来源：Y趣理说 2025年的公募基金行业热点频出，但同时在短期内释放业绩、规模与人事信号的霸榜机构，永赢基金显 得尤为突出。 一边是混合型基金规模排名从年初的行业第30位迅速冲进前10；一边是新人基金经理"出道即巅峰"，凭 借重仓AI赛道拿下全市场收益冠军；与此同时，多位老将淡出舞台，员工持股计划落地、股权结构微 调同步推进等。永赢基金，几乎踩中了主动权益最激进的一条增长路径。 这究竟是一次产品与人才的有效重构，还是一场建立在高波动之上的扩张式豪赌，答案远未明朗。 新老更替加速，用赛道换时间？ 如果把永赢基金近两年的投研变化拉长来看，一个趋势非常清晰：经验在让位，赛道在加权。 | 姓名 | 任职日期 | ↑ 任职年限 | | --- | --- | --- | | 陈方圆 | 2025-07-21 | 0.42 | | 张博然 | 2025-07-02 | 0.47 | | 沈平虹 | 2025-01-10 | 0.95 | | 连冰洁 | 2024-12-31 | 0.98 | 这种结构变化，并非偶然，而是一次主动选择。 以任桀为代表的"内部培养型"新人，正是这一策略的缩影。2018年进入公司从事TMT研究 ...

2025 年 12 月 22 日 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 相关研究 1、《双融日报》2025-12-19 2、《双融日报》2025-12-18 3、《双融日报》2025-12-17 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（过热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 81 分，市场情绪处于"过热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：81 分（过热） 最近一年大盘走势 20 25 (%) 沪深300 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：液冷、银行、券商 1、液冷主题：第五届国际 AIDC 液冷产业链千人大会暨全球 数据中心液冷市场趋势研讨会将于 12 月 18 日至 19 日举行。 近年来国际 AI 领域的主要企业正加速转向液冷技术应用。例 如，英伟达在去年发布的 B100 与 H200 芯片上，已正式将散 热方案从传统风冷升级为液冷系统。相关标的：英维克 （002837）、飞龙股份（002536） 2、银行主题：银行股具有高股息特性，如中证银行 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 1.公告基本信息 ■ 注：（1）本基金第十个封闭期为2025年9月25日（含）起至2025年12月24日（含）。根据本基金《基金 合同》和《招募说明书》的相关规定，本基金管理人决定自2025年12月25日（含）起至2026年1月6日 （含）期间的工作日，本基金接受投资者的申购及赎回业务申请。自2026年1月7日（含）起至2026年4 月6日（含）止，为本基金的第十一个封闭期。 （2）封闭期内本基金不办理申购、赎回或其他业务。 2.日常申购、赎回业务的办理时间 本基金以3个月为一个封闭期。本基金第一个封闭期的起始之日为基金合同生效日，结束之日为基金合 同生效日所对应的3个月后月度对日的前一日。第二个封闭期的起始之日为第一个开放期结束之日次 日，结束之日为第二个封闭期起始之日所对应的3个月后月度对日的前一日，依此类推。本基金在封闭 期内不办理申购与赎回业务，也不上市交易。 投资人办理基金份额的申购和赎回的开放日为开放期内的每个工作日，具体办理时间为上海证券交易 所、深圳证券交易所的正常交易日的交易时间，但基金管理人根据法律法规、中国证监会的要求或本基 金合同的规定 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the banking sector, particularly focusing on the acceleration of "reduction and quality improvement" among small and medium-sized banks [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that since July 2023, the Chinese government has accelerated reforms to mitigate risks in high-risk small financial institutions, with over 400 banks approved for mergers, dissolutions, or cancellations in 2025 alone, surpassing the total of the previous three years combined [4]. - The focus of reforms is on high-risk institutions, particularly rural cooperative banks and village banks, which account for 92% of high-risk entities [4]. - The report suggests that the banking sector is expected to see a systemic recovery in valuations in 2026, transitioning from a defensive to a dual-driven growth model, emphasizing both dividends and growth [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The banking sector consists of 42 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1.15 trillion yuan and a circulating market value of about 790 billion yuan [1]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the banking sector over the past month is 5.0%, with a relative performance of 2.8% compared to the benchmark [2]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - Notable banks such as Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and China Merchants Bank are rated as "Recommended" with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating strong future performance [5]. - For instance, Ningbo Bank is projected to have an EPS of 4.33 yuan in 2026 with a PE ratio of 6.64, while Jiangsu Bank is expected to have an EPS of 1.83 yuan with a PE of 5.75 [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests three main investment themes for 2026: 1. State-owned banks and China Merchants Bank as the foundation of national credit and dividends. 2. Quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks with potential for earnings elasticity due to improved interest margins and credit costs. 3. City commercial banks benefiting from regional policies and significant performance release potential [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the banking sector [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a trend of deposit migration from small and medium-sized banks to larger banks, with a notable increase in financial bonds issued by large banks due to capital replenishment needs [2][3] - On the asset side, there is a slowdown in long-term loans from large banks and a significant reduction in short-term loans from small banks, attributed to risk considerations and weak consumer loan demand [4] Summary by Sections 1. November Income and Expenditure Table - Personal deposits decreased by 106.5 billion yuan year-on-year, with demand for both current and fixed-term savings declining [3] - Corporate deposits saw a year-on-year decrease of 49.4 billion yuan, with a notable increase in fixed-term deposits from large banks [3] - Non-bank deposits decreased by 10.6 billion yuan, indicating a trend of residents moving their deposits from small banks to larger banks [3] - Financial bonds increased by 160.4 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by large banks issuing more perpetual bonds and TLAC bonds [3] 2. Asset Side Analysis - Total loans decreased by 421.6 billion yuan year-on-year, with short-term loans seeing a significant reduction of 241.6 billion yuan [4] - Large banks experienced a larger decrease in long-term loans, with a year-on-year reduction of 291.8 billion yuan, influenced by weaker real estate sales [4] - Bond investments increased by 525.3 billion yuan year-on-year, with large banks and small banks growing their bond investments by 159.3 billion yuan and 366 billion yuan respectively [4] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three investment themes: 1. Identifying banks with potential for performance growth, recommending Ningbo Bank and China Merchants Bank [4] 2. Emphasizing banks with convertible bond expectations, recommending Industrial Bank, Chongqing Bank, and Changshu Bank [4] 3. Continuing dividend strategies, recommending Bank of Communications, Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank [4]

Core Insights - The event "ESG: Responsibility for a Sustainable Future" was held in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, where the ESG information disclosure report for listed companies in Zhejiang was officially released [1] - The report indicates that Zhejiang has created a favorable environment for companies to implement ESG practices, aligning with the "Green Mountains and Clear Water are Gold and Silver Mountains" philosophy [1] Group 1: ESG Disclosure Overview - The report focuses on the ESG information disclosure status of 100 listed companies in Zhejiang, analyzing their ESG status, disclosure practices, existing issues, and recommendations [3] - As of November 20, 2025, 82 out of 100 sample companies have published ESG reports, with 47 from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 35 from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [3] - Hangzhou leads in the number of ESG reports disclosed, followed by Ningbo and Shaoxing [3] Group 2: ESG Ratings and Compliance - Nearly 70% of the 82 companies that published ESG reports received an A rating or above from Wind ESG, indicating good overall performance [3] - Among mandatory disclosure entities, 93.3% analyzed important issues, with high disclosure rates in environmental topics like "climate change," social issues like "employees," and governance topics like "stakeholder communication" [3] Group 3: Industry and Regional Disparities - The report highlights significant disparities in ESG report disclosure rates across 11 industries, with finance and energy sectors achieving full disclosure, while sectors like information technology and consumer discretionary only reached around 60% [5] - 12 companies have published ESG reports for 15 years or more, accounting for 14.6%, while the highest proportion, 54.9%, consists of companies that have published for less than 5 years, indicating that ESG reporting in Zhejiang is still in a growth phase [4] Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - The report suggests enhancing ESG compliance supervision and accountability, including implementing responsibility guidelines for boards and decision-makers, and establishing cross-departmental teams for coordinated enforcement [5] - It recommends creating a gradient support system to address regional and industry imbalances, focusing on cities with higher disclosure rates like Hangzhou and Shaoxing as core leading areas [5] - Companies are encouraged to shift from short-term compliance thinking to a long-term value-oriented disclosure approach, integrating ESG disclosures into overall business development [6]

Group 1: Corporate Governance Changes - The six major state-owned banks in China have all abolished their supervisory boards, with Postal Savings Bank being the latest to announce this change, allowing the audit committee of the board to assume the supervisory functions [1] - Other commercial banks, including Huaxia Bank and Beijing Bank, are also in the process of removing their supervisory boards [1] Group 2: Regulatory Investigations - Postal Savings Bank is under self-regulatory investigation for alleged violations during the underwriting of debt financing instruments, which may involve issues like abnormal underwriting fees and price competition [2] Group 3: Deposit Trends - A significant wave of high-interest deposits is set to mature, with an estimated 72 trillion yuan in high-interest deposits maturing by the end of 2025, leading to a potential structural improvement in banks' liability costs [3] - In October, household deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 1.85 trillion yuan in deposits [3] Group 4: Credit Card Issuance Decline - The number of credit cards in China has decreased by 10 million over the past three years, with a total of 7.07 billion credit cards and loan cards issued as of the end of Q3 2023 [4] Group 5: Preferred Stock Redemption - Nine banks have redeemed preferred shares this year, a significant increase compared to only two banks in the previous year, with the largest redemption being 560 billion yuan by Industrial Bank [5] Group 6: Precious Metals Business Adjustments - Banks are increasingly managing risks associated with leveraged precious metals accounts, with recent actions including the termination of agency relationships for long-standing accounts [6] Group 7: Regulatory Penalties - Citic Bank's Chengdu branch was fined 2.3 million yuan for various non-compliant financial practices, while four other branches faced a total fine of 2.5 million yuan [7] Group 8: Insurance Sector Developments - The CEO of Taikang Life, Cheng Kangping, has stepped down after nine years, with Xue Jihua taking over, marking a significant leadership change in the company [8] - Fuzhou Life Insurance has been approved to acquire all insurance business from Jun Kang Life Insurance, indicating consolidation in the insurance sector [8] Group 9: Consumer Finance Updates - Nanyin Fabao Consumer Finance has increased its registered capital to 6 billion yuan, ranking fourth among consumer finance companies in China [9] - Changsha Bank plans to invest up to 1.55 billion yuan in its subsidiary, Hunan Changyin 58 Consumer Finance, to increase its ownership stake [9] Group 10: Financial Technology Changes - Kuaqian Payment's actual controller has changed to Ke Liming, marking a significant shift in ownership away from the Wanda Group [10] - Deyunsheng Microfinance was ordered to rectify issues found during a regulatory inspection, indicating ongoing scrutiny in the microfinance sector [10]

Macro Insights - In November, the US CPI significantly decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 0.3 percentage points to 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%. The core CPI also fell by 0.4 percentage points to 2.6%, below expectations [2] - The month-on-month CPI growth rate dropped to 0.1%, while the core CPI month-on-month growth rate decreased to 0.08%, indicating a low inflation environment [2] Financial Sector Insights - In November 2025, the total issuance of wealth management products reached 2,631, a month-on-month increase of 23.6%. Public fund new issuance amounted to 94.6 billion units, up 31% month-on-month [3] - The new guidelines for performance assessment of fund management companies emphasize long-term performance and increase mandatory co-investment ratios, aligning the interests of fund companies with those of investors [3] - Recommendations include focusing on high-quality stocks, particularly in retail and wealth management sectors, with specific mentions of China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank [3] Company-Specific Insights - Haitian Flavor Industry (603288 CH) announced a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to a minimum of 80% of annual net profit for cash dividends, alongside a special dividend of 3.0 yuan per 10 shares for 2025 [4] - Micron Technology (MU US) reported FY26Q1 revenue of $13.64 billion, a 57% year-on-year increase, exceeding expectations. The adjusted net profit was $5.48 billion, also above forecasts, with a significant increase in gross margin [5] - Aotewei (688516 CH) introduced a stock incentive plan, granting 5.7 million restricted shares, with performance targets set for net profit growth of at least 20% in 2026, 40% in 2027, and 100% in 2028 [6]

Investment Ratings - Banking: Overweight (Maintain) [1] - Securities: Market Weight (Maintain) [1] - Insurance: Overweight (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The financial indices for banks, securities, and insurance showed varied performance, with banks declining by 0.93%, securities increasing by 3.47%, and insurance rising by 15.61% as of December 18, 2025 [9] - The report highlights a trend of increasing social financing, with corporate bonds contributing significantly, while demand for loans from both residents and enterprises remains weak [43] - Regulatory changes in the insurance sector aim to encourage long-term investments and improve the competitive landscape for leading insurance companies [47] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of December 18, 2025, the banking index decreased by 0.93%, while the securities and insurance indices increased by 3.47% and 15.61%, respectively [9] - Xiamen Bank, Zhongyin Securities, and China Ping An were noted for their strong performance, with increases of 5.49%, 12.39%, and 16.99% [9] Valuation Situation - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 0.77, with state-owned banks at 0.83, joint-stock banks at 0.62, city commercial banks at 0.73, and rural commercial banks at 0.65 [20] - The securities sector's PB ratio is at 1.48, indicating potential for valuation recovery [22] Recent Market Indicators - The one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate is 2.0%, with the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3.0% and 3.50%, respectively [27] - The average daily trading volume in A-shares was 17,440.20 billion, reflecting a decrease of 9.91% [33] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the People's Bank of China issued a notice to support green finance for green factory construction [38] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized differentiated development paths for securities firms, encouraging mergers and resource integration for leading firms [45] Company Announcements - China Life reported total premiums exceeding 700 billion as of November 30, 2025 [41] - New China Life announced a 16% year-on-year increase in original premium income as of November 30, 2025 [41] Weekly Insights - The banking sector is advised to focus on regional banks with strong performance and stable earnings, such as Ningbo Bank and Chengdu Bank [44] - The securities sector should consider firms with restructuring potential and strong operational capabilities, including Zheshang Securities and CITIC Securities [46] - The insurance sector is encouraged to invest in companies with strong growth in new business value, such as China Pacific Insurance and Ping An [47]

会议强调，要深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神，认真落实中央经济工作会议和中央金融工作会议 决策部署，深刻认识利率自律管理工作的重要性，认真落实全国市场自律定价机制会议各项工作部署。 进一步提升利率定价能力，规范贷款招投标竞争秩序，落实好存款、贷款利率调整兜底条款相关要求， 扩大明示企业贷款综合融资成本试点范围。以高度的责任感、使命感，为维护市场竞争秩序、畅通货币 政策传导机制、加快建设金融强国作出更大贡献。 北京自律机制成员单位中国农业银行北京市分行、招商银行北京分行、宁波银行北京分行和北京农商银 行作交流发言。全市37家金融机构分管负责同志参加会议。 北京商报讯（记者 刘四红）12月19日，中国人民银行北京市分行发布消息称，为进一步加强利率自律 管理，提升银行自主定价能力，12月16日北京地区市场利率定价自律机制（以下简称"北京自律机制"） 召开全年工作会议。 会议传达了全国市场利率定价自律机制会议精神，总结2025年全市利率工作取得成绩，分析当前经济金 融形势，并部署下一阶段工作。中国人民银行北京市分行党委委员、副行长袁新峰出席会议并讲话。 会议指出，过去一年，北京利率自律管理制度不断完善，自律管理机制 ...