Core Viewpoint - ASML warns that it may not achieve growth in 2026 despite exceeding expectations for Q2 revenue and profit [2][4] Financial and Performance Outlook - ASML expects Q3 revenue to be between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, lower than the market expectation of €8.3 billion [3] - The company has narrowed its 2025 full-year net sales growth forecast to 15%, implying revenue of approximately €32.5 billion [3] 2026 Outlook - ASML's CEO Christophe Fouquet expresses uncertainty about the 2026 outlook due to increasing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, despite strong fundamentals from AI customers [4] Q2 Performance - For Q2, ASML reported net sales of €7.7 billion (approximately $8.95 billion), exceeding the expected €7.52 billion, and net profit of €2.29 billion, surpassing the forecast of €2.04 billion [5] - The company recorded actual net orders of €5.5 billion for the April to June period, compared to the expected €4.19 billion [6] AI Demand Impact - AI-related chip demand is a significant driver for EUV equipment, which is essential for manufacturing advanced chips for companies like Apple and Nvidia [7][8] - ASML has launched the next generation of EUV equipment, High NA tools, which are crucial for future growth plans, with each unit priced over $400 million [8]

Group 1 - The Central Urban Work Conference, held for the first time in ten years, emphasizes urban renewal as a key focus for future urban development in China [2] - The conference indicates a shift from rapid urbanization to stable development, prioritizing quality over quantity in urban growth [2] - The meeting highlights the need for a human-centered approach, efficient development, and coordinated governance in urban planning [2] Group 2 - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, the largest increase since February, indicating inflationary pressures [3][4] - Analysts suggest that recent tariff increases on imports are a significant factor driving up prices, with expectations of continued inflationary pressure in the coming months [3] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.9% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [4] Group 3 - A total of 1,494 A-share companies have released mid-year profit forecasts, with 417 companies expecting a net profit growth of over 100% [9] - Among these, five companies anticipate net profits exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Muyuan Foods projecting the highest growth rate of 973.39% due to increased pig sales and lower costs [9] - The main drivers for the positive earnings outlook include rising revenues, cost reduction, and seizing market opportunities [9] Group 4 - The local asset management companies (AMCs) are subject to new regulatory measures aimed at preventing business expansion and addressing risks such as false reporting [10] - The new regulations clarify the operational scope and risk management requirements for local AMCs, promoting sustainable development in the asset management sector [10] Group 5 - The white liquor industry is undergoing significant value restructuring, with major companies like Shunxin Agriculture and Jiu Gui Jiu reporting disappointing mid-year earnings forecasts [15] - This trend suggests a departure from the previous "easy profit" era, indicating challenges ahead for the industry [15] Group 6 - Bubble Mart, known for its trendy IP LABUBU, anticipates a revenue increase of at least 200% for the first half of 2025, potentially exceeding 13.5 billion yuan [16] - The company also expects a profit growth of over 350%, reflecting strong market demand and successful product strategies [16] Group 7 - Gold mining companies are expected to report positive earnings due to rising gold prices and capacity expansion, with some projecting profit increases of up to 141% [17] - The solar energy sector continues to face challenges, although some companies have managed to reduce losses or achieve profitability in the second quarter [17] Group 8 - Semiconductor companies are experiencing positive mid-year earnings forecasts, driven by growth in AI and automotive electronics sectors [18] - The gaming industry is also seeing significant stock performance, with related stocks showing impressive gains this year [18]

Tesla's AI Development (Dojo) - Tesla's Dojo 2 supercomputer is expected to be in mass production by the end of 2025, utilizing TSMC's InFO-SoW packaging technology to enhance AI training capabilities [1] - Dojo 2's computing power reaches 9 petaflops, significantly exceeding traditional supercomputer performance, achieved through integrating 25 dies into a single silicon wafer [1] - TSMC plans to introduce SoW-X technology in 2027, potentially increasing computing power by 40 times, further advancing Tesla's FSD and potentially enabling wafer-level systems comparable to data center server racks [1] - Dojo 2's mass production allows Tesla to reduce reliance on Nvidia for AI chips, potentially saving costs and accelerating the development of Level 5 autonomous driving [1] - Analysts predict Dojo 2 could add $50 billion to Tesla's market capitalization by driving Robotaxi and software sales [1] Tesla's Market Expansion and Sales - Tesla has officially opened its first showroom in Mumbai, India, with Model Y RWD starting at $69,700 (approximately 5989000 Indian Rupees) and Long Range RWD at $79,000 (approximately 6789000 Indian Rupees), including a free Wall Connector [2] - Tesla is lobbying the Indian government to reduce import taxes from 70%-100% to around 10% to lower vehicle prices and potentially import vehicles from Giga Berlin [2] - Tesla delivered 12,300 vehicles in China during the week of July 7-13, marking the highest Q3 second-week record, indicating strong demand, especially for the new Model Y [2] - In 2024, Tesla's sales in China reached 657,102 vehicles, accounting for 3973% of its global deliveries [2] Other Automotive Industry News - Chery faces scrutiny over approximately $53 million (380 million RMB) in government subsidies for environmental vehicles, with 7,663 vehicles out of 21,725 total vehicles being disqualified due to missing sales records or failure to meet mileage requirements between 2015 and 2020 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang announced significant developments for the Chinese market, including the approval for the H20 chip to be shipped to China and the launch of the new RTXPro GPU, which has led to a surge in related stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong markets [1][5][6]. Group 1: Nvidia's Market Impact - The announcement of the H20 chip's approval has resulted in a collective rise in A-share sectors related to Nvidia, including CPO, server, and computing power leasing, with notable gains in key companies like Yizhongtian and Xinyisheng [1][17]. - Nvidia's stock in the US market also saw a pre-market increase of over 5.19%, reflecting strong investor sentiment following the news [8]. - The approval of the H20 chip is seen as a significant breakthrough, alleviating previous restrictions and indicating a potential recovery in Nvidia's market share in China, which had dropped from 95% to 50% due to export controls [11][14]. Group 2: Broader Market Reactions - The AI sector in Hong Kong experienced substantial gains, with indices for cloud computing and AI models rising over 3%, and major companies like Alibaba seeing a rare increase of 6.7% [3][4]. - The positive sentiment from Nvidia's announcements has also influenced other semiconductor companies, with stocks like TSMC and Broadcom showing notable increases in after-hours trading [14]. Group 3: Domestic AI Industry Benefits - The resumption of H20 chip supply is expected to significantly benefit domestic companies involved in server manufacturing, data center construction, and related sectors, addressing the current shortage of computing power in China [17][21]. - Companies like Kingsoft Cloud and WanGuo Data have reported substantial stock price increases, attributed to the easing of chip shortages and rising demand for data center capabilities [18]. - The demand for AI chips remains robust, with major Chinese tech firms reportedly placing orders exceeding $16 billion for H20 server chips, indicating a strong market outlook for Nvidia's products [23]. Group 4: Long-term Implications for Domestic Chip Industry - The revival of H20 supply is viewed as a "shot in the arm" for the Chinese AI industry, providing immediate relief to the computing power shortage and benefiting various sectors including server manufacturing and cloud computing [27][28]. - While the resumption of supply is a positive development, it also presents a challenge for domestic chip manufacturers to enhance their technology and ecosystem to compete effectively with Nvidia [29][30].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The growth of social financing in June exceeded expectations, primarily driven by net financing from government bonds and an increase in short-term loans, with new RMB loans reaching 2.24 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 2.02 trillion yuan [2][3][8] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing rebounded to 8.9% in June from 8.7% in May, with a month-on-month annualized growth rate increasing to 8.3% [2][3] - The M2 money supply growth rate rose to 8.3% in June, reflecting a low base effect, while M1 growth increased to 4.6% [2][3] Group 2: Fixed Income and Real Estate - The real estate market showed mixed performance, with new home sales slightly recovering while second-hand home sales remained stable, indicating a need for price stabilization [4] - The construction sector saw improved cement demand relative to supply, while black commodity prices rose due to anti-involution policies [4] - The liquidity in the market remained balanced but slightly loose, with the average DR007 rate declining to 1.47% [4] Group 3: Securities and Investment Opportunities - Major brokerages reported significant profit growth in the first half of the year, with large brokerages seeing net profit growth rates between 50% and 80% [6] - The public fund industry experienced a steady increase in scale, with total assets reaching 32.33 trillion yuan by the end of June, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.95% [7] - The ETF market saw a 74% year-on-year growth in assets, with significant contributions from various product categories [9] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Satellite Chemical is positioned for growth with a cost advantage in ethylene production and a focus on high-end materials, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating [15] - Three Trees is expected to benefit from a shift in domestic market demand towards retail, with a target price of 53.19 yuan and a "Buy" rating [16] - Quartz Co. is recognized as a leader in high-purity quartz materials, with a target price of 37.3 yuan and an "Accumulate" rating [19]

Core Insights - TSMC is expected to report a record quarterly net profit of 379.41 billion NTD (approximately 12.91 billion USD) for Q2, reflecting a 53% increase year-over-year from 247.84 billion NTD [1] - Revenue for Q2 is projected to grow by 39% to 933.8 billion NTD (approximately 31.77 billion USD), surpassing the company's guidance of 28.4 billion to 29.2 billion USD [1] - Analysts anticipate TSMC may achieve around 20% revenue growth by 2025, driven by strong performance in the first half of the year [1] Revenue and Profit Expectations - The consensus among 25 analysts indicates a significant increase in net profit, marking the highest quarterly profit in TSMC's history [1] - The revenue growth is attributed to robust demand for advanced processes and AI-related orders, which are expected to be key focus areas for investors [1] Guidance and Market Conditions - Despite the strong financial performance, Citigroup predicts that TSMC will not raise its guidance due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs and pre-tariff activities [1] - The visibility of AI orders over the next two to three years is highlighted as a critical factor for investors to monitor [1]

Group 1 - Elon Musk announced on Twitter that he has just left Tesla's design studio and promised an "epic shock" presentation by the end of the year [3] - AstraZeneca reported that its experimental hypertension drug Baxdrostat effectively lowers blood pressure in patients with resistant or poorly controlled hypertension [3] - Google has agreed to pay approximately $2.4 billion to acquire technology licensing from AI coding startup Windsurf and has hired its CEO and some employees [3] Group 2 - The European Union has postponed countermeasures against U.S. tariffs until early August [4] - Bitcoin has surpassed $120,000 per coin, reaching a new all-time high and touching $123,000 during the day [4] - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will hold a media briefing in Beijing [4] - Pony.ai has launched mass production and road testing of its seventh-generation autonomous Robotaxi [4] - Meta has acquired a startup focused on AI voice technology, Play AI [4] - Lloyds Bank is collaborating with cryptocurrency exchange Archax to allow digital assets as collateral for foreign exchange contracts [4] - The China State Administration for Market Regulation has approved Synopsys' $35 billion acquisition of ANSYS with additional restrictive conditions [4] - TSMC plans to initiate vendor selection for its P3 plant in Arizona this quarter, aiming to complete the bidding process by the end of the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - Intel's Nova Lake-S CPU has begun production using TSMC's advanced 2nm technology, with an expected market launch in Q3 2026 [1] Group 1: Production and Technology - Intel has officially started the production of at least one chip utilizing TSMC's 2nm technology, which provides production flexibility by combining Intel's 18A process with TSMC's N2 node [1] - This production strategy may help avoid delays or shortages that could arise from Intel's own manufacturing limitations [1] Group 2: Processor Architecture - The Nova Lake-S processor features a complex architecture with a total of 52 cores, including 16 high-performance cores, 32 efficiency-focused cores, and 4 additional cores optimized for ultra-low power [1] - It integrates an advanced memory controller supporting speeds of up to 8,800 MT/s, enhancing overall performance [1] - Graphics functions will be managed by the Xe3 "Celestial" processor, while media decoding and display tasks will be handled by the Xe4 "Druid," emphasizing the distribution of various functional roles across subsystems [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronic sector, indicating a gradual recovery in demand and price stabilization, recommending a slow accumulation of positions in the market [5][6]. Core Insights - The electronic sector is experiencing a mild recovery, driven by strong downstream demand from AIOT and accelerated product penetration by companies like Lexin Technology and Rockchip, which are expected to report impressive half-year results [5][6]. - The release of the multi-modal model Grok 4 by xAI has significantly enhanced reasoning capabilities, potentially opening new application scenarios [5][11]. - The report highlights four main investment themes: AIOT, AI-driven technologies, equipment materials, and consumer electronics [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes that the semiconductor sector is entering a period of intensive earnings forecasts, with companies like Lexin Technology and Rockchip expected to show substantial revenue growth due to ongoing demand in AIOT and other emerging fields [5][6]. Company Performance - Lexin Technology anticipates a revenue of CNY 1.22-1.25 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33%-36%, with net profit expected to rise by 65%-78% [5][17]. - Rockchip expects to achieve approximately CNY 2.045 billion in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 64%, with net profit projected to increase by 185%-195% [5][17]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the electronic industry outperformed the broader market, with the Shenzhen and Shanghai 300 Index rising by 0.82% and the Shenwan Electronics Index increasing by 0.93% [19][21]. - The semiconductor sub-sector showed a positive trend, with a 1.07% increase in semiconductor stocks [21][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from strong domestic and international demand in the AIOT sector, such as Lexin Technology and Rockchip [5][6]. - It also suggests monitoring AI innovation-driven sectors, including computing chips and optical devices, as well as upstream supply chain components [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's upcoming earnings call on Thursday is highly anticipated, with foreign investors focusing on five key topics: the impact of the New Taiwan Dollar appreciation on operations, potential changes in capital expenditures for the year, the status of advanced process and packaging capacity, the outlook for artificial intelligence (AI), and the effects of the "Inflation Reduction Act" [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Impact - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar is a major concern for investors, particularly regarding its impact on TSMC's fundamentals. Morgan Stanley estimates that a 10% appreciation in Q2 will reduce TSMC's gross margin by over 3%, lowering the expected gross margin for the second half of the year from 58%-59% to 55%-56% [1]. - Morgan Stanley has also revised TSMC's earnings per share (EPS) estimates down by 6% and 12% for this year and next, resulting in new EPS figures of NT$55.01 and NT$64.61, respectively [1]. Group 2: Capital Expenditures - Goldman Sachs anticipates no major surprises in TSMC's earnings call regarding capital expenditures, maintaining a target range of USD 38 billion to 42 billion for the year and a projected revenue growth of 28.7% [2]. - The company is expected to maintain its USD revenue growth target of 20% year-over-year [2]. Group 3: Advanced Process and AI Outlook - In terms of advanced processes, Goldman Sachs predicts that TSMC's pricing for processes below 5nm will increase by 3% annually, while CoWoS packaging prices will rise by 5%. The demand for 2nm processes in smartphones may exceed expectations, driving growth for TSMC next year [2]. - Citigroup forecasts that GPUs will continue to dominate the AI market, with ASICs also showing growth. Starting in the second half of 2026, AI chips are expected to transition to 3nm processes, leading to significant increases in average selling prices and enhanced computing power [2]. - JPMorgan notes that TSMC's fundamental demand momentum is more optimistic compared to three months ago, driven by strong AI demand and limited reductions in Apple orders, projecting a 29% year-over-year revenue growth for TSMC this year [2]. Group 4: Inflation Reduction Act - Morgan Stanley believes that the "Inflation Reduction Act" will increase semiconductor tax credits from 25% to 35%, benefiting TSMC, which qualifies for this incentive. Additionally, TSMC's commitment to investing in U.S. fabs may enhance its chances of obtaining tariff exemptions, thereby alleviating profit pressures from U.S. expansion [3].