粮价稳步上行，种植周期崛起 — — 种 植 业 动态跟踪报告 分析师：李晓渊 执业证书编号：S0930523100002 联系人：于明正 2025年5月12日 证券研究报告 核心结论 粮价开启稳步上行，长期增量扩面趋势有望延续。 全球市场：24/25种植季，由于海外天气影响，全球玉米减产，叠加大豆价格低迷影响，新季全球玉米种植面积和产量预测向上，全球供需 预计仍将偏紧平衡。 国内市场：（1）中短期玉米库存压力缓解驱动价格回暖，种植利润修复；（2）25年Q1粮食进口大幅缩量，进口调控保障国内粮价合理、 稳定，利好长期种植意愿和种植面积扩张；（3）替代品方面，小麦供需同样趋紧，饲用替代空间有限，玉米价格仍具备一定上行空间； （4）下游养殖利润回暖，短期需求周期性改善。长期视角下，国内饲用玉米需求量持续增长，需要种植面积和单产水平提升保障主粮安全。 投资建议：把握三条主线，（1）种植：玉米、小麦等主粮价格稳步上行直接利好大种植标的，主营业务利润有望逐步改善，建议关注北大 荒、苏垦农发等；（2）种子：受益于种植景气回升，种业需求基本面逐步改善，关注具备品种优势和强推广能力的企业，建议关注隆平高 科、荃银高科、秋乐种业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [4] Core Views - The current pig price is on the rise, with the national average price for live pigs at 14.82 yuan/kg as of May 9, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.07% [28] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has reached a new high since early 2023, indicating a potential turning point in inventory levels, which may lead to a phase of destocking in the industry [28][3] - The report highlights a significant differentiation in sales performance among listed companies, with some experiencing a decline in sales volume while others maintain growth [2][13] Summary by Sections Sales Volume - In April, the total number of pigs sold by 13 listed companies was 16.26 million heads, a decrease of 5.39% month-on-month but an increase of 39.69% year-on-year [2][14] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs has increased, with the average weight for April reported at 125.25 kg, up by 0.81 kg from the previous month [17][28] Sales Price - The report notes that the average selling price of pigs has remained stable, with most companies reporting price fluctuations within 3% [2][15] - The lowest average price was recorded at 14.32 yuan/kg by TianKang Biological, while the highest was 15.81 yuan/kg by DongRui Co [15][2] Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the current inventory levels are high, and the demand has weakened post the May Day holiday, leading to increased pressure on pig sales in southern regions [28][3] - The report suggests that the industry may be entering a destocking phase as the willingness to sell fattened pigs decreases [28][3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture for the pig farming sector [3] - It also suggests monitoring companies in the feed and animal health sectors, such as Haida Group and Ruipu Biological, as their performance is expected to improve with the recovery of pig inventory levels [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's core products are experiencing steady growth, while short-term profits are under pressure due to the performance of the hearing aid segment [5][7] - The company is expected to focus on core products and self-manufactured items, with a rich product pipeline that is likely to enhance profitability in the future [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 2,854 million RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 4.14%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 254 million RMB, down 15.71% year-on-year [6] - Revenue is projected to grow to 3,495 million RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.15%. The net profit is expected to reach 376 million RMB, with a growth rate of 20.45% [6][8] - The gross margin for 2024 is reported at 51.9%, an increase of 8.6 percentage points year-on-year, with significant improvements in the rehabilitation aids segment [7] Business Segment Performance - The rehabilitation aids segment achieved revenue of 1.1 billion RMB, up 42.8% year-on-year. The traditional Chinese medicine therapy and other segments generated 180 million RMB, up 20.5% year-on-year [7] - The hearing aid segment reported revenue of 270 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 37.9%, but also faced a net loss of 43.25 million RMB due to a challenging consumer environment and new store performance [7] Profitability and Valuation - The company is expected to see net profits of 3.8 billion RMB, 4.5 billion RMB, and 5.4 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 20.4%, 20.2%, and 20.6% respectively [7] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 19X, 16X, and 13X respectively [7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the **military and defense industry**, particularly the developments in missile technology and military trade dynamics involving China and Pakistan [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **PL-15E air-to-air missile** has an attack range exceeding **145 kilometers**, indicating a significant advancement in China's missile capabilities. This missile features all-weather usage and beyond-visual-range launch capabilities, which are crucial for modern warfare [5][6]. - The **demand for precision-guided munitions** is expected to increase due to military storage needs and real combat training consumption. The year **2023** is anticipated to be a pivotal year for new weaponry and ammunition production, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][6]. - **Military trade** with Pakistan is highlighted, with **63.02%** of China's military exports directed to Pakistan, which relies on China for **81.15%** of its military imports. This suggests a strong bilateral defense relationship that may bolster China's military export growth in the medium to long term [4][6]. - The **military sector** is experiencing fluctuations, with leading companies like **Aerospace Changfeng** showing mixed performance amid market volatility. The stock's trading behavior reflects broader market trends and investor sentiment towards military stocks [3][4]. Additional Important Content - The **geopolitical landscape** is influencing military stock performance, with ongoing conflicts affecting demand and supply dynamics in the defense sector. The sustainability of military stock growth may depend on the duration of geopolitical tensions [3][4]. - Companies such as **New Light Optoelectronics** and **Xinyu Guoke** are making technological advancements in military applications, enhancing their capabilities in missile development and production [6][7]. - The **explosive materials industry** is poised for growth, driven by increased demand for ammunition and military supplies, particularly in light of global conflicts [6][7]. - The **stock market's resilience** is noted, with historical data suggesting that A-shares tend to perform well during years of poor export performance, as monetary policy often becomes more accommodative in such scenarios [1][3]. Conclusion - The military and defense industry is at a critical juncture, with technological advancements and geopolitical factors shaping its future. Companies involved in missile technology and military trade are likely to see sustained demand, while market dynamics will continue to influence stock performance.

证券代码：301087 证券简称：可孚医疗 公告编号：2025-035 可孚医疗科技股份有限公司 关于控股股东部分股份解除质押及质押的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 可孚医疗科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）近日接到公司控股股东长 沙械字号医疗投资有限公司（以下简称"械字号投资"）通知，获悉其所持有的 本公司部分股份办理了解除质押及质押业务，具体情况如下： 一、股东股份解除质押及质押的基本情况 1、本次股份解除质押基本情况 | 股东 | 是否为控股 股东或第一 | 本次质押 | 占其所 | 占公 司总 | 是否为 | 是否为 | 质押 | 质押 | | 质押 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 数量 | 持股份 | | | 补充质 | | | 质权人 | | | 名称 | 大股东及其 | （万股） | 比例 | 股本 | 限售股 | 押 | 起始日 | 到期日 | | 用途 | | | 一致行动人 | | | 比例 | | ...

为充分尊重投资者、提升交流的针对性，现就公司本次业绩说明会提前向投 资者公开征集问题，广泛听取投资者的意见和建议。投资者可提前登录"互动易" 平台（http://irm.cninfo.com.cn）"云访谈"栏目，进入问题征集专题页面进行提 问。公司将在本次业绩说明会上对投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 欢迎广大投资者积极参与。 可孚医疗科技股份有限公司 关于举行2024年度网上业绩说明会的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 可孚医疗科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2025 年 4 月 29 日在 巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）披露 2024 年年度报告全文及其摘要。 为便于广大投资者进一步了解公司 2024 年度经营情况，公司定于 2025 年 5 月 16 日（星期五）15:00-17:00 举办 2024 年度网上业绩说明会，本次年度业绩 说明会将采用网络远程的方式举行，投资者可登录深圳证券交易所"互动易"平 台（http://irm.cninfo.com.cn）进入"云访谈"栏目参与本次年度业绩 ...

| 石油石化 | | | | 广聚能源 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林牧渔 | -0.22 | 120.00 | -10.44 | 秋乐种业 | -6.77 | | 交通运输 | -0.23 | 121.17 | -28.89 | *ST锦港 | -5.32 | | 美容护理 | -1.05 | 35.48 | -26.57 | 拉芳家化 | -4.97 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午收盘，今日沪指涨0.38%，A股成交量681.04亿股，成交金额8271.00亿 元，比上一个交易日减少16.35%。个股方面，3837只个股上涨，其中涨停85只，1355只个股下跌，其 中跌停5只。从申万行业来看，电力设备、国防军工、通信等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.93%、1.40%、 1.19%；美容护理、交通运输、农林牧渔等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.05%、0.23%、0.22%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至上午收盘） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） ...

金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 3831.63 | ↑0.61 | | 2860.1 | | | | | | IF2505 | 3817.2 | ↑0.55 | -14.43 | 328.6 | 28654 | ↑45 | 45962 | ↓707 | | IF2506 | 3785 | ↑0.51 | -46.63 | 638.2 | 56105 | ↑8274 | 141994 | ↑3041 | | IF2509 | 3725.8 | ↑0.47 | -105.83 | 136.8 | 12210 | ↑2796 | 58236 | ↑1900 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a comprehensive set of monetary policies to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development in response to external uncertainties [1][2][12]. Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced 10 measures to enhance macroeconomic control, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [4]. - The PBOC will lower the policy interest rate by 0.1%, bringing the 7-day reverse repurchase rate down from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4]. - A 0.25% reduction in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools will be implemented, affecting various special structural tools and re-lending rates [4]. - The personal housing provident fund loan rate will be reduced by 0.25%, with the five-year and above first home loan rate decreasing from 2.85% to 2.6% [4]. - An increase in the re-lending quota for technological innovation and technical transformation from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan will support the implementation of new policies [5]. Financial Regulatory Policies - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced eight incremental policies to enhance the effectiveness of existing policies and support economic recovery [6]. - New financing systems will be introduced to stabilize the real estate market and expand the long-term investment pilot scope for insurance funds [7][8]. - Policies will be developed to support small and private enterprises, as well as to assist businesses affected by tariffs [9][10]. Capital Market Support - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is set to introduce a package of financial policies to stabilize the capital market and enhance investor confidence [12]. - Reforms in public funds will focus on aligning the interests of fund companies with investors, including a performance-based fee structure [12][13]. - The CSRC will revise regulations to support mergers and acquisitions, enhancing the capacity for innovation and risk management in listed companies [13]. Market Performance - On May 7, the A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.80% to 3342.67 points [14]. - Approximately 3300 stocks rose, with significant gains in sectors such as aerospace, shipbuilding, and agriculture [15]. - Analysts suggest that the newly announced financial policies are expected to boost market liquidity and support the transition to high-quality economic development [15].

Market Overview - The military equipment, genetically modified organisms, seed industry, chemical raw materials, and PEEK materials sectors experienced gains, while the film and television, gaming, and Nvidia concept stocks declined [2][3]. - On May 7, all three major stock indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3342.67 points, up 0.8%; the Shenzhen Component Index at 10104.13 points, up 0.22%; and the ChiNext Index at 1996.51 points, up 0.51% [2]. Sector Performance - The military equipment sector rose by 5.33%, with notable stocks like Morningstar Aviation hitting the daily limit and Tongyi Aerospace increasing by over 25% [4]. - The genetically modified organism sector also saw significant gains, with Qiu Le Seed Industry rising by 17% and Kangnong Seed Industry increasing by over 10% [5]. - Conversely, the film and television sector saw widespread declines, with companies like Shanghai Film and Light Media experiencing varying degrees of drop [5]. Capital Flow - Main capital flows showed a net inflow into defense, military, basic chemicals, and banking sectors, while there was a net outflow from computer, electronics, and non-bank financial sectors [6]. - Specific stocks that attracted net inflows included Zongshen Power, AVIC Chengfei, and Chifeng Gold, with inflows of 727 million, 454 million, and 391 million respectively [6]. Institutional Insights - Dongfang Securities noted that significant policy easing is expected, with monetary policy rates accelerating to catch up with actual rates, indicating a stable economic outlook [7]. - Huatai Securities highlighted a recovery in consumer spending during the May Day holiday, with robust growth in various provinces and cities, particularly in tourism and hospitality sectors [7].