Key Points - **Focus on CDU Heat Exchangers**: The company is primarily targeting CDU heat exchangers and is fully engaging with North American and Taiwanese clients, with significant progress noted in securing orders from North American clients [2][4]. - **Upcoming Testing and Production Ramp-Up**: Testing and related work will commence after the holiday, with two Taiwanese client orders already secured. The company anticipates a production ramp-up by August 2026, projecting an annual revenue increase of 1 billion yuan [3][5]. - **Acquisition of Deep Blue**: The acquisition of Deep Blue is seen as a critical step in enhancing the company's electric control capabilities and overall machine performance. This acquisition complements the company's existing strengths in manufacturing stainless steel heat exchangers for automotive applications [5]. - **Strong Manufacturing and Control Synergy**: The combination of manufacturing and control technologies is expected to significantly enhance Yinlun's competitiveness in the market. The company has a long history in automotive thermal management, having entered the field in 1980 and accumulated extensive know-how in stainless steel plate heat exchangers [5]. - **Globalization Strategy**: Yinlun is committed to a global strategy, with Mexico serving as a core location for its North American and global production capacity. The company currently operates four factories in Mexico [5]. - **New Mexico Base**: The establishment of a new base in Mexico is expected to effectively match the mass production needs of overseas clients, greatly improving the company's order acquisition capabilities and efficiency [6]. - **Investment Recommendation**: The company is viewed as reaching an important inflection point by entering the supply chains of four major North American AI clients. The liquid cooling business is expected to enter a phase of order acquisition, leading to an upward revision of the target market value from 50 billion yuan to 100 billion yuan [7]. Additional Important Content - **Historical Context**: The company has a long-standing presence in the automotive thermal management sector, which provides a solid foundation for its current and future operations [5]. - **Technological Advancements**: The integration of advanced control solutions from Deep Blue is highlighted as a key factor in enhancing product offerings and market competitiveness [5]. - **Market Positioning**: The focus on North American and Taiwanese markets indicates a strategic alignment with regions that are likely to drive future growth in the automotive and AI sectors [2][4].

Core Insights - The report identifies liquid cooling as a strategic investment opportunity, potentially replicating the success of optical modules and PCBs, with strong growth prospects driven by AI computing needs and stringent energy efficiency standards [2][3] - Liquid cooling is characterized by three main features: strong growth, complete narrative, and favorable odds, indicating a favorable market environment for investment [2] - The industry is transitioning from speculative hype to a high-growth phase with confirmed orders, as evidenced by significant order increases from key suppliers like Vidi Technology [3] Industry Trends - The liquid cooling industry is entering a high-growth phase with a 252% year-over-year increase in organic orders reported by Vidi Technology, highlighting strong market demand [3] - Major tech companies like NVIDIA and Google are adopting liquid cooling as a mandatory standard for their next-generation platforms, indicating a shift from optional to essential technology in AI computing [3] - The industry is witnessing a wave of mergers and acquisitions, with companies like Liying Intelligent Manufacturing acquiring liquid cooling suppliers to secure positions in the AI server supply chain [3] Liquid Cooling Industry Chain - The liquid cooling industry chain consists of three main segments: upstream components, midstream system integration and manufacturing, and downstream applications [4] - Upstream includes key technologies and components such as cooling fluids and CDU, which have high technical barriers and value [4] - Midstream integrates upstream components to provide complete liquid cooling server solutions, with technical integration capabilities as a core barrier [4] - Downstream focuses on high-performance data center operators and industry users driving the large-scale adoption of liquid cooling [4]

Core Viewpoint - The battery sector continues to show strong performance, driven by a combination of robust demand, capacity utilization, and profitability recovery, alongside advancements in solid-state battery technology [2][3]. Group 1: Demand Dynamics - Downstream demand has exceeded expectations, with the global electric vehicle (EV) sales projected to reach 23.54 million units by 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.1%, with China accounting for over 70% of this market [4]. - The energy storage sector is expected to see explosive growth, with global energy storage battery shipments projected to reach 640 GWh by 2025, representing a staggering year-on-year increase of 82.9% [4]. - Major Chinese battery manufacturers reported a production increase of over 45% year-on-year in January and February, significantly surpassing previous forecasts of less than 30% growth for the year [4]. Group 2: Supply and Pricing Dynamics - The supply-demand landscape in the lithium battery industry has fundamentally shifted, moving from a phase of oversupply and profit decline to one of recovery and price increases starting June 2025 [5]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate has risen since September, driven by strong demand from downstream battery cell manufacturers and improved capacity utilization in the materials sector [5]. - Recent earnings forecasts from several lithium material companies indicate substantial growth in Q4 2025, confirming the industry's transition from a "cyclical bottom" to an "upward performance phase" [5]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing accelerated industrialization, with significant developments such as the mass production of dry electrode technology and the first international output of domestic dry process technology [6]. - The battery ETF (561910) closely tracks the battery theme index, which is strategically positioned to benefit from the current industrial cycle, with 56% exposure to energy storage and over 45% to solid-state battery concepts [6]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include leading companies across various segments of the battery supply chain, indicating a strong focus on industry leaders [6].