上次白银，圈外人说币圈接盘做指标，我是不信的这次海力士 + 三星，昨天各个群 fomo 今天就回调，我有点害怕了 ...

编辑|金冥羽陈俊杰杜波校对|许绍航 2月26日，三星召开Galaxy全球新品发布会，交出了开年旗舰答卷——Galaxy S26系列。作为2026年手 机圈的第一波重头戏，三星此次有创新也有"舍弃"：新的内置防偷窥屏、仅给"顶配"上16GB运行内 存、更多的AI功能以及一个关键信号：涨价。 在业内看来，在手机内存及存储芯片价格接连上涨且未见放缓的背景下，2026年智能手机全面涨价已是 必然趋势。至于具体价格是否如业界所传的在1000元至3000元的价位段，目前未有厂家给出回应，仍有 待观察。推出防窥屏和更多AI功能友商：只实现"豆包AI手机"的局部能力 根据起售价，S26标准版预约起售价为6999元/台，S26+预约起售价为7999元/台，超大杯S26Ultra预约起 售价为9999元/台。其中，标准版和+版起售价相比上代上涨了1000元/台，超大杯起售价上涨了300元/ 台。近千元的涨幅引发了不少网友的热议。存储芯片成本持续攀升2026或将成为智能手机"涨价年" 春节后的首个大厂高端旗舰机正式亮相。 2月26日，三星电子正式发布旗下第三代AI手机Galaxy S26系列。从外观上看，据部分已经拿到新机的 测评 ...

当 AI 开始寻找自己的形状，有些选择出人意料。 两家公司共同展示了 S26 搭载的全新 Gemini 智能体能力：口头吩咐一句话，Gemini 就能在 Uber 帮你打车，或者 DoorDash 上点外卖。 图源：Android Central 这个功能目前还处于早期预览阶段，仅在美国和韩国提供。 你可以理解为，Google 和三星一起联手，做了一个全球版的「豆包手机」（准确来说叫豆包手机助手）。Galaxy S26 系列只是开始，这些能力后 续会推送到 Google Pixel 10 手机，以及更多 Android 17 设备上。 AI 在智能手机上生出了一颗独立按键，似乎让智能手机找回了久违的进化动力。眼镜凭借着视觉和听觉的天然入口，隐隐有了下一代个人终端的 影子。一些小而专注的设备，在某些瞬间似乎比 All in one 的设备更为可靠。与此同时，那些寄望一次性替代手机的激进尝试，却遭遇了现实的冷 遇。 技术的落地，从来不只是功能的堆叠，更关乎人的习惯、场景的契合，以及对「好用」的重新定义。 爱范儿推出「AI 器物志」栏目，想和你一起观察：AI 如何改变硬件设计，如何重塑人机交互，以及更重要的——AI ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle. The overall market atmosphere is under certain suppression, but in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. Different industries have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on these [39][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: The annualized basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are presented. For example, IF's ratios are 4.70%/2.97%/5.48%/4.74% [2]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US tariff policy, RMB exchange rate, and AI business, the stock index is expected to have a relatively strong performance [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts on Thursday are provided. There are also news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the stance of the Bank of Japan. The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Although inflation recovery has potential suppression on the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not stable, the capital side is expected to remain loose. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The precious metal prices are in horizontal consolidation, with support from Trump's tariff plan and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and resistance from the Fed's officials' statements and the expectation of stable US short - term interest rates [7]. - **Strategy View**: The precious metal prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 11,300 - 12,000 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the US - Iran negotiation and other factors, copper prices are in oscillatory adjustment. LME inventory has increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have also changed. The spot discount in the East China region has expanded [11]. - **Strategy View**: The US tariff policy provides emotional support, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory, with reference ranges of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have adjusted. LME inventory has decreased, and domestic inventory has increased. The spot discount in the East China region has narrowed [13]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price support is strong. The reference ranges are 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have declined. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China has increased, and the downstream enterprise start - up rate is average [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry in China shows a weak trend. Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices. The zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have increased. Both domestic and foreign inventories have risen rapidly, and the industrial situation is weak [17]. - **Strategy View**: The strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support the lead price in the short - term. It is necessary to observe the start - up of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have declined. The prices of nickel ore are stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of nickel is shrinking, and nickel prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices are in oscillatory operation. The inventory has decreased, and the supply and demand are marginally loose [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton for domestic tin and 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased. The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by the export ban, the short - term spot shortage is expected to continue. It is necessary to be cautious about the increase of selling orders. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index has declined. The spot price in Shandong has increased, and the overseas price is stable. The inventory has increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton for the AO2605 contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have increased. The raw material prices have changed, and the inventory has increased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure will be relieved, and the price has a strong bottom support. It is recommended to be bullish, with a reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has increased. The inventory has changed, and the trading volume has increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have declined. The inventory and trading volume have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage. It is expected to oscillate within a range with a weak center of gravity in the short - term. It is necessary to focus on the demand recovery and policy trends [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have declined. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement emission reduction measures during important meetings [34]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply has recovered, and the demand is okay. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and stably. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic terminal demand and policy guidance [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The spot prices have different changes, and the basis is positive [36]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the upward catalysis of coking coal is weak. It may face a callback risk in March - May, but it may rise in the second half of 2026 [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined, and the inventory has increased. Soda ash prices are stable, and the inventory has increased [40][42]. - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 1,025 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly and stably, with a reference range of 1,140 - 1,200 yuan/ton [41][43]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices have increased, and ferrosilicon prices have also risen slightly [44]. - **Strategy View**: The future market is mainly affected by the black market and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have declined, and polysilicon prices have also decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are in oscillatory operation. The start - up rates of tire enterprises are low, and the inventory has increased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade according to the short - term trend of the disk and set stop - losses. It is also recommended to go long on NR and short on RU2609 [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have declined, and the inventory data of related products have changed [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have changed, and the MTO profit has increased [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have changed, and the basis is negative [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short urea due to the expected negative fundamentals [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene have changed. The supply and demand sides have different performances [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits gradually as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, and the fundamentals are weak [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory cycle is about to end. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have declined. The load and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory has changed [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory pressure is high [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have different changes. The actual supply pressure has been reduced [80]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price is expected to be weak, but there may be support for the far - month contracts [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mainly stable. The supply is normal, and the market digestion speed is okay [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot price decline is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The export and production data of soybeans in the US and Brazil are provided. The domestic soybean inventory has changed [84]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to the increase in import costs [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic oil inventory has increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger. It is recommended to buy when the oil prices stop falling at low levels [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided. The domestic import data are also given [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the international sugar market. The domestic sugar price is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The US cotton export data and the domestic cotton inventory data are provided [92]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to buy on dips if the downstream start - up rate after the Spring Festival is good [93].

Core Viewpoint - The Tianhong Sci-Tech Chip Design ETF (589070) has shown significant trading activity and growth, driven by strong performance in the semiconductor sector, particularly in domestic GPU companies and power semiconductor price increases. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of February 26, 2026, the Tianhong Sci-Tech Chip Design ETF (589070) had a turnover rate of 15.7%, with a transaction volume of 95.6682 million yuan, indicating active market trading [1] - Over the past two weeks, the ETF's scale increased by 12.6982 million yuan, with a growth of 14 million shares, reflecting substantial growth [2] - In the last 13 trading days, the ETF attracted a total inflow of 47.3619 million yuan [3] Group 2: Industry Highlights - Domestic GPU is a core area for semiconductor localization, with market share of domestic GPU design companies rising from 5% to 12% over the past three years, indicating significant replacement potential [4] - The National Big Fund Phase III is focusing on supporting high-end chip design, providing R&D funding and market resources for domestic GPU companies [4] - Increased demand for self-controlled computing power in sectors such as government, finance, and energy is expected to accelerate market share capture by domestic GPU companies, presenting excess return opportunities for the ETF [4] Group 3: Market Events - On February 25, domestic power semiconductor manufacturers collectively announced price increases, with companies like Xinjieneng raising MOSFET product prices by at least 10% due to rising costs of raw materials and manufacturing [5] - The power semiconductor industry is experiencing a collective price adjustment, with companies like Silan Micro and Huayi Technology also raising prices, indicating an improving supply-demand balance and ongoing industry growth [5] Group 4: Institutional Insights - Guolian Minsheng Securities noted that the storage industry chain is benefiting from increased AI demand, with Micron investing $50 billion to expand its Boise facility and build two new wafer fabs expected to start production in 2027 [6] - The price of HBM4 has increased significantly, with new generation HBM4 chips priced at $700 each, reflecting a 20-30% increase compared to HBM3E [6] - Lanke Technology successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately 6.9 billion HKD, with plans to allocate about 70% of the funds for R&D in interconnect chips, focusing on AI server and cloud computing infrastructure opportunities [6]

热点聚焦 1、隔夜，国际原油期货小幅收跌。黄金期货跌0.45%，报5202.8美元/盎司；白银期货跌2.74%，报89.12 美元/盎司。此前消息称，伊美第三轮间接谈判在日内瓦举行。阿曼与伊朗外长相继释放"取得重大进 展"、"接近共识"的信号，也有匿名美国高级官员称谈判进展"积极"。而据美国官员当地时间26日透 露，美国海军第五舰队驻巴林总部已缩减至"关键任务"人员编制。据称，此举是为应对伊朗可能发动的 袭击。 2、2月26日，在岸人民币兑美元收盘报6.8397，涨275点，创2023年3月23日以来新高。节后三个交易 日，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元升值近600个基点，双双突破6.87、6.85乃至6.83关口，创下2023年4月以 来新高。26日当天，中国人民银行发文，支持境内银行按照依法合规、风险可控的原则开展人民币跨境 同业融资业务。 3、数据显示，9日-15日，中国模型以4.12万亿Token的调用量，首次超过同期美国模型的2.94万亿 Token。16日-22日，中国模型的周调用量进一步冲高至5.16万亿Token，三周大涨127%，而同期美国模 型调用量跌至2.7万亿Token。平台调用量排名前五的模 ...

美联储理事米兰：认为我们今年需要降息大约一个百分点。 拉加德：欧央行正严密监控AI对就业市场的影响，目前尚未见裁员潮。 大家早上壕！ 先看海外要闻： 美股受科技股拖累，道指收涨0.03%、纳指收跌1.18%、标普500收跌0.54%；英伟达跌5.46%、AMD跌3.41%、特斯拉跌2.11%、谷歌A跌1.76%、 亚马逊跌1.29%。 谷歌：推出更快版本的最新图像模型Nano Banana 2，并将在谷歌旗下各产品中逐步上线。 苹果同意将三星存储芯片的价格提高100%。；库克暗示苹果将于下周一上午举行发布会。 美国稀土供应再恶化！部分航天与芯片被迫限产，钇价一年暴涨69倍。 容量碾压HBM 10倍！SK海力士联手闪迪，启动HBF全球标准化。 美乌在日内瓦举行会谈 为新一轮俄美乌三方会谈做准备 新一轮三方会谈将于3月初举行。 卫星图像显示美国11架F-22隐形战机抵达以色列。 Hetzner再次宣布涨价，云服务涨幅近40%。 奈飞拒绝提高收购华纳兄弟探索的报价，宣布重启股票回购计划，美股盘后一度涨13%。 国内重大事件汇总： 今日券商策略前瞻： 光大证券表示，短线指数或阶段性震荡，但市场情绪有望延续改善，至少结 ...

【今日头条】 中国AI调用量首超美国，四款大模型霸榜全球前五 2月，中国AI的模型调用量爆发式增长，首次超过美国。全球最大的AI模型API聚合平台OpenRouter数 据显示，9日~15日这周，中国模型以4.12万亿Token的调用量，首次超过同期美国模型的2.94万亿 Token。16日~22日这周，中国模型的周调用量进一步冲高至5.16万亿Token，三周大涨127%，而同期美 国模型调用量跌至2.7万亿Token。与此同时，全球调用量排名前五的模型中，中国模型占据四席，这股 强大的增长动能，并非依赖单一爆款产品，而是中国AI厂商集群式崛起。 Token是AI模型处理文本的最小单位。相比用户数，Token调用量是更能真实反映AI模型使用强度、用 户粘性及商业价值的关键指标。中国模型厂商，正凭借快速迭代和成本优势占领全球市场，国产算力需 求正经历指数级增长。 四款登榜大模型：阿里通义千问(Qwen3);深度求索(DeepSeek-V3.1);智谱GLM-4.6/4.7;月之暗面Kimi K2.5。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.78% 隔夜美股道指涨17.05点，涨幅为0.03%，报49499.20点;纳指 ...

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场关注美伊谈判，原油波动剧烈，WTI原油一度下挫3%，随后较日低拉升4.9%、最终较昨日尾盘微跌。 亚洲时段，A股分化，沪指微跌，算力硬件集体爆发，人民币升破6.83关口，恒科指大跌近3%，科网股普跌。 要闻 市场概述 英伟达财报强劲未缓解市场担忧，股价大跌近5.5%，拖累美股大盘、AI概念股和芯片板块。 道指微涨，纳指跌近1.2%、几乎回吐昨日所有涨幅，罗素小盘股指数收高0.5%。大型科技股成为拖累美股大盘的主要力量。板块轮动。报道称Anthropic与 美国国防部的关系紧张，软件股强劲反弹、录得三连涨。 各期限美债收益率普遍下跌3至4个基点，10年期美债收益率创去年11月28日以来低点。美元涨0.12%。 加密货币与科技股同步下跌。比特币跌超2%，失守6.8万美元。以太坊下跌3.5%，日内一度跌破2000美元。 现货黄金震荡走高0.4%。现货白银跌1%，纽铜涨0.68%、三连涨。 李嘉诚又卖了！长和系三家公司发布联合公告，宣布出售英国电网业务，套现逾1100亿港元。 海外 押注人工智能，Block裁员近半。 三星存储部门漫天要价，苹 ...

最近几年，芯片是年年涨价，特别是先进的芯片，比如5nm、3nm这些，由于几乎整个市场，都掌握在 台积电一家手中，更是涨个不停。 所以我们看到像旗舰手机Soc，一年比一年价格高，于是旗舰手机也是不断的涨价，因为成本高了。 前段时间就传出消息称，2nm芯片相比于3nm，又要涨50%，到时候2nm芯片的手机，可能会继续上 涨，一时之间，让大家都有点担忧了。 但近日，ASML传出了好消息，那就是ASML掌握了新技术，可以让EUV光刻机的产能提升50%。 按照ASML的说法，目前EUV光刻机的光源功率是600W，接下来他们要将其提升至1000W，然后其晶 圆处理速度，能够提升50%。 意味着原来可能1小时生产的芯片是1万块，现在变成1.5万块，意味着成本可能会降三分之一左右，那 么不可避免的，芯片价格就会下降。 就算台积电垄断市场，也不得不降价，因为三星、英特尔也在虎视眈眈，一旦台积电不降价，另外两家 降价，台积电也撑不住。 所以，如果ASML将EUV光刻机的产能，真的提升50%，对于整个芯片行业，以及消费电子产业而言， 都是极大的利好消息，意味着大家的成本，都会降不少。 不过，ASML称，这一项技术要到2030年才会 ...