Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - **Steel Industry**: The outlook for the steel industry has shifted from cautious to bullish, primarily driven by supply-side expectations. The current profitability of the industry is low, which is seen as a potential opportunity for investment. The focus is on the supply-side policies that are influenced by the industry's profitability levels. The investment opportunities are concentrated during periods of poor profitability or strong expectations for recovery [1][2]. - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: The overall sentiment towards non-ferrous metals is positive, with a particular emphasis on the strategic importance of reserves. The current market conditions are compared to the 1970s, indicating that traditional supply-demand dynamics may not fully capture the market's behavior. Central bank gold purchases are highlighted as a significant factor influencing prices [3][4]. Key Insights - **Steel Sector Performance**: The steel sector is expected to face challenges in 2024, with a significant downturn anticipated in Q3 and Q4. However, there is a belief that supply-side expectations will strengthen in 2025, particularly in early 2025, before tapering off as profitability improves later in the year. Recommended stocks include Hualing Steel and Baosteel [2]. - **Gold and Silver Market**: The gold and silver markets are expected to maintain their upward trajectory due to concerns over U.S. dollar credit and geopolitical tensions. The current environment is seen as favorable for gold prices, with expectations of continued strength in the short term. Silver is noted for its higher price elasticity compared to gold, with potential for strong performance in March due to seasonal demand [5][6][7]. - **Copper Market Dynamics**: The copper market is currently in a seasonal accumulation phase, with domestic inventories exceeding 500,000 tons. The price of copper has stabilized around 100,000 yuan per ton, with expectations for a gradual recovery as demand from downstream industries increases. The long-term outlook remains optimistic due to ongoing demand from AI and electric grid applications [8][9][10][11]. - **Cobalt and Nickel**: The cobalt and nickel markets are expected to experience upward price movements, driven by supply constraints and strategic demand. Recommended stocks include Huayou Cobalt and Li Hang Resources, which are seen as having strong price elasticity [12]. - **Tin Market Outlook**: The tin market is projected to see price increases due to limited supply growth and strong demand from the semiconductor industry. The recommendation is to focus on companies like Xinyi Silver Tin, which are expanding production capacity significantly [13][14][15]. - **Tungsten Market Trends**: The tungsten market is experiencing a price increase, with strong demand from various sectors. Companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhongtian High-tech are expanding their production capabilities, indicating confidence in the market's future [16][17][18][19][20]. - **Rare Earth Elements**: The rare earth market is expected to remain tight, with supply constraints and increasing demand from new energy applications. Companies like Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth are recommended for investment due to their strategic importance and growth potential [21][22][23][24]. Additional Considerations - The overall sentiment across various metal markets indicates a cautious optimism, with strategic reserves and geopolitical factors playing a significant role in price movements. The focus on supply-side dynamics and the potential for recovery in profitability are critical themes for investors to consider moving forward [25].

现金流ETF800鹏华紧密跟踪中证800自由现金流指数，中证800自由现金流指数从中证800指数样本中选 取50只自由现金流率较高的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映中证800指数样本中现金流创造能力较 强的上市公司证券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证800自由现金流指数(932368)前十大权重股分别为中国海油、格力 电器、上汽集团、中国铝业、中远海控、TCL科技、牧原股份、白银有色、宝钢股份、正泰电器，前十 大权重股合计占比56.31%。 有机构指出，外部冲击基本消化，市场重回周期涨价主线，中盘蓝筹中具备涨价预期的周期品迎来配置 窗口。春节后行情可分三阶段把握：2月底前科技成长修复反弹；3月初至两会业绩与政策博弈；两会后 风格均衡化，现金流等防御板块价值凸显。随着行情从第一阶段向第三阶段演进，或可逐步增配现金流 指数，提前布局两会后的风格均衡行情。现金流指数凭借周期涨价主线暴露与防御属性，是连接节后不 同阶段行情的"转换器"资产。 截至2026年2月25日 10:57，中证800自由现金流指数(932368)强势上涨1.89%，成分股云天化上涨 10.01%，海螺水泥上涨7.26%，辽 ...

碳足迹，是指由个人、组织、事件或产品直接和间接造成的温室气体排放总量，通常以二氧化碳当量表 示，可分为国家碳足迹、城市碳足迹、组织碳足迹、企业碳足迹、家庭碳足迹、产品碳足迹以及个人碳 足迹。 在各类碳足迹中，产品碳足迹是应用最广的概念。产品碳足迹指的是产品的整个生命周期，包括从原材 料的生产、运输、分销、使用到废弃等流程所产生的碳排放量总和，是衡量生产企业和产品绿色低碳水 平的重要指标。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 加快提升工业产品碳足迹管理水平，建立健全碳足迹管理体系，是促进工业绿色低碳转型的重要途径。 近日，工业和信息化部、生态环境部、国家发展改革委、市场监管总局4部门联合发布了第三批73项工 业产品碳足迹核算规则团体标准推荐清单，涵盖石化、钢铁、有色、建材等13个重点行业。 专家认为，清单聚焦市场需求迫切、减排贡献突出、产业链关联性强、供应链带动作用明显，以及国际 贸易量大的产品领域，将为支撑完善我国产品碳足迹管理体系、助力实现"双碳"目标发挥重要作用。 规范排放管理 确定产品碳足迹是减少企业碳排放行为的第一步。对于企业而言，有助于企业真正了解产品对气候变化 的影响，并由此采取可行 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Industry**: The records discuss various segments of the metals industry, including precious metals, industrial metals, energy metals, and strategic metals, highlighting their current status and future outlooks [1][5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Investment Drivers**: Geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data are driving the safe-haven and anti-inflation attributes of precious metals. Central bank purchases, de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks are long-term support factors. For instance, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, with a projected global central bank purchase of approximately 683 tons in 2025 [1][3]. - **Price Trends**: Gold prices have stabilized above $5,000 per ounce, with expectations to hold around $5,100 per ounce. The valuation of gold stocks remains low, with companies like Shandong Gold International and Zhongjin Gold being recommended for investment [3][10]. - **Market Performance**: During the Spring Festival, gold and silver prices rebounded significantly, with gold surpassing 5,100 yuan per gram and silver exceeding $85 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic indicators [2]. Industrial Metals - **Demand Shift**: The demand structure for industrial metals is shifting from traditional sectors to electric infrastructure, renewable energy, and AI-driven data centers. This transition is expected to sustain an upward cycle for the next two to three years, with copper and aluminum valuations being attractive at around 10 times earnings [5]. - **Supply Constraints**: The supply side faces challenges such as depletion of high-grade mines, geopolitical risks, and insufficient exploration investments, leading to tight supply conditions [5]. Energy Metals - **Market Outlook**: Lithium inventories are decreasing amid strong demand, leading to a positive outlook for lithium prices. Cobalt and nickel are benefiting from quota and supply restrictions, while strategic metals like rare earths, tungsten, and uranium have solid long-term fundamentals despite short-term price corrections [6][12]. Steel Industry - **Current Challenges**: The steel industry is experiencing a downturn, with many companies reducing or halting production. Attention is needed on supply-side policies and support from the real estate sector. A potential improvement in demand is expected post-spring commencement [7][32]. - **Profit Projections**: The total profit for the steel industry is projected to be around 7 billion yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 112 times [1][32]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - **Tariff Implications**: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that previous tariffs imposed by the former president were invalid, but details on refunds remain unclear. Future fluctuations in import tariffs may impact precious metal prices, with expectations of upward price movements in 2026, albeit less volatile than in 2025 [1][7]. Strategic Metals - **Price Trends**: Recent price increases for light rare earths, such as neodymium oxide, have been noted, with a 12% increase year-on-year. Heavy rare earths, however, are experiencing price declines due to weaker demand [20][21]. - **Supply Control**: Future supply is expected to be tightly controlled, with significant reductions in mining and refining quotas anticipated, which will maintain upward pressure on prices [23][25]. Recommendations - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies such as Shandong Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, and various firms in the lithium and nickel sectors are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their favorable market positions and growth prospects [3][10][12][19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the metals industry.

叶如祯 长江证券分析师: 尊敬的各位投资人，欢迎大家下午收听由这个长安金属煤炭举办的如何展望节后金属煤炭 行情的这个专题会议。那么核心还是节中的话，整体的这个，包括海外资产，包括其实商 品资产，也都出现了比较积极的这个大幅的这个波动。所以，这个长安金属煤炭联合还是 希望在节前去做一个这个观点的展望，以及整个 2~3 月份的这个配置的这样的一个策略。 我这边是这个贵金属叶如珍，然后主要是先更新一下这个黄金和白银的这个假期内的这个 情境。那么假期中，其实核心的线索主要还是这个特朗普和最高法院的这个司法战，触发 的这个避险情绪。 那么带动的贵金属的行情进一步的这个上行，那么触发的这个时点，其实主要是源于 2 月 20 日，这个美国最高法院对这个特朗普裁定这个从动无无权限。在非紧急特殊状态下实施 全面广泛这个性关税。那么在这个裁决之后，特朗普又基于这个 1974 年的这个贸易法案 的第 122 条。立即这个征收了这个 10%的这个全球的关税，那么有效期为 150 天。这一 来一回，直接我们讲导致了这个美元和美债利率的走弱，那么从而，一一方面催生了这个 整体这个美国经济预期的扰动。 另外一方面，还是主要是这个贸易情绪的 ...

眼下正是A股上市公司年报和ESG报告的编制期，随着钢铁行业正式纳入全国碳市场，部分钢企开启了ESG碳排放信披的"双重监管"。 约232家钢企作为重点排放单位，须在3月31日前向省级生态环境部门报送2025年度温室气体排放报告。紧随其后的4月30日，A股ESG强信披上市公司中有6 家钢企需要按交易所规定披露2025年ESG报告。 这6家上市钢企分别是宝钢股份、包钢股份、鞍钢股份、马钢股份、重庆钢铁、中信特钢。截至2月24日，6家钢企的2024年ESG报告已全部披露，就待2025 年ESG报告出炉。21世纪经济报道记者根据2024年ESG报告和年报整理后发现，6家钢企中鞍钢股份、包钢股份仍未披露2024年度碳排放总量。 距离我国实现2030年前碳达峰还有不到4年的时间，钢企纷纷冲刺减排技术改造。然而21世纪经济报道记者统计后发现，6家上市钢企2024年环保总投入同比 下降约16%，总计为246.54亿元，除马钢股份外的5家钢企均缩减资金投入，降幅从7%到40%不等。 鞍钢、包钢未披露2024年碳排放 温室气体排放是ESG环境维度的重要议题之一，碳排放总量、范围1和范围2排放量是沪深北交易所《上市公司可持续发展报告 ...

关联内容 全国碳市场首次扩围的三大行业碳排"家底"几何？ 眼下正是A股上市公司年报和ESG报告的编制期，随着钢铁行业正式纳入全国碳市场，部分钢企开启了ESG碳排放信披的"双重监管"。 约232家钢企作为重点排放单位，须在3月31日前向省级生态环境部门报送2025年度温室气体排放报告。紧随其后的4月30日，A股ESG强信披上市公司中有6 家钢企需要按交易所规定披露2025年ESG报告。 这6家上市钢企分别是宝钢股份（600019）、包钢股份（600010）、鞍钢股份（000898）、马钢股份（600808）、重庆钢铁（601005）、中信特钢 （000708）。截至2月24日，6家钢企的2024年ESG报告已全部披露，就待2025年ESG报告出炉。21世纪经济报道记者根据2024年ESG报告和年报整理后发 现，6家钢企中鞍钢股份、包钢股份仍未披露2024年度碳排放总量。 距离我国实现2030年前碳达峰还有不到4年的时间，钢企纷纷冲刺减排技术改造。然而21世纪经济报道记者统计后发现，6家上市钢企2024年环保总投入同比 下降约16%，总计为246.54亿元，除马钢股份外的5家钢企均缩减资金投入，降幅从7%到40% ...

Core Viewpoint - The articles highlight the preparations and efforts made by various sectors in Shanghai to ensure a safe and vibrant celebration of the upcoming Lunar New Year, emphasizing the importance of community, culture, and technological advancements in enhancing the festive atmosphere. Group 1: Power Supply and Emergency Services - State Grid Shanghai Electric Power has developed comprehensive power supply plans to ensure safety and reliability during the New Year celebrations, involving 345 teams and 2,529 repair personnel ready for emergency responses [1][8] - The company has stationed 634 power generation vehicles and 240 emergency generators to maintain power supply, ensuring that every household can enjoy a bright and warm reunion [1] Group 2: Cultural and Community Events - The "Over New Year in Fengxian" event features a variety of activities, including traditional banquets and modern consumer experiences, aimed at reviving childhood memories associated with the New Year [5][7] - The "Shining Shanghai" light and shadow exhibition in Jing'an district connects art and culture, enhancing the festive spirit through visual displays that celebrate the city's heritage [3][8] Group 3: Telecommunications and Connectivity - Shanghai Telecom's team is ensuring seamless communication across the city, providing full coverage in key areas such as the Hongqiao hub and tourist zones, allowing families to stay connected during the celebrations [7] - Innovations like AI photo booths and dynamic family portraits in telecom service centers enhance the festive experience, bridging cultural gaps and fostering community warmth [7] Group 4: Industrial Contributions - Baosteel is operating at full capacity to meet demand, ensuring timely delivery of orders through meticulous quality control and safety measures, contributing to the city's industrial backbone [8] - The industrial efforts are part of a broader commitment to maintain stability and supply during the festive season, reinforcing the city's economic foundation [8]

[Table_Title] 如何展望节后的钢铁行情？ 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当前钢铁板块是一个弹性大且可能超预期的板块。从高频数据上看，产业的预期无疑是比较低 的。今年冬储累库的力度为近年来最弱，五大钢材总库存的高度也处于近年低位，映射经过四 年多的下行期后，产业在心态上比较谨慎和悲观。但另一维度，低库存有助于缓解节后去库的 压力；价格底部或意味着价格的调整较为充分，成材从供需维度逐步达到弱平衡。由此，在基 本面和价格均充分筑底的状态下，若需求或供给侧受到催化，成材涨价的弹性或较为显著。当 前时点，成材价格上涨的概率或大于下跌的概率；且一旦涨价，涨价弹性值得期待。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table ...

2026 年 02 月 24 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 避险情绪升级,贵金属价格强势 金属&新材料行业周报 20260216-20260220 本期投资提示: 我研究报 行业点评 1. 一周行情回顾 据 iFind，总体看，2 月 13 日环比上周，上证指数上涨 0.41%，深证成指上涨 1.39%, 沪深 300 上涨 0.36%，有色金属（申万）指数上涨 1.70%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.34 个百 分点；2026 年有色金属（申万）指数上涨 14.07%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 13.41 个百分点。 资料来源：iFind，申万宏源研究 (截至２月 13 日) 20% 15% 10% 5% ...