背景 11月26日，六部门印发《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》（以下简称《实施方 案》）的通知。到2027年，消费品供给结构明显优化，形成3个万亿级消费领域和10个千亿级消费热 点，打造一批富有文化内涵、享誉全球的高品质消费品；到2030年，供给与消费良性互动，相互促进的 高质量发展格局基本形成，消费对经济增长的贡献率稳步提升。 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，消费行业需要重视"十五五"规划中消费的中长期目标； 短期关注针对2026年消费相关政策。该行对消费行业2026年海外业务的发展持乐观观点。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 2）2024年12月中央经济工作会议将大力提振消费列为2025年经济工作首要任务，此后围绕提振消费的 各类政策不断。2025年3月，《提振消费专项行动方案》部署8大方面30项重点任务；2025年4月，国家 税务总局全面推广境外旅客购物离境退税"即买即退"；2025年9月，《关于释放体育消费潜力进一步推 进体育产业高质量发展的意见》重点提及激发体育消费需求。3）2025年10月，十五五规划建议中将消 费行业置于战略高度，提出"大力提振消费，增强居民消费能力， ...

中国银河证券发表报告表示，昨日国家六部委印发《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施 方案》的通知。该行指内，地消费行业需要重视十五五规划中消费的中长期目标；短期关注针对2026年 消费相关政策。该行对消费行业2026年海外业务的发展持乐观观点。消费个股方面，关注市场风格切换 (高切低)过程中的高分红率优质公司，以及各细分赛道中有阿尔法的公司。 社服板块新消费赛道，该行推荐古茗、大麦娱乐、蜜雪集团；食品饮料板块，推荐东鹏饮料、立高食 品，关注万辰集团、锅圈、农夫山泉等；农业板块推荐中宠股份；纺服板块关注安踏、特步国际、海澜 之家；科技消费推荐TCL电子、海信家电、绿联科技、石头科技；家电高分红率推荐美的集团、海尔智 家；轻工板块推荐永艺股份、奥瑞金，潮玩谷子推荐泡泡玛特。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China & Hong Kong equity market** with a specific outlook for **2026** and investment strategies for **1Q26** [2][5][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Constructive Stance**: The report maintains a positive outlook on MXCN/CSI300, predicting a further rally in 2026 with targets set at **100** for MXCN, **5,200** for CSI300, and **16,000** for MXHK, reflecting growth rates of **15%**, **15%**, and **9%** year-on-year respectively [2][7][8][9]. - **Investment Themes**: Four key investment themes for 2026 are highlighted: 1. **Anti-involution**: Expected to accelerate post-March NPC, improving margins and return on equity (ROE) [5][6]. 2. **AI Infrastructure Growth**: Anticipated growth in global AI infrastructure capex will benefit localization plays in China [5][6]. 3. **Global Macro Support**: Positive macroeconomic conditions, including easing fiscal and monetary policies in developed markets, are expected to boost overseas sales [5][6]. 4. **K-shaped Recovery**: Consumption recovery is expected to favor food & beverage and premium luxury sectors, while mid-tier consumption may suffer [5][6]. Risks Identified - **Geopolitical Tensions**: Ongoing tensions between the US and China, particularly ahead of the US mid-term elections, pose risks to market stability [5][6]. - **Earnings Consensus Risks**: The report notes a potential decline in consensus EPS growth for MXCN from approximately **15%** to **9%** due to intense competition in quick commerce platforms [5][6]. - **Property Market Concerns**: Reports of softening luxury sales and price declines in mainland China may trigger policy changes, including relaxation of home purchase restrictions in prime districts [5][6]. Sector Recommendations - **Overweight (OW)**: Communication Services, IT, Materials, and Staples sectors are recommended for investment [6][11][12]. - **Underweight (UW)**: Energy and Utilities sectors are advised against [6][11][12]. - **Top Picks for 1Q26**: Notable stocks include Baidu, NetEase, Midea, MIXUE, PDD, Pop Mart, Trip.com, Tingyi, Futu, Innovent, CATL, and COLI [6][13][15]. Valuation and Earnings Insights - **Valuation Normalization**: Since September 2024, MXCN/CSI300 has shown a return of **29%/30%** in USD terms, indicating a recovery from previous valuation discounts [20][22]. - **Earnings Growth**: The report highlights a broadening recovery in earnings across various sectors, despite weak headline EPS growth at the index level [42][44]. Additional Important Points - **EPS Revision Trends**: The breadth of EPS revisions has improved significantly, indicating a potential for recovery in earnings [58][59]. - **Market Under-Ownership**: The report emphasizes that China equity remains under-owned both domestically and internationally, suggesting potential for increased allocation [5][6]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China & Hong Kong equity markets.

Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market has experienced a significant surge in activity, with 398 companies applying for listings this year, far exceeding last year's total of 115 [2][6] - The total amount raised through IPOs in Hong Kong has reached 258.275 billion HKD, marking a 259.45% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1][2] - The performance of newly listed stocks has been optimistic, with 63 out of 88 new stocks rising on their first trading day [4] Group 1: IPO Market Overview - As of November 24, 89 new stocks have been listed in Hong Kong this year, with a total fundraising amount of 258.275 billion HKD, representing a 53.45% increase in the number of new listings and a 259.45% increase in fundraising compared to the same period last year [1] - The number of IPO applications submitted this year has reached 398, the highest in nearly a decade, following regulatory changes that have expedited the approval process [2][6] - In the first three quarters of this year, the number of IPOs was 16, 27, and 25, with total fundraising amounts of 18.670 billion HKD, 90.211 billion HKD, and 78.865 billion HKD respectively, showing significant year-on-year growth [3] Group 2: Performance of Newly Listed Companies - Among the 88 new stocks listed this year, 63 saw their prices increase on the first day, with 14 stocks doubling in value, and the highest increase recorded at approximately 330% [4] - The first-day performance of new stocks has been generally positive, with a low initial public offering (IPO) failure rate of 23.86% [4] Group 3: Industry Insights - The top industries attracting investment include industrial engineering, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, and software services, with industrial engineering alone raising 798.18 billion HKD [3] - The "A+H" dual listing model has contributed significantly to the fundraising boom, with 167 companies now listed under this model, including 17 new additions this year [5][6] - The overall valuation of H-shares is generally lower than A-shares, indicating a market sentiment that reflects concerns about pricing and potential for depreciation [6][7]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a rebound on November 25, with all three major indices closing in the green [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) recorded a trading volume exceeding 70 million yuan, with leading stocks including Jinzi Ham, Angel Yeast, and Bailong Chuangyuan showing significant gains [1] - The Tianhong Agriculture ETF (512620) was actively traded, achieving a turnover rate of 5.27% and a trading volume over 20 million yuan, with top-performing stocks including Biological Shares, Roniu Mountain, and Cangge Mining [1] Group 2 - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, focusing on leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, as well as key players in beverages, dairy, and condiments, with top ten weighted stocks including "Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe" [1] - As of November 24, the Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) had a scale of 5.627 billion yuan, ranking first among food and beverage ETFs in Shenzhen [1] - The Tianhong Agriculture ETF (512620) closely follows the CSI Agriculture Index, covering sectors such as breeding and agricultural chemicals, with leading stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Haida Group [1] Group 3 - The Huashu Network announced a public auction for 6,500 tons of domestic frozen pork on November 20, 2025 [2] - Structural opportunities in the food and beverage industry are expected to continue, with new consumption trends and a recovery in traditional consumption [2] - According to Citic Securities, the demand for most consumer goods has experienced a decline over the past two years, but inventory levels are stabilizing, and demand is expected to improve, particularly in dairy and frozen food sectors [2]

编辑丨高梦阳 比库迪更便宜的幸运咖门店数破万家了。 2025年11月24日，幸运咖宣布，其全球门店数量正式突破10000家。从年初的4500余家到突破万店，仅 用了10个多月就实现了门店数翻倍。 幸运咖是蜜雪集团旗下现磨咖啡品牌，主要产品定价在6—8元。作为对比，库迪正在实施全场9.9元。 从门店规模来看，截至三季度末，瑞幸门店数为29214家。库迪最新数据是1.8万家。 另据幸运咖披露，截至目前，幸运咖门店已覆盖全国超300座城市，包括一线、二三线城市及广大下沉 市场。其中，一线市场的门店数已超千家，北京地区门店数达到100家。 需要注意的是，幸运咖的爆发，有着外卖大战推动。在今年二季度，幸运咖新签门店同比增长164%。7 月以来，加盟咨询量环比增长超过300%，且来自一线城市的加盟咨询电话激增。而幸运咖方面认为， 销售爆发也与其主动营销策略有关。 但是，外卖补贴正在退潮。 记者丨贺泓源 韦怡琦 瑞幸执行官郭谨一也在近期的业绩会上提到，随着外卖补贴退潮，瑞幸在第四季度乃至明年的同店销售 额增长指标将面临短期波动与压力。 这或许会影响幸运咖的下一步增长。 亦要看到，随着外卖补贴退潮，咖啡价格战可能会进入更稳定 ...

记者丨贺泓源 韦怡琦 编辑丨高梦阳 比库迪更便宜的幸运咖门店数破万家了。 2025年11月24日，幸运咖宣布，其全球门店数量正式突破10000家。 从年初的4500余家到突 破万店，仅用了10个多月就实现了门店数翻倍。 另据幸运咖披露，截至目前，幸运咖门店已覆盖全国超300座城市，包括一线、二三线城市及 广大下沉市场。其中，一线市场的门店数已超千家，北京地区门店数达到100家。 需要注意的是，幸运咖的爆发，有着外卖大战推动。在今年二季度，幸运咖新签门店同比增长 164%。7月以来，加盟咨询量环比增长超过300%，且来自一线城市的加盟咨询电话激增。而 幸运咖方面认为，销售爆发也与其主动营销策略有关。 但是，外卖补贴正在退潮。 有正在扩张期的咖啡品牌高管告诉21世纪经济报道记者， 7月后，外卖补贴明显收缩。 幸运咖是蜜雪集团旗下现磨咖啡品牌，主要产品定价在6—8元。作为对比，库迪正在实施全场 9.9元。 瑞幸执行官郭谨一也在近期的业绩会上提到，随着外卖补贴退潮，瑞幸在第四季度乃至明年的 同店销售额增长指标将面临短期波动与压力。 从门店规模来看，截至三季度末，瑞幸门店数为29214家。库迪最新数据是1.8万家。 这 ...

Core Insights - Luckin Coffee has officially surpassed 10,000 global stores, becoming the third coffee brand in China to achieve this milestone, following Luckin Coffee and Kudi Coffee [1][11][12] - The rapid expansion of Luckin Coffee is evident as it doubled its store count from over 4,500 at the beginning of the year to over 10,000 in just over 10 months [2][3] Expansion Strategy - Luckin Coffee's aggressive expansion includes a focus on first-tier cities, with a new franchise policy offering two years of fee waivers in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou [3][6][8] - The brand has already opened over 1,000 stores in first-tier cities, with Beijing alone having 100 stores [7] Market Dynamics - The achievement of 10,000 stores indicates a shift in strategy, as Luckin Coffee aims to solidify its presence in both lower-tier and higher-tier markets [10][12] - The coffee market is experiencing a trend where consumer demand is shifting towards high-quality, affordable options, supported by the supply chain of the parent company, Mijue Group [13][15] Competitive Landscape - With the entry of Luckin Coffee into the 10,000-store club, competition in the affordable coffee segment intensifies, with existing players like Luckin and Kudi already established [11][17] - New entrants are also emerging, offering ultra-low prices, which poses a challenge for Luckin Coffee to maintain its market position while expanding [18]

21世纪经济报道记者贺泓源、实习生韦怡琦 比库迪更便宜的幸运咖门店数破万家了。 亦要看到，随着外卖补贴退潮，咖啡价格战可能会进入更稳定的新阶段。 大概方向是，产品价格稳定在某个区间。比如，库迪曾靠着一己之力把咖啡市场拖入9.9元价格战，现 在库迪正坚守在这一区间。可从产品价格上，应该不会再出现2.9元的超低价。 幸运咖会把市场带到6-8元区间吗？客观上，咖啡茶饮赛道，是典型高频消费赛道，产品补贴价格降低 后能催生出大量需求。若瑞幸、库迪们不跟，同行将会迅速占领市场，所以只能迎战。 2025年11月24日，幸运咖宣布，其全球门店数量正式突破10000家。幸运咖是蜜雪集团旗下现磨咖啡品 牌，主要产品定价在6-8元。作为对比，库迪正在实施全场9.9元。 从门店规模来看，截至三季度末，瑞幸门店数为29214家。库迪最新数据是1.8万家。 另据幸运咖披露，截至目前，幸运咖门店已覆盖全国超300座城市，包括一线、二三线城市及广大下沉 市场。其中，一线市场的门店数已超千家，北京地区门店数达到100家。 需要注意的是，幸运咖的爆发，有着外卖大战推动。在今年二季度，幸运咖新签门店同比增长164%。7 月以来，加盟咨询量环比增长 ...

Group 1 - Luckin Coffee has surpassed 10,000 stores globally as of November 24, 2025, with pricing primarily between 6-8 yuan, making it cheaper than its competitor, Kudi, which has a flat price of 9.9 yuan [1][2] - As of the end of Q3, Luckin Coffee operates 29,214 stores, while Kudi has 18,000 stores. Luckin Coffee has expanded to over 300 cities, including more than 1,000 stores in first-tier cities [2] - The rapid growth of Luckin Coffee is attributed to the competitive landscape driven by delivery service wars, with a 164% year-on-year increase in new store openings in Q2 [2] Group 2 - The reduction of delivery subsidies is impacting the coffee market, with Luckin Coffee's same-store sales growth facing short-term pressure as noted by its executives [3][4] - The coffee price war may stabilize as delivery subsidies decrease, with expectations that prices will settle in a certain range, potentially around 6-8 yuan for Luckin Coffee [6][9] - Luckin Coffee's growth trajectory positions it as a strategic competitor to established players like Luckin and Kudi, especially as it reaches a significant scale [8][9]