本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者谢碧鹭 北京报道 2026年开年以来，全球贵金属市场迎来"开门红"行情，黄金价格势如破竹，带动白银及相关板块同步走 强，成为全球资本市场中最耀眼的主线之一。1月21日，伦敦现货黄金迎来历史性时刻，盘中首次站上 4800美元/盎司整数关口，创下历史新高，1月以来累计涨幅已突破10%，远超同期全球主要股指表现。 值得关注的是，贵金属价格的持续走强，直接传导至A股市场，贵金属板块迎来估值修复与业绩预期双 重驱动的上涨行情。多家上市公司股价大幅攀升，龙头个股表现尤为亮眼，部分企业更是借着行业东风 加速资产整合。 多名分析人士认为，从市场驱动因素来看，本次贵金属上涨并非单一因素作用，而是地缘政治冲突、美 元信用弱化、全球央行购金潮等多重利好共振的结果。短期来看，避险情绪与资金流入仍将为贵金属价 格提供支撑；长期而言，去美元化趋势与全球经济不确定性，正重塑贵金属的资产配置价值。 创近五年同期最强表现 2026年开年，贵金属市场呈现出"黄金领涨、白银跟涨"的强劲态势，价格涨幅与上涨速度均超出市场预 期。 黄金作为核心避险资产，开启了单边上行通道，从年初的4330美元/盎司左右起 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the popular ETF, Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), surging by 3.01% to reach a new historical high, indicating strong investor interest and potential buying signals [1][10]. Fund Performance - Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF recorded a trading volume of 106 million yuan, an increase of 14% compared to the previous period, and saw a net subscription of 18.6 million units, accumulating a total of 635 million yuan over the past ten days [1][10]. Stock Performance - Over 60% of the constituent stocks rose by more than 2%, with notable stocks such as Baiyin Non-Ferrous, Guocheng Mining, Xibu Gold, Hunan Baiyin, and Shengxin Lithium Energy hitting the daily limit [3][12]. - Key stocks like Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining also showed significant gains, with Shandong Gold rising over 6% and Zijin Mining increasing by more than 2% [3][12]. Market Influences - A significant purchase order of 150 tons of gold by the Polish central bank was announced, which will increase Poland's gold reserves to 700 tons, positioning it among the top ten countries globally in terms of gold reserves [4][12]. - International gold prices have surged, with spot gold exceeding $4,800 per ounce, reaching a new historical high, while domestic gold jewelry prices have also surpassed 1,500 yuan per gram [4][12]. Economic and Policy Context - The analysis from Dongwu Futures indicates that precious metals are experiencing upward volatility due to rising geopolitical tensions and potential tariffs imposed by the U.S. on European countries, which are boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals [5][14]. - The Shanghai government has released a plan to enhance the competitiveness of non-ferrous metal commodities, aiming to improve resource allocation and global pricing influence [5][14]. - Analysts from China Galaxy Securities suggest that escalating global geopolitical conflicts may reshape the global metal supply chain, potentially driving up the demand and value of key strategic metals such as copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earth materials [5][14]. ETF Coverage - Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF and its linked funds comprehensively track indices covering copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to various market cycles, including precious metals (safe-haven), strategic metals (growth), and industrial metals (recovery) [6][15].

Market Analysis - The A-share market exhibited a mixed performance with a slight increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, closing at 4116.94 points, up 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.70% to 14255.13 points [2] - The overall market turnover was 2.62 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 6.4% from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in trading activity but still within a historically high range [2] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led the market with a gain of 2.91%, driven by rising international gold prices and geopolitical tensions [5] - The technology sector also performed strongly, with significant increases in GPU, advanced packaging, and circuit board indices, reflecting a robust market sentiment [5] - Conversely, financial and consumer sectors faced downward pressure, with declines in banking, coal, food and beverage, and consumer services stocks [5] Bond Market - The government bond futures market showed a mixed performance, with long-term contracts experiencing significant gains, particularly the 30-year contract which rose by 0.75% [11] - The central bank's net injection of 122.7 billion yuan through reverse repos indicates a continued effort to maintain liquidity in the market [11] Commodity Market - The commodity index increased by 0.40%, with strong performance in new energy metals and precious metals, while real estate-related commodities faced pressure [11] - International gold prices reached a new high, peaking at 4888.43 USD/ounce, reflecting a threefold increase since September 2022 [11] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several key investment themes, including AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and robotics, all supported by government policies and technological advancements [14] - The precious metals sector is expected to benefit from central bank purchases and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while the non-ferrous metals sector remains strong due to supply constraints and a weaker dollar [14][17]

Group 1 - The stock of Xiaocheng Technology reached a new high during trading [1] - Hunan Silver experienced a limit-up increase [1] - Other companies such as Shandong Gold, Chifeng Gold, Zhaojin Gold, Sichuan Gold, and Zhongjin Gold also saw price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with a lack of active trading and low purchasing willingness from downstream manufacturers [1] Price Trends - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 663,900 CNY/ton, down by 1,900 CNY/ton - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium metal is 803,100 CNY/ton, down by 1,700 CNY/ton - The average price of dysprosium oxide is 1,439,200 CNY/ton, down by 5,100 CNY/ton - The average price of terbium oxide is 6,365,000 CNY/ton, down by 18,300 CNY/ton [1] Market Activity - There is limited transaction information for products such as neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, lanthanum cerium oxide, and europium oxide, indicating a cautious market [1] - The praseodymium and neodymium product prices are maintaining a weak and stable trend, with low purchasing intent from downstream magnetic material manufacturers [1] - Overall, the rare earth market is undergoing continuous adjustment, with both ends being relatively cold and lacking effective transaction support [1] Stock Performance - A-share market performance for some rare earth permanent magnet concept stocks on January 21, 2026: - Wolong New Energy (600173): Latest price 7.85 CNY, increase of 9.94%, transaction amount 315 million CNY - Chifeng Gold (600988): Latest price 38.39 CNY, increase of 9.81%, transaction amount 532 million CNY - Zhongmin Resources (002738): Latest price 92.09 CNY, increase of 9.45%, transaction amount 315.5 million CNY - Xiamen Tungsten Industry (600549): Latest price 59.09 CNY, increase of 9.14%, transaction amount 403.1 million CNY - Dehong Shares (603701): Latest price 23.16 CNY, increase of 6.24%, transaction amount 18 million CNY [1]

Group 1 - The international gold market has experienced an unexpected strong rally since the beginning of 2026, with gold prices rising from $4,340 per ounce to a historical peak of $4,891.1 per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of 12.7% in less than 20 days [1] - Domestic gold futures also surged, with the main contract price rising by 4.61% to surpass 1,100 yuan per gram [1] - Gold stocks have seen a significant increase, with over ten gold stocks, including Zhaojin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, hitting the daily limit [2] Group 2 - The gold ETF (159562) rose by 5.73% today, with a cumulative increase of 25.82% over the past 13 trading days, reaching a new historical high [3] - The market is increasingly optimistic about gold prices reaching the previously considered unattainable $5,000 per ounce mark, as institutions frequently adjust their target prices upward [5] Group 3 - The surge in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including geopolitical risks, monetary policy, central bank allocations, and the reconstruction of dollar credit [7] - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. trade actions against Denmark and other countries, have led to a significant influx of safe-haven investments into gold [8] - Denmark's announcement to sell approximately $1 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds marks a significant move in the context of escalating geopolitical tensions [9] Group 4 - Historical data shows a significant upward trend in gold prices during Trump's presidency, with prices rising from approximately $1,204 per ounce at his inauguration in January 2017 to about $4,880 per ounce by January 2026, reflecting a cumulative increase of 78.75% [10] - The acceleration of U.S. debt has raised concerns about the potential risks associated with dollar reserves, prompting central banks globally to increase their gold holdings [12] Group 5 - The global demand for gold bars and coins increased by 18% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 1,250 tons, the highest since 2011 [17] - China's gold market ETF saw a net inflow of approximately 118 billion yuan (about 190 tons) in 2025, accounting for 26.6% of global gold ETF inflows [18] Group 6 - Institutions are increasingly optimistic about the future performance of gold, with several major financial institutions raising their target prices for gold significantly [21] - Goldman Sachs has raised its end-of-2026 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing structural central bank purchases and expected interest rate cuts as key support factors [21] - Domestic institutions also share a positive outlook, with predictions for gold prices to reach around $4,950 to $5,000 per ounce [22]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced an unexpected strong rally since the beginning of 2026, with gold prices reaching historical highs due to various stimulating factors, including geopolitical tensions and monetary policy shifts [2][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - International gold prices surged from $4,340 per ounce at the beginning of January to a peak of $4,891.1 per ounce by January 21, marking a cumulative increase of 12.7% in less than 20 days [2]. - Domestic gold futures also saw significant gains, with the main contract price rising by 4.61% to surpass 1,100 yuan per gram [3]. Group 2: Stock Market Reactions - Gold stocks experienced a surge, with over ten gold-related stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Zhaojin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [4]. - The gold ETF (159562) rose by 5.73% on the day, accumulating a 25.82% increase over the first 13 trading days of the year, reaching a new historical net value high [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts has driven significant inflows into gold as a safe-haven asset, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on several countries, further straining transatlantic trade relations [7][8]. - Denmark's decision to sell approximately $1 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds amid the Greenland dispute marked a significant move, reflecting growing concerns over U.S. debt and geopolitical tensions [9]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks have been on a gold-buying spree, with net purchases reaching 1,136 tons in 2024, the second-highest on record, and major buyers including China, Poland, and Turkey [11]. - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves significantly, with a total of 2,306.32 tons by the end of 2025, marking a historical high in the proportion of gold in its foreign exchange reserves [11]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts have raised their gold price targets, with Goldman Sachs predicting a price of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by central bank purchases and anticipated interest rate cuts [21]. - Other institutions, such as UBS and Citigroup, have set even higher targets, with Citigroup suggesting a potential short-term price of $5,000 per ounce [21][22]. Group 6: Investment Trends - The demand for gold bars and coins increased by 18% in 2025, reaching 1,250 tons, with significant contributions from China [16]. - The global gold ETF market saw a record net inflow of $89 billion in 2025, with total holdings reaching 4,025 tons, marking a historical peak [16]. Group 7: Strategic Value of Gold - The strategic value of gold is being redefined, transitioning from an optional asset to a necessary component in high-uncertainty markets, as recognized by various market participants [22]. - The gold ETF (159562) has become a popular investment tool, with significant inflows and a focus on gold mining companies, reflecting the growing interest in gold as a strategic asset [23].

Group 1: Gold - Financial Attributes and Support from Rate Cuts - Since 2025, international gold prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend, driven by weakened dollar credit, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, continued net purchases of gold by global central banks, and increased demand for safe-haven assets [14][33] - As of January 20, 2026, COMEX gold futures reached $4,764 per ounce, while London spot gold closed at $4,747.80 per ounce, and Shanghai gold prices hit 1,055.99 yuan per gram [15][75] - The financial attributes of gold are regaining strength, with its monetary, investment, and safe-haven properties being influenced by real interest rates, the dollar index, and geopolitical situations [17][75] Group 2: Silver - Industrial Demand and Financial Attributes - Silver's industrial demand is being driven by its unique physical properties, making it essential in solar photovoltaic, automotive, and data center sectors [65][76] - The global silver supply is expected to remain tight due to declining ore grades and increasing production costs, with a projected supply of approximately 32,100 tons and demand of about 35,700 tons in 2025, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [51][52] - As of January 20, 2026, COMEX silver prices reached $94.06 per ounce, reflecting a 216.5% increase since the beginning of 2025, while the gold-silver ratio stood at 50.49 [66][77] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining (601899), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988), Xinyi Silver (000426), Jiangxi Copper (600362), and Shengda Resources (000603) for potential investment opportunities [75][77]

截至收盘，恒生指数报收26585.06点，上涨97.55点，涨幅0.37%。 昨晚，美股市场全线大跌，道指狂跌870点，纳指大跌561点，这也为今日（1月21日）港股表现蒙上阴 影。 不过，港股市场今日下午展开反攻，恒生科技指数涨超1%。 市场热点方面，机器人概念股全线走强。其中，微创机器人-B（HK02252）涨超17%，卧安机器人 （HK06600）涨超10%，优必选（HK09880）涨超4%。 资金方面，截至收盘，南向资金净买入港股超139亿港元。 展望后市： 华泰证券认为，当前推动一季度市场反弹的核心因素并未发生根本性变化，如金融条件整体偏宽松、外 资和南向共振回流、盈利预期上修、AH比价下港股性价比再度凸显等。尤其是考虑到目前市场对港股 后续表现尚未形成共识，一季度延续反弹依然可期，建议重点关注港股布局机会。行业上，现阶段重点 关注AI链（半导体、软件）及创新药。 华西证券预计，未来一段时间港股市场风格和2025年一季度和二季度风格相比出现进一步的转变，仍然 是2025年涨幅偏小、受外围市场影响较小、基本面韧性较好的资产存在一些结构性机会。 恒生科技指数报收5746.30点，上涨62.86点，涨幅1 ...

Group 1 - The metal lead concept increased by 5.01%, leading the sector in gains, with 33 stocks rising, including major players like Dazhong Mining and Guocheng Mining hitting the daily limit [1][2] - Notable stock performances include Chifeng Gold, Shengda Resources, and Zhuhai Group, which rose by 9.81%, 9.58%, and 7.91% respectively [1][2] - The metal lead sector saw a net inflow of 2.988 billion yuan, with 28 stocks receiving net inflows, and 10 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflows, led by Zijin Mining with 822 million yuan [2][3] Group 2 - The top stocks by net inflow ratio include Wolong New Energy, Dazhong Mining, and Guocheng Mining, with net inflow ratios of 50.17%, 26.51%, and 24.91% respectively [3][4] - The leading stocks in the metal lead concept based on net inflow include Zijin Mining, Chifeng Gold, and Yuguang Gold, with respective net inflows of 822 million yuan, 296 million yuan, and 276 million yuan [3][4] - The trading performance of stocks in the metal lead sector shows significant activity, with high turnover rates and notable price increases for several companies [4][5]