食品饮料行业 超配（维持） 食品饮料行业双周报（2026/01/30-2026/02/12） 预制菜国标公开征求意见，关注春节需求表现 2026 年 02 月 13 日 投资要点： ◼ 风险提示：原材料价格波动、产品提价不及预期、渠道开展不及预期、 行业竞争加剧、食品安全风险、宏观经济波动风险等。 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 周 报 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn ◼ 行情回顾：1月30日-2月12日，SW食品饮料行业指数整体下跌0.95%，板 块涨幅位居申万一级行业第二十四位，跑输同期沪深300指数约0.23个 百分点。细分板块中，多数细分板块跑输沪深300指数。其中，调味品板 块上涨0.64%，板块涨幅最大；其他酒类板块跌幅最大，为6.40%。 ◼ 行业周观点：预制菜国标公开征求意见，关注春节需求表现。白酒板块： 受房地产政策、飞天动销、市场风格切换等因 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a positive trend in the consumer sector, particularly in the food and beverage industry, driven by seasonal consumption patterns related to the upcoming Spring Festival [1][2] - The main consumption index has shown a slight recovery in January 2026, with significant increases in sub-sectors such as prepared foods, snacks, and alcoholic beverages, indicating a strong influence of holiday consumption on market dynamics [1] - The white wine sector is expected to perform better than market expectations during the Spring Festival, with increasing sales momentum as the holiday approaches, supported by resilient consumer spending [1] Group 2 - The consumption ETF managed by Harvest (512600) tracks the major consumer index, which includes leading A-share companies across various sectors, with white wine being the largest segment, accounting for over 38% of the index [2] - Investors can also access the consumption recovery trend through the consumption ETF linked fund (009180), providing an additional avenue for investment in the sector [3]

Core Insights - Coca-Cola's 2025 financial report reveals stagnant global unit case volume despite a 4% price increase, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][4] - The company reported a revenue of $11.82 billion for Q4 2025, falling short of the $12.03 billion market expectation, primarily due to a 65% decline in North American operating income influenced by a $960 million impairment related to the BodyArmor acquisition [4] - The company's strategy of "volume and price growth" has failed, marking the first instance of zero volume growth in a decade [4][5] Financial Performance - Coca-Cola's total revenue for 2025 reached $47.9 billion, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase, with organic revenue growth of 5% [4] - The global unit case volume growth rate was recorded at 0%, with all revenue growth attributed to price increases [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Q4 net revenue dropped by 7% and operating profit fell by 36%, highlighting core business weaknesses [5] Market Challenges - The rise of domestic brands like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage poses significant external pressure on Coca-Cola [6] - Nongfu Spring reported a revenue of 25.62 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 15.6% increase, while Dongpeng Beverage achieved a revenue of 16.84 billion yuan in the first three quarters, growing by 34.13% [7] - The emergence of low-cost snack retail stores is disrupting traditional pricing strategies, complicating Coca-Cola's market positioning [7] Industry Context - The overall fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is experiencing collective anxiety, with the Chinese carbonated beverage market size declining by 2.6% in 2025 [8] - Coca-Cola has invested in upgrading five production bases in China over the past three years, which may support future growth opportunities [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market has become increasingly active in 2026, with insurance capital accelerating its investments in this market, highlighting a trend towards global asset allocation and the pursuit of undervalued quality assets [1][2][6]. Group 1: Insurance Capital Participation - Since January 2026, insurance capital has participated in cornerstone subscriptions for 10 Hong Kong IPOs, with a total subscription amount of HKD 1.558 billion [1][6]. - In 2025, insurance capital participated in cornerstone subscriptions for 12 Hong Kong IPOs, amounting to HKD 2.620 billion [1][6]. - Key cornerstone investors in recent IPOs include Ping An Life and Taikang Life, with significant allocations in companies like Muyuan Foods and Dongpeng Beverage [2][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Preferences - The low interest rate environment has made the Hong Kong market a primary avenue for insurance capital's global asset allocation, with many undervalued quality assets available [2][6]. - Companies listed in both A-shares and H-shares often have H-shares priced at a discount compared to A-shares, making them attractive for insurance capital seeking better valuations and higher dividend yields [2][6]. - Insurance capital is increasingly focusing on "hard technology" and new consumption sectors, with some projects experiencing competitive bidding [3][7]. Group 3: Performance and Tax Advantages - The Hong Kong capital market regained the top position globally for IPO fundraising in 2025, raising USD 37.4 billion, surpassing the total of the previous three years [3][7]. - Newly listed stocks have performed well, with an average first-day increase of 23.8% and a cumulative first-month increase of 30.7%, particularly in the biotech and healthcare sectors [3][7]. - Insurance companies benefit from tax advantages in Hong Kong, as they can avoid corporate income tax on dividends from H-shares held for over 12 months, enhancing their net returns compared to individual investors [8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the food and beverage industry Core Insights - The pre-prepared food industry is set to enter a new phase of standardized development with the introduction of the first national standard in 2026, which will clarify definitions and enhance food safety and traceability [3] - The beverage market is experiencing significant growth in various segments, with several products achieving sales exceeding 10 billion, driven by consumer preferences for low-sugar and functional beverages [5] - The competition in the milk tea market is intensifying, with small shops needing to adopt refined operations and digital tools to enhance customer loyalty and reduce costs [4] - The trend of regional cultural co-branded beverages is rising, but sustainability is challenged by product homogenization and shallow cultural exploration [6] - The coffee and bottled milk tea markets are facing potential disruption from new low-sugar products launched by major brands, indicating a shift in market dynamics [7] Industry Trends - The pre-prepared food industry is projected to reach a market size of over 600 billion by 2026, driven by health-conscious consumer demands and technological advancements [9] - The beverage industry is shifting towards health-oriented products, with a focus on transparency in ingredients and functional benefits [12] - The global health market is valued at nearly 9 trillion, with a growing emphasis on functional foods targeting gut health, weight management, and cognitive needs [14] Brand Dynamics - The report highlights the challenges faced by companies like Huangshi Group, which has struggled with diversification and is attempting to refocus on its core dairy business [15] - Junlebao is navigating a competitive low-temperature milk market while planning for an IPO, facing pressure from established giants [16] - Nova Coffee has rapidly expanded its store count through a light-asset model, but must address quality consistency and supply chain challenges [17] - The report notes the success of brands like Xi Wang in the sports drink market, emphasizing the importance of precise marketing strategies and product innovation [20]

今年，基石投资者结构中不仅有国内百亿级私募和险资巨头，还有大量全球顶级资产管理机构的名 字。部分企业如东鹏饮料、澜起科技、壁仞科技等，其基石投资者阵容中不乏国际长线基金的身影。例 如，东鹏饮料在2月3日上市时，在其15家基石投资者中，就包含卡塔尔投资局（QIA）、贝莱德 （BlackRock）、淡马锡（Temasek）、摩根大通、瑞银等来自美国、中东、欧洲、亚洲各地的长线资金 身影。 瑞银集团中国区总裁及瑞银证券董事长胡知鸷表示，国际投资者在去年就已经完成了从观望到继续 参与的转折。"我们看到的不仅是兴趣的回归，更是行为上的变化。外资正从此前相对被动的状态，转 向主动且偏向长期标的选择的交易状态。因此，在港股IPO等项目中，国际长线资金作为基石投资者的 参与度明显提高。" 在胡知鸷看来，这背后的逻辑并不复杂。一方面，中国企业在技术创新上取得了显著进展，全球竞 争力提升；另一方面，从全球配置的角度看，中国资产的估值和成长潜力为国际投资者提供了分散风险 的重要选择。 市场定价能力提升 2月11日，随着上市锣声的再次敲响，A股新能源智能装备企业——先导智能成功在香港联合交易 所主板挂牌上市，成为澜起科技、爱芯元智、 ...

消费企业扎堆赴港IPO。 2026年开年之后，港股市场的消费热潮再次升温。继2025年新茶饮、餐饮企业扎堆赴港上市后，今年初 鸣鸣很忙、东鹏饮料等细分赛道头部企业又组团登陆港股，钱大妈、袁记食品、君乐宝这些知名消费企 业也纷纷递交招股书，港股消费赛道再度变得热闹拥挤。据证券时报记者统计，2026年开年至今，已有 超10家消费类企业首次披露H股招股材料，数量相较2025年同期有明显增加。 但不难发现，2025年以来上市的消费企业，股价表现分化明显，这背后也反映出市场正重新审视消费企 业的真实价值。有受访人士认为，看似消费市场整体偏低迷的当下，一批消费巨头企业选择逆市赴港上 市，既是多重因素共同作用下的选择，也预示着资本市场的投资逻辑正朝着长期主义转变。 三大因素推动消费企业港股IPO 近日，东鹏饮料正式登陆港交所主板，募资总额达101亿港元，一举创下亚洲饮料行业的募资纪录。而 鸣鸣很忙的IPO也掀起资本市场热议，从招股文件来看，此次发行吸引了8家基石投资者参与，认购总 额约1.95亿美元，折合约15.2亿港元。 消费企业赴港上市的热度还在持续攀升：年营收近200亿元的乳业龙头君乐宝，已于1月19日向港交所递 表 ...

三大因素推动消费企业港股IPO 近日，东鹏饮料正式登陆港交所主板，募资总额达101亿港元，一举创下亚洲饮料行业的募资纪录。而鸣鸣很忙的IPO也掀起资本市场热议，从招股文件 来看，此次发行吸引了8家基石投资者参与，认购总额约1.95亿美元，折合约15.2亿港元。 消费企业赴港上市的热度还在持续攀升：年营收近200亿元的乳业龙头君乐宝，已于1月19日向港交所递表；社区生鲜连锁钱大妈、手工水饺品牌袁记食品 也紧随其后，背后还有腾讯投资、红杉中国等知名机构加持。除此之外，比格餐饮、金星啤酒、百川名品等各细分赛道的龙头企业，也纷纷加入赴港上市 的排队行列，覆盖食品饮料、餐饮连锁、社区零售等多个领域，催生出一波前所未有的消费企业赴港上市潮。 这波扎堆赴港上市的现象也让不少人产生疑问：为何消费企业突然集体选择登陆港股？其实这并非偶然，而是多重因素共同作用的结果。在业内人士眼 中，当下消费企业赴港上市，并非可选的"选择题"，而是"最优解"。 金鼎资本投资总监叶欣文在接受记者采访时从三个方面剖析了消费企业趋赴港股市场的背后动因。她指出，首要原因是近年来A股对消费连锁业态的审核 趋于严格，企业上市排队周期长，且对盈利持续性与合规 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage is implementing a strategy for overseas market promotion that combines domestic successful models with localized adaptations, focusing on digital operations and precise channel coverage [1] Group 1 - The company is currently in the stage of laying the groundwork for its overseas market, with a precise promotion system being iteratively advanced as planned [1] - Dongpeng Beverage aims to optimize its promotion strategies and resource allocation steadily according to the development stages of each market [1] - The company is committed to strengthening its market foundation to support long-term expansion in overseas business [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage is leveraging digitalization, targeted demographics, and scenario penetration to build an efficient marketing system [1] Group 1: Digitalization and Marketing Strategy - The company utilizes digital tools such as one-code and five-code associations to analyze market preferences and identify high-potential markets, allowing for precise allocation of marketing resources [1] - Dongpeng Beverage focuses on core consumption scenarios for different beverages, such as energy drinks targeting factories, campuses, and gas stations, enhancing brand reach through standardized displays and scenario-based activities [1] - The integration of online and offline strategies is employed to strengthen consumer awareness, continuously improving sales effectiveness and brand penetration [1]