Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is undergoing significant structural changes, with a shift from social gifting to self-experience consumption, indicating a deep adjustment in market dynamics [3][6][7] - The high-end liquor sector is entering a new phase focused on channel health and ecological sustainability, with major brands implementing structural reforms to adapt to rational consumption trends [6][10] - The competition for the 2026 Spring Festival market is intensifying, with companies adopting refined marketing strategies to enhance sales in specific consumption scenarios [10][11] Industry Trends - In 2025, the average price of imported whiskey dropped by 19.65%, while "white spirits" saw significant growth, indicating a shift towards premium products in the liquor market [3] - The white wine market is experiencing a "volume decrease but price increase" trend, with a 26.85% drop in import volume but a 21.79% rise in average price, reflecting a focus on quality [3] - The high-end liquor industry is focusing on reducing burdens through channel health and sustainable practices, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye adjusting their product strategies [6][10] - The market for zodiac-themed liquor has cooled significantly, with reduced consumer interest in collectible attributes, suggesting a return to cultural and commemorative aspects [6][10] Brand Dynamics - Water Well Square and Tiantan have collaborated to launch a New Year wine, emphasizing cultural significance and emotional connection [11] - Wuliangchun is leveraging the "Year Flavor" theme in its marketing strategy, integrating food and liquor to enhance brand resonance during the Spring Festival [11] - The high-end yellow wine brand Lanting has achieved rapid growth, with revenues nearing 200 million yuan, attributed to its focus on premium business dining scenarios [12] - Yanghe is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.12 to 2.52 billion yuan in 2025, supported by a substantial reserve of quality raw liquor [17] - The launch of "Shide Zizai" in Australia marks a significant step in Shide's international expansion, showcasing low-alcohol products to align with global market trends [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the consumer sector, with the CSI major consumer index rising by 1.00% and key stocks like Haida Group and Yanjing Beer showing significant gains [1] - Dongpeng Beverage officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on February 3, 2026, with an issue price of HKD 248 per share, and announced a joint venture with Indonesia's Sanlin Group to establish a vitamin functional beverage company with a total investment of USD 300 million [1] - Guizhou Moutai enhanced its connection with end consumers through the iMoutai platform, achieving over 1.43 million orders for Feitian Moutai in January, with an estimated supply of around 2,000 tons, leading to a year-on-year sales growth of over 30% before the festival [1] Group 2 - Haitong International reported that in January 2026, sectors such as condiments, frozen foods, soft drinks, and dining maintained positive growth, while high-end liquor and dairy products continued to experience contraction [1] - The cost index for dairy products and soft drinks has significantly decreased, and the net inflow of funds into the essential consumer sector through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached CNY 61.73 billion in January, increasing the sector's market capitalization ratio to 5.82%, supporting valuation recovery [1] - The current historical PE ratio for A-share food and beverage is only at 17%, while the PE ratio for H-share essential consumer stocks is at 35%, both indicating relatively low levels, combined with institutional allocation ratios at near historical lows, highlighting the sector's cost-effectiveness [1][2] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI major consumer index account for 67.37%, with Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili among the leading companies [2] - The consumption ETF managed by Harvest (512600) tracks the CSI major consumer index, which encompasses A-share essential consumer leaders across various categories, with liquor being the largest sector, accounting for over 38% of the weight [2] Group 4 - Investors can also access the consumption recovery trend through the consumption ETF linked fund (009180) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector continues to strengthen, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing positive performance, reflecting a robust market trend in this industry [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF opened higher and reached a maximum intraday increase of 1.19%, closing with a gain of 0.68% [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, including New Dairy Industry and Yanjing Beer, saw significant increases of over 3%, while several others, such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, rose by more than 1% [1][2]. Group 2: Company Announcements - Guizhou Moutai announced a share buyback of approximately 420,000 shares, representing 0.0333% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of about 571 million yuan [2][3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - According to Guosen Securities, Moutai is expected to maintain a steady price increase and strong sales during the Spring Festival, which will lay a solid foundation for the company's performance throughout the year [3]. - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, making it an attractive time for investment [3]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is anticipated to boost demand for food and beverage products, with a low performance baseline expected in the first quarter of 2026, further supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with significant allocations to beverage, dairy, and seasoning sectors [4]. - Investors can also consider the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF linked funds for exposure to core assets in this sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector continues to strengthen, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing positive performance, particularly in the liquor and consumer goods segments [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF opened with fluctuations and reached a maximum intraday increase of 1.19%, closing up by 0.68% [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, including New Dairy and Yanjing Beer, saw increases of over 3%, while Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao rose by more than 1% [1][3]. Group 2: Company Announcements - Guizhou Moutai announced that as of January 31, 2026, it had repurchased approximately 420,000 shares, accounting for 0.0333% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of about 571 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - According to Guosen Securities, Moutai is expected to maintain a steady price increase and improve sales during the Spring Festival, laying a foundation for annual operations [3]. - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, making it a favorable time for investment [3]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is anticipated to boost demand for food and beverage products, with a low performance baseline expected in Q1 2026 [6]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF tracks the CSI sub-index for the food and beverage industry, with approximately 60% of its portfolio in high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and nearly 40% in leading stocks from beverages, dairy, and condiments [4]. - Investors can also consider the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF linked funds for exposure to core assets in the sector [4].

国信证券指出，白酒方面，茅台在保持较快流速的同时价格稳中有升，市场化改革成效逐步显现，预计 春节期间动销有望增长，为全年经营奠定基础。展望2026年，预计上半年基本面仍在左侧寻底，但酒企 纾压渠道，积极去化库存，渠道利润率预计环比修复，估值端可适当乐观，下半年表观低基数下或逐步 迎来改善。 吃喝板块今日（2月4日）继续走强！反映吃喝板块整体走势的食品饮料ETF华宝（515710）开盘后震荡 走高，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到1.19%，截至发稿，涨0.68%。 成份股方面，白酒、大众品均有亮眼表现。截至发稿，新乳业、燕京啤酒双双大涨超3%，酒鬼酒、东 鹏饮料等涨超2%，贵州茅台、山西汾酒、泸州老窖等多股涨超1%。 | | | 分配 字日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 更多 | 515710)食品饮料ETFiPg] 10:54 价 0.592 温默 0.0040.68% 均价 0.591 除灾量 0 | | | | | | F9 盘前盘玩 盘加 九粒 图纸 工具 份 (8 > 2026/02/04 | | 食品饮料ETF华宜 ① | | 515710 | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Industry Overview - The beer industry in China is defined as an alcoholic beverage made primarily from malted barley and wheat, with various classifications based on brewing techniques and yeast types [1] - The industry has a significant degree of product homogeneity due to similar brewing processes among most beer products [1] Industry Chain Analysis - The beer industry has a mature supply chain in China, with upstream suppliers providing raw materials, brewing equipment, and packaging [2][4] - Major beer producers dominate the midstream market, with the top five brands (China Resources Beer, Tsingtao Brewery, Budweiser APAC, Chongqing Brewery, and Yanjing Beer) accounting for over 90% of the market share [2][5] Industry Development History - The Chinese beer industry has evolved from foreign control in the late 19th century to a more localized production model post-1949, with significant growth following the economic reforms [7] - The industry experienced a rapid expansion from 1980 to 1994, followed by a consolidation phase from 1994 to 2005, leading to the establishment of major players [7] - Since 2017, the focus has shifted towards high-end beer production as low-end market growth has plateaued [7] Current Industry Status - Beer production in China has stabilized around 35 million kiloliters, with a slight recovery noted after a decline from 2015 to 2020 [10] - The sales revenue of the beer industry saw a significant increase in 2022, reaching 175.11 billion yuan, a 10.1% year-on-year growth [11] - The demand for high-quality beer products is rising, prompting leading companies to invest in the high-end market segment [14] Pricing Trends - The average price of beer in China has been on the rise, increasing from 14.6 yuan per liter in 2019 to an expected 17.2 yuan per liter by 2024 [15] Competitive Landscape - The beer industry in China exhibits a clear oligopolistic trend, with the top five companies dominating the market [18] - The regional concentration of beer production is high, particularly in coastal areas, with Shandong and Guangdong provinces leading in production capacity [23] Future Industry Outlook - The market size of the beer industry is projected to exceed 240 billion yuan by 2031, driven by increasing consumer demand for quality and unique beer products [24] - The industry is expected to see a rise in concentration and a shift towards high-end products, with digital marketing and innovative strategies becoming key growth drivers [28]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-02-03 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4067.73 | 14127.10 | 4660.10 | 15290.00 | 4148.91 | 1471.06 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 1.29 | 2.19 | 1.17 | 2.30 | 2.66 | 1.39 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 11107.20 | 14335.11 | 6666.26 | 4888.38 | 6773.19 | 988.26 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ (4) [ (4) 36 $\mu$H$\mu$H$\mu$H$\mu$] 宏观与策略 宏观深度:宏观经济深度报告-有形之手（1）：财政 ABC 之"四本账" 固定收益深度:固收+系列报告之十 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery opportunity in the restaurant sector, with overall performance in food and beverage categories showing improvement in Q4 2025. Sales of frozen foods increased by 6.5% year-on-year, with specific categories like hot pot balls, frozen sausages, and shrimp slides seeing sales growth of approximately 15%, 45%, and 55% respectively [3][4] - The listing of "Mingming Hen Mang" on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has attracted attention to the snack sector, with the company being the largest chain retailer in China, maintaining rapid growth and expanding its market share [4] - Raw milk prices have stabilized and are showing signs of recovery, with the average price of fresh milk at 3.04 yuan/kg as of January 23, 2026, reflecting a slight increase. The report suggests a positive outlook for meat and dairy prices in 2026 due to favorable import policies [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector rose by 1.56%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.48 percentage points, ranking 6th among 31 sectors [5][11] - The liquor sub-sector performed well, increasing by 3.86% [5][11] 2. Major Consumer Goods and Raw Material Prices - As of January 23, 2026, the retail price of milk was 12.20 yuan/liter, and yogurt was 15.88 yuan/kg. The price of fresh milk was 3.04 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.60% [28] - The price of live pigs was 12.30 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21.10% [28] 3. Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the profit of the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry decreased by 9.1%, with total revenue of 1,468.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.4% [56] - The wholesale and retail industry's added value reached 14.6 trillion yuan in 2025, growing by 5% year-on-year, marking a historical high [56] 4. Core Company Dynamics - "Gu Jing Gong Jiu" announced a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 529 million yuan. "Yi Ming Food" expects a net profit increase of 62.38% to 90.02% [57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, with a focus on four main investment themes: cost advantages, efficiency improvements, innovation-driven growth, and opportunities for recovery in distressed segments [3][10]. - The report highlights the increasing bottom signals in the liquor market, particularly for baijiu, and emphasizes the importance of sales performance during the Spring Festival [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor - Baijiu prices, particularly for Moutai, are stable with a slight increase, and attention is drawn to the sales rhythm during the Spring Festival. The report recommends Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao as top picks, while also suggesting to monitor other brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Wuliangye [2][10]. - The report anticipates a continued trend of small liquor companies exiting the market, with a projected production decline of 12.1% for baijiu in 2025 [10]. Beer - The beer industry is experiencing healthy inventory levels, with expectations for demand recovery. The report recommends Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer as key players to watch [11][10]. Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of strong alpha stocks in the snack sector, particularly focusing on konjac snacks, with companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi showing strong product innovation and competitive advantages [12][10]. Food Supply Chain - The food supply chain is entering a peak season for stocking and sales, with a focus on pre-prepared dishes. The report recommends leading companies like Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring, as well as companies that are expanding their channels like Qianwei Yangchun [13][14]. Dairy Products - The report suggests a cautious outlook for dairy companies due to competitive pressures, but highlights the potential for recovery in 2026, particularly for leading companies like Yili [14][10]. Beverages - The beverage sector is currently in a de-stocking phase, with stable preparations for the Spring Festival. The report continues to recommend companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, which are accelerating their national expansion [15][10].

Industry and Company Analysis Summary Industry Overview - The beer industry is currently experiencing a high dividend yield, with leading companies increasing their dividends, providing support for stock prices. The focus is on the recovery of service consumption and inflation expectations driving volume and price growth in 2026 [1][2] - The industry is expected to see a recovery in volume and price due to improved service consumption and inflation expectations [1] Key Companies and Insights China Resources Beer (华润啤酒) - Recognized for its leading position and ongoing premiumization strategy [1] - Projected to achieve a small single-digit volume growth in 2025, with stable pricing and a slight decline in H2 compared to H1. Full-year profit is expected to grow by a high single to double-digit percentage [2] - Anticipated revenue and profit for 2025 are 39.1 billion and 5.8 billion respectively, not accounting for impairments [2] - Dividend payout ratio is expected to gradually increase to 70-80% [2] Chongqing Brewery (重啤) - Q4 trends are better than the same period last year, primarily due to strict inventory control in 2025. The company expects stable or slightly increased sales for the year [2] - Notable growth in U.S. and Xinjiang markets, with double-digit growth for brands like Carlsberg and Fenghua Xueyue [2] Yanjing Beer (燕京) - The company forecasts a slight decline in net profit for Q4, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3% to +44% [3] - Plans to launch a new product, A10, to enhance its product matrix in 2026 [3] - Expected stable cost per ton and potential for operational efficiency improvements [3] Financial Metrics - China Resources Beer has a dividend yield of 4.0% for A shares and 5.5% for H shares [2] - Chongqing Brewery's Q4 performance is expected to show a slight increase in sales, with a focus on inventory management [2] - Yanjing's Q4 revenue is projected to grow by 7%, with an annual profit of 1.2 billion [3] Risks - Potential risks include cost fluctuations, slower-than-expected recovery in demand from the restaurant sector, and increased competition [4]