历经十余年理论探索、试点落地与体系升级，数字人民币在2026年迎来关键跨越。 随着中国人民银行《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和相关金融基础设施建设的行动方案》 （下称《行动方案》）正式实施，新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生态体系全面落 地，定位从现金（M0）的数字化替代，拓展至覆盖M1、M2范畴，完成从现金型1.0到存款货币型2.0的 时代跃升。 这场核心变革，不仅理顺了央行与商业银行的权责关系，更是凭借混合式架构的独特优势、双层运营体 系的制度创新与跨境应用的先行探索，为全球中央银行数字货币（CBDC）发展提供了可借鉴的中国样 本。 升级并非另起炉灶 依托这一技术架构，数字人民币实现了全流程可追溯。数字钱包间的转账伴随着数字人民币加密币串的 直接转移。一位熟悉数字人民币的业内专家表示："币串到哪了？发了多少？实时都可反馈到央行，从 宏观数据上来讲，可以拿到实时的存款数据，这和原来的银行存款不一样。" 数字人民币2.0并非另起炉灶。 "数字人民币从1.0进入2.0时代不是重新开始，更不是改换赛道，而是保留了前期试点的核心成功要 素。"中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛认为，其独创的"中央银行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index (970064) closed at 1740.66 points, down 0.25%, with a trading volume of 37.125 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.46% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - On the day, 31 constituent stocks rose, with North New Building Materials leading with a 4.99% increase, while 17 stocks fell, with Shanjin International leading the decline at 2.07% [1] - The index's top ten constituent stocks include: - BOE Technology Group (sz000725) with a weight of 9.45%, closing at 4.40 yuan, down 1.35% [1] - Wuliangye Yibin (sz000858) with a weight of 9.34%, closing at 102.76 yuan, down 0.28% [1] - Hikvision (sz002415) with a weight of 7.48%, closing at 32.09 yuan, down 1.56% [1] - XCMG Machinery (sz000425) with a weight of 6.90%, closing at 10.86 yuan, down 1.54% [1] - Weichai Power (sz000338) with a weight of 6.24%, closing at 22.36 yuan, down 0.89% [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the index's constituent stocks totaled 872 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.149 billion yuan [1] - Detailed capital flow for selected stocks includes: - Yuexiu Capital (000987) with a main fund net inflow of 107 million yuan, but retail outflows of 54.4 million yuan [2] - Huazhong Steel (000932) with a main fund net inflow of 85.6 million yuan, but retail outflows of 33.9 million yuan [2] - Yun Aluminum (000807) with a main fund net inflow of 54.8 million yuan, but retail outflows of 68.3 million yuan [2]

2025年1月22日凌晨，张坤的四季报准时上网，一如既往、不差分毫，恰如他始终如一的投资风格。 但本季度的观点有了更多的"新"内容。 其一、这是近十年来，张坤管理的产品首次在上证指数4100点以上"发声"，面对过去两年间1000点的涨幅和高度分化的行情表现，张坤的看法和应对颇引 人关注。 其二、这是外界印象中，张坤首次提及AI和AI泡沫论，他不仅坦率的讲出了自己的看法，而且也藉由价值投资的逻辑推演，并点评了部分中国企业在AI 大潮中的表现。 其三、这也是张坤罕见的从增量和存量角度分析了未来我们所在国家的经济、消费、房地产等关键要素的走向，很多判断和论述也颇有新意。 当市场在交易当下的热点时，张坤在思考和下注未来的"国运"。 总之，张坤这一季的季报，不容错过。 中期经济增速不会低 经历了市场的回暖后，场内机构观点在2026年初明显趋暖，这也是张坤在过去几个季度里始终坚持、相信并重申的。 但他看的更加长远，张坤在本季报里展示了他对中国未来增速和增长空间的"大级别趋势的预判"。 他说，按照国家"十五五"规划，我国目标在 2035 年人均 GDP 达到中等发达国家水平。而即使以 2024 年国际货币基金组织认定的发达 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong stocks in the consumer sector experienced a significant rise, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer 50 ETF (159268) increasing by 1.59% and a total trading volume exceeding 62 million HKD, highlighting strong investor interest [1] - Pop Mart repurchased 500,000 shares for 96.49 million HKD, marking its second buyback within the week, with a total repurchase amount nearing 350 million HKD [1] - The A-share market showed a slight correction, with the Consumer ETF (159928) declining by 0.39% and a trading volume surpassing 500 million HKD, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [2] Group 2 - Bohai Securities noted that high-level meetings are focusing on accelerating the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, with policies being introduced to support new business models and scenarios, particularly in sports events and IP-related consumption [3] - Galaxy Securities highlighted that the optimization of holiday arrangements in 2026 is expected to significantly boost service consumption, with an increase in holiday days likely to enhance demand in tourism and dining sectors [4] - The Consumer ETF (159928) is characterized by its resilience across economic cycles, with the top ten constituent stocks accounting for over 68.55% of its weight, including major players in the liquor and agriculture sectors [5] Group 3 - The top holdings in the Consumer ETF include leading liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, which together represent a significant portion of the ETF's weight, indicating a strong focus on essential consumer goods [6] - The Consumer 50 ETF (159268) is positioned as an efficient investment choice for the Hong Kong consumer sector, supporting T+0 trading and not occupying QDII quotas, appealing to investors targeting the new consumption trends among Generation Z [6]

Group 1 - Several public funds have reduced their holdings in liquor stocks, particularly in high-end brands like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, with reductions of 8.08% and 5.14% respectively [2] - The liquor sector experienced a cumulative decline of 11.5% in Q4 2025, contrasting with the overall bullish market, which has contributed to the decision of funds to decrease their positions [2] - The fundamental performance of the liquor industry is also underwhelming, with many companies issuing profit warnings for 2025 [3] Group 2 - Major liquor companies are forecasting significant declines in net profits, with Shui Jing Fang expected to see a 71% drop and Kuozi Jiao anticipating at least a 50% decrease [3] - The ongoing decline in the liquor sector is attributed to multiple factors, including supply-demand imbalances and changes in consumer behavior, indicating a shift from irrational exuberance to a focus on intrinsic value [3] - The consumer sector remains under pressure, with domestic demand facing challenges compared to export-oriented companies, as highlighted by Zhang Kun's analysis [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Zhang Kun's insights from his quarterly report, highlighting his long-term optimistic outlook on China's economic growth and the potential impact of AI on investment opportunities [6][9][10]. Economic Growth Predictions - Zhang Kun emphasizes that China's GDP per capita needs to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.27% to reach the level of a moderately developed country by 2035, which is higher than the expected global GDP growth rate [9]. - He believes that the economic growth in the coming years will not be low, driven by domestic demand and consumption [10]. Real Estate Market Insights - Zhang Kun suggests that the decline in housing prices in major cities is likely nearing its end, influenced by low-risk interest rates and potential policy support [12]. - He notes that the negative impact of declining wealth on consumer sentiment may improve in the future [13]. Consumer Living Standards - He predicts significant improvements in the living standards and social security levels of the population over the next decade, narrowing the gap with developed countries [14]. - Zhang Kun expresses confidence that the government will prioritize consumption and domestic demand in its policies [15]. AI Industry Perspective - Zhang Kun discusses the importance of a strong domestic market for technological innovation, citing the subscription revenue from AI models as a crucial income source for companies [16]. - He addresses the "AI bubble" debate, asserting that subscription revenues bolster investor confidence in AI companies [17]. Investment Strategy - The article outlines Zhang Kun's stable investment strategy, maintaining positions in high-quality stocks, particularly in the liquor and technology sectors [22]. - Specific stock adjustments include increasing holdings in Tencent, Moutai, and Wuliangye while reducing positions in Alibaba and JD Health [23].

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000596 | 古井贡酒 | 127.03 | -1.22% | 3.32万 | 4.25 Z | | 603369 | 今世缘 | 33.91 | -0.91% | 7.36万 | 2.51亿 | | 615009 | 贵州茅台 | 1340.06 | -0.81% | 5.90万 | 79.62亿 | | 000568 | 泸州老窖 | 112.35 | -0.73% | 8.24万 | 9.30亿 | | 616809 | 金徽酒 | 19.87 | -0.50% | 3.57万 | 7121.10万 | | 600779 | 水井坊 | 38.75 | -0.46% | 3.75万 | 1.45亿 | | 600702 | 舍得酒业 | 54.44 | -0.33% | 4.65万 | 2.53亿 | | 603198 | 迎驾贡酒 | 38.84 | -0.31% | 3.33万 | 1.29亿 | | 000858 | 五粮液 | 1 ...

北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）1月22日尾盘，沪指4122.58点上涨0.14%。白酒板块2222.40点收盘 上涨0.84%，其中12只白酒股下跌，贵州茅台1340.06元/股收盘。 从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1340.06元/股，下跌0.81%；五粮液收盘价达102.76元/股，下跌0.28%； 山西汾酒收盘价166.63元/股，下跌0.22%；泸州老窖收盘价达112.35元/股，下跌0.73%；洋河股份收盘 价达63.52元/股，上涨0.54%。 招商证券在其研报中指出，2025年第三季度白酒行业营收、归母净利润、现金回款分别为787亿元、280 亿元、839亿元，同比-18.4%、-22.2%、-26.7%。招商证券认为，上市公司报表层面加速出清，环比 2025年二季度下滑加速，现金回款下滑幅度大于收入。当下白酒行业已经进入到"企业煎熬期"的中程， 报表承压已体现了4个季度，产业层面也在加速出清。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Kun, a well-known fund manager, has disclosed the latest holdings and layout views of his four funds, indicating a reduction in management scale despite positive performance over the past year [1][3] Fund Performance - The four funds managed by Zhang Kun reported respective increases of 6.86%, 8.46%, 11.75%, and 41.87% in 2025 [3] - The total management scale of Zhang Kun's funds decreased to approximately 48.38 billion yuan, a decline of 14.43% from the previous quarter and 17.91% from the end of 2024 [3] Stock Holdings - The funds slightly increased their equity investment ratios by 1% to 3% in Q4 2025 [3] - Major reductions were observed in holdings of leading liquor stocks such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, with a reduction of around 5% in Q4 compared to a 10% reduction in Q3 [3][4] Sector Adjustments - Significant reductions were also noted in holdings of JD Health and Focus Media, with some funds reducing JD Health shares by approximately 50% [4] - The funds adjusted their sector allocations, maintaining positions in companies with strong business models and competitive advantages while reducing exposure in sectors like real estate, pharmaceuticals, and computing [5][6] Real Estate Market Outlook - Zhang Kun expressed that the decline in housing prices in major cities is likely nearing its end, influenced by low-risk interest rates and potential policy support [7][8] - The negative impact of declining housing prices on consumer wealth and spending is expected to improve, leading to a potential increase in consumer willingness to spend [7][8] Consumer Market Insights - The domestic consumption has been weak in recent years, but long-term projections suggest significant improvements in living standards and social security levels over the next decade [7][8] - The growth rate of per capita GDP in China is expected to exceed the global average, supporting a stronger domestic demand environment [7][8] AI and Innovation - A strong domestic market is seen as crucial for promoting technological innovation, with the potential for domestic companies to attract global resources and talent [9] - Confidence remains high in the business models and cash flow capabilities of companies within the fund's portfolio, despite concerns about market conditions [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strategic adjustments made by prominent fund managers at E Fund in their investment portfolios for Q4 2025, focusing on sectors like AI, healthcare, consumer goods, and technology [2][4][6][10] Group 2 - Zhang Kun adjusted the structure of investments in the healthcare, consumer, and technology sectors while maintaining a stable position in top holdings, which include Tencent Holdings, Kweichow Moutai, and Alibaba-W [4][5] - Zhang Kun expressed confidence in the improvement of living standards and social security in China over the next decade, suggesting a narrowing gap with developed countries [4] - The AI wave is seen as a significant driver for innovation, with strong domestic demand expected to attract global resources and talent [4][5] Group 3 - Chen Hao focused heavily on AI-related sectors, increasing allocations in power equipment, new energy, non-bank financials, and chemicals, which yielded positive returns [7][8] - Chen Hao anticipates a transition of the AI industry from an acceleration phase in 2025 to a stable growth phase in 2026, emphasizing the importance of structural opportunities and the integration of AI with local applications [7][8] Group 4 - Xiao Nan reduced allocations in high-end and sub-high-end liquor sectors while increasing investments in the livestock industry, anticipating inflation-driven cost increases over the next two years [10] - The top holdings in Xiao Nan's consumer sector fund remained unchanged, including Kweichow Moutai and Midea Group [10]